Week 3 Plays and Thoughts

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
5 Unit Plays: 0-0
4 Unit Plays: 0-0
3 Unit Plays: 2-2
2 Unit Plays: 5-3
1 Unit Plays: 1-2
Plays of the Wk: 0-0
SoCar Games: 1-1
Totals: 1-0
Overall: 8-7 +3.15units
SC Season Wins O7 (2-0) 3.6 to Win 3.

Wk 1: 1-5 -10.05units
Wk 2: 7-2 +13.2units

I would like to establish some consistency here. Will add thoughts later, just some line predictions on games I am interested in...I suck at this


UConn -27
Purdue -16
Iowa -17
Missouri -13
Wash +3
Fla -6
Oky -40
UCLA -13
So Miss -5
Bama +2
Vandy -4
Hous -13
BC +3
Tex Tech -24
USC -9
BYU -6
ASU -17
Colorodo +6
Stanford -7
 
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jeezus...there is one line (estimate) there that would literally make me wet myself if it came true.
bar knows what it is...and i'll share it tomorrow, as we wait for the lines. but dayum, i hope it's close to what u estimated.
 
will look into these in-depth tonight:
So Miss -5
Bama +2
Vandy -4
Hous -13

Nice win for the Gamecocks vs UGA this weekend! And it looks like we were spot-on with MIzzou. GL, etg...
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
jeezus...there is one line (estimate) there that would literally make me wet myself if it came true.
bar knows what it is...and i'll share it tomorrow, as we wait for the lines. but dayum, i hope it's close to what u estimated.
Click to expand...


i don't know which game you are talking about but i am prob way off



BC- thanks, was a good win. Now in 2wks i won't feel bad when we get dominated. Missouri def took care of business
 
i would really like alabama +2. I do not believe Uconn should be favored more than 24 against temple. I know temple is bad but not 27 points bad. Iowa -17 and USC -9 are also solid plays.
 
Bout 3 hours until the lines come out, some week 3 preparation. Just a little thought and a prediction on the line.

TCU/AF: TCU just lost what would be their Superbowl so not sure where the teams head is at. Do they come out looking to rebound or do they spend most of the week dwelling on what could of been. AF moved to 2-0 with a win over Utah. The ground game is a tough scheme to stop. TCU has won 4 of last 5 and the last 2 games by 24 and 35 points. TCU -13

Oklahoma St/Troy: No way I lay points on the road with OK St so the only thing I would consider playing here is Troy +points which would have to be a lot for me to bight. Troy +21.5

Temple/UConn: Yea, I laid money on Temple in WK2 and now I will fade those fuckers. No reason to lose 42-7 to a team not much better than you. UConn with the game at home has opened the yr with 2 dominating wins over Duke and Maine, both of which could prob beat Temple. UConn -27

Pitt/ Mich St: I don't like Pitt much but this is a revenge game for them. MSU was not all that impressive in the win over BGSU while Pitt started the yr with Grambling and EMU. MSU -6

Illy/ Cuse: Fade Cuse and their terrible offense. The good thing here is that Illinois is not a powerhouse so the line will be playable. This game is at Cuse but it is a revenge game for Illinois. There is no question who the more talented team with the better offense is. Illinois -6

Cincinatti / MiOH: I think Cinnci is a team who you can count on that will play hard every game. The offense will gradually come along this season but the defense is tough. They should give Miami OH all types of trouble here in my mind and HC is familiar with MAC opponents. Cinci -10

Central Mich/ Purdue: I knew coming into the season that Purdue would be good on offense. So far vs. two MAC teams, they are 2-0 with a combined score of 104-30. They have averaged 300 through the air and 200 on the ground. It will take a good defense to slow them down and not sure CM has it. CM is off a 20 point win over Toledo but take a step up in class here. Purdue -16

Iowa / Iowa ST: The only thing ISU has going for it right now is that the game is at home. Iowa has won 3 of the last 4 in this series and Iowa St is coming off a loss vs. Northern Iowa which makes ISU the 3rd best team in their state. I will say that I hate betting games that involve ISU so maybe I will just skip this thriller. Iowa -17

WMich/ Missouri: After playing 1 game on the road and 1 at a neutral site, the Tigers return to Columbia for their home opener. Western Mich comes in at 0-2 with losses to Indiana and WVU. They have given up over 200 yards through the air and on the ground so far this yr on defense per game. Missouri offense def gets to about 35+ here, the defense is some what of a concern to me though. Maybe an over look here. Missouri -13

OSU/ Washington: Locker has bursted onto the scene with two big games, the Huskie defense is playing solid and they are a live home dog here vs. an OSU team that I have not been impressed with yet. They have only played juggernauts YSU and Akron but they have looked sluggish on their way to victory. Both teams have been strong on defense vs. the rush so whichever can win that battle will likely win this game. Washington +3, +4

Tenny/ Flor: Tennessee dropped a tough game last season to UF and they will look for revenge here but they have had their share of question marks in the first two games this season. Tenny will likely try to test the UF defense which is inexperienced but UF should be able to throw points on the board vs. Tenny defense which has has trouble stopping anything this yr. This will be the first test of the season for Tebow and the gators but I have to side with the home team here. Meyer is yet to lose at home as a HC at Florida. UF -6

Utah St / Oklahoma: This is a game where I am not afraid of the long spread. Oklahoma has been great on both sides of the ball and they run up the score when given the chance. Utah St sucks, plain and simple. Oky -40

UCLA / Utah: When Brian Johnson went down, so did the Utah season. The offense is lost with out him and facing a pretty tough defense from UCLA will not help the cause. Although UCLA was outgained by nearly 200 yards in the game vs. BYU, they have been able to move the ball on the ground and through the air this yr. UCLA -13

So Miss / ECU: ECU comes into this game with some momentum after beating UNC. SoMiss is coming off a loss vs. Tennesseee but they will look for revenge here and a chance to take the drivers seat in CUSA. So Miss wants to run the ball and ECU wants to stop the run. Should be a battle here..So Miss -5

Arkansas/ Bama: We have a home dog and a team who I feel is overrated. Arkansas brings their 1 dimensional offense to Alabama for what should be a pretty important game for the SEC-West. Arkansas had 2 weeks to game plan for this game while Bama will play their second SEC game in a row. Arkansas pulled out a 24-23 win last yr and it was by the skin of their teeth. Bama +2

Ole Piss / Vandy: Vandy does not want to lose on their home turf two games in a row. Ole Miss comes in 1-1 after a 13point loss to Missouri. Vandy suffered a loss to Bama in WK2 and rebounding is important here. The Vandy offense should have little to no trouble moving the ball vs. Ole Miss who can not stop anything. This is a revenge game for Vandy as well.. Vandy -4

Houston / Tulane: Looks like Tulane has no defense, anyone who gives up 38points to Miss St has serious issues on that side of the ball. Alridge will likely break a lot of runs in this game as Houston rolls to their first CUSA win of the yr. Hous -17

BC / GT: An ACC showdown which will feature a good offense vs. a good defense. I am very interested in this game and have been impressed with what I have seen from BC so far this yr on the offensive side of things. Matt Ryan is likely the best player in the ACC.. GT did good vs. ND but there were a few things I did not like about them that I felt would later hurt them. I don't think Bennett if called on is ready to put the game on his shoulders. I think if you contain Choice, you have a very good shot to win the game. The good thing is how BC matches up in this game. BC is very strong vs. the rush and weak vs. the pass. GT is very good with the run and weak with the pass. BC +3

Tex Tech/ Rice: Rice is very very bad. Texas Tech can score a lot of points. Texas Tech-24

USC/Nebraska: I think the opening week game with Idaho means very little in this game. Carrol and one of the best defenses in the country have 2 weeks to get ready for Nebraska and that is not good for the Cornhuskers and Keller who has yet to look real good. I originally thought this line would be lower but I have seen changed my mind on that. USC -13

BYU / Tulsa: I was not real high on Max Hall coming into the yr because I did not know what to expect from him and he had to fill the shoes of a very good QB. Hall has performed pretty well in his 2starts this yr and the BYU offense can move the ball, case in point, outgaining UCLA by 200 yards in WK2. Tulsa has 2 weeks to prapare for this game and it is a revenge game for them since BYU rolled by 25 last yr. I only have 1 performance to observe Tulsa but I would guess they have added a few more packages to the offense on the off week. The run a hurry-up no huddle offense so it is important to control the ball and keep your defense off the field if you want to perform at a high level vs Tulsa. BYU-6

SDST/ASU: This game should get ugly for SDST who is fade material until proven otherwise. ASU has a balanced attack that can score some points and that is pretty much the bottom line here. ASU -24

FSU / Colorodo: FSU has looked very bad on offense this yr and that is a problem because it means they can't cover spreads. Colorodo has shown improvement from last season and they can out some points on the board. They are home, they can score, and they will be getting points.. Colorodo +6

SJST / Stanford: I have my eye very close to this game. SJST is in trouble and this is a big revenge game for Stanford who was defeated 35-34 last season by SJST. The problem is that without their leading rusher, the SJST offense is in bad shape. Add in the fact that not only is this a revenge game but Stanford has had 2 weeks to prepare, there is no reason they should not roll here. Stanford -7
 
The Tennessee/Florida over should be money. I don't see UT stopping UF often and I don't see the Gators stopping UT often. We don't know the real quality of the UF team yet and I think the total is a safer bet. 6 points is a lot considering how close most UT/UF games are.

I also like the Bama +2 and Houston.
 
Some great thoughts here ETG. Agree with all of your thoughts on the Mountain West teams.
 
MusicCity - Little shocked when Tenn was +10.5 but I was not fast enough to grab it. Caldwell is questionable for UF.

Little surprised Bama was not a dog, would of like to get that at +points.

JPicks - Thanks a lot
Ramble - Good job with Missouri in WK2, takes a lot to know when to fade your own team. Missouri is priced too high for me here in WK3


Houston -14...1.2units to Win 1unit
Houston -14...1.1units to Win 1unit
 BC +7.....2.2units to Win 2units: More on this game later.
UCLA -12..1.1unit to Win 1unit


I have eliminated some games from my leans due to the lines coming out but I will update this post after I lock some more in.
 
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some nice line predictions there. BC is up to 7.5 now so do you think you'll be adding to that bet if it keeps rising?
 
Yea, Renew, I flat out like BC a lot. The weak spot on BC's defense is vs. the pass which GT will not expose. BC is strong vs. the run. I just think this is too many points.
 
Alright..

The BC/GT match up is one that I think is very interesting and is very important for the ACC race. These two teams have not met in quite some time and this is the first road game for BC with their new HC. They did start the year however on the right foot, avenging two of their losses from last season. In WK1 they got it done with the arm of Matt Ryan, most likely the best player in the ACC and in WK2 they got it done behind the legs of Callender. They have a balanced attack that they can move up the field with and they take what the defense gives them. Georgia Tech opened the season by crushing ND which at this point seems like it will happen a lot. In WK2 GT played host to Samford who was clearly out manned and outmatched. I did notice something in the GT/ND game though and that is Taylor Bennett. I am not sold on this kid carrying the offense if called upon and in this game, he will be called upon. Bennett was 11-23 w/ 121yds vs. ND and he was 8-9 w/ 85yards vs. Samford. A lot of his passes in the ND game were quick routes and they did not let him try to stretch the field. So in two games, he has yet to throw a TD pass. Why is this significant? BC allowed Wake to throw for 365yards and NCST to throw for 351yds. The GT offense has yet to pass the 150yard mark and they are missing a big chance to take advantage of BC's biggest weakness. You might point out the famous bowl game vs. WVU and I have two things to say about that, 1)Calvin Johnson and 2)Did you see Marshall throw all over WVU?...GT offense relies very heavily on the legs of Tashard Choice, a very good RB. BC counters with a run defense who gave up 1yard on 24 rushes vs. Wake Forest and 56yards on 24 rushes vs. NC State. This will be a tough test for the GT offense and it could make/break how teams defend GT from here on out. The GT defense is very solid and they will likely do a good job slowing down the BC offense but I am concerned they might be on the field too long if the GT offense can not get it moving. Overall I think this is going to be a lower scoring game and the +7 points are too much for this match up. I actually have BC winning this game outright and although it is a 2unit play, it likely won't stay that way the whole week.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Alright..

The BC/GT match up is one that I think is very interesting and is very important for the ACC race. These two teams have not met in quite some time and this is the first road game for BC with their new HC. They did start the year however on the right foot, avenging two of their losses from last season. In WK1 they got it done with the arm of Matt Ryan, most likely the best player in the ACC and in WK2 they got it done behind the legs of Callender. They have a balanced attack that they can move up the field with and they take what the defense gives them. Georgia Tech opened the season by crushing ND which at this point seems like it will happen a lot. In WK2 GT played host to Samford who was clearly out manned and outmatched. I did notice something in the GT/ND game though and that is Taylor Bennett. I am not sold on this kid carrying the offense if called upon and in this game, he will be called upon. Bennett was 11-23 w/ 121yds vs. ND and he was 8-9 w/ 85yards vs. Samford. A lot of his passes in the ND game were quick routes and they did not let him try to stretch the field. So in two games, he has yet to throw a TD pass. Why is this significant? BC allowed Wake to throw for 365yards and NCST to throw for 351yds. The GT offense has yet to pass the 150yard mark and they are missing a big chance to take advantage of BC's biggest weakness. You might point out the famous bowl game vs. WVU and I have two things to say about that, 1)Calvin Johnson and 2)Did you see Marshall throw all over WVU?...GT offense relies very heavily on the legs of Tashard Choice, a very good RB. BC counters with a run defense who gave up 1yard on 24 rushes vs. Wake Forest and 56yards on 24 rushes vs. NC State. This will be a tough test for the GT offense and it could make/break how teams defend GT from here on out. The GT defense is very solid and they will likely do a good job slowing down the BC offense but I am concerned they might be on the field too long if the GT offense can not get it moving. Overall I think this is going to be a lower scoring game and the +7 points are too much for this match up. I actually have BC winning this game outright and although it is a 2unit play, it likely won't stay that way the whole week.
Click to expand...


Yup:smiley_acbe:
 
Southern Miss (1-1) @ ECU (1-1)

Another big conference match up as these two teams are on the same side of the East Division. For the first time in 5 yrs, ECU defeated SoMiss last yr in OT, 20-17 at SoMiss, the only home game SoMiss lost all yr. Looking back at the game last yr, ECU defense was dominant and was able to limit SoMiss to 100 yards on the ground and 80 through the air. Duplicating those results are the recipe to another win this yr for ECU but it will be tough to do vs the conference favorite. Patrick Pinkney has stepped up nicely as the starting QB for ECU and has yet to turn the ball over, more on him later.. On the other side, senior Jeremy Young has started the yr inconsistently and he will need to improve his game here and not turn the ball over to give his Eagles a chance to win. The ECU defense has been stout vs. the run in their first two games this yr giving up 33yards on 31 rushes to VT and 64yards on 34rushes vs. NC. The run is the most important tool for success for SoMiss with all conference RB Damion Fletcher. ECU showed a willingness to throw the ball a lot vs. NC and Pinkney really did a good job going 31-41 w/ 400 and 3TD's. Eric Ainge and Tennessee were able to throw for 276 and 2TD's and Pinkney will try to test the SoMiss secondary. I initially made this line SoMiss -5 and I can see why that line is wrong now. The key to this game: Jeremy Young. ECU is going to try its best to limit Fletcher and the Eagle ground game and force Young to beat them with his arm. If he performs like last yr, 13-20 for 79yds, they will likely lose the game because I don't see them rushing for 220yards here. ECU is going to try and test the Eagle secondary because their run game has not performed all that well yet this yr. Field position will be very important in this game. Overall, this is likely the top defense in C-USA (ECU) vs. what should be the top team (SoMiss). The line is currently ECU-1 and I lean to SoMiss to pull out a close one as they avenge their only home loss of 2006. I admit that I am not as quick to pull the trigger on this game as I was 3 hours ago. I have concerns about Jeremy Young vs. this ECU defense.
 
When Stanford takes on rival San Jose State on Saturday, the Cardinal will automatically have somewhat of an advantage. San Jose State is without some of its best players, who have recently been injured.

Before the season, the Spartans lost running back Patrick Perry to a season-ending knee injury. The first game of the year didn't bring much better news to the team's running back corps.

Star tailback Yonus Davis didn't play against Kansas State last week due to an ankle injury. Davis joined center Justin Paysinger, defensive tackle Adonis Davis and offensive tackle John Booker on the sidelines with various injuries.

<!--Start Image--><script language="Javascript">document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Coach/PHOTO/DICKTOMEY405_12-21.JPG', '', 0, 225, 405, 1, 'Dick Tomey\'s San Jose State Spartans will be without several contributors on Saturday.', 'Rivals.com', 1189403367000, '', 1014, 'Align=Left'));</script><table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="413"><tbody><tr><td width="407">
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</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Dick Tomey's San Jose State Spartans will be without several contributors on Saturday.</td></tr></tbody></table><!-- End Image-->Now things are getting even worse, as starting quarterback Adam Tafralis injured his shoulder in the third quarter of San Jose State's 34-14 loss to Kansas State. The Spartans were in the game, losing 17-7, when Tafralis went down.

San Jose State head coach Dick Tomey doesn't want to make excuses, but there were plenty to make.

"You're never going to hear me say that when somebody goes down, it kills our chances," coach Dick Tomey said. "We still had chances."

Tafalis completed 181-276 passes for 2,284 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2006. He was also a threat on the ground, rushing 90 times for 224 yards and two touchdowns.

Clearly, San Jose State will miss his presence.

"If you watch the game, he's a warrior," Tomey said. "He's as tough of a guy as I've ever been around. But we've got to be able to play without anybody."

Davis being out hurts badly as well. In 2006, Davis had 163 carries for 1,007 yards and six touchdowns.

With those two players out, among the others, Stanford's chances of winning on Saturday have significantly improved.


--------------------

Just something to keep an eye on this week. If it comes back that both Davis and Tefalis are out, this is a def play.
 
GL ETG. Already on Houston and I love BC this week. 7.5 is way to many points IMO. And congrats on the Gamecocks last week winning that game. 1 win closer to the season total. That was big win for that bet
 
I did not feel like going to work today, just too tired after a long weekend so I called in sick. Figured I would get most of my CFB out of the way here today. I have the following plays locked in as of now.

Houston -14........2.3units to Win 2units
 BC +7.................2.2units to Win 2units
UCLA -12............1.1units to Win 1unit
UCLA -13............1.1units to Win 1unit

I am counting UCLA has a 2unit play just that I have the game at 2 different spreads. I am going to up the ante on BC later in the week, I feel pretty good about their chances in this game. If Ryan can be protected, he can throw on the blitzing GT defense. Bennett has to earn my respect here because I don't fear his arm at all. Houston should take care of business, no reason not to, really. Now it is time to eliminate the leans and find a few more plays. I see there are 2 games on Thursday night and 1 on Friday, I hope I can avoid action because I don't love any side in any of those 3 games.


BYU -7 -105: I am waiting on this game to hit -6.5 before I play it. Basically this game is touched on in this forum so I can keep it short here..Tulsa won in wk1, had a week off to game plan for BYU but they have their question marks that you might not able to fix with an extra week. They don't have someone to pick up the slack for Tennial at RB. The defense was not all that impressive vs. ULM and Max Hall can and will likely tear them apart. BYU OL should be able to control the L.O.S as well. Overall BYU is just a tough and well coached team and they out gained UCLA by 200yards, quite impressive because they are no slack opponent.

Tenn/Fla Over (49?): No total on this game but I think both teams can hit 20-something here, maybe one touches 30ish (UF). I see that Caldwell is out for UF but they are pretty talented at WR so someone will likely step it up. The UF defense is untested after two cupcakes but Ainge should be able to find some holes and get his team on the board. Totals come out later today so have to look at what kind of number is released.

Miss St/Auburn Under (42?): Miss St defense should be able to contain the inept Auburn offense, especially is Cox is back there. With that said, Auburn should be able to stop Messy St and basically this should be an ugly and low scoring game. If both of these offense went off vs. their respective defenses, I would be shocked.

So Miss +1: I posted the writeup on the game but overall the only thing holding me back here is the ECU defense. They really dominated SoMiss last yr on the road and with 8 guys back on that side of the ball, in my mind, not much will change. The key remains QB Jeremy Young. I believe that SoMiss is the better team overall but the better team doesn't always win. This just might be a game where ECU matches up well with SoMiss. Revenge for SoMiss

Stanford - 7: I will need Davis to be out for SJST for this game to be a play. Tefalis is beat up and if he is out, it is a def play but without Davis and their 2nd string RB, SJST has NO rushing game. Stanford did some good things in their wk1 contest vs. UCLA and they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Revenge situation for Stanford and the game at home with a head coach searching for his first win.

Mich St -8.5: I don't know here, I really missed my chance to buy this game down to -7 and that hurts. I know many love MSU but I am a bit worried about this game only because I have not seen the Panthers play yet and they have been untested vs. the two cupcakes they faced. From what I researched on Pitt, their first road game will be with 2nd string QB who will be making first road start, the OL has not played all that well yet, their best DT has been lost for the season to an ACL injury, and their LB's are undersized. Seems to me like MSU should be able to line up in the I-Formation and run the ball down Pitt's throat.

Vandy -4.5: Nickson left the game vs. Bama with a hamstring injury so that is something to keep an eye on this week. Ole Miss is getting blown up on defense and this is a revenge situation at home for Vandy. This is a game I have my eye on but don't feel comfortable enough yet.

Missouri/West Mich Over (54?): I have no interest in the Missouri spread but they should be good for 38+ points in this game, maybe more since it is their home opener. I think West Mich scores some points here as well because Missouri is yet to stop anyone on defense and if they have a large lead, it is almost a sure thing that the defense gets complacent.

Texas Tech -28: I really messed up not getting this game at -24. Yes this is a shit load of points to lay on the road as we learned with Hawaii this week however the game is in the state of Texas and it involves a coach who has no mercy on his opponents and a team who is very bad. Rice is just in shambles. I laid off fading these guys in WK2 because I didn't know if I could trust Baylor and that looks very dumb now.

Washington +4 / Under (44?): I thought I would be getting +7 or so here and than I would of played but now with a little over a field goal, not sure. Washington is 2-0, that is a fact, and they have played better competition than OSU but they will have some trouble moving the ball on OSU I think. OSU has question marks of its own on offense and I don't see them blowing this game open at any point.

Bama -3: I thought Bama would be a home dog but that is apparently not the case. This is another home revenge game type situation but Arkansas has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and there will be a few wrinkles in the offense which better involve Jones or McFadden. The home field and HC def goes to Bama. Not having Monk is going to hurt Arkansas as if the passing game isn't hurting already.

ULM +24: Am I the only one who thinks TAMU should not ever be favored by this much? I just don't see how or why they are. I leaned to Fresno and didn't play it and now they face another double digit dog after playing triple OT with Fresno. I just think somehow, someway, ULM covers this game.
 
ETG - like the card...you know how I feel on SoMiss/ECU. Very interested in playing the team totals for EVERY Mizzu opponent this year. Especially if they are a big favorite like this week. If the O/U comes in at 60 that means you should see Mizzu TT 40, WMich TT 20?? I'll ride that shit!!

I'll have to give Houston some consideration.

:cheers:
 
BigRak - I think I want to hit that Missouri Over for sure, I am expecting a lot of points but no way I lay -20 with them and that defense. SoMiss is now -1, interesting.

Troy - Thanks man. I like BC alot alot. With Fresno, I have my concerns, I wanted to play them vs TAMU but didn't. Oregon and Fresno have played really close games the last 2 yrs and they get up for BCS only teams but Oregon might be rolling with some confidence and Fresno might be a little beat up after 3 OT's.


BC +7.....1.1 to Win 1unit..

That play is now 3 units and will likely see 4 units before Thursday because I don't want the Dr. dropping this line to +4 or anything. I feel very good about BC this week going into ATL and if not winning, keeping it within 3-4 points.
 
Aztec - Thanks, I think I did a little better predicting this week than last week. GL

VK - I might give you something to argue with now, lol..

New additions and basically final card in terms of games.. I might up some plays unit wise (BC, UCLA, Cinci) but this is what I have locked in right now....UCLA is a 2 unit play although at 2 different spreads



Cinci -9...................1.1unit to Win 1unit
Stanford -7..............1.1unit to Win 1unit
UCLA -12.................1.1unit to Win 1unit
UCLA -13.................1.1unit to Win 1unit
Houston -14............2.3unit to Win 2unit
BYU -6.5.................3.3unit to Win 3unit
BC +7.....................3.3unit to Win 3unit
 
TCU -8......................2.2unit to Win 2unit.

I can't stay away from midweek action. There is enough on this forum about the game. I leaned to a AF first half play only in this game and they still may cover the 1st half because maybe TCU came out sluggish and the score is like 10-7 or something but in the 2nd half TCU will wake up and blow them away.
 
Cinci (2-0) @ Miami, Ohio (1-1):

Let me be honest in saying, I have more bucks on this game than I originally planned and instead of buying off, I went back over what I researched, did some more digging, and decided that this play is here to stay. I had marked this game as on my radar and predicted the line come out at -10, it opens at -8.5 and from there I began my research. Cinci is off to a 2-0 start, a win over Miami and it would be the first 3-0 start for the school in 4years. Lets take a look back at Cinci's first two games of the yr. They scored 40 points in the 2nd half vs. SE Louisiana to win 59-3 and they scored 24 points in the 2nd half over OSU to win 34-3. I think this is important for a few reasons. I discovered on the Cinci rivals site that the fans feel the team is better conditioned this yr and they certainly have played much better in the second half of games so that is a possibility. I think the adjustments that Kelly and staff are making at half are producing results as well. Cinci has more depth than Miami and if the game is close at half, should be able to pull away later in the game. I feel that Cincy has upgraded at QB with Mauk who has a 4:1 TD-INT ratio vs. the inconsistent Grutza who posted a 9-13 ratio last yr.. I am not alone in saying this but I feel that Cinci has upgraded its coaching staff as well, Quinn and Kelly have great chemistry and have been together for a long time. Now many have looked at what Cincy has done these first two games and said they can not continue at that pace in which I would agree, forcing 13 turnovers in 2 games is kind of crazy. The offense has not been on fire and they have been lucky to avoid some costly situations. With all that said, give credit where credit is due, and that is the Cinci defense allowing 6 points in two games. That pace as well is impossible to maintain but they are very strong on this side of the ball, especially against the run.

Getting to Miami, we have a team that comes in 1-1 with a 14-13 win over Ball St and a OT loss to Minnesota in wk2. It is important to note that 1)leading rusher, senior Brandon Murphy is out this game, he has double the carries and 3x the yards that backup Andre Bratton has and leading returning tackler from 06' and leading tackler this yr, Joey Hudson is out at MLB for the Redhawks. Those are two significant injuries for the Redhawks to overcome in this game. Miami has a bit of a QB issue as well since Raudabaugh sparked a comeback to force OT last week vs. Minnesota. Original starter, Mike Kokal can move around with his feet while Raudabaugh is more of a pocket passer. The Miami defense has issues after giving up 300yards on the ground to Minnesota and 571 total and 140 on the ground to Ball St and 340 overall. In the game last yr, Cinci won 24-10 behind the legs of Greg Moore (119yds) and Butler Benton (68yds) and as a team they piled up 250yds. Grutza at QB threw for only 43yds going just 5-11. Both RB's are back this yr and while the running game has had its share of struggles early, it should get back on track here.

Random Game Notes:
  • Home team has won the last 4.
  • Cinci has not won in Oxford since 1999.
  • Miami leads series 59-45-7
  • Cinci was 1-4 on the road last yr, Miami was 0-5 at home last yr.
  • This is the home opener for Miami
  • Cinci has won 5 games in a row dating back to last yr, 7 of 8, and 9 of their last 11 games.
  • Cinci has had 8 full days of rest to prepare for this game.
  • Miami played a triple OT game on Saturday and has had only 6 full days to prepare.
What the Doctor has to Say:
  • Cincy only out-gained Oregon State 4.8 yppl to 4.1 yppl last week, so they weren’t nearly as dominant as the final score indicates and Miami-Ohio is a missed kick away from being 2-0 after losing in 3 OT’s at Minnesota last week.
  • The Redhawks upset Ball State on the road in their opener and they are a much improved club after last season’s uncharacteristic 2-10 record.
  • My ratings only favor Cincinnati by 4 ½ points in this game and Miami is certainly capable of an upset win here given that the Bearcats apply to a negative 31-75-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation (that worked against Cal at Colorado State last week).
  • Cincinnati, meanwhile applies to a 109-46-1 ATS home underdog situation and the record is 19-6 ATS for the home dog when both of those situations apply to the same game.
  • Miami’s starting running back Brandon Murphy is out, but backup Andre Bratton is solid. One concern is the questionable status of top defensive player Joey Hudson, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and interceptions last season. Hudson is worth 1 ½ points based on last year’s stats, so I’d still only favor Cincy by 6 points if Hudson doesn’t play.
Where I disagree with the Doctor:

  • The yppl favors Cinci by .7 however that is not what sticks out to me about last weeks game. What sticks out to me is Yvenson Benard (16-30yds) which is a hell of an accomplishment because he is a very good back. This number can be skewed because of the score which meant that Oregon St had no choice but to throw the ball (54attempts), which when completed, pick up more yards than a rush. Cinci only threw the ball 24 times and rushed 30 times.
  • I will argue that upsetting BALL ST and upsetting Cinci are different animals and both teams are improved this yr.
  • I would murder any spread that is Cinci -4.5
  • I will get to the letdown situation in a minute
  • Murphy and Hudson both out, spoke about that earlier.
LETDOWN?

There are two arguments that can be made here. 1)Cinci coming off a big win at home as an underdog and now going on the road as a fav won't play as sharp or up to their potential or 2) Cinci off a big win has picked up momentum and confidence and rolls into Oxford focused. I think how a team is prepared for an upcoming game is a reflection of their HC and as I mentioned before, Kelly is a damn good coach and it is my belief that he won't let this team lose their swagger. I think it is dangerous to assume that this team is in automatic let down situation vs. an in-state opponent who smacked the shit out of them just 2 years ago and owns the overall series. The issue with TCU last night was different, their dream season was all but smashed by an in-state foe where as Cinci feels better about itself and has some confidence.

How I see this game going:

Cinci is going to stop the Miami run game in its tracks, especially with out Murphy who was a big reason they pulled out the upset vs. Ball St. Losing Hudson also hurts the middle of the defense and Cinci will look to establish the rush game. Cinci has forced 13 turnovers this yr, 8 of which have been interceptions. Miami has thrown 4 interceptions this yr and this is the toughest defense they face to date. A lack of rushing game will allow Cinci to pin their ears back and pad their total turnovers. I think it is fair to expect the offense to gradually improve on the yr as they get more comfortable with the schemes of Quinn's offense. As I mentioned before, depth, better conditioning, and second half adjustments will help Cinci control the second half of the game and cover this spread. Cinci will also look to get to the QB after forcing 4 sacks vs. Miami last yr. Cinci has a premier Big East corner in Mike Mickens and a hard hitting safety in Nakamura who both have a nose for the ball. I think the Cinci defense has been very opportunistic and they have benefited from putting the offense in bad situations. That should continue this week as they score points and build a lead while stopping the Miami rushing game. When you throw the ball in the air, only 3 things can happen, 2 of which are bad...You can catch the ball, you can drop the ball, and you can throw it to the other team. Look for the Miami offense to struggle as they inter-change QB's looking for the right option. Mauk will command the offense with the maturity and consistency he has shown so far this yr. I think Miami OH is going to get physically beaten up this game, Kelly has the boys ready to roll and the crystal ball says Cinci 27-10.

Cinci -9.............3.3unit to Win 1unit
Cinci -7.............1.1unit to Win 1unit

*I don't think I was sober and I think I put an extra bet in on Cinci -9 which I discovered early today, that is how I came to find out about wagering more than I planned.

As you can see, this is my first 4unit play of the yr but after covering every aspect of this game, I feel ready to roll.

Updated Card for the Wkend.

(1*)Oklahoma St-10........1.1unit to Win 1unit
(1*)Stanford -7...............1.1unit to Win 1unit
(2*)TCU -8......................2.2unit to Win 2unit
(2*)UCLA -12.................1.1unit to Win 1unit
UCLA -13.................1.1unit to Win 1unit
(2*)Houston -14............2.3unit to Win 2unit
(3*)BYU -6.5.................3.3unit to Win 3unit
(3*)BC +7.....................3.3unit to Win 3unit
(4*)Cinci-9....................3.3unit to Win 3unit
Cinci-7....................1.1unit to Win 1unit
 
Great job on Boston College ETG. You and me both cash with it. Hope you had the ML also
 
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