Week 3 What I'm Seeing

[lvmike32]

Hey guys, about even through Week 2 - some great cappers really struggling this year so far. So feel ok being even so far. Anyway, here are some of the main themes I'm seeing so far this week:

1. Seems everyone is on UAB -11/-12. As a donk, non-capper this is the type of game it's hard for me to see and bet that way. GA Southern just put up 650 yards on Nebraska and scored a zillion points and you're asking what looks like an offensively challenged UAB team to beat them by 2 TDs basically. I get it's all about the spot. But see a lot of folks on UAB and no one on GA South. So I'm on UAB -11.

2. Is Indiana the play of the week? Opened -8 and currently -6.5 so money has come on WK. I bet WK +8 at open (Bookie had Indiana -2 in his forecast) and got off at -6.5. I do like Indy in this one and will likely rebet at -6.5. They beat what looks like a pretty good Illinois team. More than that, I think WK is way down this year despite being 2-0. They struggled mightily vs. AP in opener and only led Hawaii 21-10 at half, scoring 0 points in the 1Q. Seems to me their offense is way down this year and this week it could get exposed. Couple sharps have it this way.

3. Seems S Alabama +14 or more vs UCLA and Texas St +31 or more vs Baylor are popular.

4. Houston/Kansas is the game I've seen the most on both sides.

5. My own donk analysis - like Penn St -3 vs. Auburn - basically a Harsin fade. PSU tested at Purdue and vs, scrappy Ohio and Auburn struggled mightily with SJSt who I think is down this year. And LSU +3 - see some on Miss St and no one on LSU. But I need to see Leach beat Kelly in LSU to believe it. Probably try for middle if I can get Miss St at PK but doesn't seem like that is going to happen.

My other leans when TT come out:

AF TT O31
WF TT O39
GA TT O38
CC TT O39

PS: Seen a guy from Australia put a Max Wager 12u bet on Geelong -21.5 in Aussie Rules football in Friday game. Put a unit on it.

Comments/feedback always welcome. thanks

 

[jedi ninja]

PS: Seen a guy from Australia put a Max Wager 12u bet on Geelong -21.5 in Aussie Rules football in Friday game. Put a unit on it.

Now you're talking my language. Geelong finished top of the ladder and have 2 of the top 5 goal scorers in the league, but 21.5 is A LOT of points to be giving to Brisbane, who just won last week as big underdogs even after the line jumped 8 points on game day as one of Brisbane's top scorers and all around players was out as his wife gave birth to their first child.

Geelong won the only matchup this year by 10 points, last year they split with Brisbane winning by 44 and Geelong winning by 1.

21.5 is 3 goals and basically 4 behinds (1 point scoring play), which seems like a lot for a semi-final to go to the Grand Final. Should be a good one, I wouldn't be shocked if Geelong won by 30+, as that happens all the time in this sport, but I'll be on Brisbane +21.5 in this one.

Good luck, and happy to see someone metion the AFL.

 

[jedi ninja]

By the way, the game goes off at 5:50am Eastern Friday morning.

Also not too many shops offer the AFL, I know that Carbon does as well as MyBookie (which is a sponsor here)...other than that I don't know a US book that does (Heritage may but I'm not sure).

 

[lvmike32]

lol. Your welcome. I liked his write up and thought I'd give it a shot. Know nothing about Aussie rules except that they score a lot more than in American football so 21.5 points isn't the same as it is in American football. but his thread was about 50/50 so a lot of folks are with you. GL too.

 

[lvmike32]

oh, I have Circa, BOL and BM and BOL and BM have it.

 

[lvmike32]

and both have it 22.5 now. thanks again for info

 

[jedi ninja]

and both have it 22.5 now. thanks again for info

It must be new to BOL this year, I'll have to check it out again.

In the other semi final, my boys Collingwood (the Magpies) are catching 17.5 and have been the darlings all year long. Lots of close wins, big comebacks, have one of the top rookies...and they finished 17th (out of 18) on the ladder last year. Historically they are like the Yankees or Cowboys. They're going to win outright.

 

[lvmike32]

Wow, sounds like a good ML opp. Do you think Aussie is any easier to beat than American? I assume not but it'd be nice to find.

 

[Timh]

BOL LVMIKE.

 

[KJ]

oh, I have Circa, BOL and BM and BOL and BM have it.

Caesars and DK have it. Assume most of the players in US do.

 

[carolinablue]

Hey not EVERYONE is on UAB haha

 

[lvmike32]

lol. Had to go back and look at your thread - your thread is one of my many reads. Yeah, you're the only one I recall on GA South but the line hasn't moved much so you're definitely not alone. I just go by the threads I read. I see it as you do. But the 3 guys I tail are all on UAB (very unusual) - still I only did 1u vs. 3u.

Oh FYI, I know you're not here in Nevada so not sure if you can get Circa or not. But they're dropping openers before BOL and it sure looks like BOL is using them as a guide. They were out an hour before BOL last Sunday. Some are different but many are the same. Also, one guy I tail looks like he's getting openers even sooner from FD or DK I think (for example, he has Iowa -19.5 and I never saw that). I don't think I can get either of those in NV. but FYI

 

[jedi ninja]

Caesars and DK have it. Assume most of the players in US do.

It looks like Caesar’s and DK, and probably BOL added this probably for the finals I’m guessing (their playoffs). All of the finals games are on Fox Sports so that would make sense if they only do it for those games with a bigger audience.

It was definitely not available during the year, or at least for the first month because I had to sign up at mybookie as they were the only ones who offered outside of my local. Even they were spotty with lines during the year, many weeks only offering money lines.

I even called both MGM and Caesar’s and spoke with someone who didn’t know what I was really talking about and said it wasn’t something they offered in NYS at the time (which I thought was odd). I didn’t call DK, figured I would get the same answer.

Good to know though, I see it at Caesar’s which is great, still nothing at MGM for Aussie Rules.

 

[carolinablue]

lol. Had to go back and look at your thread - your thread is one of my many reads. Yeah, you're the only one I recall on GA South but the line hasn't moved much so you're definitely not alone. I just go by the threads I read. I see it as you do. But the 3 guys I tail are all on UAB (very unusual) - still I only did 1u vs. 3u.

Oh FYI, I know you're not here in Nevada so not sure if you can get Circa or not. But they're dropping openers before BOL and it sure looks like BOL is using them as a guide. They were out an hour before BOL last Sunday. Some are different but many are the same. Also, one guy I tail looks like he's getting openers even sooner from FD or DK I think (for example, he has Iowa -19.5 and I never saw that). I don't think I can get either of those in NV. but FYI

Unfortunately we don’t have any of the mainstream sites yet like DK or FD here in NC so I just roll with BOL and BM. Hopefully those will come eventually as some of their openers would definitely be pounce worthy!

 

[lvmike32]

Unfortunately we don’t have any of the mainstream sites yet like DK or FD here in NC so I just roll with BOL and BM. Hopefully those will come eventually as some of their openers would definitely be pounce worthy!

understand. You can only do so much. If I'm doing openers on Sunday and can figure out how to download Circa and post here, I'll do it for you - big if LOL. The nice thing about Circa is they post all the games at once. But I don't think too many folks are betting openers at Circa so I don't think you lose anything at all with BOL. I don't see the Circa numbers changing much the first hour or so they're out.

 

[lvmike32]

It looks like Caesar’s and DK, and probably BOL added this probably for the finals I’m guessing (their playoffs). All of the finals games are on Fox Sports so that would make sense if they only do it for those games with a bigger audience.

It was definitely not available during the year, or at least for the first month because I had to sign up at mybookie as they were the only ones who offered outside of my local. Even they were spotty with lines during the year, many weeks only offering money lines.

I even called both MGM and Caesar’s and spoke with someone who didn’t know what I was really talking about and said it wasn’t something they offered in NYS at the time (which I thought was odd). I didn’t call DK, figured I would get the same answer.

Good to know though, I see it at Caesar’s which is great, still nothing at MGM for Aussie Rules.

Yeah, obviously haven't been looking until now. But I'll bet high school ping pong in Japan if I can make money. Was pleased that BOL and BM both had it, and at the # he posted. Figured it'd be like -29 or something. We'll see. Seems like a sharp guy but plenty like you opposite him. the line jumped to 23.5 but is back down to 21.5 last I looked. Guess it goes off in about 8 hours. GL

 

[lvmike32]

Hey guys, about even through Week 2 - some great cappers really struggling this year so far. So feel ok being even so far. Anyway, here are some of the main themes I'm seeing so far this week:

1. Seems everyone is on UAB -11/-12. As a donk, non-capper this is the type of game it's hard for me to see and bet that way. GA Southern just put up 650 yards on Nebraska and scored a zillion points and you're asking what looks like an offensively challenged UAB team to beat them by 2 TDs basically. I get it's all about the spot. But see a lot of folks on UAB and no one on GA South. So I'm on UAB -11.

2. Is Indiana the play of the week? Opened -8 and currently -6.5 so money has come on WK. I bet WK +8 at open (Bookie had Indiana -2 in his forecast) and got off at -6.5. I do like Indy in this one and will likely rebet at -6.5. They beat what looks like a pretty good Illinois team. More than that, I think WK is way down this year despite being 2-0. They struggled mightily vs. AP in opener and only led Hawaii 21-10 at half, scoring 0 points in the 1Q. Seems to me their offense is way down this year and this week it could get exposed. Couple sharps have it this way.

3. Seems S Alabama +14 or more vs UCLA and Texas St +31 or more vs Baylor are popular.

4. Houston/Kansas is the game I've seen the most on both sides.

5. My own donk analysis - like Penn St -3 vs. Auburn - basically a Harsin fade. PSU tested at Purdue and vs, scrappy Ohio and Auburn struggled mightily with SJSt who I think is down this year. And LSU +3 - see some on Miss St and no one on LSU. But I need to see Leach beat Kelly in LSU to believe it. Probably try for middle if I can get Miss St at PK but doesn't seem like that is going to happen.

My other leans when TT come out:

AF TT O31
WF TT O39
GA TT O38
CC TT O39

PS: Seen a guy from Australia put a Max Wager 12u bet on Geelong -21.5 in Aussie Rules football in Friday game. Put a unit on it.

Comments/feedback always welcome. thanks

Geelong wins by 71 i guess. Lol. Glad i added another 1.5u to it last night after reading more from the guy. Only other bet at 2u this weekend is Indiana-6.

 

[KJ]

lol. Had to go back and look at your thread - your thread is one of my many reads. Yeah, you're the only one I recall on GA South but the line hasn't moved much so you're definitely not alone. I just go by the threads I read. I see it as you do. But the 3 guys I tail are all on UAB (very unusual) - still I only did 1u vs. 3u.

Oh FYI, I know you're not here in Nevada so not sure if you can get Circa or not. But they're dropping openers before BOL and it sure looks like BOL is using them as a guide. They were out an hour before BOL last Sunday. Some are different but many are the same. Also, one guy I tail looks like he's getting openers even sooner from FD or DK I think (for example, he has Iowa -19.5 and I never saw that). I don't think I can get either of those in NV. but FYI

Circa is one of the 14 licenses given in this state but I haven't seen that they've actually opened up a place here. Speculation is that they'll either team up with the Coyotes when the new arena is built or Talking Stick which is probably the biggest casino in the state...but doesn't have a partner for sports yet. Didn't even think the app could be available though. Perfect timing to check because I really haven't done well with openers until October for CFB in the past. Have you had luck with it yet?

 

[lvmike32]

Circa is one of the 14 licenses given in this state but I haven't seen that they've actually opened up a place here. Speculation is that they'll either team up with the Coyotes when the new arena is built or Talking Stick which is probably the biggest casino in the state...but doesn't have a partner for sports yet. Didn't even think the app could be available though. Perfect timing to check because I really haven't done well with openers until October for CFB in the past. Have you had luck with it yet?

Hey KJ, I don't understand your question "Have you had luck with it yet?" - since I don't cap, on Sunday I take BookieAssassin's projected lines thread and compare them to Circa's openers, which dropped at 11:30am PST last Sunday. Any big discrepancies between Bookie and Circa I usually will bet and then see if they become plays - if not, the line usually moves favorably and I usually can get off of them with a little middle opportunity, eating the juice. Then BOL usually comes out a bit after Circa and I watch those.

CB bets openers with BOL - I was just telling him if he could get Circa, he could get a jump on what BOL opens with.

Let me know if there is something else I can answer. thanks

 

[KJ]

Hey KJ, I don't understand your question "Have you had luck with it yet?" - since I don't cap, on Sunday I take BookieAssassin's projected lines thread and compare them to Circa's openers, which dropped at 11:30am PST last Sunday. Any big discrepancies between Bookie and Circa I usually will bet and then see if they become plays - if not, the line usually moves favorably and I usually can get off of them with a little middle opportunity, eating the juice. Then BOL usually comes out a bit after Circa and I watch those.

CB bets openers with BOL - I was just telling him if he could get Circa, he could get a jump on what BOL opens with.

Let me know if there is something else I can answer. thanks

Was asking if you've had luck with the Circa app assuming they have one.

 

[jedi ninja]

Geelong wins by 71 i guess. Lol. Glad i added another 1.5u to it last night after reading more from the guy. Only other bet at 2u this weekend is Indiana-6.

Just a blood bath. Got the over to come in at least, but Brisbane couldn't get it going in the 1st half and then just got blitzed in the 3rd term, 7 goals to 2 and it was long over by then. That 3rd term is what got the over though as the first half was extremely low scoring.

Good one hopefully tomorrow morning, like to see at least one entertaining preliminary final this year. Buddy Franklin, his 1,000 career goals, and Sydney will be a tough task for the Magpies to overcome, but it's been quite the Cinderella run thus far let's hope it can continue one more week.

 

[lvmike32]

Was asking if you've had luck with the Circa app assuming they have one.

Oh Ok. Yeah their phone app works great. I have an old Galaxy S8 still. never had any issues. It's a little weak content wise i.e. no team totals and the Live betting isn't strong either. But app works great.

 

[lvmike32]

Just a blood bath. Got the over to come in at least, but Brisbane couldn't get it going in the 1st half and then just got blitzed in the 3rd term, 7 goals to 2 and it was long over by then. That 3rd term is what got the over though as the first half was extremely low scoring.

Good one hopefully tomorrow morning, like to see at least one entertaining preliminary final this year. Buddy Franklin, his 1,000 career goals, and Sydney will be a tough task for the Magpies to overcome, but it's been quite the Cinderella run thus far let's hope it can continue one more week.

Yeah I wish I'd bet 12u like the guy I tailed. LOL. I don't think I've ever seen it - I think what I've seen on TV in the past is Rugby, not sure. Sounds pretty exciting, at least there are a lot more points scored. When I first saw the 21.5 line I was thinking American football and how large that is for a playoff game. But then it made sense when I saw how many they can score in a game. Think score in this one was 120-49 - anyway, glad you got your over. GL if you bet the final.