Two huge things jumped out at me today and they're both bigger picture issues rather than exactly team-specific.
The first is that it's really easy by the end of the season to have a good read on a team. Obviously, but think about it. The season is three-plus months long. By the tims it's over, you know these teams. And I think that's one reason it can be so difficult that following season to adjust to what a team is now as opposed to what you've gotten used to them being. Or even what you imagine them being.
For example. Last year, pretty early on we all knew Jacksonville was going to be shit because Urban Meyer was over his head. So we had months to watch that team—at team which sucked for years before he got there—and then last year they just went out and sucked some more. They had a couple of moments, and they had some talent, but generally, Jacksonville sucked so bad how could you really see them turning it around by the start of this year.
Similarly, Houston was clearly doing nearly everything they could to tank last year even if nobody told Mills that was the plan. And they kept getting rid of their talent, so again, to turn the ship around in any meaningful way seemed really difficult.
And just like Houston, before this season started, it was pretty easy to paint Atlanta as this year's Texans. They looked like a team that was generally only trying to win like three games this season. Maybe fewer.
My point is, now that we're seeing these teams on the field, it's clear that the reality is different than the expectation (at least for me) and so what I'm trying to tell myself is, you have to let go of what you thought this team would be—especially if through these first three weeks they've proven they are something different.
Back to Jacksonville. This game I watched a good bit of today (God help me). And yes, the Chargers are banged up. And it got worse during the game, Bosa went out, so did Slater on the OL. And Herbert's nowhere near 100%. However, honestly, Jacksonville kicked the shit out of LA, injured or not. Lawrence looked good. Their offense looked good. And, to me, this is a perfect example of the other thing that hit me today, which is how adding a competent head coach can really improve your team almost overnight. This really became crystal clear to me today seeing the difference between a team like Jacksonville of last year and this.
Doug Petersen is good with QBs. I think Jacksonville is going to be a tough out for teams almost every week of the season.
Also, Lovie Smith is a quality turnaround coach. He's not going to be there if and when this Houston team gets the talent to be good again. But he's a guy that can take a 5-11 team and make them 8-8. Or you know, thereabouts now that we're at 17 games. Point being, Houston now is not Houston of last season. Neither is Jacksonville. Neither are the Bears really.
On the other side of this, and I know this is still really fresh in my mind, but I said it after week one and I'm still going to say it, I think Denver may have the worst head coach in the NFL. They won that game tonight in spite of him. Their defense is good, and they're going to win games, but this clown is going to cost them.
Well, shit, now that I'm typing this out I am thinking more things about specific teams ...
Speaking of the AFC, there's a chance the Raiders are just bad.
There's a chance Arizona is too. Honestly, the whole NFC West looks messy.
There's also a chance that without Mac Jones (I know the xrays were negative, but that looked A LOT like an ankle sprain), that New England is all kinds of fucked.
I have a ticket on the Colts to win their division at plus money and I have zero confidence it cashes even though I think every team in that division is average on their best day.
Carson Wentz sucks. Jalen Hurts is the man. And a Joe's heart is happy because fuck Carson Wentz. Also because Hurts has done nothing but everything you want your QB to do to win over a locker room and win games. I love it. Go Birds.
If I'm Cincy, I'm worried about my ability to pass block. Yes, still.
If I'm Cleveland, I'm worried about my ability to throw the ball.
If I'm Buffalo, I'm not worried about losing today.
If I'm Kansas City, I'm not worried about losing today either.
If I'm Indy I'm worried because, like Arizona, I think they may have a lot of problems under the surface that are going to implode that team.
I've I'm Baltimore I'm worried about all the injuries in my secondary.
If I'm Denver, I've realized my head coach is a chicken-fucker, my QB is a used dildo, and my offense may only be good for 13 points a game.
If I'm the Jets I'm worried because Flacco sucks and because for the last two weeks teams have pretty much done whatever they've wanted to us like we were BAR's sister all through junior college. Great gal though and she really got her life together after college. Not everyone can be the district manager of a White Castle for a significant period of time. I mean, Steed did it for like six weeks once, but that kind of proves my point, tbh.
If I'm Pittsburgh I'm terrified that my defense without Watt is going to wear down by about week six and we're going to start losing by double digits every week until we say 'Fuck it, it's Pickett time.'
If I'm Seattle I'm as worried now as I was before the start of the season. And I was a lot worried before the start of the season, a lot.
If I'm the Rams I'm worried that I'm old and it's already caught up to me.
If I'm the Bucs I'm worried that my offense isn't healthy enough to field a competitive side while my defense is good enough to win the NFC.
If I'm Green Bay I'm psyched because my defense is getting better every week and so are these young skill position players. I didn't find today's game in Tampa nearly as close as that score.
If I'm New Orleans I have kind of the same concern as Tampa. I need an offense to go with my defense.
If I'm Carolina I'm scared that Baker is going to blow up my team. And, honestly, he probably will.
If I'm Miami, I'm getting high as fuck tonight because we're 3-0 with two division wins and we're sitting pretty. I'm also low-key worried that we're going to get busted for sending Tua back into the game when he was clearly—CLEARLY—concussed. But that's kind of a front office problem.
If I'm Minnesota, I'm feeling pretty good right now. You played a really shitty game and still won. Major onions right there.
If I'm Detroit, I'm mad, but I honestly feel pretty good. As CTG will tell you, this team is going to be a tough out all season.
If I'm me, I need to tell myself to stop playing teasers. And then I need to tell me SHUT UP, YOU'RE NOT EVEN MY REAL DAD, I HATE YOU.
OK, that's it. I didn't even really think I had thoughts about today, but apparently I had some thoughts about today. Ha.
Oh, no, a couple more:
I lost on the Bills TT today, but I'm probably back on that next week.
I'm almost certainly playing Detroit overs at home and in domes until they lose. You won/lost/pushed today depending on the number you got, but combined those teams missed not one, but three FGs today. That was a dead over game.
As someone who likes overs, that KC, Arizona and Philly all fell well short of their totals today gives me hope that it will bring their numbers down just a touch in the near term. Which may feel weird to say about Arizona, but I throw today's game out, this is how those Rams games always go. I was dumb not to bet LAR. But I still think AZ has potentially offensively. And I love what Philly and KC can do in terms of putting points on the board. Like Balty and Buffalo, These teams should live at 24+ and that also makes a Joe happy.
OK, now I'm done. For now. Ha.
