Week 3 NFL

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
YTD: 11-4
+8.8 units

overall 11-4 +8.8 units
sides: 6-3 +3.75 units
Halves: 4-1 +4.05 units
Teasers: 1-0 +1 unit

will update plays here: (all plays to win 1 unit, unless otherwise stated)
7 Point Teaser- Buffalo -2.5, Seattle -2.5 (-130)
7 Point Teaser- Buffalo -2.5, SD -2 (-130)
6.5 Point Teaser- Seattle -2.5, SD -2 (-120)
Houston +4.5 (-110)
--Houston +5.5 (-110)
--(will count as 1 play unless it lands on 5)
Carolina +4 (-120)
Chicago -3 (-105)
Buffalo -9.5 (-110)
Seattle -10 (+105) (risk 1 unit)
Detroit +4.5 (-110)
New Orleans +6 (-115)
Pittsburgh +4 (-120)
Green Bay +3 (+100)
San Diego -8.5 (-110)
 
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leans as of now: Buffalo, Seattle, Detroit, New Orleans, Philly, GB

buffalo
-more of a fade of Oakland. off 1st W over divison KC, have rival SD next week. oakland should be in a flat spot here with their young/undisciplined team. Buffalo been lookin very good- owning bad teams

Seattle
-Seattle NEEDS a W to prevent going into the bye down 0-3. still have 12th man. can take out frustration on St Louis

Detroit
-altho 0-2, their 2 losses they showed resilience. After their bad starts, they looked decent. Niners should be tired and in a flat spot off their OT W. Niners biggest weakness is the pass rush, so roy williams/calvin johnson will kill us. Detroit going into their bye, and should play with desperation to prevent going down 0-3 into their bye

New Orleans
-if their defenders return and I can get 6 I'll be on it. Denver has been looking unstoppable, but I doubt that it will be this easy. Difficult to lay points with no defense. Denver got A LOT of breaks last week in their W which made them look a bit better than they truly deserved (did not serve that INT and they fumbled at the end- 14 points from ref fuck ups) Denver also off a big emotional W and have a division game coming next week
 
Philly
-played amazingly well and now get to come home mad off their loss. Kind of scared cuz line seems a bit shaded for Philly (lost value) as every1 knows they loooked good in their loss while pittsburgh looked bad in their loss. however, pittsburgh is sandwiched b/w dvisional games and philly on a short week off both phsycally/mentally draining game. unsure of this one, think Philly should get the W. was not expecting -3 -125. ugh. lean as of now

GB
-dallas looks like worldbeaters off their win. however, the game was both physically and mentally draining and have a big div game gainst wash. GB is still a great team and imo this game should be a pk/ GB-1. getting a FG is not bad. Not sure if I should get it in now and wait and hope for 3.5/4
--any thoughts on how this line will move?
 
likin new orleans, gb, and philly...good point about sf's pass rush...i like your boys this year though...that may not be enough for me to stay off of them
 
SF - I like GB at home as well - I don't think much of the Cowboy D, plus the situation, schedule wise, that they find themselves in. I personally think it should rise a bit, but I'm not that great at predicting that.

gl
 
Agree with Detroit and Buffalo

Detroit in a good situational spot that I play. Played it for 1 unit

Oakland in a bad situational spot..........and further have to go from West Coast to East Coast for a 1PM Eastern start. Layed the 9.5 for 2 units.

On the other side in the Seattle game.......took the +10 for 1 unit with the Rams.

No opinions on the others.

Good luck on all, except good health on Seattle.
 
Thanks for the GL guys!

in little response: I do like the niners this yr. Their offense under Martz has already shown extreme promise and I'm hopeful it will only be better as time progresses. I mean we got 33 points last week with no receivers. Sullivan looks really really good, but I wish we had someone younger for the future- hopefully this draft. I think the niners looked real real good last week and I feel biased when I say they should put up 30+ against Detroit's D. However, from outside perspective, this is a flat spot for us. Off our first loss, actually a favorite. Detroit fighitng to prevent going 0-3 going into their bye. Also, (random vent) Gore may have the worst hands on holding onto a football in the league. So, I like the Niners in general this yr to hopefully go 8-8+, and although we can beat detroit this week, imo i won't. Niners are not the type of team to be laying points with.

Played a teaser updated above
 
added a couple plays:

Carolina- new QB facing a vicious defense. Minnesota looks like its stretching, Carolina is too hot with a top 5 WR coming back. They are resilient getting points. I see a FG game either way.

CHicago- home opener. Was loooking to fade Griese, and here's my chance with a great defense. I see both offenses struggling against these top tier defenses, but Chicago wins the special teams battle. I can see Chicago winning to field position battle and pulling away from a tight one. Hester back.
 
also pulled the trigger on Seattle. liked the +105, as this one should not be close- st louis is that bad. Seattle's pass rush should get to them as they head into their bye. Seattle should be trying to get rid of frustration and take it out on St Louis
 
Bigby is doubtful, so undecided on GB. I think there's a lot of value, but scared to pull the trigger. Detroit and NO- I'm waiting on this line. Looks like a pretty teaser weekend, but I'll likely just stay with my one. However, I think a nice teaser would be: Buffalo, Seattle, Detroit, Carolina, SD.
 
man I'm flip floppin on Carolina right now, but considering that I paid -120 for it I might as well ride it. damn.. I do not think Ferote can do anything against Carolina, but I also do not think rookie RB and avg QB delhomme will be able to move the ball against Minny. AP should have a harder time against this D, but I can definitely see Minny gettin a TD or two this game. I'm hoping Feorotte messes up a couple times, but this line movement is scarin me a lot. Kind of feel like a sucker here. Seems an overwhelming amount on Carolina, but line jumped off key number 3
 
Minnesota is desperate for a W as shown by the move. I cannot see how Ferote and receivers can get timing and playbook learned in a week. However:

Passing game: Carolina
Running game: Minny
Pass stopping: Carolina
Run stop: Minny
Special teams: even
Motivation: Minny
coaching: Carolina

ugh...
 
Kinda like the texans with 2 weeks to prepare for this . Tenny could be w/o Justin gage possibly the lone WR they have worth a darn . Dont think they have played that well for a 2-0 team relying heavily on there defense which is very , very good.

Really starting to like Baltimore . Just how is CLE scoring ? They need a 2nd WR and Stallworth looks ta best like a gametime decision . Jamal Lewis didnt do much of anything vs the Balt defense last year . Cle won both meetings last year and Balt also had 2 weeks to prepare while CLE played on SNF . Balt gets McGahee back in the mix and they have what looks like 3 very capable backs now .

While Balt passing game is a huge question just think Ravens with a healthy defense is a tough task...

Any thoughts ??

:cheers:
 
On Dallas as well . Vikes played well and lost a close one because GB executed well . Only 2 big plays on offense were huge the 60yd reception and 50 yd run. Bigby's absence judging by DET game may be impossible to overcome and Grant still limited at RB. Let a huge lead sneak away from DET last week so that game seems just as emotional as Dallas' game .

Be suprised if GB wins ...good team on its way up but Dallas is top of the heap still ...
 
SportsNut said:
On Dallas as well . Vikes played well and lost a close one because GB executed well . Only 2 big plays on offense were huge the 60yd reception and 50 yd run. Bigby's absence judging by DET game may be impossible to overcome and Grant still limited at RB. Let a huge lead sneak away from DET last week so that game seems just as emotional as Dallas' game .

Be suprised if GB wins ...good team on its way up but Dallas is top of the heap still ...
Click to expand...

Yea I hate that Bigby is out, and now I'm seeing maybe woodson?

but overall, I see this game as a serious statement game for GB- and I know everyone says that as an excuse to make a play, but seriously. a win here on Nat TV over consensus SB favorites will let the world know that they're the tops of the league. Really like what I've been reading about GB's prep for Dallas. Harris takin TO battle personally (not that it really matters tho :( )

again can defnitely see why sum1 would like Dallas- better talent, Bigby out. However, I'm siding with what imo is tremendous value- as I had this at GB -1 and was willing to take it.

Talentwise- Dallas obviously has the edge. Romo seems like he can nap, shower, and shave- then find TO even against a blitzing Philly D. However, I do not see GB talent wise much lower than Dallas. I say neutral field, Dallas is -3/4 over GB.

However, in close games, I think homefield is such a factor. GB fans are loving Rodgers and will show it, likely better crowd than the Minny game. With only two games to show from: GB on offense has made all the plays they've needed to. I don't put too much against GB with Detroit's comeback. I mean they were up so much in the 4th Qtr, its only natural to relax and put your foot off the trigger. Also, Kitna a playing risky throws which led to TDs, but later also to INTs as would be expected. I don't think of it so much as emotionally draining- possibly as a "oh shit, we almost lost" but nothing serious as it seems when they needed/wanted to they got what they wanted- which despite being against detroit- was pretty impressive (divisonal win on the road). Also this GB offense was able to put up 24 while making the plays when needed against one of the toughest D's in the league. If they can put up 24 in week 1 against Minny's D, who's to say they can't do the same, or even like 27-31 against Dallas.

Overall, this isn't so much a matchup bet, its a bet that this game means so much more to GB than it does to Dallas. You know Dallas loved beating rival Philly, and may be looking ahead to divison rival next week. a road win at GB may not be of number one importance. However, for Rodgers/GB, this game means so much.
 
SportsNut said:
Kinda like the texans with 2 weeks to prepare for this . Tenny could be w/o Justin gage possibly the lone WR they have worth a darn . Dont think they have played that well for a 2-0 team relying heavily on there defense which is very , very good.

Really starting to like Baltimore . Just how is CLE scoring ? They need a 2nd WR and Stallworth looks ta best like a gametime decision . Jamal Lewis didnt do much of anything vs the Balt defense last year . Cle won both meetings last year and Balt also had 2 weeks to prepare while CLE played on SNF . Balt gets McGahee back in the mix and they have what looks like 3 very capable backs now .

While Balt passing game is a huge question just think Ravens with a healthy defense is a tough task...

Any thoughts ??

:cheers:
Click to expand...

Agreed on both Texans and Baltimore. Both with 2 weeks rest- wouldnt really call it 2 weeks to prep because they probably weren't preparing much for this weeks matchups until this week. There is no way I'm laying 6 with Tennessee, so naturally I look the other way at Houston. Without much to look to regarding Houston's stats, its hard to make a definitive case for how they are this yr- before the season I had huge hopes for them, and I guess it shouldn't change just from one loss to Pittsburgh. And I mean i dunno if anyone has read this:

"I think he’s just scared of us," Haynesworth surmised following the Dec. 2 game in Nashville, Tenn., where Schaub’s first Houston season ended prematurely with a separated shoulder in what became a 28-20 Tennessee victory. "Maybe next year he won’t play against us. He’ll just sit that game out."

"Everyone has an opinion. It’s a free country, and (Haynesworth) can do what he wants. He’s a very good player, and he backs it up every Sunday. I think it’s great motivation for our offensive line to come and play tough and physical. (They’ll) be excited to protect Matt.""- Rosenfield

Guys handle things differently. We’re going to let our play talk. We’re not going to get into all that stuff."- Shaub

and I know this is bullshit, but still nice to hear:
“We could do something that’s very special — go to Tennessee and find a way to get a ‘W,’?” Texans guard Chester Pitts said. “Trust me, whatever percentage of Houston doesn’t have power would feel a little better because we found a way to do it. It’s a great opportunity to get the fans in the city of Houston feeling better about themselves.”

ALthough I'm a bit worried of a distracted Houston team, having a bye week after week 1 beat-down could be helpful. extra time watching the game, extra time with the taste of being blown out in their mouths.
 
Also, looks like Slaton is startin for Houston. He should be good (look how valuable he truly was to WVU- bitches)
 
and regarding Cleveland and Baltimore- I really have no idea. Baltimore with 1 game- a nice win for Flacco over umm Cincinatti? Cleveland essentially in a must-win, but its not like their offense has shown anything, and they arent exactly road warriors.
 
SF_capper said:
Yea I hate that Bigby is out, and now I'm seeing maybe woodson?

but overall, I see this game as a serious statement game for GB- and I know everyone says that as an excuse to make a play, but seriously. a win here on Nat TV over consensus SB favorites will let the world know that they're the tops of the league. Really like what I've been reading about GB's prep for Dallas. Harris takin TO battle personally (not that it really matters tho :( )

again can defnitely see why sum1 would like Dallas- better talent, Bigby out. However, I'm siding with what imo is tremendous value- as I had this at GB -1 and was willing to take it.

Talentwise- Dallas obviously has the edge. Romo seems like he can nap, shower, and shave- then find TO even against a blitzing Philly D. However, I do not see GB talent wise much lower than Dallas. I say neutral field, Dallas is -3/4 over GB.

However, in close games, I think homefield is such a factor. GB fans are loving Rodgers and will show it, likely better crowd than the Minny game. With only two games to show from: GB on offense has made all the plays they've needed to. I don't put too much against GB with Detroit's comeback. I mean they were up so much in the 4th Qtr, its only natural to relax and put your foot off the trigger. Also, Kitna a playing risky throws which led to TDs, but later also to INTs as would be expected. I don't think of it so much as emotionally draining- possibly as a "oh shit, we almost lost" but nothing serious as it seems when they needed/wanted to they got what they wanted- which despite being against detroit- was pretty impressive (divisonal win on the road). Also this GB offense was able to put up 24 while making the plays when needed against one of the toughest D's in the league. If they can put up 24 in week 1 against Minny's D, who's to say they can't do the same, or even like 27-31 against Dallas.

Overall, this isn't so much a matchup bet, its a bet that this game means so much more to GB than it does to Dallas. You know Dallas loved beating rival Philly, and may be looking ahead to divison rival next week. a road win at GB may not be of number one importance. However, for Rodgers/GB, this game means so much.
Click to expand...

From my stance ...

Just cant see why GB would be favored in theory . I understand its home and all but look at what little that meant vs Minnesota . If you thought okay whats the difference bewteen DAL and Minny , my guess would be a good 6 or 7 points easy . So take that GB -3 vs Minny and off the bat +3 vs Dallas makes sense to me.

I had little doubt GB would be any different with Rodgers at Qb and made a pretty huge play on them in week 1 . So its not that I dont believe in them but just think with the injuries its gonna be tough to beat a top notch team . Woodson is okay I believe just taking practice lightily nowadays...

I think while they beat Minny they also made all the plays and Minnesota was unable to capitalize on any opportunities . What happens if Driver doesnt leap bewteen 2 defenders and catch that ball , if Grant doesnt break that long run , if Jackson doesnt throw a pick on the last drive. Just saying that the margin for error in the win vs minimal and it was a very close game .

Dal is a team who just has so much talent its scary . I think if they get straight and stop the sloppy BS they are much better then Patriots teams of 2007. Of couse its an IF ....

I think there corners will be a little healthier here and really dont see what was impressive from the philly offense vs Dal ? It worked for all there yards ....

I think the problem with DAL is yeah I agree say -4 on a neutral field but they are a team who is gonna negatate just about everyone else home field "edge" ...few teams will get those bonus points in the spread at least theoritically.

I kinda disagree as well about the DET game . It was 21-0 and maybe they got laxed but it was 24-9 to start the 4th and would think its okay time to ice it and quite the opposite happened ...

GB had a defensive score and they had TDs off the big plays . So I question what they will be able to score I see them around 20points ...

being Romo is getting a chance to play at his idols "home" think the game serves huge importance for him ...

I kinda think DAL defense is just as good as GB and DAL offense is ahead of GBs offense so all that GB has going for them is home field ...Would not be suprised to see GB win but just think a close look at the 1st 2 games they played shows how thin there margin of success is . Dal handed 14 pts to Philly when it could have buried them and still won ...

Like the stuff about Houston and Balt ...BOL ..:shake:
 
dammit, well I had a pretty long writeup, but it disappeared so screw it. Overall, I'm likely to play Houston. Will lay off Balt unless I can read some compelling arguments. and I cannot get myself to lay road chalk (with Dallas) against one of the premier teams in the league. -also considering Dallas is the nation's darling team- cannot forget. No one is as good/bad as they looked last week, esp on MNF
 
oftentimes, a capping tool I use is ask a couple friends who look at lines who they like this week- usually the 'square' plays. If I can make a compelling argument for the otherside- I look into it more.


Also, SN- what do you think about Gus for Minny?- who you like this week?
 
fuckin Bodog, won't give me a solid 4.5 on Detroit yet.

Man, looks like a card I originally said I would play 3-5 plays, turns into one where I got every side. grr. Hopefully I don't regret it :(

as of now my card will look like:
7 Point Teaser- Buffalo -2.5, Seattle -2.5 (-130)
Seattle -10 (+105) (risk 1 unit)
Carolina +4 (-120)
Chicago -3 (-105)
Buffalo -9.5 (-110)
Green Bay +3 (+100)

adds:
New Orleans +6
Detroit +4.5
Houston +6?
Pittsburgh +4 (will buy if necessary)
San Diego -9

geez... 11 bets before the games even start. HT usually opens things up though..
 
looking to get into teaser action with SD -2.. so sexy. tough choosin, with teaser, I like to either take big faves or small dogs.

SD -2 looks real good to me

quick thoughts thru card- teaser style- sum1 read this and if they see flaw in my quick tidbit judgement- tell me where I'm thinking wrong. I'm kind of new to teasers, but I imagine they can be very profitable.

KC +13 (only cross 7 key number and I dont want money on KC)
Buffalo -2.5- I love it
Houston +12.5- although I only cross 10 and 7 as key numbers, I don't see Tennessee winning big. however, if hosuton is the team that showed up week 1, its a L. too many ??
Giants -6.5-I do like it. However, I think the lines inflated a bit, and I'd prefer not to have to win by a TD in a teaser
Zona +10- decent. Kind of like it. Wash shouldn't blow any1 out, and Zona should compete with many
New England -6- like it, but big number for a teaser. going into their bye, they should try to get this over quick. however, miami prolly wants this more (if that really matters)
Tampa +10- not a fan, but can definitely see it happening. I see Chicago winning by 7ish, so ehh. but nice to get 10 points with a great D against a nonexistant offense...
Carolina +10.5- Like it alot. should be very low scoring and close
Seattle -3- love it
Detroit +11- Like it. cross 2 key numbers and SF isnt the type to blow teams out. however, Detroits secondary scary enough to get me off
NO +13- dont really like it. If Denver can abuse NO secondary- 13 isnt enough
Pittsburhg +10.5- like it. Mcnabb scares me esp at home, but Pitts D should stay within 10 at the very least
Jax +12.5- not a fan. Indi can go off- esp if that 4th Qtr got them going. Jax hasnt been impressive.
Cleveland +9.5- don't like it. points don't matter with a team that has no D
GB +10- like GB +3 better. If Romo can get comfy, it can be scary
SD -2- love it

overall, only teams I'd teaser: SD -2, Buff -2.5, Sea -2.5, Carolina +10.5, Pittsburhg +10.5.
-teasing all 5 in a 5 teamer would be 5-1, but imo any parley with more than 3 plays should be treated only for recreation, and thats not what I'm trying to do. I want $$$.

already have buffalo and Sea in a teaser. Definitely want SD in one.
 
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GL SFcapper......did you see my post that i laid $750 to win $500 on SF over 6 Wins? (also got $100 ticket to win $9000 LMAO)

Gonna be cheering for SF every damn week.....
 
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