Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Although I felt pretty good about most of my plays, the write ups went 6-7, but that included a loss on Texas Tech as a result of that ridiculous late pick 6. I really wish the Oregon linebacker would have been called for targeting rather than just unnecessary roughness on that final Texas Tech drive so he would have missed the first half of this week's game because that idiot didn't just get down. I also failed to cover by a half point in a game that Hugh Freeze admitted was as bad an offensive performance that any of his teams have ever had. An F- performance, and they were a half point from covering. D+ gets us an easy cover I guess? Whatever. Year long total now sits at 13-10.
This is a weak card in terms of ranked teams playing each other, but there's still some interesting games to handicap. Next week looks awesome though, so we've got that to look forward to.
I wanted to give a couple thoughts on Illinois/Penn State. Like I've mentioned, the only time you'll see a position on the Illini here is when I go against them. I'm a homer, so I'll never jinx them by betting on them, but I'll give you my thoughts if i think they are helpful. They are 14 point dogs to Penn State this week, and based on the results of the two teams, that seems about right. One point I would make however, is that Illinois 1-1 record and their unseemly defensive numbers are due of course to some ragged play, but it's mostly due to the schedule. I can guarantee you that there are tons of power 5 squads who currently sit at 2-0 that if they began their seasons with Toledo and @Kansas on a short week would be in the exact same position as Illinois. I'd go so far as to say that more than half of the Big Ten would be 0-2. If you told Iowa they had to trade playing Cooper Legas and Rocco Becht in the first 2 weeks with Dequan Finn and Jalon Daniels, I'm pretty sure they would take a pass on that. Look around the country and look at who some of these teams have played in the first two weeks. As a result of Illinois numbers thus far, I'm sure a lot of cappers are looking to lay it with Penn State. They might be right, but this will be the first traditional offense that Illinois has played, which I'm guessing, believe it or not, they might be happy about. In addition, they are getting a couple of key guys back on defense this week. I can usually pick out bad spots for the Illini(like last week) but I don't see it as being one this week, despite how good Penn State is all over their roster. This is by no means an endorsement of Illinois +14/14.5, but I'm not rushing to lay it if that helps anyone.
Maryland -14 WIN
@Old Dominion +14 WIN
UMass +7.5 WIN
@Rutgers -6.5 WIN
East Carolina +8 LOSS
Duke -17 WIN
Iowa -28 WIN
Florida +6 WIN
Oklahoma State -7 LOSS
Georgia Tech +18 LOSS
Miami(OH) +14 WIN
Northern Illinois +13 LOSS
BYU +8 WIN
Fla Atlantic +25 LOSS
Houston +7.5 LOSS
Kansas -28 LOSS
9-7
1. @Maryland -14 v Virginia(Friday): No weeknight moratorium yet! I lost last week fading Tony Elliott and the Wahoos, but I'm going back there again because I doubt they'll making a habit of beating me, and there was a lot of luck involved in that cover. Virginia played what was for them a fantastic game, showing quite a bit of resolve and moxie, yet still lost at home to JMU, a Sun Belt team. Now since they were a 6 point home dog, they exceeded expectations, but what had to happen in order to do that? First of all, their TRUE FRESHMAN QB, Anthony Colandrea averaged 11.9 yards per attempt on the way to a 300+ yard passing performance, aided by a 75 yard screen pass and 2 60+ yard busted coverages by JMU. Colandrea will now try to build on that while making his first road start as a true freshman. What could go wrong? I mean, he's got that tricky Clemson offensive scheme to lean on, right? Also, good luck to UVA in their attempts to run it, as they netted 18 yards rushing last week on 32 carries. This UVA offense is likely to be 100% reliant on a true freshman trying to navigate the same offense that turned Brennan Armstrong from a stud college QB into a future insurance salesman. Defensively, Maryland returns all of their back 7, but none of the DL. That's fine this week, because it you're going to be learning on the defensive line, at least it's against a run game that can't bust a grape. Defensively, Virginia is putrid, especially against the run, so Terps RB Roman Hemby should have his way in this one, even if Talia Tagovailoa for whatever reason struggles to get going. Mike Locksley is 9-3 ATS in the non-conference since he's been at Maryland(and off a loss last week) and Tony Elliottt is 1-4 ATS in non-conference(and off his only win last wek). I think both teams get back to their usual lot in life this week. These two teams are border neighbors, so I'm sure Locksley will want bury the Cavs to leave no doubt in recruiting. I don't see this as a sleepy game for the Terps.
****Epilogue: UVA actually looked much better than expected, but their insistence on falling apart and MD's explosiveness helped this one along. True freshman QB on the road angle didn't hurt either. He's pretty good.
This is a weak card in terms of ranked teams playing each other, but there's still some interesting games to handicap. Next week looks awesome though, so we've got that to look forward to.
I wanted to give a couple thoughts on Illinois/Penn State. Like I've mentioned, the only time you'll see a position on the Illini here is when I go against them. I'm a homer, so I'll never jinx them by betting on them, but I'll give you my thoughts if i think they are helpful. They are 14 point dogs to Penn State this week, and based on the results of the two teams, that seems about right. One point I would make however, is that Illinois 1-1 record and their unseemly defensive numbers are due of course to some ragged play, but it's mostly due to the schedule. I can guarantee you that there are tons of power 5 squads who currently sit at 2-0 that if they began their seasons with Toledo and @Kansas on a short week would be in the exact same position as Illinois. I'd go so far as to say that more than half of the Big Ten would be 0-2. If you told Iowa they had to trade playing Cooper Legas and Rocco Becht in the first 2 weeks with Dequan Finn and Jalon Daniels, I'm pretty sure they would take a pass on that. Look around the country and look at who some of these teams have played in the first two weeks. As a result of Illinois numbers thus far, I'm sure a lot of cappers are looking to lay it with Penn State. They might be right, but this will be the first traditional offense that Illinois has played, which I'm guessing, believe it or not, they might be happy about. In addition, they are getting a couple of key guys back on defense this week. I can usually pick out bad spots for the Illini(like last week) but I don't see it as being one this week, despite how good Penn State is all over their roster. This is by no means an endorsement of Illinois +14/14.5, but I'm not rushing to lay it if that helps anyone.
Maryland -14 WIN
@Old Dominion +14 WIN
UMass +7.5 WIN
@Rutgers -6.5 WIN
East Carolina +8 LOSS
Duke -17 WIN
Iowa -28 WIN
Florida +6 WIN
Oklahoma State -7 LOSS
Georgia Tech +18 LOSS
Miami(OH) +14 WIN
Northern Illinois +13 LOSS
BYU +8 WIN
Fla Atlantic +25 LOSS
Houston +7.5 LOSS
Kansas -28 LOSS
9-7
1. @Maryland -14 v Virginia(Friday): No weeknight moratorium yet! I lost last week fading Tony Elliott and the Wahoos, but I'm going back there again because I doubt they'll making a habit of beating me, and there was a lot of luck involved in that cover. Virginia played what was for them a fantastic game, showing quite a bit of resolve and moxie, yet still lost at home to JMU, a Sun Belt team. Now since they were a 6 point home dog, they exceeded expectations, but what had to happen in order to do that? First of all, their TRUE FRESHMAN QB, Anthony Colandrea averaged 11.9 yards per attempt on the way to a 300+ yard passing performance, aided by a 75 yard screen pass and 2 60+ yard busted coverages by JMU. Colandrea will now try to build on that while making his first road start as a true freshman. What could go wrong? I mean, he's got that tricky Clemson offensive scheme to lean on, right? Also, good luck to UVA in their attempts to run it, as they netted 18 yards rushing last week on 32 carries. This UVA offense is likely to be 100% reliant on a true freshman trying to navigate the same offense that turned Brennan Armstrong from a stud college QB into a future insurance salesman. Defensively, Maryland returns all of their back 7, but none of the DL. That's fine this week, because it you're going to be learning on the defensive line, at least it's against a run game that can't bust a grape. Defensively, Virginia is putrid, especially against the run, so Terps RB Roman Hemby should have his way in this one, even if Talia Tagovailoa for whatever reason struggles to get going. Mike Locksley is 9-3 ATS in the non-conference since he's been at Maryland(and off a loss last week) and Tony Elliottt is 1-4 ATS in non-conference(and off his only win last wek). I think both teams get back to their usual lot in life this week. These two teams are border neighbors, so I'm sure Locksley will want bury the Cavs to leave no doubt in recruiting. I don't see this as a sleepy game for the Terps.
****Epilogue: UVA actually looked much better than expected, but their insistence on falling apart and MD's explosiveness helped this one along. True freshman QB on the road angle didn't hurt either. He's pretty good.
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