Week 3 plays/leans, and week 2 recap

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 3 plays/leans, and week 2 recap, and Cincy/Miami OH news

Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Straight plays: 10-9, +3.55u
MLs: 0-1, -0.5u
Total: 10-10, +3.05u

Season plays:
Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): L 0-35, 0-2 :cheers:
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): W 69-14, 2-0 :cheers:
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): W 16-12, 2-0 :cheers:

Another mediocre week, but as long as there is a + sign after the record, I can't complain too much. Disappointing though as the early action started off very well. On the plus side, another good week for the season plays, including a big dog win by South Car.

Week 3 plays:

Michigan St -7 (-120) (3u to win 2.5)
Houston -14 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Ball St/Navy Over 51 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Alabama -3 (2.2u to win 2)
Western Michigan +20 (2.2u to win 2) - An ML play is possible as well if there is a number. This spread is ridiculous IMO.
Cincinnati -9 (2.2u to win 2)
Toledo/Kansas Under 67 (2.2u to win 2)
Rice/Texas Tech Over 63 (2.2u to win 2)
Vanderbilt -5.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Central Michigan/Purdue Over 63.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Toledo +24.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Western Michigan ML +1350 (0.3u to win 4.05u)

Leans:

Temple +29
Central Michigan +22
Navy -7



Write-ups to come on my plays, including my opinion on Miami OH/Cincinnati. While the perceived top of the MAC (WMU, CMU, and Toledo) has been poor through two weeks, I am shocked by the disrespect they are being shown in these week 3 lines.

GL to all this week. :cheers:
 
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Hmmmm i am in a lot of agreement here already which means you are in some trouble

Week 2 plays:

Michigan St -7 (-120) (3u to win 2.5) made this lower actually. not touching.
Houston -14 (2.75u to win 2.5) on my leans list
Alabama -3 (2.2u to win 2) also on my leans list
Western Michigan +20 (2.2u to win 2) - An ML play is possible as well if there is a number. This spread is ridiculous IMO. playing this game also. cant get a 20 where i have cash yet.
Vanderbilt -5.5 (1.65u to win 1.5) small lean here too

Leans:

Temple +30 can i play them three weeks in a row ? i think this is too many
Florida Atlantic +10 worried about the athlete difference enough that i am not playing it though minny cant be trusted to beat a veteran team on the road by ten
Ohio St. -3.5 have a strong lean to this side as well
Toledo +21 already played it
Central Michigan +20 no opinion
Navy -6.5 i liked this when i saw it on schedule but expected a 3 or 4. pass defense of navy vs ball state attack concerned me
San Jose St. +7 should stanford be laying this many to a team like sjsu ? prolly not but this is third game of absofuckinglutely brutal road stretch for sjsu so i wont be on it

Write-ups to come on my plays, including my opinion on Miami OH/Cincinnati. While the perceived top of the MAC (WMU, CMU, and Toledo) has been poor through two weeks, I am shocked by the disrespect they are being shown in these week 3 lines.

GL to all this week. :cheers:

you are an ohio insider for some of us and look forward to your analysis of that cincy/miamioh game. i mentioned in AIM chat at line release tht i thought this was the hardest line for the bookies to make.
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VK - Don't get too excited about the Cincy write-up, as at first glance they put a pretty good line out on this one.

SJSU will only be considered if/when Yonus Davis plays.

My gut feeling is that Navy thrashes Ball St. The BSU passing attack will get theirs against Navy, but I feel it is too inconsistent to do too much damage. Ball ST. gave up 4.9 ypc and they wont stop Navy. Give me the disciplined rushing attack of Navy any day. However, I missed 5, so I'll have to see how this line goes and play it by year.

Ray - You are correct. Thanks for pointing that out. It is edited now.
 
dmoney..i was thinking of taking Mizzou half and game..why shouldn't I?
 
Hunt, I don't have time to write it up right now, but I'll give give a detailed write-up once I get home this afternoon/night.
 
HUNTDOG said:
dmoney..i was thinking of taking Mizzou half and game..why shouldn't I?
Click to expand...

because you will get backdoor covered because of their defense?

thats what I am thinking. I was down to play Missouri if it was like -13 but I can't consider -20.
 
Western Michigan (+20) vs. Missouri

First of all, I would be pretty uncomfortable laying anymore than two TDs with this Missouri team. This is not only because Gary Pinkel is their coach, but they get very complacent once they get a lead, always leaving the possibility for a cover if they happen to jump out early.

Week 1: They lead 37-13, Illinois comes back behind the arm of Eddie McGee (who?) and fall just short, 40-34.

Week 2: They lead Mississippi 35-7 in the third quarter, they end up winning 38-25. Mississippi was threatening for more points late before throwing an INT at the goalline.

Western Michigan has been bad in these first two weeks, giving up 99 points through two games. Now, there is no way to make this look good, but I don't think that it is nearly as bad as it seems. The strange thing is that the WMU D was the team's strength LY, giving 2.6 ypc, 199 yards passing per game, and recording 46 sacks (3.5 per game).

However, this season, they have given up 62 to WVU and 37 to Indiana. Now, the Indiana game was not nearly as bad as it seemed. WMU has five turnovers in this game, leading directly to 21 Indiana points (one of which was a defensive TD). WMU also turned the ball over once in the IU redzone, spoiling what was surely at least 3 points. Both of these teams (WVU and Indiana) did the majority of their damage on the ground.

The WMU offense has been solid when they can hold onto the ball. They have a -5 turnover ratio and have cost themselves seveal scoring chances with eight TOs through two games. The rushing game has yet to pick up behind Brandon West, but Hiller already has 500 yards passing. WMU figures to be passing often against Missouri anyway.

Missouri, on the other hand, has beenfitted from a +5 TO ratio. They needed 5 TO from Illinois in order to seal victory. We all know about the Mizzou offense, and they will get theirs in this game. However, they figure to be passing more often than not, and despite giving up 99 points thus far, WMU's run defense has been worse than the pass D. WMU led the NCAA with 24 INT LY, and they return everyone to a secondary that is supposed to have some NFL prospects.

Missouri has given up nearly 1000 yards this season. They have given up over 300 yards passing in each of their first two games, which included over 250 yards passing from Illinois back-up QB Eddie McGee and over 300 yards passing from Ole Miss QB Seth Adams. Tim Hiller should have his way in this one. After struggling a bit against WVU in his 1st game after surgery, he looked much better vs. Indiana with 330 yards and 3 TDs. Missouri also gave up over 220 yards rushing to BenJarvis Green-Ellis. While WMU's RBs do not compare to Ellis, Missouri's D is porous enough that Brandon West and co. can keep them honest.

Also, hidden behind Missouri's great offense is their shaky special teams. Jeff Wolfert is 3-5 on FGs, but he has missed all of his FG attempts from 40+. Punter Adam Crossett has been sub-par thus far as well, averaging only 34 yards per punt on 11 tries.

On paper, given WMU's early defensive struggles, it seems like Missouri should blow them away. Will Missouri put up points here? Absolutely. However, I feel like Missouri has benefitted from turnovers early while WMU has suffered from them, which skews their stats a little bit. Combine that with Missouri's porous defense and general complacency, and I think you have a close game where WMU has an outside chance of winning.

38-30 Missouri
 
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heheh , i see the same value for many of the same reasons. hope we cash the broncos ticket
 
oh and in addition to the turnover stats ... western michigan has had 27 penalties for 228 yards over first two games. cant be worse in that department.
 
vegaskyle said:
oh and in addition to the turnover stats ... western michigan has had 27 penalties for 228 yards over first two games. cant be worse in that department.
Click to expand...

Yep, they couldn't really be any worse in the mental mistakes area then they were in the first 2 games. I also refuse to think that this defense is that bad after returning 8 starters from a great defense last year.
 
Two RedHawk starters suffer knee injuries
Click-2-Listen
By Pete Conrad

Staff Writer

Sunday, September 09, 2007

MINNEAPOLIS — Injuries took a heavy toll on the Miami University football team in its 41-35 triple overtime loss at Minnesota on Saturday afternoon, costing the RedHawks perhaps their two best players.

Joey Hudson, Miami's All-Mid-American Conference middle linebacker, was knocked out of the game with an injury to his right knee with 6:04 remaining in the first quarter. Just like that, the RedHawks had lost the anchor of their defense.

After Miami's only touchdown of the first half, Mike Kokal's 24-yard pass to Dustin Woods, placekicker Trevor Cook missed the extra-point wide left and then turned his right ankle when he was flattened by a Minnesota lineman.

Cook's injury wasn't serious. He came back in the second half to kick two field goals, including the 36-yarder that tied the game with 11 seconds left in regulation, but then was wide right on a 33-yard attempt that would have won it in overtime.

The third casualty of the first half came when defensive end Jordan Stevens hurt his back. The redshirt freshman also was able to return in the second half.

The second injury to a Miami star came with 9:25 left in the fourth quarter. Senior tailback Brandon Murphy was leveled by Minnesota cornerback Jamal Harris, who forced and recovered a fumble that led to the Golden Gophers' fourth touchdown, which appeared to put the game out of reach at 28-12.

After a couple minutes, Murphy sat up and was helped off the field with an injured right knee. Murphy, who seemed headed for his second straight 100-yard game with 78 yards on 12 carries, was unable to return. The extent of his injury is unknown.

Channeling strength

Had it not been for two big defensive plays made by sophomore Martin Channels, Miami's 6-foot, 335-pound nose tackle, Minnesota might have led 21-3 at halftime instead of 14-9.

Channels forced the fumble that led to Miami's only touchdown of the half. The recovery was made by Caleb Bostic, who returned the ball 3 yards to the Minnesota 42 with 8:02 left in the second quarter.

The Gophers' next possession was stopped again by Channels. Minnesota went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Miami 5-yard line, and Channels slammed into running back Amir Pinnix for a 1-yard loss.

RedHawks settle for 3

The RedHawks didn't take full advantage of one of the more electrifying plays in Saturday's contest, the blocked punt by sophomore running back Andre Bratton in the first quarter.

Miami's defense, which had allowed five first downs on the first seven plays of the previous drive, resulting in a 8-yard touchdown run by quarterback Adam Weber and a 7-0 lead for Minnesota, bounced back to stop the Golden Gophers on three plays, including a key third-down tackle shared by linebackers Bostic and Chris Shula.

Shula had come into the game after Hudson had been injured on the previous play. Bratton got through the line of scrimmage clean, and punter Justin Kucek never had a chance. The RedHawks recovered the ball at the Gophers' 31.

Two quick passes from Kokal to Jamal Rogers and Tom Crabtree gave Miami a first-and-goal from the 10.

But then a Miami penalty, an ineligible receiver downfield, negated a high-reaching catch by Woods at the 3-yard line, and the RedHawks had to settle for a 34-yard field goal by Cook.
 
RJ, According to the Sports Network:

CINCINNATI - No significant injuries.

MIAMI-OHIO -
*Linebacker Joey Hudson (9/10, leg) is doubtful for Saturday's game against Cincinnati.

*Running back Brandon Murphy (9/10, right knee) is questionable for Saturday's game against Cincinnati.

*Guard Matt McKeown (9/10, shoulder) is questionable for Saturday's game against Cincinnati.

Offensive tackle Heath Cartwright (8/19, back) is expected to miss the entire season.

The bolded players are starters. Hudson led the team in tackles and INTs last season and is considered the team's best defender. Murphy is the starting RB.
 
Added:

Cincinnati -9 (2.2u to win 2): I originally thought that this would be a no play, but further research along with the possible Miami OH injuries have indicated to me that this is a play.
 
Cincinnati -9 at Miami OH

After Cincinnati beat Oregon St. last week, I figured there would be no value in this line this week, and after looking at the initial line, I figured that I was right. However, looking further, I found that Cincy is the play here.

Lately, Cincinnati has been poor as a road favorite, as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five. I also do not like to lay this much chalk in a rivalry game, but I think that talent differential is enough to push Cincy over the top.

One plus is that this team is very road tested, as they played four top 11 teams on the road last season. They were 2-2-1 ATS in these games. They lost by 30 at #1 Ohio St. (OSU puts in a meaningless FG late for the cover), by 16 to #11 Va. Tech as 27.5 dogs (game was 14-13 entering the 4th quarter), by 6 @ #7 Louisville as 25 point dogs, by 18 @ #10 WVU as 18 point dogs, and they beat UConn by 3 as 5 point favs.

In last year's game, Cincinnati defeated Miami OH 24-10 as 11 point favorites. In this game, Cincinnati ran all over Miami OH with a RBBC approach. They had 253 yards rushing on 42 carries (6 ypc). Greg Moore ran 20 times for 119 yards, Butler Benton ran 8 times for 68 yards, and Bradley Glatthaar ran for 9 times for 43 yards. All of these RBs are back this season, and while the outlook of the offense has changed, I am sure that Kelly will not be afraid to run if it works early. Cincinnati was also able to win and cover this game despite a meager performance from the passing game. Grutza was 5/11 for 43 yards, a TD, and an INT. Ben Mauk is an upgrade over Grutza, and I expect them to be more successful here.

Miami's offense was shut down for the most part. Daniel Raudabaugh got the start for Miami OH in this game last year, and he threw for 190 yards and 2 INTs on 21-47 passing. Brandon Murphy (questionable) did all of the damage on the ground with 59 yards on 13 carries. Miami OH's only TD? An 80 yard punt return by Ryne Robinson (he also had 52 yards receiving in this game). He was their top WR last season and is now since graduated.

Each team had 3 turnovers in the game, so that is a wash. Cincy's points also came on short drives, but Miami OH's offense was completely shut down.

On to this year's game, where I think that Cincy is improved. Anyone who saw the Oregon St. game knows that this Cincy D is surprisingly fast. The front seven is intact and should do the job on any running game. The secondary is also very good with Nakamura and Mickens anchoring the pass D.

Kokal is an improvement for Miami OH at QB, but he has split time with Raudabaugh so far and both have been average. However, the loss of Robinson hurt this team badly both in the WR and the return areas. With Murphy banged up now, you have to question the team's depth at RB as well.

The team's best defensive player, Joey Hudson (97 tackles, 5 INT LY) is currently listed as doubtful and starting Guard Matt McKeown is listed as questionable here.

If Hudson doesn't play, that means five of the team's top eight leading tacklers from last season would be gone for this game.

Miami OH also gave up an astounding 49 sacks (4.1 per game!!!) last season. The Cincinnati D-Line is widely considered the strength of this team, and if the Miami OH O-Line is not ready, they could be in for a long day.

What keeps me from going big on this game is that Cincinnati's offense (despite 103 points in the first two games) has not really done anything yet. Look at their scoring drives vs. Oregon St:

4 plays, -1 yards (FG)
3 plays, 31 yards (TD)
2 plays, 2 yards (TD)
Punt Block (TD)
2 plays, 53 yards (TD)
7 plays, 17 yards (FG)

It is obvious the offense is not quite there yet. Having said that, Miami OH's D is not Oregon St's and Cincy's D should be more than enough to carry them to a cover.

Cincinnati 27
Miami OH 10
 
I generally don't get swayed on a game from one write-up, but you really got me interested in Western Michigan...
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" width="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">with you on UC.. +1350 @ my book for wmu, gl buddy
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From Josh K's Blog (Cincy Columnist)

Montgomery said he didn't know whether Mike Kokal or Daniel Raudabaugh would start at quarterback, and he said running back Brandon Murphy and linebacker Joey Hudson wouldn't play because of injuries.
 
Good Luck,

I am on Western Michigan +21............let's cash it. I know this Mizzou team as I am a Mizzou alum, and Western Michigan also from recollection runs the spread offense, and further saw it the first two weeks in different variations, so they should be ready to put forth a decent defensive effort here. I won't rehash all of your comments.
 
Added the following totals:

Ball St/Navy Over 51 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Toledo/Kansas Under 67 (2.2u to win 2)
Rice/Texas Tech Over 63 (2.2u to win 2)
Central Michigan/Purdue Over 63.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

10 plays already, which matches my amount of plays from each of the first two weeks. Probably end up with 12-13 plays this week as I see more value than usual.
 
Adding:

Western Michigan ML +1350 (0.3u to win 4.05u) - Hey, I made myself look stupid with Rice ML last week, why not do it again?

:whip:
 
I kind of like that navy/ballst total myself but i can never bring myself to pull an over bet out when navy is playing. Just the same ... Navy can run the hell out of the ball ... and ball state cannot defend the run ...... and Ball state can throw the ball ..... and navy cannot defend the pass. Seems like ingredients for an over.
 
Adding:

Toledo +24.5 (1.65u to win 1.5): Dr. Bob forced my hand on this one. This line is just too damn high.

That might be it for the week. One or two more at absolute most. If anyone wants write-ups on any of these, just let me know.
 
I wish I had that Toledo line with you...I've got it at +21 and still really like it.

BOL to us all this weekend...
 
hey..

Still feel ok about Cinci-MOH?

I have just been thinking about this game and I am getting worried, please calm me down
 
One of the great threads weekly..thanks for your hard work in here

The card looks great and you got some excellent numbers
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
hey..

Still feel ok about Cinci-MOH?

I have just been thinking about this game and I am getting worried, please calm me down
Click to expand...

Yep. I know it is not a great spot with the road rivalry game and all, but in the end Miami OH will have a very difficult go on offense. -9 sucks, but I'll have to live with it - it is the risk of jumping on games early.
 
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