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Week 3 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Although I felt pretty good about most of my plays, the write ups went 6-7, but that included a loss on Texas Tech as a result of that ridiculous late pick 6. I really wish the Oregon linebacker would have been called for targeting rather than just unnecessary roughness on that final Texas Tech drive so he would have missed the first half of this week's game because that idiot didn't just get down. I also failed to cover by a half point in a game that Hugh Freeze admitted was as bad an offensive performance that any of his teams have ever had. An F- performance, and they were a half point from covering. D+ gets us an easy cover I guess? Whatever. Year long total now sits at 13-10.

This is a weak card in terms of ranked teams playing each other, but there's still some interesting games to handicap. Next week looks awesome though, so we've got that to look forward to.

I wanted to give a couple thoughts on Illinois/Penn State. Like I've mentioned, the only time you'll see a position on the Illini here is when I go against them. I'm a homer, so I'll never jinx them by betting on them, but I'll give you my thoughts if i think they are helpful. They are 14 point dogs to Penn State this week, and based on the results of the two teams, that seems about right. One point I would make however, is that Illinois 1-1 record and their unseemly defensive numbers are due of course to some ragged play, but it's mostly due to the schedule. I can guarantee you that there are tons of power 5 squads who currently sit at 2-0 that if they began their seasons with Toledo and @Kansas on a short week would be in the exact same position as Illinois. I'd go so far as to say that more than half of the Big Ten would be 0-2. If you told Iowa they had to trade playing Cooper Legas and Rocco Becht in the first 2 weeks with Dequan Finn and Jalon Daniels, I'm pretty sure they would take a pass on that. Look around the country and look at who some of these teams have played in the first two weeks. As a result of Illinois numbers thus far, I'm sure a lot of cappers are looking to lay it with Penn State. They might be right, but this will be the first traditional offense that Illinois has played, which I'm guessing, believe it or not, they might be happy about. In addition, they are getting a couple of key guys back on defense this week. I can usually pick out bad spots for the Illini(like last week) but I don't see it as being one this week, despite how good Penn State is all over their roster. This is by no means an endorsement of Illinois +14/14.5, but I'm not rushing to lay it if that helps anyone.

Maryland -14 WIN
@Old Dominion +14 WIN
UMass +7.5 WIN
@Rutgers -6.5 WIN
East Carolina +8 LOSS
Duke -17 WIN
Iowa -28 WIN
Florida +6 WIN
Oklahoma State -7 LOSS
Georgia Tech +18 LOSS
Miami(OH) +14 WIN
Northern Illinois +13 LOSS
BYU +8 WIN
Fla Atlantic +25 LOSS
Houston +7.5 LOSS
Kansas -28 LOSS


9-7

1. @Maryland -14 v Virginia(Friday): No weeknight moratorium yet! I lost last week fading Tony Elliott and the Wahoos, but I'm going back there again because I doubt they'll making a habit of beating me, and there was a lot of luck involved in that cover. Virginia played what was for them a fantastic game, showing quite a bit of resolve and moxie, yet still lost at home to JMU, a Sun Belt team. Now since they were a 6 point home dog, they exceeded expectations, but what had to happen in order to do that? First of all, their TRUE FRESHMAN QB, Anthony Colandrea averaged 11.9 yards per attempt on the way to a 300+ yard passing performance, aided by a 75 yard screen pass and 2 60+ yard busted coverages by JMU. Colandrea will now try to build on that while making his first road start as a true freshman. What could go wrong? I mean, he's got that tricky Clemson offensive scheme to lean on, right? Also, good luck to UVA in their attempts to run it, as they netted 18 yards rushing last week on 32 carries. This UVA offense is likely to be 100% reliant on a true freshman trying to navigate the same offense that turned Brennan Armstrong from a stud college QB into a future insurance salesman. Defensively, Maryland returns all of their back 7, but none of the DL. That's fine this week, because it you're going to be learning on the defensive line, at least it's against a run game that can't bust a grape. Defensively, Virginia is putrid, especially against the run, so Terps RB Roman Hemby should have his way in this one, even if Talia Tagovailoa for whatever reason struggles to get going. Mike Locksley is 9-3 ATS in the non-conference since he's been at Maryland(and off a loss last week) and Tony Elliottt is 1-4 ATS in non-conference(and off his only win last wek). I think both teams get back to their usual lot in life this week. These two teams are border neighbors, so I'm sure Locksley will want bury the Cavs to leave no doubt in recruiting. I don't see this as a sleepy game for the Terps.

****Epilogue: UVA actually looked much better than expected, but their insistence on falling apart and MD's explosiveness helped this one along. True freshman QB on the road angle didn't hurt either. He's pretty good.
 
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2. @Old Dominion +14 v Wake Forest: ODU looks like one of those teams that nobody was expecting much from at the begining of the season, but ends up being surprisingly competent. The opened up with a 19 point loss to Virginia Tech, which is actually a bit concerning, since I certainly don't think much of the Hokies, but a closer look at the box score shows some good signs. Virginia Tech couldn't run on them, as their RBs carried 31 times for 82 yards. They also got a bit unlucky as usually turnover prone Grant Wells had a bunch of his misfired ducks fall incomplete rather than picked off like usual. Also, ODU's top receiver last year, Ali Jennings transferred to VT and was most of their offense, catching 5 balls for 72 yards and 2 TDs. Last week the Monarchs came home and played very well in a win against LaLa, who most have pegged in the top 3 over in the Sun Belt West. They had an edge in the running game in that one as well. So far this year, not a single running back carry has gone for a loss for ODU, and I don't think Wake is the kind of defense to impose their will either. Wake had a nice win over Vandy at home, but they were torched through the air and got a defensive score and a 3-0 turnover edge to make that one look more comfortable than it was. I generally like Clawson, but this isn't a good role for his teams(5-10 as road chalk) and they aren't the type of physical bunch that is capable of strong arming ODU right off the field. ODU has knocked off ACC teams at home before(VT twice, once when they were ranked 15th), so I don't think that's out of the question. It's the first road start for Mitch Griffis at QB for Wake...I just see this one as being a pretty tough game for the Deacs in a role they typically don't do well in.

Wake was napping in the first half and we got an inspired effort from the ODU defense for long enough to cover. Wake as a road fave not ideal for them.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
2. @Old Dominion +14 v Wake Forest: ODU looks like one of those teams that nobody was expecting much from at the begining of the season, but ends up being surprisingly competent. The opened up with a 19 point loss to Virginia Tech, which is actually a bit concerning, since I certainly don't think much of the Hokies, but a closer look at the box score shows some good signs. Virginia Tech couldn't run on them, as their RBs carried 31 times for 82 yards. They also got a bit unlucky as usually turnover prone Grant Wells had a bunch of his misfired ducks fall incomplete rather than picked off like usual. Also, ODU's top receiver last year, Ali Jennings transferred to VT and was most of their offense, catching 5 balls for 72 yards and 2 TDs. Last week the Monarchs came home and played very well in a win against LaLa, who most have pegged in the top 3 over in the Sun Belt West. They had an edge in the running game in that one as well. So far this year, not a single running back carry has gone for a loss for ODU, and I don't think Wake is the kind of defense to impose their will either. Wake had a nice win over Vandy at home, but they were torched through the air and got a defensive score and a 3-0 turnover edge to make that one look more comfortable than it was. I generally like Clawson, but this isn't a good role for his teams(5-10 as road chalk) and they aren't the type of physical bunch that is capable of strong arming ODU right off the field. ODU has knocked off ACC teams at home before(VT twice, once when they were ranked 15th), so I don't think that's out of the question. It's the first road start for Mitch Griffis at QB for Wake...I just see this one as being a pretty tough game for the Deacs in a role they typically don't do well in.
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Hopefully we can have Mr ODU Dollaz chime in as well.

He pegged it well last week.
 
3. UMass +7.5(-115) @Eastern Michigan: Although I am a big fan of tailing Chris Creighton when he's on the road, I held off last week when they were getting 20 at Minnesota because it looked like they had no chance to move the ball on the Gophers. They ended up covering, because they always due as a road dog, but it was by the skin of their teeth and had more to do with the benevolence of PJ Fleck than anything they did. They ended up with a paltry 152 total yards against the Gophers, and that was after they managed only 285 against Howard of all people. They've been outgained by 200 yards per game in these first two, so to favor them by more than a TD against anyone is a stretch. Now UMass usually would be that team, but I think they are much better and are actually turning into a legitimate competitive team. There's some question if their QB Poammanchanh will be able to play, but if not, the backup Carlos Davis actually looked pretty good last week against Miami(OH) and is averaging almost 9 yards per attempt. Also, while EMU is fantastic as a road dog, they are almost as automatic in the opposite way as a home favorite. They just aren't wired as a program to jump ahead and run away, and I've seen zero explosiveness from them on offense so far. Creighton is 7-16 as a home favorite and 2-7 in his last 9 in that role. UMass should be able to hang around here and EMU is definitely capable of dropping this one outright.

EMU proved they aren't the kind of team that can be a significant favorite against a somewhat competent team, and UMass was good enough to qualify. EMU lucky to win.
 
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4. @Rutgers -6.5(-115) v Virginia Tech: You'd think that laying points with Rutgers would seem to be a silly move, but not in the non-conference, and not as a home favorite. They are actually pretty good at playing the bully, having gone 6-1 in their last 7 as a home favorite and 6-2 in non-conference since the pandemic year. VT has been the opposite, with their loss to Purdue last week moving their non-conference ATS record to 4-13 since 2019. There's nothing not to like so far this year about the Rutgers defense. They rank in the top 5-10 in pretty much every advanced metric, having wreaked havoc on both Northwestern and Temple. That might not seem like much, but Virginia Tech is an offense that matches up just as badly as those two did. They can't run the ball to save their lives, as Purdue and Old Dominion(neither one a defensive juggernaut) have combined to hold the Hokies to 121 yards on 65 carries. If VT is going to have any offensive success, it will probably have to come courtesy of one of their quarterbacks. That's a bad sign, because one can't throw(Drones) and the other one (Grant Wells is a turnover machine. Rutgers offense isn't any great shakes, but they shouldn't have to be. QB Gavin Wimsett has actually looked pretty good when he's thrown it and Kyle Monangai ran wild last week. I trust Scihano in this spot, and I think VT has established themselves as a team that will have a hard time finding success against an aggressive defense in a tough atmosphere(Rutgers generally sells out, believe it or not). It's a totally different story for the Knights in conference, but this is a spot they usually handle.

Rutgers D overmatched VT and was good enough on offense to handle the number. VT under Pry looks like a sad sack. Faded the right team here.
 
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5. East Carolina +8 @Appalaichan State: This line has come down a bit, but I agree with the move, and it looks like it's educated money that's driving it. This is a case of buying low on a team that has a pedigree of competing hard, and the timing looks right here. ECU is 0-2, but their losses were at Michigan and at home to a good Marshall team with a solid defense. As a result, their numbers aren't going to look good, especially on offense. Despite that, they were ahead of Marshall last week late in the 3rd until a wide receiver reverse pass trick play gave Marshall a 75 yard TD and the rest was history. ECU has actually looked good against the run, holding both Michigan and Marshall(with an AA candidate Rasheem Ali at RB) to under 4 yards per carry. Ali actually busted a late long one to pad his stats further. Now they travel to Boone to take on the Mountaineers coming off an overtime battle with North Carolina. Appy's MO is competing with the big boys, but they fall asleep at home against lesser lights, which was evident in week one when they were played to a statistical standstill by Gardner Webb. They gave up 300+ yards on the ground in that game, so I think ECU will find some success. The Pirates will definitely experience some class relief coming off of Michigan and Marshall's defense, and at 0-2 they need a win badly, so Appy will get the best effort of a team that usually gives people fits in the American. Also, ECU is in their element as a road dog, as Mike Houston is 12-4 as a road dog, while Appy State is 4-9 as a home favorite since '21. The game doesn't profile to be a laugher in my opinion.

Appy looks pretty good on offense actually. ECU offense only had 240 yards. It's clear this ECU team has limitations on offense. ECU resourcefulness only goes so far.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Wow. UMass and ODU leading things off on Saturday. Hold your nose I guess.
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I like high scoring more than anything. I worry about ODUs pass defense vs Wake. I dont think LAs passing attack is all that potent and they threw well. Our defense is getting zero pressure so far.

Im iffy on a side but I do like the over.

If a secondary cant match up man to man vs ODu, they will score points. They creat so many mismatches with tempo and space. But if a team can play single high with man outside, that leaves 7 in the box and Im worried about us moving the ball.
B.A.R. said:
Hopefully we can have Mr ODU Dollaz chime in as well.

He pegged it well last week.
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Dollaz said:
I like high scoring more than anything. I worry about ODUs pass defense vs Wake. I dont think LAs passing attack is all that potent and they threw well. Our defense is getting zero pressure so far.

Im iffy on a side but I do like the over.

If a secondary cant match up man to man vs ODu, they will score points. They creat so many mismatches with tempo and space. But if a team can play single high with man outside, that leaves 7 in the box and Im worried about us moving the ball.
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Glad you found us Dollaz!
 
Dollaz said:
I like high scoring more than anything. I worry about ODUs pass defense vs Wake. I dont think LAs passing attack is all that potent and they threw well. Our defense is getting zero pressure so far.

Im iffy on a side but I do like the over.

If a secondary cant match up man to man vs ODu, they will score points. They creat so many mismatches with tempo and space. But if a team can play single high with man outside, that leaves 7 in the box and Im worried about us moving the ball.
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Thanks !
 
6.@Duke -17(-115) v Northwestern: I think this spread was shaping up to be in the mid 20's had Northwestern not posted a 29 point win at home against UTEP. Since the Cats were able to do that, we now have a much more manageable number, and it was one I was going to be on regardless based on Mike Elko's spotless home ATS record and what might measure up to be one of the biggest coaching mismatches of the young season. Anyone who watched David Braun's Big Ten media day press conference would tell you a couple things. 1. he at least showed some fortitude in being the only guy from Northwestern willing to face the music after the Fitzy scandal, and 2. He looks pretty overwhelmed. Braun had never been a head coach at any level and certainly wasn't on anyone's radar until he was thrust into this position mostly because he had ben around the shortest amount of time, and thus had plausible deniability to what allegedly went on. Now he has to face a great coach and one of the better staffs in the country, not to mention some really good players who handed it to Duke and have just about everyone back from an 8 win bowl team. While it's true that NW handled UTEP, most of the damage was done very late. With about 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the game was tied at 7, and the Cats had been outgained by the Miners by more than 80 yards in the first half. An 85 yard passing TD from backup Ryan Hilinski changed the tenor of that game, and the Cats were off and running. Bu that doesn't change the ineptness the Cats showed for the first 6 and a half quarters of the season, and I suspect the Blue Devils were paying attention to the film and Mike Elko and company will be ready to exploit the many weaknesses the Cats have. Mike Elko is 6-0 ATS at home so far at Duke, and my plan is to ride them within reason until they fail.

Good idea to tail Duke. They are good on both sides. Toyed with the Cats.
 
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7. @Iowa -28 v Western Michigan: I have to admit that laying major points with this Iowa offense does not seem to be a good idea, but I've actually not been burned by them in larger spread spots like this. It's usually because I am very hesitant to lay(duh), but in this case, I really think it's justified. First of all, I was a little surprised that Tim Lester got fired from WMU, as he always seemed like a competent coach, but looking at this WMU team now and what they've got on the roster, maybe it all makes sense. Other than Kent, this looks like perhaps the worst team in the MAC. They hired Lance Taylor, who was the OC at Louisville for one year after being on ND's staff as RB coach. Interestingly enough, he played at Alabama, but you probably couldn't pick a worse 4 years to have been there (1999-2002). The guy played for Alabama, but he had 4 coaches(!!) and they were Mike DuBose, Dennis Franchione, Mike Price and Mike Shula. Tough break. As for his team, he has no semblance of a passing game, as the QBs who have gotten the most play simply can't throw the ball. He actually has Hayden Wolf on his roster, who has won games at ODU, but he likes the guys who are averaging 5 and 4.1 yards per attempt. One of the kids has the ultimate Gen Y first name of "Treyson" which is almost enough to fade them on it's own merits. Syracuse had them down 45-7 at halftime, and if you take away a fluke 75 yard run on the second play from scrimmage, they ran for a grand total of 18 yards and didn't score a point. Let's just say they don't appear to be a good matchup against the Iowa defense, who is probably more likely to score a TD apiece on defense and special teams than WMU is on offense. Syracuse did whatever they wanted against the WMU defense when they cared to score, and I'm guessing that if there's ever a chance for Kirk Ferentz to run up some points for his son so he can keep his contract, this is the game. If they don't cover this, you will never see me even consider laying this many points with Iowa again. I don't care if they hire Don Coryell reincarnated as the coach.

This was a mistake. There was no margin for error here and I should have lost this bet. Lucky that I got a gift late.
 
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8. @Florida +6 v Tennessee: This is by far the most Tennessee has been favored over Florida AT Florida in the history of this game. So you would think that would indicate that this is one of the best Tennessee teams in Vol history playing one of the worst Florida teams in Gator history. Well, if his game happened last year, at least in recent history, you could make that case. But I don't think you can this year, especially with Tennessee because I don't think the Vols are anywhere close to being as good as they were last year, especially in the passing game. I don't blame them for that because they are missing 4 guys off the offense that got drafted in the first 50 or so picks. But that passing game has not clicked against Virginia and the Austin Peay Governors. Squirrel White and Bru McCoy, the two guys expected to take over for Hyatt and Tillman as the primary receivers this year, averaged 17.8 and 13.0 yards per catch last year. This year, against 2 shit pass defenses, White is averaging 7.5 and McCoy 10.3. Joe MIlton isn't even averaging 7 yards per attempt. There are 78 college QBs who are, and you can bet your life Hendon Hooker did(actually, he averaged 9.8 over 2 years as the starter). So far Milton has not been able to replicate the quick timing needed to cook in this offense, but it hasn't mattered because they've played only cupcakes at home. It'll matter this week. Florida is down, but they are still Florida and they were tested in week 1 vs Utah, so they are ready to go. They held their own defensively against Utah, especially in the run game, giving up only 3.5 yards per carry against a Utah team that wants to run and needed to in that game without Cam Rising. That's good because Tennessee has been able to run art will on those 2 tomato cans they've played. Offensively, we all know about Graham Mertz, but he threw for 300 plus against Utah so he's not helpless back there, and Florida's backs are very good, especially the younger Etienne who is well over 6 yards per carry in his career. I'm not a fan of Billy Napier long term, but he does cover as a dog, (15-4-1 by my count, including 4-1 at Florida excluding that bowl fiasco last year. It's a popular play among people I follow, but I agree with it. I think Florida hangs here. I have a hard time seeing Joe Milton shine in this spot, and they'll need him to if they are going to cover this number.

Good call here. Home dog with promise against a team living off last year's rep. Went even better than I thought for Florida.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
8. @Florida +6 v Tennessee: This is by far the most Tennessee has been favored over Florida AT Florida in the history of this game. So you would think that would indicate that this is one of the best Tennessee teams in Vol history playing one of the worst Florida teams in Gator history. Well, if his game happened last year, at least in recent history, you could make that case. But I don't think you can this year, especially with Tennessee because I don't think the Vols are anywhere close to being as good as they were last year, especially in the passing game. I don't blame them for that because they are missing 4 guys off the offense that got drafted in the first 50 or so picks. But that passing game has not clicked against Virginia and the Austin Peay Governors. Squirrel White and Bru McCoy, the two guys expected to take over for Hyatt and Tillman as the primary receivers this year, averaged 17.8 and 13.0 yards per catch last year. This year, against 2 shit pass defenses, White is averaging 7.5 and McCoy 10.3. Joe MIlton isn't even averaging 7 yards per attempt. There are 78 college QBs who are, and you can bet your life Hendon Hooker did(actually, he averaged 9.8 over 2 years as the starter). So far Milton has not been able to replicate the quick timing needed to cook in this offense, but it hasn't mattered because they've played only cupcakes at home. It'll matter this week. Florida is down, but they are still Florida and they were tested in week 1 vs Utah, so they are ready to go. They held their own defensively against Utah, especially in the run game, giving up only 3.5 yards per carry against a Utah team that wants to run and needed to in that game without Cam Rising. That's good because Tennessee has been able to run art will on those 2 tomato cans they've played. Offensively, we all know about Graham Mertz, but he threw for 300 plus against Utah so he's not helpless back there, and Florida's backs are very good, especially the younger Etienne who is well over 6 yards per carry in his career. I'm not a fan of Billy Napier long term, but he does cover as a dog, (15-4-1 by my count, including 4-1 at Florida excluding that bowl fiasco last year. It's a popular play among people I follow, but I agree with it. I think Florida hangs here. I have a hard time seeing Joe Milton shine in this spot, and they'll need him to if they are going to cover this number.
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Love it. Basically the same thoughts. I don’t think vols can push gators massive d-tackles around in the run game and would expect gators come after Milton from every direction and he most certainly is not Hendon hooker! Im not a huge graham Metz fan but as @JROCK1966 pointed out to me the other day Mertz actually has a better efficiency rating than Milton.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. @Iowa -28 v Western Michigan: I have to admit that laying major points with this Iowa offense does not seem to be a good idea, but I've actually not been burned by them in larger spread spots like this. It's usually because I am very hesitant to lay(duh), but in this case, I really think it's justified. First of all, I was a little surprised that Tim Lester got fired from WMU, as he always seemed like a competent coach, but looking at this WMU team now and what they've got on the roster, maybe it all makes sense. Other than Kent, this looks like perhaps the worst team in the MAC. They hired Lance Taylor, who was the OC at Louisville for one year after being on ND's staff as RB coach. Interestingly enough, he played at Alabama, but you probably couldn't pick a worse 4 years to have been there (1999-2002). The guy played for Alabama, but he had 4 coaches(!!) and they were Mike DuBose, Dennis Franchione, Mike Price and Mike Shula. Tough break. As for his team, he has no semblance of a passing game, as the QBs who have gotten the most play simply can't throw the ball. He actually has Hayden Wolf on his roster, who has won games at ODU, but he likes the guys who are averaging 5 and 4.1 yards per attempt. One of the kids has the ultimate Gen Y first name of "Treyson" which is almost enough to fade them on it's own merits. Syracuse had them down 45-7 at halftime, and if you take away a fluke 75 yard run on the second play from scrimmage, they ran for a grand total of 18 yards and didn't score a point. Let's just say they don't appear to be a good matchup against the Iowa defense, who is probably more likely to score a TD apiece on defense and special teams than WMU is on offense. Syracuse did whatever they wanted against the WMU defense when they cared to score, and I'm guessing that if there's ever a chance for Kirk Ferentz to run up some points for his son so he can keep his contract, this is the game. If they don't cover this, you will never see me even consider laying this many points with Iowa again. I don't care if they hire Don Coryell reincarnated as the coach.
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It almost has to be telling they have a team who hasn’t scored 25 favored by 28 doesn’t it? Seems like about as good a spot as any for the iowa oc to help bump up the avg ppg which I believe the goal was 25!! Liking to play props the way I do to me this just says McNamara should be targeting his all world te as much as possible! Lachey number has consistently been 44/45 all year and he has went over each game so far, certainly can’t see a reason he doesn’t go for 50+ here unless iowa defense does all the scoring and the starters leave before accomplishing much.
 
9. @Oklahoma State -7 v South Alabama: The Jags were one of the best teams to bet on last year, hanging tough with everyone and just getting nosed out by Troy in the SBC West, but despite having a decent complement of guys back from last year, there is something amiss in Mobile. Most alarmingly is their pass defense. I realize that Michael Pratt is good, but in their game against Tulane, Pratt completed 14 of 15 passes for 294 yards and 4 TDs, and one of those TDs was a 4 yarder. Take that away and Pratt averaged 20.7 yards PER ATTEMPT. In game 2, SE Louisiana threw for 350 yards and almost 10 yards per attempt. To say Kade Wommack needs to figure out what's going on down there is an understatement. Offensively, Carter Bradley had a nice year last year after staggering around at Toledo for a couple years, but he's back to staggering this year, having already thrown 3 picks. His numbers aren't terrible but they're propped up by an 87 yard busted coverage TD by the SE LA defense last week. Oklahoma State is down in a lot of people's eyes, mine included, but they had a nice road win at Arizona State last week, and although they played 3 QBs, they all looked pretty effective. (I actually watched some of that game during a spell of insomnia earlier this week). Gundy as we all know is a covering machine, and I'm sure he'll figure out several ways to take advantage of this secondary in disarray. It's rare that he would get such a short spread against a Sun Belt team, and I think this line is based mostly on what SALAB did last year, and not on what they look like so far this year.

No idea what happened to OSU/Gundy here. SALAB righted the ship. After watching ASU, any good vibes from that win were fraudulent. Variance happens.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
4. @Rutgers -6.5(-115) v Virginia Tech: You'd think that laying points with Rutgers would seem to be a silly move, but not in the non-conference, and not as a home favorite. They are actually pretty good at playing the bully, having gone 6-1 in their last 7 as a home favorite and 6-2 in non-conference since the pandemic year. VT has been the opposite, with their loss to Purdue last week moving their non-conference ATS record to 4-13 since 2019. There's nothing not to like so far this year about the Rutgers defense. They rank in the top 5-10 in pretty much every advanced metric, having wreaked havoc on both Northwestern and Temple. That might not seem like much, but Virginia Tech is an offense that matches up just as badly as those two did. They can't run the ball to save their lives, as Purdue and Old Dominion(neither one a defensive juggernaut) have combined to hold the Hokies to 121 yards on 65 carries. If VT is going to have any offensive success, it will probably have to come courtesy of one of their quarterbacks. That's a bad sign, because one can't throw(Drones) and the other one (Grant Wells is a turnover machine. Rutgers offense isn't any great shakes, but they shouldn't have to be. QB Gavin Wimsett has actually looked pretty good when he's thrown it and Kyle Monangai ran wild last week. I trust Scihano in this spot, and I think VT has established themselves as a team that will have a hard time finding success against an aggressive defense in a tough atmosphere(Rutgers generally sells out, believe it or not). It's a totally different story for the Knights in conference, but this is a spot they usually handle.
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I don't know if it will matter, but Drones will be the QB today. Also, Jennings, 1 of the 2 WR transfers who made Wells look like a decent QB in week 1 is out for a while and Lane the other WR transfer may play but he will not be 100%.

And of course, VT will still not be able to run the ball.
 
Sources: Rutgers will be without two starters against Virginia Tech today. Top receiver Chris Long is out with a lower body injury and will miss his second consecutive game. Right tackle Tyler Needham will miss the Virginia Tech game after a leg injury suffered against Temple.
 
He Hate Me said:
I don't know if it will matter, but Drones will be the QB today. Also, Jennings, 1 of the 2 WR transfers who made Wells look like a decent QB in week 1 is out for a while and Lane the other WR transfer may play but he will not be 100%.

And of course, VT will still not be able to run the ball.
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Thanks for the info HHM. Jennings is good. You could make a case that they might have been in danger of losing outright to ODU if they didn't have him that day.
 
10. Georgia Tech +18(-115) @Ole Miss: I'm going to get this in here now even though it's a little out of chronological order. I played it this morning at 18(-115) but I see it's down to 17.5 heavily juiced so it might end up at 17, and maybe below that. I'd probably play it if I could buy to 17, maybe even 16. This is a game where just about every obstacle to an A performance is there for Ole MIss. First of all, Kiffin has been bad in this role lately having failed to cover 6 in a row as a home favorite. the Rebs are also dealing with a bunch of injuries. Leading receiver Tre Harris, who has caught pretty much all of Dart's TD passes is out, and it looks like RB Judkins, who GT would have had a terrible time trying to handle, is also doubtful. Transfer Zakhari Franklin, who they got from UTSA and was a stud there, still doesn't look like he is healthy and if he plays, he won't be at 100%. They also are coming off a tough game at Tulane and are looking ahead to Alabama next week. ALSO, they are playing a team in GT who has been covering everything as a dog since Brent Key took over(6 out of 7), and they look much more competent offensively with Hayes King taking the snaps. If Ole Miss covers this, it will be a credit to them because every possible disadvantage is staring them in the face here, at least as it relates to covering a big number.

This one bothered me. Lots of bad calls against Tech and a late TD from 50 yards out took the push away. Down 7 with the ball and 8 minutes left and then the roof caved in. Would probably make this bet again.
 
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11. Miami(OH) +14 @Cincinnati: Miami has basically been a punching bag for the Bearcats over the past decade plus, but I think this might be a spot where they can have some success. Cincinnati had a great week last week, winning rather easily at Pitt as a 7 point dog. I'm not all that worried about their about to repeat that performance however, for a couple reasons. First, under Narduzzi, Pitt always shits the bed as a home favorite. Second, I don't have a lot of faith in Scott Satterfield, and I certainly am not scared of Emory Jones, who embodies what is now known as a "journeyman" college football player. Much like many teams this week Cincy also finds themselves in a really bad sandwich spot, coming off the Pitt win and looking ahead to Oklahoma coming to town in their first ever Big 12 game. I think Miami believes this is as good a chance as they've had in this game for awhile, and they have a lot of experience throughout their roster, especially on offense with 5th year starter Brett Gabbert at QB. Even if they are down 21 or so late, they'll have a shot at the back door, and I think they'll catch Cincy in a spot where Satterfield shows he's not paid much attention to detail, something that's plagued him in the past.

Need to find more opportunities like this and make sure I don't miss them.
 
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12. Northern Illinois +13 @Nebraska: If you try to handicap a Nebraska game by analyzing advanced metrics and see how things are going at the line of scrimmage, I would say you might be going about it the wrong way. That's usually a good way to look at games, but in Nebraska's case, it's getting to be an almost cosmic type force that is working against them. I mentioned this before, but Matt Rhule has no ordinary job here. Before he can even think about establishing his culture, he has to dig through about 25 feet of accumulated bad karma that someone in the universe has for whatever reason unleashed on the Cornhuskers. Last week, I would dare say that at times, Nebraska looked like the better team. Actually for log stretches of the game, they did. I didn't matter though, and despite that, they still ended up getting blown out. Now they face a Northern Illinois squad that makes it's living in situations like this. The Huskies are 13-4 as a road underdog under Thomas Hammock, and they've already won outright at BC. NIU is also just as bad as a home favorite as they are as a road dog, so we always get value like this because they tend to do what they did last week off the good road performance, which is lose outright to an FCS team at home, this time, Southern Illinois. I have no idea what Rhule is going to do at QB. Jeff Sims's turnover troubles are now borderline comical, but he has no real backup option to turn to, as Chuba Purdy has clearly proven that he can't play, and the other guy, Heinrich Haarburg(???) has averaged 2 yards per attempt in his limited duty. NIU has proven that they can handle situations like this, and Nebraska hasn't been able to avoid calamities, let alone play a game that results in a positive outcome. Call me crazy, but I'm gonna let Nebraska prove it, especially against an opponent that won't be scared.


Can't be too worried about this one because I was always going to play NIU based on the recent(and long term) history of both teams. Hats off to Rhule to start the long climb back to a world where the play on the field has some semblance of effect on the final score.
 
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13. BYU +8 @Arkansas: I don't think anyone can be happy with the way Arkansas has looked on offense this year, and the guy that they are heavily reliant on the carry the load for them, RB Rocket Sanders, has been declared out for this game. The Hogs have played Western Carolina and Kent in their first two games and they've failed to crack 400 yards in either game, and they managed only 308 against Kent, thought by many to be a candidate for the 133rd best team in the country. OC Dan Enos is probably one of the least popular men in the country, as every fan base that has watched him coordinate for their team has wanted him gone immediately. No wonder that things haven't looked sharp thus far. Last year when these two teams met, BYU had no chance to stop Arkansas on offense, but a lot has changed. They brought in Jay Hill, former head man at Weber State for the past 8 years whose teams were in the playoffs every year at the FCS level and were at the top of the list on defense as well. They haven't played anyone yet, but they've looked very good on defense, and much more structured. If you watched them play defense last year, that was certainly not the case. Kalani Sitake knows how to cover as a road dog(12-4 ATS), and I think BYU has enough on offense (Aiden Robbins, Chase Roberts, Issac Rex) to help Kedon Slovis be adequate enough to make this a competitive game. I've always been a big fan of KJ Jefferson, but he's pretty much a one man gang without Sanders, so if they cover this, he will probably need to sleep under Tuesday morning.

Even though BYU didn't do much, it was a good spot for them. Got a bit fortunate here but it's always good to take points with a resourceful dog and fade a team that looks a bit lost. Even when they play well, things seem to fall apart on them.
 
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14. Florida Atlantic +25(-114) @Clemson: There's several things going on here. FAU really laid an egg last week, blowing a 10 point lead and allowing Ohio to come in to Boca Raton and get a win. They looked bad, and I think about as bad as they can look. As a result, there's a ton of value here on the Owls, and I have faith that with the talent they have, Tom Herman can conjure up a solid road dog performance. We all saw what Clemson did against Duke, and until Dabo allows Garrett Riley to run his own system, I don't know that they'll ever be effective offensively. Even last week, they were in a 21-17 game with Charleston Southern until the end of the first half. They righted the ship, but they still haven't delivered a solid performance since about November of last year. This is really a buy low/sell high situation for a team I think has the athletes to compete against a team that appears to be subject to an artificial ceiling that their coach is applying to them.

I think I may have to face facts that FAU isn't as good as I thought. Until they play Illinois, of course. Clemson still a fade, IMO.
 
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15. @Houston +7.5 v TCU: I'm never completely comfortable backing Dana Holgerson in any situation, but if I was going to do it, this is about as good a spot as Houston will get. They are coming off a road loss in an awful spot to a Rice team that isn't that bad. As a result, they're getting more than a TD at home playing a natural rival in their first ever Big 12 game. They haven't played each other in awhile, but I'm sure it won't take these two teams long to dislike each other. TCU bounced back pretty well from their loss to Colorado against FCS punching bag Nicholls, but they had a lot of alarming issues on defense in their opener against Colorado, and I've never been a big fan of QB Chandler Morris. They were really depleted in their skill positions, having lost just about everyone, and they are overdue for some bad breaks, as they lived a charmed life last year. With Donovan Smith getting settled in at QB, Houston shouldn't have much problem being competitive against a defense that was torched for 550 yards on their home field by Colorado, despite my affection for DC Joe Gillespie. I really wouldn't be surprised if Houston won this game, and if they avoid turnovers I think they'll be right there with a chance to win at the end.

This was a very weak play. I liked the idea of Houston getting points here off a bad performance but that was about it. Should have sat this one out. Read how weak the reasoning is! Not good.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
15. @Houston +7.5 v TCU: I'm never completely comfortable backing Dana Holgerson in any situation, but if I was going to do it, this is about as good a spot as Houston will get. They are coming off a road loss in an awful spot to a Rice team that isn't that bad. As a result, they're getting more than a TD at home playing a natural rival in their first ever Big 12 game. They haven't played each other in awhile, but I'm sure it won't take these two teams long to dislike each other. TCU bounced back pretty well from their loss to Colorado against FCS punching bag Nicholls, but they had a lot of alarming issues on defense in their opener against Colorado, and I've never been a big fan of QB Chandler Morris. They were really depleted in their skill positions, having lost just about everyone, and they are overdue for some bad breaks, as they lived a charmed life last year. With Donovan Smith getting settled in at QB, Houston shouldn't have much problem being competitive against a defense that was torched for 550 yards on their home field by Colorado, despite my affection for DC Joe Gillespie. I really wouldn't be surprised if Houston won this game, and if they avoid turnovers I think they'll be right there with a chance to win at the end.
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I saw this and had to chuckle
 
16 Kansas -28 @Nevada: Nevada lost at home last week to FCS Idaho 33-6. They are bad. Jay Norvell completely kneecapped that program by taking every decent player they had with him to Colorado State last year. Not very many coaches were interested in taking on that rebuild, so Nevada had to settle on nice guy and program veteran Ken Wilson, who apparently as a coach, is a hell of a nice guy. Kansas's offense will be able to name the score here as they is no way the Wolf Pack(2 words) defense will be able to decipher what they're doing. Also, although 2 of their best defenders will be suspended for targeting penalties last week, the Kansas defense is definitely improved. As I mentioned last week, when you have a bunch of kids that have been influenced by good coaching for a couple years(which a lot of Kansas's defensive personnel has), you have no choice but to improve. Even if they didn't, we're talking about an offense that mustered only 268 yards against an FCS squad(admittedly a good one) on their home field. I'll be really surprised if this game isn't severely one sided.

In retrospect there was no value here. Both teams coming off performances on opposite ends of the spectrum, regression should have been assumed. If so, one would realize 28 would be too tall a task, even though Kansas completely dominated this box score.
 
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9-7 total for the week. Can't complain with a positive week, because if you do, karma will give you a REAL reason to complain next week. I should probably spend more time reviewing what went wrong and what went well, so as not to make the same mistakes, but it's more fun to just start on the next week, and this week has a lot of fun matchups.
 
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