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Week 3

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
Sides: 7-7 -1.40u
ML: 6-6 +1.55u
Totals: 1-2 -1.18u
Teasers: 4-4 -0.10u
Parlays: 3-8 -4.475u
Overall: 21-27 -5.875u


Man I'm a dumbass. Threw away a positive week even though I lost my 2 and 3 unit plays by losing all 8 parlays. Dropped a little over 7 units last week because of it. Stupid and dumb and will limit those for sure. In a hole early but plenty of season to dig out. Bring on week 3..........


Sides


Giants -4 (1.1/1)
Hold your nose here. I know I know, I'm crazy for layin 4 with the Gmen here. It's more of not being sold just yet on the Redskins being decent and the Giants will figure out the 4th quarter brain farts. The Giants could/should be 2-0 and gave both games away. My Skins have surprised a little so far but I don't think they're gonna sneak up on the Giants here. They had a favorable spot I missed last week with the Rams and Kirk played about as good as he could be asked. The Skins have controlled the lines pretty well and their stats look pretty decent so far. But this is the NFL and it's the Redskins we're talking about here. It may be a must win for the Giants but every game is a must win for Washington so there goes that. Eli had both Romo and Ryan beat and Cousins isn't even close to their caliber nor should the Skins be mentioned in the same sentence with Dallas or Atlanta for that matter IMO. They do look improved but let me remind you of last year. Cousins beats the Jags 41-10 and looked good doin it. The next week lost a shootout on the road to the Eagles and threw for 427 and 3 scores in that one. Posting QB ratings over 100 in each game and completing over 60% of his passes with only 1 turnover. Not bad right? Feeling pretty good with him under center. Just like the feeling we're hearing now. Even though he had 2 picks against Mia he kept them in the game, then beat a Rams team that beat the Seahawks the week before. He hit 23 of 27, didn't turn it over, and had a rating over 100 again. Feeling good about Kirk in DC now are we? Well last year after Jax and Phi he went on the following week and only hit 19 of 33 and threw 4 picks in a 45-14 beatdown, on the road, on a Thursday night, against who? Oh yeah, against the Giants. Now we're feeling good about Kirk and what he's doin, controlling the LOS, improved D, Giants suck, shooting themselves in the foot, etc etc. Don't get me wrong I want so bad to believe as a Skins fan. I just don't think they're what we saw last week and I'll even give a little bit of a pass for Mia week 1 on the road. Win this game and maybe I'll start to shift my thinking. I'm sticking to my preseason thining that the Redskins are the bottom of the East and will struggle on the road. And it seems the Giants have their number. The Skins have looked much better than the Giants so far yet you can get the Skins and 4 pts and almost 2:1 SU. Hhhmmm. Fell like I've seen this movie before and know how this one ends........NY 31 WASH 17

Colts -3 (1.875/1.5)Luck and co. haven't looked good at all to start the year. They've been sloppy and turned the ball over way too much. Penalties and turnovers are killing them to this point but those kind of things are correctable. They'll get on track at some point and I can see no better time than against the AFC South which they've owned lately. I don't think Tennessee is capable of getting the same kind of pressure Luck has seen the past couple of weeks. The Colts receivers should be able to get open against the Titan secondary and if JFF can burn them what will Luck do when he finally gets some time to scan a defense for the first time this year. Tennessee banged up along the OLine as well so this feels like a 'get better' game for Luck......IND 34 TEN 14

Bills +3 (1.725/1.5)

Rex got served a pretty big helping of crow last week. Hope he had plenty of salt and pepper. Now they go on the road and play another big division game. I expect the Bills D to look better this week as the Dolphins O isn't near what they just faced in NE and I'm sure the Bills D will hear all about that ugly performance last week and want to make that right. I'm not overly impressed with they Phins O just yet and think the Bills DLine should be able to dictate the pace. Defense travels and I expect them to give Taylor a chance late in the 4th. Huge comeback effort only to come up short a little against the Pats a bit of a concern but I like what Taylor brings and Rex wants to get back to ground and pound. They should be able to control both sides of the line and I'll call for them to get a big road wins.....BUF 24 MIA 20

Broncos -3 (1.6/1.5)
Stafford banged up and it's not gonna feel good if he's in there taking a beating from this Bronco defense. I've been on the Lions both weeks so far and I just don't like what I've seen from them. The Bronco D is legit and has been the reason the Broncos are 2-0 really. Peyton has been the staple and he showed last week that when called upon he can still deliver no matter how ugly it may look. He'll be in the dome this week so no weather to worry about but there's always questions about the arm strength. They want to run the ball and the run game should start to come around in the next couple of weeks with the change in scheme. They're more than capable and the Lion run D could be just what the doctor ordered to give that a jump start for sure. Bronco front 7 should pressure all day long and I think the run game gets on track this week. Don't like the fact that I'm backing yet another road team but I guess it is what it is....DEN 27 DET 17

ML

Giants ML -165 (4.125/2.5)
Bills ML +130 (1/1.3)
Bengals +100 (1/1)


Totals

Falcons/Cowboys u44 (1.1/1)

Teasers

3T 7PT: Bengals +8.5/Cowboys +8/Bills +8.5 (1.09/1.35)
4T 13PT: Patriots pk/Bengals +15.5/Seahawks -1.5/
Bills +15.5 (1.3/1)
4T 13PT: Patriots pk/Steelers +12/Chargers +15.5/Seahawks -1.5 (1.3/1)



Parlays
Giants ML/Cardinals ML (1.5/1.52)
Broncos ML/Packers ML (1.5/1.64)
Jets ML/Colts ML (1/1.51)
Patriots ML/Cardinals ML/Seahawks ML/Broncos ML/Packers ML (.5/1.21)

:shake: GL FELLAS :shake:​
 
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So looks like I'm stuck with a bad number ATS but also think it's bottomed out as well. Don't think it matters anyway. Giants did have a 10pt lead in the 4th qtr in both games so far this year to a team that many liked to win the East and a team that looks like may be more improved than most thought. Think that's worth something especially playing a team that won 2 home games against a Miami team that might not be quite what everyone was predicting and a Rams team that was in a classic let down spot that I overlooked. The Redskins are not a good team as much improved as people are now talking them up to be. Kirk played pretty much a perfect game which is what he'll need to do for them to win. Problem is he's too inconsistent. Yeah the D may be improved somewhat (still has holes IMO) and the run game looks to be legit at this point but if they're down 10+ they won't be able to rely on that run game. And I just don't think Kirk is the guy to put a game on his shoulders and carry the team to a W if/when other teams make him beat them. Now the Skins play their first game on the road, on a short week, against someone who seems to always beat you, and is now starting to somewhat have expectations of something they're not. Just don't see the Gmen dropping this game no matter how bad they've looked or screwed the pooch in the 4Q so far. So since the line is as low as I think it'll go.........

Add:
Giants ML -165 (4.125/2.5)
 
Couple Teaser adds:

4T 13PT: Patriots pk/Bengals +15.5/Seahawks -1.5/Bills +15.5 (1.3/1)
4T 13PT: Patriots pk/Steelers +12/Chargers +15.5/Seahawks -1.5 (1.3/1)
 
Adds:

Colts -3 (1.875/1.5)
Bills +3 (1.725/1.5)
Broncos -3 (1.6/1.5)

Bills ML +130 (1/1.3)

Falcons/Cowboys u44 (1.1/1)

Broncos ML/Packers ML (1.5/1.64)
Patriots ML/Cardinals ML/Seahawks ML/Broncos ML/Packers ML (.5/1.21)
 
Contemplating a few others still: Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, Bucs.

Might tease a couple of them rather than play em straight. Should prolly just call it a week but what's the fun in that...
 
Couple More:

Bengals ML +100 (1/1)

3T 7PT: Bengals +8.5/Cowboys +8/Bills +8.5 (1.09/1.35)

Jets ML/Colts ML (1/1.51)

Should do it
 
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