Week #3 of CFB

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
2007:
CFB ATS: 11-7-1, +7.80 units
CFB ML: 1-2, -0.75 units
CFB O/U: 5-5-0, -0.50 units
------------------------------
CFB Total/YTD: 17-14-1, +6.55 units


I'll update things/clean up things in here later tonight...but wanted to get all my plays in now. Bottom line, i went off today. Did a ton of work last night...kicked ass in the niffel today...and was ready and waiting to play some of these week three games this afternoon. So i already got 9 games played, as of the moment...but i'm still watching the lines, so there could be one or two more tonight.
Anyways, here's what's already played...


BYU (-6) for 3 units
West Virginia (-16) for 2 units
Vandy (-5.5) for 2 units
Fresno St (+17) for 2 units
SoMiss (+1) for 2 units
Boise St (-13.5) for 2 units
TCU (-8) for 2 units
UCLA (-11) for 2 units
Wash (+4) for 1 unit
Bama (-3) for 2 units

CentMich/Purdue o66 for 1 unit
Toledo/Kansas o65 for 1 unit
Tenn/Florida u57 for 1 unit
Fresno/Oregon o63 for 1 unit


Gonna end up w/ a huge ass card this week, that's for sure.

Other games i'm eyeing...


USC (if it comes down) - no play
UK (if it goes up) - no play
Florida (if it comes down) - no play
GT (if it comes down) - maybe
Okie St (if it comes down) - no play


Those are based on where the lines were a half hour ago, when i finally logged off bookmaker.

Also, i'll have my eye on quite a few totals as well...


cent mich @ purdue over - added
ohio @ vtech under - no play
toledo @ kansas over - added
fresno @ oregon over - added
louisville @ kentucky over (any # below 70) - no play/too f'n high


Anyways, back to searching for lines and shit. Gonna be a very large card by the time we get to thursday, so hopefully it'll be a good one.

And like i said, i'll be back here later tonight to clean things up...and update #'s, etc.
Happy hunting.:tiphat:
 
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i'll have quite a few BYU thoughts later too.
watched their game w/ ucla...and was really impressed.

besides, tulsa has oklahoma on deck. and byu's L6 vs Tulsa have all been dd wins.

this one's a beauty...
 
Agree completely with your BYU thoughts. Watched some of the game this morning and was surprised at how easy they moved up and down the field along with playing some good D. If Hall avoids the mistakes next against Tulsa it won't be close.
 
JPicks said:
Agree completely with your BYU thoughts. Watched some of the game this morning and was surprised at how easy they moved up and down the field along with playing some good D. If Hall avoids the mistakes next against Tulsa it won't be close.
Click to expand...


bruins were dropping like flies.
not season injuries, but having to leave the game for a bit i mean. byu was freakin' tough.

ucla...who i was rooting hard for, and who i think is a great team this year...was (imho) very lucky to survive.
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
bruins were dropping like flies.
not season injuries, but having to leave the game for a bit i mean. byu was freakin' tough.

ucla...who i was rooting hard for, and who i think is a great team this year...was (imho) very lucky to survive.
Click to expand...

Ya I was rooting for the Bruins myself as a Ute. Let me tell you that it's going to be a cakewalk for the Bruins this week. I have some thoughts about that game in my thread you can check out. We're playing our 2nd string offense this week.
 
Yessir...just a small play. partly gut, partly home field...partly how impressed i've been w/ wash, and partly that i'm not all that impressed w/ tOSU...well, except defensively lol.

ETG...gotta check, as i forget. USC?

JPicks...that's music to my ears. Beautiful piece of information...thx.
 
wow...WVU is down to -15

anyways, i gotta run. not all that much movement now. and besides, i got enough to begin with...so will just keep watching the aforementioned leans for now.
 
housekeeping

thx, precise...thx, hunt-diggity-dogg :cheers:


Rather than mess much w/ my first post, i'm just gonna post a cleaned up version of my plays here. I'll update that 1st post, and this post, with any additions throughout the week. No new additions yet...but still looking/waiting/researching.


2007:
CFB ATS: 11-7-1, +7.80 units
CFB ML: 1-2, -0.75 units
CFB O/U: 5-5-0, -0.50 units
------------------------------
CFB Total/YTD: 17-14-1, +6.55 units


Thursday 9/13

West Virginia (-16) over Maryland (-110) for 2 units

TCU (-8) over Air Force (-110) for 2 units

Saturday 9/15

Washington (+4) over Ohio St (-110) for 1 unit

UCLA (-11) over Utah (-110) for 2 units

Southern Miss (+1) over East Carolina (-110) for 2 units

Vanderbilt (-5.5) over Mississippi (-110) for 2 units

Fresno St (+17) over Oregon (-110) for 2 units

Boise St (-13.5) over Wyoming (-110) for 2 units

BYU (-6) over Tulsa (-110) for 3 units

Alabama (-3) over Arkansas (-110) for 2 units

Cent Michigan/Purdue over 66 (-110) for 1 unit

Toledo/Kansas over 65 (-110) for 1 unit

Tennessee/Florida under 57 (-110) for 1 unit

Fresno St/Oregon over 63 (-110) for 1 unit


Will have some brief thoughts on these games in a few.

:cheers:
 
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some quick thoughts on my first 9 plays of the week...

West Virginia (-16)
WVU beat the Terps by 21 LY, but that was at home. This year they go to Maryland. However, where WVU looks great so far...Maryland looks to be underacheiving, against a couple of cupcakes to begin the season. Terps also have Wake on deck, btw. And the Terps haven't been had much success on Thursday nights...going 1-4 in the last 4 years, and losing by an average of 23 ppg. Lastly, 2 years running, the Terps have allowed 300+ yds rushing to WVU...and there's no reason Slaton and White don't have yet another field day in this one. WVU turned it up a notch the last part of that Marshall game...and i can't see Rodriguez allowing two sluggish starts outta the Mountaineers in a row.

TCU (-8)
TCU's won 4 straight from AF. They held AF to under 100 rushing yards LY, which was AF's lowest total of the season. The Horny Frogs looked great against Baylor...and at least for a half, looked great against mighty Texas. This is a very good defense, and they should be able to rebound in the short week...since they're going up against a smaller service team. but the last 2 meetings/seasons, TCU's beat AF by 24 & 38 pts respectively. The offense needs some work...but if anything, the defense is even better. AF also has BYU on deck, so things are gonna be getting much tougher for the flyboys these next 2 weeks.

Washington (+4)
Just a small play here. It's been quite some time, but tOSU has lost it's last two games in Seattle. But seriously, this is the Buckeyes first real test of the season...and also their first on the road. Akron played them fairly tight. And yes, tOSU's defense will be solid...but just see this offense having it's fair share of problems at Washington. The Huskies, on the other hand, have built up to this matchup nicely...w/ a dominating win at Syracuse, followed by ending Boise's streak at home. They're ramping up the competition, heading into league play...and w/ the way Ty has them playing, and how great Locker has looked, i jsut felt it was worth a small shot here...as tOSU has done nothing to impress me yet.

UCLA (-11)
Bruins were lucky to escape w/ a win against BYU...but they were incredibly resilient, and they got the turnovers when they needed them. This will be a nice game for them to get their offense together, heading into league play. LY they spanked Utah by 21 pts. This year there offense is improved, and their defense is very good. Bruins also have a very good record in road non-conf games this decade. On the other side, to say Utah is struggling is an understatement. See what Jpicks said about their 2nd team offense playing this week. But they got spanked by Oregon St in week one, and then there was the AF game. This one should be a blowout.

Southern Miss (+1)
The Golden Eagles are one of the top 2 teams in the CUSA. Sure, Tennessee pulled away from them last week, and made it lopsided...but that's what happens when you go play an SEC team at their place. SoMiss, which has their buy the following week, is 9-2 against ECU since '96. Even though they lost to ECU in OT last year, they've dominated them the 4 years prior to that. SoMiss has a solid defense...and an offense led by a veteran QB, and prolly the best RB in CUSA. ECU, who has a trip to WVU on deck, is 1-5 in the L6 years against SoMiss...being outscored 32-14 on average. Just a great revenge spot, for the better team imo.

Vanderbilt (-5.5)
The Commodores lost to Bama again..but they get Ole Miss at home, and then a bye week after that. The home team in this matchup has won 3 straight, and 5 of the L6 meetings. Vandy returned virtually their entire offense, and 8 on a defense that allowed just 23.7 ppg last year w/ 6 returners. Ole Miss has Florida and UGA on deck following this game...and that young defense was blown out by Mizzou at home this past week. And even though Ole Miss won 17-10 LY at home, Vandy outgained them dramatically. So with the venue changed, just see Vandy having way more success this year...and beating Ole Miss by double digits.

Fresno St (+17)
Somewhat of a sandwich game for Oregon...between UM and conf play...where Fresno St has their bye week coming up. Well deserved, after these 2 non-conf road games. Anyways, Fresno is only 2-5 vs Oregon...yet all 7 games have been decided by 7 pts or less. All 5 losses are also for a combined total of 20 pts...which is very close to this spread alone, lol. They jsut played A&M as tighly as possible on the road, and i expect a similar result here as to the '05 game in Eugene.

Boise St (-13.5)
Boise St at home is simply a different animal. Not the same team as last year, but i expect them to rebound nicely from last week's loss. The Broncos are 3-0 LT against Wyoming, with an average score of 28-13. LY they only won by 7 in Wyoming...but we all know how different they are on the smurf turf. Boise has a bye week after this, and this is also their home coming game. The Cowboys have looked good in their 1st two games this year...but both were at home, and both were against offensively challenged teams...to say the least. This is a young Cowboy defense, and i think Johnson & company will have their way with them at home.

BYU (-6)
This was my favorite play for the week, having watched BYU almost beat UCLA. They were very tough, very impressive...and basically it took turnovers to stop their offense, against an otherwise excellent Bruin defense. Hall was outstanding...and the BYU defense was (for the most part) very stout. Anyways, BYU is a perfect 6-0 against Tulsa...winning each of these games by double digits, with an ave margin of 19 ppg. They flat out dominated Tulsa LY. Tulsa, on the other hand, had a poor first half against ULM before pulling away. They have no recent success in home openers against Div 1A teams, with an ave score/loss being 36-3 in those (L3) situations. They historically allow 44 ppg to BYU. And to top it off, Tulsa has Oklahoma on deck...for the followign Friday, no less. But to sum up...watched Tulsa play ULM in week one, in one fo the lamest games of the new season...and watched BYU & UCLA play a great game the other day. Bottom line...these teams aren't even close, and BYU rolls in this one.


Well, that's it for now. If any of those leans (sides or totals) from the 1st post in this thread become plays, i'll add a small write-up here as well.

happy capping :cheers:
 
good writeups bud.. few things..


Nickson is day-to-day for Vandy but he should play, I think I could be on this game.

You don't think TCU comes out sluggish after losing what could of been their road to the BCS? That is all I am worried about in this game. Are they going to come to play..

I agree very much on BYU. I did not see the BYU/UCLA game but everything I read has matched what you said. BYU is just a solid program. Tulsa and their hurry up offense won't be able to gash BYU on quick routes the same way they did to ULM. BYU can also run the ball on Tulsa to control the clock a little bit and give their defense a rest.

I am very very close to pulling the trigger on SoMiss but Jeremy Young is the only thing holding me back. Last yr, ECU held them to 180 total yards and 9 first downs. They really dominated the game but the score did not reflect that. Pinkney has stepping in nicely at QB for ECU but looks like the run game is trailing behind. SoMiss wants to run the ball but ECU has dominated the run this yr. It is going to be a battle for SoMiss but I think they have enough incentive to win this game on the road, ECU gave SoMiss their only home loss last yr.
 
i like the TCU play a lot, i was surprised not to see it open around 10 so i stayed off of it as i thought something was up. Now not to see it budge .5 point one way or another has me kind of wondering. I know TCU has a great defense and has really shut down air force so i thought a 21 point win was in line but now i am unsure. Yanks..are there any injured from that texas game?


BYU is interesting i was lucky as well to get the cover on ucla last week as well. I am sure this week in practice coaches will be emphasizing taking care of the ball. I like BYU this week but i hope their players do not paly discouraged and not inspired as they are still a good team. I always forget is it tulane or tulsa's players that are banged up?

GL on your card looking good.
 
Yanks- I understand...I think OSUs defense will be to fast and will keep locher contained, which can cause major problems for that offense....GL this week, I like the card
 
added one more for now

Bama (-3)


Added it into the above posts/list of plays.

No write-up for this one. I obviously like it, and have an opinion...but it's also in honor of FadeMeNow. The dude broke down the SEC like none other, and will be missed. Roll Tide.


On another note...
The books really adjusted the totals this week. As a result, i'm gonna take some more time on my leans before making any plays on o/u's this week.


ETG...thx, bud. And yeah, i'm banking on Nickson playing.
ReNew, Frankie, YesSir...thx. BOL this week.
:cheers:
 
YesSir said:
Why Washington? HF advantage?
Click to expand...

YesSir - Have you seen the Huskies play this year? They are a very, very good football team. Quite underrated, IMO. I give Washington an edge at the QB position, as Locker has the wheels to make plays with his feet, and has the best arm of the two. Trust me, this kid is the real deal. He has NFL talent written all over him. Of course, tOSU gets the edge on defense. So, I think the line is about right. tOSU hasn't impressed me at all (thus far), struggling against Akron for starters.
 
Aztec4Life said:
tOSU hasn't impressed me at all (thus far), struggling against Akron for starters.
Click to expand...


it's hard to be, considering their first 2 opponents...that's for sure. but we'll know tOSU a bit better after this weekend, one way or the other.

steed...thx, bro.



Also, i added 4 totals today. They're all posted in the other 2 posts, with the rest of my plays.

Cent Mich/Purdue o66
Toledo/Kansas o65
Tenn/Florida u57
Fresno/Oregon o63

I'll give my thoughts on any/all of them, if wanted...just lemme know. But i'm gonna tread a bit more softly on totals for a while, in general, as the books really seem to have adjusted them (to them) this week.
But quickly, the under is pretty much a tail of Jump...agree completely...and the overs were all leans from day one. Fully expect the winner of each game to reach the mid-40s...and quite likely the low 50s in Purdue's and Kansas' cases.

In any case, barring some unexpected change tomorrow/thursday, this should pretty much be my final week three card now.

BOL...and hopefully things start well w/ the 2 tomorrow. :cheers:
 
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yep...my final week two card

Glad to not get backdoored in the WVU game...no idea what happened to the TCU game. Checked in, and the Frogs had a 14 pt lead...checked back, and it was completely gone. Not good. But in any case, 1-1 on Thursday...lost some juice. No play for Friday...and no more additions for Saturday either.


BYU (-6) for 3 units
West Virginia (-16) for 2 units W = +2.00
Vandy (-5.5) for 2 units
Fresno St (+17) for 2 units
SoMiss (+1) for 2 units
Boise St (-13.5) for 2 units
TCU (-8) for 2 units L = -2.20
UCLA (-11) for 2 units
Wash (+4) for 1 unit
Bama (-3) for 2 units

CentMich/Purdue o66 for 1 unit
Toledo/Kansas o65 for 1 unit
Tenn/Florida u57 for 1 unit
Fresno/Oregon o63 for 1 unit


As far as line movements, it's mixed.
Shocked that you can still get BYU for under a TD. Shocked, having watched both teams play.
Vandy's stayed about the same...but the QB injury explains that.
Fresno's only gone down a 1/2 point, which is surprising considering the history here.
Southern Piss is now the fav, and correctly so imo.
Boise's down to -12, which i understand...considering past matchups. Don't agree though, jsut the same. Btw, check how Boise responds to their infrequent losses.
Couldn't be happier w/ the line i got for UCLA. Dr B sure messed with that one this afternoon, lol.
Wash is down to +3.5, and Bama's held at -3. No surprises in either case.

Anyways, BOL to everyone this weekend. Hope it's a killer Saturday for the forum.
:cheers:
 
Be careful on Boise St. everybody. Wyoming's defense was top 10 nationally last year and is top 10 this year. BSU's coach said after the Wyoming game last year (I was at the press conference) that he "didn't think it was possible to shut this offense down like that." Wyoming only gave up one offensive touchdown and lost with 4 minutes left on a pick-6.
Wyoming goes very, very deep at LB and runs a run-stopping 3-4 now, and the DC ran a very vanilla defense last week to not show BSU anything.

All that said, Wyoming has historically been a TERRIBLE play ATS on the road. This line is just in a terrible spot for me to be comfortable with it with BSU motivated after a loss, Homecoming, etc., and with me setting so much money on fire the past few years betting the Cowboys on the road.

I feel much better about taking the under. Last year's game was 17-10 and I think we're in for a similar game on Saturday.

GL everyone!
 
TheCup said:
Be careful on Boise St. everybody. Wyoming's defense was top 10 nationally last year and is top 10 this year. BSU's coach said after the Wyoming game last year (I was at the press conference) that he "didn't think it was possible to shut this offense down like that." Wyoming only gave up one offensive touchdown and lost with 4 minutes left on a pick-6.
Wyoming goes very, very deep at LB and runs a run-stopping 3-4 now, and the DC ran a very vanilla defense last week to not show BSU anything.

All that said, Wyoming has historically been a TERRIBLE play ATS on the road. This line is just in a terrible spot for me to be comfortable with it with BSU motivated after a loss, Homecoming, etc., and with me setting so much money on fire the past few years betting the Cowboys on the road.

I feel much better about taking the under. Last year's game was 17-10 and I think we're in for a similar game on Saturday.

GL everyone!
Click to expand...


Good post.

Good to have another MWC..ETC guy around..always helps
 
I agree with TheCup's thought on Wyoming plus that 13.5 is a bad line.
Nice hit on WVU btw, and too bad TCU shit themselves or you'd be 2-0.

gl Sat Yanks
 
Thank you, Jump. :cheers:

LJC...yep, a very bad line on that game. Played it when it came out, obviously not expecting it to go down. Still think Boise wins by 17 though.

TheCup :cheers:
First, welcome. Second, excellent post. Thx for posting your thoughts.

I know where you're coming from, definitely. But i also differ slightly on my view of Wyoming's defense. Due to the two pathetic offenses they've played so far this year, i'm not ready to give their defense quite as much credit or the accolades yet...since they only returned 5 on that side of the ball from last year. But then again, i don't see them play much at all, like i'm sure you do.
Also, Boise is a completely different animal at home...on the smurf turf. (Last year's game was at Wyoming.) And being homecoming...and considering the truly remarkable ATS #'s they have bouncing back from a (infrequent) loss...i jsut see them winning this game a bit easier than most, i guess.

In any case, thanks again for your thoughts. Discussing these matchups is what the forum's all about.
 
final results for the week

Simply brutal...even painful...definitely disgusting. Missed watching any games, due to a family function...yet it was prolly for the best, seeing what transpired. But the 3 that are still bugging me are UCLA, Boise, and BYU. Boise was just the typical backdoor fuckjob...but i'm at a loss coming to terms with the UCLA and BYU losses. Just unreal. Anyways...


BYU (-6) for 3 units L = -3.30
West Virginia (-16) for 2 units W = +2.00
Vandy (-5.5) for 2 units W = +2.00
Fresno St (+17) for 2 units L = -2.20
SoMiss (+1) for 2 units W = +2.00
Boise St (-13.5) for 2 units L = -2.20
TCU (-8) for 2 units L = -2.20
UCLA (-11) for 2 units L = -2.20
Wash (+4) for 1 unit L = -1.10
Bama (-3) for 2 units T = Push

CentMich/Purdue o66 for 1 unit W = +1.00
Toledo/Kansas o65 for 1 unit L = -1.10
Tenn/Florida u57 for 1 unit L = -1.10
Fresno/Oregon o63 for 1 unit W = +1.00

Week #3 = 5-8-1, -7.40 units


This shit brings me back to basically even on the young season...down a whole $85...except that doesn't take into account the countless hours put into all of this, of course. What a pisser today turned out to be.


2007:
CFB ATS: 14-13-2, +0.60 units
CFB ML: 1-2, -0.75 units
CFB O/U: 7-7-0, -0.70 units
------------------------------
CFB Total/YTD: 22-22-2, -0.85 units


Fit to be tied...:hang:
 
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