Week 3 with your boy Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD: 3-3, -0.9 units

Didn't post last week.

I'll post some plays this week and we will see how it goes.

So far only on one, let's talk Miami Ohio football for a minute.

Coming into this year, they have won five games in 3 years. Last year's 3 win campaign was beating Presbyterian, EMU and UMass. Thats about as bad a three wins as you can have.

First week, they get 45 put on them by Iowa and score a little 45-21. Last week, they have a 17-7 lead on E Illinois and give up the ghost at home and lose 21-17 when EIU rallies to win in the last 4 mins. I think its safe to say that was a deflating loss.

Into mighty Oxford comes W Kentucky who kicked the snot out of Rice before getting pasted up by Bama.

Last year, W Ky was up 56-7 before a garbage TD...and Miami had 28 yards on 28 plays other than the one TD drive. The Redskins got dominated is my point.

Considering that WKy threw for 464 last year, and the new QB went for 5bills vs. Rice what do you think happens this year? You think Brohm can find a few holes to exploit in Miami's secondary?

Miami's pass defense numbers look OK--Iowa only went for 2and some change and EIU was about the same. But EIU was 4 yards a throw so nothing was downfield. Iowa not known for breaking out the long ball. Guess what I'm saying is they really haven't had anyone testing them downfield yet.

I just see W Ky having their way on offense and tossing it all over the old sandlot in Oxford. It's homecoming but the crowd (which will suck anyway because its Miami) will be gone by halftime.
Be surprised to see W Ky under 45 here, and since they are giving 18....Miami probably needs at least 28 to cover. That ain't happening unless W Ky has a defense a bunch worse than I think they are. Miami scored more than 28 exactly once LY.

Play:
Western Ky -18 for 1.5 units

Back with more later...

Card goes here:

W Kentucky -18 1.5 units
Teaser: Houston -1.5/Bama -5.5 for 1.5 units
Teaser: Sd State -5/Penn State -2.5 for 1 unit
ML parlay: Houston/S Florida/SD State 1 unit to win .86
Houston TT over 35.5 1.2 units to win 1
Penn State -8.5 for 1 unit
Army -4 for 1 unit
USC +9 for 1.5 units
Buckeyes ML for 2 units (-120)
Tenn/Ohio U. Over 58 for 1 unit
Bowling Green +7 for 1 unit (-120)
ML: Michigan/SD State/W Ky/Marshall/Wash St/Buckeyes....1 unit to win 2.18
2H: Fla State -2.5 for 1 unit (-115)
2H: Tennessee -11.5 for 1 unit
 
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Hey FONDY, whats with the pig shirt? Is that anyway to treat a guy just because he doesn't know how to download a picture?
 
It was stagnating around 17 I believe because of White's status. I think Miami Ohio can score on Western Kentucky but that doesn't mean WKY cannot light up the scoreboard here and cover.

best of luck. Love this thread over the years
 
HUNT said:
Gl this week Mars. Can northern Illinois stop sdsu run game?
Click to expand...

Doubtful. Wyoming ran for 243, S Fla 293 on them...Pumprey broke Marshall Faulk's all time SDSt yards record last week so we are talking about a pretty good back here. I think we see some short fields and time possession being dominated by SD St. I think NIU wears down, and Sd St rolls. I'm gonna be on SD St...hoping to see 10...
 
Herman v. Tuberville. Ward is back as well as the running back. Cinco struggled with UT Martin and took care of Purdue on the road. That makes them legit? Could see some fuckery as well from the zebras in Houston's favor...I teased Houston down to 1.5 and moved through 7,4,3 and did the same with Bama down to 5.5...

Play: Teaser Houston -1.5/Bama -5.5 for 1.5 units
 
Thanks Grind and Laxer...have to run out to a meeting here so no time to explain but made a few plays...

ML parlay: Houston U./S Florida/SD State 1 unit to win .86
Houston U. TT over 35.5 1.2 units to win 1
 
Normally I would call this a flat spot for Penn State considering that they came back on Pitt in the 2H but still lost a rivalry game. However, Temple smacked them around last year and beat them for the first time since the Liberty Bell was cracked. You think Penn State has forgot about that? More to the point, you think James Franklin has forgot about it? Dude is on the hot seat a little bit in Happy Valley and Herbstreit getting after him in SI doesn't help.
Barkley is a legit RB, and the offense seemed to be getting untracked in the second half last week coming back from being down 21.
Jahad Thomas from Temple is ? with a dislocated thumb and he's probably Temple's best offensive player.
Maybe we don't have a classic Penn State defense here but Temple scored 13 pts.on 250 yards of offense at home against Army.

Don't look for Franklin to be calling off the dogs at all considering that Temple's coach played at Penn State...you think the Penn State fans have mentioned that once or twice? I think we might see a trip to the woodshed here.

Play: Penn State -8.5 for 1 unit
 
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Briefly discussed SD State above, but just think they have their way on the ground with NIU. He drop-off at QB for NIU as the starter won't be going. Maybe a slightly flat spot for SD State but I like Rocky Long enough that I'm not worried. I usually look at teasers only when I can move through three big numbers (10,7,6) or (7,6,4,3)...I probably will straight bet this game too...like to see 10 though

Teaser play: Sd State -5/Penn State -2.5 for 1 unit
 
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Been impressed with Army's play this year.
They haven't fumbled at all (I think) which means tremendous ball security in the triple option. They have a nice balance and even completed a few passes vs. Rice.
They sadly lost one of their backs to a car accident this week. I would think we see them fully focused here. They go on the road to the Sun Bowl, but as VK points out there is a huge Army base there so I would expect a pretty nice turnout for the Black Knights. UTEP QB is banged up and may not go...I'm not afraid of laying points to the Miners who don't see the option much...

Play: Army -4 for 1 unit
 
Not going to overthink this one. USC catching 9? That doesn't happen very often, not counting Bama games. Sign me up.

Play: USC +9 for 1.5 units
 
Thanks Dr Tim, one of all time great cappers on here...:tiphat:

Other leans: Oregon, BG, Ohio U Over, Butgers, S Fla, UCLA, Wash St, Buckeyes....
 
Buckeye ML bet for 2 units...finally saw -120...I think I posted little on O State in the Big Ten thread....But basically like Urban in a big game showdown with Big Game Bob. JT impressed me when he went into East Lansing and hung 49 on a really good defense. My point is those OK rednecks can drink moonshine for 4 days and yell at him and he don't care. OSU defense has been impressive other than maybe a little leakiness at the point of attack vs. Tulsa. I was worried about the secondary but Malik Hooker has been the early breakout star of this team at safety.
My only real question mark is how the OSU OL will block Oklahoma....overall I'm willing to take my chances on Urban and the boys in a big game environment.

Buckeyes ML for 2 units (-120)
 
Oh yeah, guess where ol JT Barrett is from? Wichita Falls Texas which is about one minute from the Oklahoma border. You think anybody from back home is gonna make the 2 hr. drive to Norman?
 
Hey Marski my friend. You might find this funny, this May I was at A Day Out With Thomas event with my grandaughter near Cuyahoga Falls and sitting right across from me on the train was coach Terry Bowden! I said 'hey coach'...he smiles and says 'hi'. I didn't want to bother him too much. I said "nice year last season, do you have any weeknight MACtion games this year?' He says 'I'm afraid we do'. So after the train ride we are getting off and I see an iphone on the seat he was at. I picked it up and said 'he coach' and handed him the phone. I wanted to zing him and say good thing you didn't lose all those numbers for the 5 star recruits.

I do tend to like Penn St as well, would like to lay less, we'll see where the line goes. Strange that vs Stony Brook Temple's leading rusher had just 48y on 14 att...QB Walker was just 48% completions as well (he is under 50% on the year). Temple didn't have to drive very far for most of their TDs last week due to short field from punt or TOs. I get that they may have been flat off the disappointing loss with PSU on deck, but this Temple team is something else this year.

Good luck this week.
 
s--k said:
Hey Marski my friend. You might find this funny, this May I was at A Day Out With Thomas event with my grandaughter near Cuyahoga Falls and sitting right across from me on the train was coach Terry Bowden! I said 'hey coach'...he smiles and says 'hi'. I didn't want to bother him too much. I said "nice year last season, do you have any weeknight MACtion games this year?' He says 'I'm afraid we do'. So after the train ride we are getting off and I see an iphone on the seat he was at. I picked it up and said 'he coach' and handed him the phone. I wanted to zing him and say good thing you didn't lose all those numbers for the 5 star recruits.

LOL...Fat Bowden, that's awesome. Good to hear from you, brother. Go getcha some Nittany Lions today...

I do tend to like Penn St as well, would like to lay less, we'll see where the line goes. Strange that vs Stony Brook Temple's leading rusher had just 48y on 14 att...QB Walker was just 48% completions as well (he is under 50% on the year). Temple didn't have to drive very far for most of their TDs last week due to short field from punt or TOs. I get that they may have been flat off the disappointing loss with PSU on deck, but this Temple team is something else this year.

Good luck this week.
Click to expand...

LOL...Fat Bowden, that's awesome. Good to hear from you, brother. Go getcha some Nittany Lions today...
 
Tennessee is probably going to get untracked today vs. my Bobcats. Texas St had a great deal of success against Frank's bunch and Kansas last week was more of a victim of turnovers, bad play calls, bad QB play than anything OU was doing....I do think OU has some playmakers and can put up some points. This seems like 45-21 type of affair...

Play: Tenness/Ohio U. Ovah 58 for 1 unit
 
Gonna take a stab here with BG getting some major class relief after getting smoked by OSU and speaking one out vs No Dak...If BG is really going to be the class of the MAC East this is a game they should win...I'm not very familiar with MTSU honestly, I'm just not sure why they are going on the road and are a full TD fav...Both teams should be putting up points but I like BG to stay within the number and possibly win outright

Play: Bowling Green +7 for 1 unit (-120)
 
Eh .. a lot of bullshit scoring by Texas State in that game until the multiple overtimes. I mean one of the TD's against Ohio was a long TD pass to an unintended receiver. Texas State could do nothing on Ohio in the 1h. I do think it is a good match up for Vols because I don't think the Ohio offense matches up well and eventually vols are scoring on MAC talent.

Best of luck with Western Kentucky .. would think their offense rebounds assuming they aren't beat up and weather isn't too bad (looks like wind)
 
clowncar said:
Eh .. a lot of bullshit scoring by Texas State in that game until the multiple overtimes. I mean one of the TD's against Ohio was a long TD pass to an unintended receiver. Texas State could do nothing on Ohio in the 1h. I do think it is a good match up for Vols because I don't think the Ohio offense matches up well and eventually vols are scoring on MAC talent.

Best of luck with Western Kentucky .. would think their offense rebounds assuming they aren't beat up and weather isn't too bad (looks like wind)
Click to expand...

Thats a fair point about the 1H, I just think it was overshadowed by the total inability to get off the field on defense down the stretch. I think OU's QB will have some success when they move the pocket and look downfield. Running the ball will be tough I suspect.
 
Thanks Press and Hound....

Shits and giggles ML parlay for 1 unit with a bunch of favs I like and O State....

ML: Michigan/SD State/W Ky/Marshall/Wash St/Buckeyes....1 to win 2.18
 
2H play: Tennessee -11.5 for 1 unit (god forgive me but I think this still turns ugly for my Bobcats...hope I'm wrong, please let us beat Tennessee)
 
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