Week #3 of the N.F.L. (aka BUF +17)

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
2007:
NFL ATS: 6-4-0, +2.40 units
NFL ML: 0-1, -1.00 units
NFL O/U: 2-2-0, -0.20 units
Teasers: 1-1, +1.35 units
------------------------------
NFL Total/YTD: 9-8-0, +2.55 units


Sunday, 9/23


Buffalo (+17) over New England (-110) for 1 unit

INDY/HOU over 47.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Pittsburgh (-8.5) over San Francisco (-110) for 1.5 units

Carolina (-3.5) over Atlanta (-110) for 1.5 units

San Diego (-5.5) over Green Bay (-105) for 1 unit

Jacksonville (+3) over Denver (+100) for 1 unit

CIN/SEA over 50 (-110) for 1 unit


All my plays are also in post #18. Just fixing this thread a bit, since it began only talking about the Buffalo/New England game/spread.

Everything below this line though is in chronological order, in terms of the posts.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

i'll get my weekly thread up in the next couple of days...and change the title of this thread...but, on principle, i had to play this line today. just did it for 1 unit though...

17 points to me is simply ridiculous, especially w/in the division...and barring any catostrophic injuries. sure, buffalo sucked against the steelers...and sure, the pats have looked like world beaters in their first two games...but 17 points is just way too much in the nfl.

remember...of all the pro leagues today...none represent the parody of parity more than the nfl does. and none have a tendancy to come back (be drawn back) towards the middle ground (the median) more than the nfl does.

there's more...but i'll get into it later, when i change this to my real (weekly) thread. for example...of recent history...NE tends to beat Buffalo big on the road, and Buffalo tends to keep the game tight in NE. (by recent, i mean the last couple years.)
anyways, i'll have more on this game soon. jsut wanted to throw this up, since i went and took the +17 this afternoon.

:seeya:
 
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i totally agree and love the points here..i havent played it yet but still lurking at hoping that it magically goes to 17.5..lol
 
i agree getting 17.5 points in the NFL wouldn't be that bad at all. I think Buffalo is going to be to move the ball as marshaun lynch is running very well and as long as JP Lossman gets time to get rid of the ball they will be able to put up around 14-21 points. I say this because Lossman is starting to "get it" in terms of understanding the offense.

Patriots will definitley get their points. I do not know if the defense will be as dominating as they were against SD. If they are i could see a shut out but i expect them to be a little deflated.
 
speaking of losman...wtf is going on with him and lee evans?

i drafted evans and i think i've caught more passes than he has
 
chopz33 said:
speaking of losman...wtf is going on with him and lee evans?

i drafted evans and i think i've caught more passes than he has
Click to expand...

Looked at the corners Lee Evans has been matched up against. Champ Bailey and Ike Taylor. Ike Taylor looks like he did during their Super Bowl season, a real shut down corner. Things won't get easier this week against Samuel. I'd bench him once again. His second half of the season will be fine. I have him also.
 
well easier said than done for the benching....its either him or stallworth and he hasnt done shiat either
 
I think the opposition has figured out how to play them, use a cover CB and some S help to eliminate Evans and make Losman use one of the other recievers to try and beat you.
 
The curse of the public will probably fuck the Patriots in the playoffs.

Public peeps galore are just in love with New England right now.

KABOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
I lean hard this way, too.

I just wish I didn't see NE not having to even try to score over 20 on this team.

Buffalo's defense is so thin, NE will score. The question is, if NE puts up 30, can Buffalo get to 14.

I think they can, I just wish I was more confident in that and that I didn't see NE as having the potential to easily hit the high 30s in this game.
 
NE is going to put up a lot of points and Buffalo is not. It seems like a lot of points, but NE is going to get the job done.
 
If someone's gonna lay 17, it'd be the pats....no play IMO. The pats look like they could easily blow the bills out by 40 or something ridiculous. But laying 17 is asking for:hang:
 
Buff has covered the last two in NE, but there is a problem here as this Pats team is the best overall NFL team in recent memory. No team has been as dominant as this Pats team has a chance of being in the salary cap era. Buff hurting on D and their offense is no great threat to a superior D like NE. Seventeen points I would never lay, but you won't see me on the other side of NE this season as they have no flaws and are deep at every position save QB and RB (their best D lineman and safety are out and they haven't missed a beat). Thanks to cameragate I layed off the Chargers Sunday night (Norv Turner is awful by the way and taking that team in the wrong direction) and probably would have bet NE if I hadn't been so awful at 4 o'clock. This team is focused and will not let down against a division opponent, Pats pick the score here.
 
I agree with BettheRent here. The line is ridiculous and watch a lot of people bet on Buff to cover... I just don't see them scoring more than 13 against the Pats and the Pats can score with ease. It's at NE and that is where they thrive. And don't forget the cheating!! lol. Pats will be in fg range literally every drive... they will score either a fg or td every drive...and I think that is what they have been doing 2 weeks so far. How many times have they punted? I haven't looked into that.

They're just that good....

THE PATS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!!
LET'S JUST CROWN THE DAMN TEAM! CROWN THEM!!


(I don't like the Pats but I'm on with the pats at -16) Bills 9/13 .. Pats 35
 
well this turned into a good thread. thx to all for posting their thoughts.

but like i said...it's only a 1 unit play...and it was played (somewhat) on principle.

NE isn't going 16-0...and they're not gonna win every game by a score of 38 to 14. things happen in the nfl...weird and sometimes unexplainable things, lol.
but seriously...since '96...the favorite is 7-11 ATS when the line is set at -16 or greater. in these cases, the fav was always at home. but out of 18 such occurances, in over 10 years, the fav is only covering these tremendous spreads at a rate of 39%.

does that alone mean NE will or will not cover? no. but they still gotta play the game. and in the parody of parity league, anything can happen...despite how unlikely it may seem beforehand.
 
back to the entire week's card...

i'll fix this thread soon, in terms of my posts/plays...but as of tonight, here's what i've got played for Week #3 so far.


2007:
NFL ATS: 6-4-0, +2.40 units
NFL ML: 0-1, -1.00 units
NFL O/U: 2-2-0, -0.20 units
Teasers: 1-1, +1.35 units
------------------------------
NFL Total/YTD: 9-8-0, +2.55 units

Sunday, 9/23

Buffalo (+17) over New England (-110) for 1 unit

INDY/HOU over 47.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Pittsburgh (-8.5) over San Francisco (-110) for 1.5 units

Carolina (-3.5) over Atlanta (-110) for 1.5 units

San Diego (-5.5) over Green Bay (-105) for 1 unit

Jacksonville (+3) over Denver (+100) for 1 unit

CIN/SEA over 50 (-110) for 1 unit


Will be back w/ thoughts on these other plays as well...and some more additions, i'm sure.

:cheers:
 
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yup.. looks like we are on opposite sides again.... that's actually good news for you since I haven't been doing well so far.. ;)

I think Buffalos' only chance is an emotional letdown for New England. New England has many bigger games later on like being on the road AT the Cowboys, AT the Ravens, and AT the Colts, so this game could be put on cruise control for them. I wouldn't expect them to run any fancy plays or anything that can be looked at by other teams, but at the same time, I think it's safe to say they will go up by two or three tds before the half.. running the basic stuff. The key is... What happens after that??... would the backups start coming in late in the game??.. or would they finish it off with a 42-10 beating??... Considering how strong the team is and how horrible Buffalo looks... I think it would be the latter.
 
nah, blitz. we pretty much see eye-2-eye on half the games, and are on opposite sides for the other half...which means we'll both prolly end up around even, lol.

anyways, added 2 more plays. Buffalo (+17) was played long ago. Added the Indy/Houston over, Pittsburgh, and Carolina the other night. and tonight i added San Diego and JAX.

all my plays (so far) for the week are in post #18 now. still plan on fixing this thread a bit. and i promise to get my write-ups in here, just as soon as i'm done with college footsies for the week.

:cheers:
 
B.A.R. said:
SD...interesting
Click to expand...


what can i say...
they killed my sunday last week, and i'm a glutton for punishment.

j/k...jsut got the feeling they roll GB, and get healthy quick. afc over nfc is never a risky thing. and SD began 1-1 last year too...before going on that tear thru the reg season.


anyways, i'm a sucker...as i added another over with cincy/seattle. It's added into post #18, as well as the 1st post, now. agree that this is a FG game...jsut not sure who wins by that FG. however, i do believe cincy will be good for no less than 28 points...so if i'm right, and if their defense didn't magically improve in a week, than this should indeed sail over the # on sunday.
 
btw...should have 2 or 3 more additions on sat nite, then (minus the mnf game) my card should be complete.

once i add them, i'll finally throw up my write-ups for all these plays.
 
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