Week 3 plays, leans, and week 2 review

[Dmoney416]

Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Straight plays: 6-10, -3.62u
Sides: 2-7, -7u
Game Totals: 4-1, +5.68u
Team Totals: 0-2, -2.30u
MLs:
Total: 6-10, -3.62u

Even more disappointing Week 2. Only reason I didn't get buried was due to the Okla St/Houston line mistake.

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 1-1
Last Week: L 26-52 at Oklahoma
Next: Bye
Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 1-0
Last Week: W 42-10 vs. Northern Colorado
Next: vs. Oregon

Week 3 plays:

Toledo/Eastern Michigan UNDER 58 (2.2u to win 2)
Temple/Buffalo OVER 41.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
North Carolina/Rutgers OVER 43.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Penn St./Syracuse OVER 50.5 (1.1u to win 1)<!-- / message -->
Bowling Green +17 (1.1u to win 1)
California -11.5 (1.1u to win 1)
MTSU +18 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Tulane +13 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Nebraska TT OVER 42 (1.1u to win 1)
Maryland +14 (1.1u to win 1) (middle)

Week 2 leans: (Bolded leans are stronger leans)

South Florida -3.5
Vanderbilt -7 - Almost certain play. Line makes zero sense.
Eastern Michigan -1
Purdue +7
Hawaii +11.5
Fresno St. +1 - Will play if it gets to 3.
Iowa St. +13.5 - I wonder if I like this simply due to the rivalry's history.
Western Michigan -8
TCU -12.5
UAB +29.5
Temple +6
Tulane +13
Ohio St. +10.5 - ????
Michigan St. -17
Western Kentucky +27.5
Middle Tennessee St. +16.5

Way more leans then usual - need to narrow them down. Also, I don't really care for the California bet, but it had to be played at 11.5. May consider middling that game. Write-ups and such are coming.

BOL to all this week. :cheers:

 

[Dmoney416]

Week 2 Review:

Houston/Oklahoma St. OVER 44: Obvious play given the number. Easy win, even at 60.

Wyoming -2: Guess I got what I deserved on this one. Funny thing is, I was encouraged early in the day when Ohio was sticking with Ohio St. It made me think I had simply misjudged Ohio in week 1 as opposed to Wyoming. I was dead wrong. Dax Crum is the worst collegiate QB I have personally seen this season. Stares down his WR right off of the snap. Offense was even more unimaginative than it was in week 1, if that's possible. Defense was solid, but they could only hold up for so long. QB change was made two quarters too late.

Eastern Michigan/Michigan St. UNDER 61: This is the only game of the week (the season?) where the game played out exactly how I thought it would. Michigan St. established the run all game (basically every 1st and 2nd down), and EMU contained it enough to keep Mich St. out of the 50s.

California -11: Right side I guess. Didn't see a play of this one, but it was over after the 1st quarter.

Navy/Ball St. OVER 60: The right side. Teams moved the ball at will for the most part. Navy was extremely effective between the 20s, but faltered in the red zone, kicking three FGs and turning it over on downs inside the Ball St. 5. There was only one punt in the game and the teams failed to score in the last 13 minutes.

Cincinnati +22: Within striking distance of the spread throughout, but it was probably the wrong side. While I didn't see a play, Oklahoma moved the ball at will throughout with the exception of two Bradford INTs. Cincy's failed fake punt deep in their own territory down 35-20 effectively ended the game. I was wrong about Cincy's defense here. Well done Oklahoma backers.

Kent St. +8.5: Final score is a bit deceiving. Iowa St. scored a meaningless one late and total yards were about the same. Kent St. turnovers did them in. Don't think this was a bad play, but I probably should have stayed away altogether.

Western Michigan TT OVER 29.5: Landed on 29. Probably should have steered clear of this game altogether as well. Western Michigan continues to baffle me.

 

[Dmoney416]

Box score observations/anomalies:

- South Carolina outgained Vandy by 100 yards, but lost the turnover battle by two. Succop missed two FGs. Vandy's punter Upson averaged only 34.7 yards on six punts.

- As mentioned above, there was only one punt in the Ball St./Navy game. The teams combined for 901 yards.

- Georgia Tech ran 40 times and attempted only 13 passes against Boston College. Five players had at least five carries for Boston College.

- Five of Eastern Michigan's first seven possessions resulted in three and outs. The other two: a possession with one first down and a TD drive. The TD drive included a 40 yard run by Blevins and a 38 pass to Stone where he was pushed out of bounds and returned to the field to catch it. Despite this, Michigan St. outgained EMU by only 78 yards (EMU had four plays of 30+ yards).

- Miami OH held the ball for 11 more minutes than Michigan. They also were 8-19 on 3rd down (0-2 on 4th) compared to Michigan's 2-10. Michigan ran 35 times while passing only 18. Both punters were fantastic: Miami OH's Richardson averaged 53.9 on seven punts (included four inside the 20 and a 74 yarder) and Michigan's averaged 45.4 on seven punts (included 3 inside the 20).

- Ohio turned it over five times and they were a combined 12-34 passing between Scott and Jackson.

- Despite the score, UConn and Temple combined for almost 700 yards of offense. Uconn ran 55 times to 22 passes. UConn's kicker Ciaravino was 2-5 on FGs, and both of Uconn's turnovers took place deep in Temple territory. 90 of DiMichele's 170 passing yards came from two passes.

- Wisconsin scored 51 unanswered points against Marshall. They had 329 passing yards to only 158 rushing.

- Illinois scored 47 despite turning it over five time against Eastern Illinois. They had 399 rushing yards on 53 carries.

- Florida International didn't cross midfield until very late in the 2nd quarter against Iowa. Iowa's QB duties were split between Stanzi and Christensen, but Stanzi got the start. Kicking duties were also split between Mossbrucker and Murray.

- Northern Colorado out-first downed Purdue 22-17. They also had the ball for just over 37 minutes.

- There were seven combined turnover in the USM/Auburn game. Southern Miss was 1-14 on 3rd down, but 3-4 on 4th. USM actually passed 50 times to 27 rushes. Fletcher had only 29 yards rushing on 13 tries.

- Despite a 35-12 final, Nebraska only led 14-9 after three quarters against San Jose St. Each team had 19 first downs, and SJSU outgained Nebraska 353-315. SJSU was a combined 2-4 on FGs and 0-1 on XPs. Nebraska had 12 penalties for 104 yards. SJSU QB Kyle Reed left the game with 12:00 left in the 4th with a presumed injury. Back-up Myles Eden went 1-7 for 55 yards and an interception.

- Army lost four fumbles against New Hampshire. Army chose to pass just 11 times even though QB Carson Williams was 7-7 for 95 yards and a TD.

- Va. Tech passed for only 68 yards against Furman, but they ran for 261. Tyrod Taylor was responsible for nearly half of the rushing yards. Va. tech only had 14 first downs to Furman's 13.

- BYU was 12-14 on 3rd downs against Washington. BYU punter Santiago averaged only 27.5 yards on two punts.

- Colorado St. needed a last second FG to beat Sacramento St. Colorado St. had the advantage in nearly every statistical category, but Sacto St. was 3-3 on 4th down. Colorado St. didn't punt at all.

- Colorado needed 14 points in the last 2:05 to beat Eastern Washington (the last TD being on an INT return with 1:40 left). The teams were even in just about every statistical category.

- Georgia had 552 total yards against Central Michigan.

- SDSU and ND were even in first downs, total yards, and time of possession. ND turned it over four times and missed a FG. SDSU turned it over twice, missed an XP, and had 11 penalties for 100 yards. Out of eight punts, SDSU's punter Stahovich had a long of only 39 and didn't have a single punt inside the 20 (33.4 avg.).

- Mississippi and Wake Forest were even in just about all categories. Wake won the turnover battle 3 to 1.

- Akron was 10-14 on third down. Jacquemain was 20-26 passing for 260 yards. Cameron Dantley started at QB over Robinson (injury?). They avoided using him too much, as they ran 43 times to only 20 pass attempts.

- Bradford threw for 395 yards against Cincy. Oklahoma was only 6-13 on 3rd down, but they were 3-3 on 4th down. Cincy was 3-5 on 4th down.

- Daryll Clark has seemingly won the starting job at PSU. Penn St. also ran for 239 yards on only 38 carries. Oregon St. punter Hekker only managed a 27.2 avg on five punts.

- Clemson allowed The Citadel to gain 427 total yards, including 338 passing. However, The Citadel missed two FGs and turned it over three times.

- Oregon had 688 total yards against Utah St.

To be continued.

 

[Dmoney416]

- Wyoming turned it over five times against Air Force. AF had 15 yards passing on four tries. AF punter Geyer averaged 50.3 yards on seven punts.

- Richmond had only one fewer 1st down than Virginia, but they were 1-12 on third down. They also turned it over three times and missed two FGs. Virginia had 9 penalties for 103 yards. Virginia led 3-0 until the middle of the 4th quarter.

- Florida Atlantic had a 73 yard run from Charles Pierre with :40 left in the game to cover the spread against UAB.

- 77 of Idaho's 170 passing yards against Idaho St. came 30 seconds into the game on a 77 yard pass from Enderle to Shaw.

- New Mexico turned it over four times against A&M, but they outgained them in just about every category. A&M's backup QB Jerrod Johnson went 10-19 for 124 yards and 3 TDs.

- William and Mary had 16 first downs to NC St's 11. NC ST was 2-16 on 3rd down, but 2-2 on fourth down. NC ST had only 67 rushing yards on 30 carries. W&M turned it over four times.

- Pitt and Buffalo were nearly even in every statistical category.

- California had 3 TDs of 65 yards or more. Washington St. had 57 yards on 35 carries. They also were 1-12 on third down with 4 turnovers.

- Kent St. outgained and out-first downed Iowa St, but they turned it over four times.

- Duke had 28 1st downs to Northwestern's 14. Duke also had almost 150 more yards than Northwestern (472-328). Duke held the ball for 39:15.

- Tulane had 18 first downs to Alabama's 11. They also outgained Alabama 318-172. Tulane missed two FGs. Alabama had two special teams TDs.

- Arky St. had 441 yards on 44 carries in an 83-10 win over Texas Southern. (Side note: ex-Oklahoma St. QB Bobby Reid was 3-12, 52 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT).

- Not sure how UCF stayed in the game against USF. USF had more than double the first downs and total yards of UCF. UCF also had 12 penalties for 148(!) yards. USF's Alvarado was 1-3 on FGs.

- Todd Reesing was 32-38 for 412 yards and 3 TDs against La. Tech (this was without leading WR Dexton Fields).

- After an 0-1 day on Saturday, Maryland's kicker Egekeze is now 0-4 on FGs this year after going 17-23 last year.

- Arkansas needed a last minute TD to defeat ULM despite a 506-341 yardage advantage. Neither team turned the ball over. Arkansas did miss 2 FGs and an XP. After missing those three kicks, Arkansas kicker Tejada was then taken out and replaced by Shay Haddock, who would hit two late extra points.

- TCU allowed only 3 yards on 17 attempts against SF Austin.

- Northern Illinois outgained Western Michigan 439-384 in their loss to the Broncos (much of this, however, can be attributed to NIU's late drive for the backdoor cover).

- There 1182 yards of offense between Houston and Oklahoma St. Each team had 28 first downs. Six of Ok St.'s TDs were from 28 yards out or more. Despite 320 yards passing, only three receivers caught balls for the Cowboys. Dez Bryant had 236 yards receiving and a 71 yard punt return for a score.

- BG and Minnesota were nearly even in every offensive category, but Bowling Green turned it over five times. BG turned it over three times in the 4th quarter alone - all three led to Minnesota TDs (two of the drives started inside the BG 30). Bowling Green committed 0 penalities in the game.

- For those that didn't see, Rice used 29 fourth quarter points (22 in the last 6:28) to beat Memphis. This included a 69 yard INT return with :11 left. Memphis outgained Rice 523-430.

- Utah had 35 unanswered points in their 42-21 win over UNLV.

- SMU almost blew a 30-6 lead against Texas St. They won 47-36 due to five Texas St. turnovers. SMU was outgained 465-431, out-first downed 26-19, and allowed Texas St. to go 12-15 on 3rd downs.

- Nevada outgained Texas Tech 488-421. However, Nevada was just 3-16 on third down, which forced them into 6 FG attempts. They were 4-6 in those tries.

- Arizona St. dominated the game against Stanford, but they did have 10 penalties for 107 yards.

- UTEP outgained Texas 412-404 and held the ball for 36 minutes. However, UTEP was penalized 11 times for 97 yards, and they were only 2-4 on FGs. Texas was only forced into six third downs, but they were just 1-6 in those situations.

- Hawaii trailed 17-7 at the half against Weber St., but scored 29 unanswered in the 2nd half to win. It should be noted that Graunke came in for Funaki at the start of the 2nd half and went 13-20 for 218 yards and 3 TDs (compared to Funaki's 7-14 for 87 yards in the 1st half). Weber St. had -20 rushing yards on 26 carries.

 

[Dmoney416]

Bad News:

<TABLE class=BlogMain_MabAuthTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=BlogMain_MabAuthTableRight>Grutza needs surgery after all

Posted by BKoch at 9/8/2008 7:23 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

It turns out that quarterback Dustin Grutza’s injury is worth than it appeared Saturday. After further examination Monday, it was determined that there was collateral damage relative to a high ankle sprain and that Grutza will require surgery, which is expected to be done possibly as early as Wednesday. It’s unclear until the surgery is performed how long Grutza will be out, but it will almost certainly be longer than the original four-week estimate.

 

[broadwayjoe]

i would lean your way on a lot of those dmoney..and i'm on temple and sfla...gl this week...excellent anomaly stuff i love to read

curious to read your bg and purdue reasoning...

 

[Inspekdah]

Eyeing USF myself to get me back on track after NW/ND debacle last weekend.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Agree with ya on Vandy...the Dores are already on my card. GL this week DMoney!

:cheers:

 

[Dmoney416]

Thanks joe, In, and Aztec.

joe - I'll get to my BG and Purdue reasoning soon.

Added:

Toledo/Eastern Michigan UNDER 58 (2.2u to win 2)
Temple/Buffalo OVER 41.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
North Carolina/Rutgers OVER 43.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Penn St./Syracuse OVER 50.5 (1.1u to win 1)

 

[Dmoney416]

Baylor bet was cancelled because the game has moved up to Friday. Was the venue even changed? Convenient fucking way for them to get themselves out of a horrendous opening line.

 

[Dmoney416]

Sorry I couldnt get to anyone's questions. Heading to PSU/Cuse and spent the week tying up loose ends.

Final plays:

MTSU +18 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Tulane +13 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Nebraska TT OVER 42 (1.1u to win 1)
Maryland +14 (1.1u to win 1) (middle)

GL to all this week.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

GL man..