Week 3 NFL Capping HEADQUARTERS- GOING MIT STYLE

[Sammy Meatballs]

I have no exuces anymore, I basically have 24 hours free to cap games, and have been guilty of not using my time effectively.

From now on I am going MIT style, and going to cap the living shit out of games, I will start by capping games and get some discussion going on here.

I am going to check every single DRIVE LOG and every single play by play of every team, to try and figure out a pattern and see how each team has fared and how they may fare this week.

I will be looking at # of sacks given up, # of runs to passes, avg completion.

I will not be denied anymore, I will be researching to a level that we will all win and thats just the way its going to be-- There is no other alternative-
I will work as hard as necessary to get the job done.

Will start in morning updating some games, and number crunch to see if I can find some glaring numbers that we can use to pick a side or get an idea of how a game may flow---

"I will use a saying a buddy of mine JOE D who made a significant fortune betting by the time he was 20 years old said to me.

" betting is simple, there are 2 teams, one has to win, one has to lose, most people lose, but in reality in any game there is always a winner, its up to you to find that winner"

This is what separates the avg bettors from the elite- the ability to find that winner consistently.

People often are upset when the lose, and bitch and say I will stop gambling, but in reality you can never be upset at a team or a bad beat that hits you. REASON is you can only be upset at yourself for picking the team, because you have the control to pick the teams, and no one forces you to choose any team.

What we are going to do is simple. We are going to need to do some research on the O lines and the D lines of teams. This is critical to the game. Games are always decided up front ie NY GIANTS winning super bowl was up front pressure-

Sacks allowed will be studied, then we will study the avg completion yardage. We want to see how long the completions are, some teams dont have hot routes, and have longer developping routes.


After studing the LOG DRIVES of week 1 and 2, I will be able to tell if a team has long drives that most likely there O line is blocking well all the time.

If a team does not have long drives it means the O Line is weak, and overall the teams receivers and QB's are not on the same page-

IF A QB is given time he will find a receiver, no doubt about that- This week for ex teams like New orleans are going to have to get pressure to disrupt DENVER or they will move the ball, becaue they have a good O line with good receivers and good QB play-

I wish I had taped all the games, then I could run a computer simulation program on how each D lineman would do against each O lineman--

Also the teams D philosophy is key also, because if they blitz or sit back will have an impact on the teams offense and over under of the game.

There are some games with new QB's like MINNY that are harder to predict, but I think the teams that are stable we can predict and we can win on those games-


LEts get together and rip this apart this weeek.




















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[lidspinner]

I am with ya Sammy....I do alot of this work on my own....I spend alot of time looking at these exact play drives your speaking of.....sometimes though, its harder this early in the year to get a grip on the drice summarys.......for example, being in Ohio I get to watch alot of Browns and Bengals games, both are offensive teams, Browns have one of the best Ol's in the game, Benglas have 1 of the worst in the NFL...Yet if you study the drives, the bengals are actually gettign better protection up front and neither team is winning. I absolutley LOVE your thinking though and this is why I am beginning to fall in love with this site. This afternoon I will be ripping apart both the Bronco's and the bears. If I find any big info, I will post it up. I broke down Cleveland and Baltimore last night and with Baltimore only having 1 gmae to look at, I am lost but I see no way for the Browns to not win this game outright. Give me a plate of those meatballs Sammy, I am ready to eat.

 

[Marlo]

Good to see you back in action Sammy.

 

[Master P]

go get them sammy :cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

GAMEPLAN: "There is a winner in each game this week. Just make sure you find that winner in that game"

Week 3 IMO has been affected majorly by WEEK 1 and WEEK 2---

Case in point, I really don't think you will ever see Baltimore, Atlanta and 49'ers favored too much this year. Also Atl and 49'ers are giving more than 3 points-

Seattle also favored by -9.5 points? INdy also giving -5.5 and Bobby Sanders is out for 6 weeks or so and we all know what happened when he was injured last year, they could not stop the run-


What is happening is really simple here-

After 2 weeks Vegas has taken the position that Rams are crap, also Dolphins are not far behind. In a matter of 2 weeks CINCY has also fallen in the VEGAS dog house-- Detroit is also ready for the vegas dog house-
IT is clear that Vegas feels these teams are crap, as all are big dogs and Detroit is even giving 4 at 49'ers which is rare-- KC and Oakland are also in the Vegas dog house- Oakland got in the doghouse after 1 loss to Denver.

You have to clear your head and think really really clear. Vegas throws the lines out this week. We think okay Vegas has these teams favored, so they must be better because they are favored- NOT SO FAST--

I am 100000000% convinced that the lines do not mean anything, they are just a line set to get even action on any game--

What I am thinking is very simple. The cellar dwellar teams, Rams, Dolphins and Bengals are big dogs for a reason as Vegas has taken a position against these teams thinking they stink. FAIR ENOUGH We'll give them that, and they are protecting themselves that way- This is like their insurance policy vs these teams-

However they also take different positions on other games--

Case in point- Vegas has become emotional this week, like an angry girlfriend or a spoiled rich kid. I feel they have made some lines a little inflated based on week 1 and week 2--

Ex1- Indy is -5 over Jacksonville- Not sure how Indy is -5 with no Bobby Sanders, not sure if Dallas Clark is still out? No Boddy Sanders is huge, he is the MVP on D. JAx are 0-2 at this point, but have not run the ball at all. Getting JAX in a must win game vs a depleted colts D?

Ex2- Chargers are -9 and are 0-2. This line was made out of an expectation that they just kick the Jets good. I am not sure the JEts are the type of team to just kick. They are like grapplers they can make the game low scoring and hang on and smother you. Their D is not half bad also.

Ex3- Without even doing any reasearch on this game, they instill Dallas as -3 favorites in GBAY- I know for a fact that they will inflate each of Dallas's lines this year. GBAY is for sure the 2nd best team in the NFC, Dallas is rated as #1- #1 playing at #2 on the road should not be -3 points.

Vegas has taken the approach that Dallas, Indy and Chargers were the preseason favorites, so we will favor them accordingly--

OAKLAND: This is strange, they had them at +2.5 vs Denver in week 1 and gave them a chance to win that game outright with that line. After 1 horrible game they get +3.5 at KC, and win easy, then they get +9 at Buffalo who has looked good winning week 1 and week 2, vs Seattle and JAxonville- Talk about Vegas going sour on Oakland fast? Its like they just dumped a girlfriend, that is how they approached Oakland.


THe real key to winning is this point:

Watching games is usefull to a certain degree to analyze a team's play and how good they are. However sometimes we expect them to play that way every week which is not the case. Take it with a grain of salt as every week is different and each team presents different problems and different matchups-

IN week 1 some teams looked like shit and lost in week 2 also looking like shit again! But remember the old saying "believe nothing you hear and only 50% of what you see". Oakland and Washington in week 1 were so bad and people were saying they will not win any games and will be in tough this year. Well both looked like shit in week 1 and both teams won their games in week 2--

This week 3 we will have some teams continuing to shit the bed as they did in week 1 and week 2.

However what I am thinking is that we can definitely find a team in week 3 that will break their bad play in week 1 and week 2. Already on the radar is Jaxonville possibly because they are a good team that has not run the ball yet.

Betting vs the Cellar dwellars is not getting my interest because the lines are reflecting their play, as you are laying over 10 on those games--


Vegas has taken a strong position, but in sports when you are at a LOW you can only go HIGHER. This is true with Oak and washington last week.

However there will be some teams that are incapable of doing better like Rams and BEngals whose problems may be a case of just a team in dissarray all the way throughout.

Case in point: I play on a recreation football team- We finished last 2 seasons ago. We came back last season made the finals and lost. This year we were expected to do well. We got shutout the first game of the season, and then we also got shutout the 2nd game of the season. REASON: Our QB stinks and is not making reads or doing anything. He is collapsing and we need a change or we will keep getting shutout-

So what we have is sometimes a team is just plain shit and can keep losing, aka RAMS: THEY HAVE NOT PASSED THE RED ZONE OF A TEAM YET!

wHAT WE NEED TO FIND IS A TEAM THAT IS CONSIDERED SHIT BUT IT IS NOT SHIT. DETROIT PLAYED WELL AND WAS BEATING GBAY WITH 8 MINS IN 4TH QTR AND LOST BY 20, SO THE SCORE MAY BE A BIT MISLEADING THERE-

49'ers favored with JT OSULLIVAN is a scary scary scary thing! HE holds the ball very long, and the 49'ers basically need every break to get a win. I can tell you from my experience that the 49'ers favored usually results in a bettor saying to himself "WHY DID I BET THIS FUCKING TEAM AS A FAVORITE? It almost never fails because "THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

THoughts on the BROWNS:

Jamal LEWIS looks like a cartoon character running on ice- his feet are moving really fast but he is not gaining any yards!

Derrick ANDERSON is not a #1 QB- I knew this from day 1-

REASON: Kellen Soldier Winslow and Braylon Edwards: Kellen Winslow is great, he can beat most Db's and get open no problem. BRAYLON also is a talent and can get open deep and has good size.

THis year Braylon is dropping balls like crazy, and Kellen was being covered by Palamulu on PItts.

When you have weapons that Cleveland has, it is not hard for a QB to come in and have instant success. However once teams have film on you, you are done. Derrick Anderson has accomplished nothing in the NFL? DId he win a playoff game? DId he get his team to a playoff game? DId he start 0-2 this year?

What has he done? IMO he is a failure at QB. he blew the chance to get them their last year to the playoffs- HIS QB rating is horrible after his first 4 starts last year--

Quite simply this is one of the most overrated offenses in the NFL- Anderson has no mobility and throws to Braylon and Kellen. Jamal Lewis is washed up bigtime--

Kellen is a gamer and has hands, Braylon has no hands, but can get open.

Put any backup QB on Cleveland and watch them have success with those 2 guys on offense. NOt to mention they had Cribbs and Jurevicus onoffens also--

So I am tired of people saying what is wrong with the BROWNS"

THE BROWNS are summed up in one play this year"

"Down 7, they kick a 3 to bring them within 4 with 3 mins left" This is a sign to me that they are not confident, do you think for 1 second MIKE SHANAHAN would have done that? What about Bellicheck? Wade PHILLIPS, I can guarantee you all they would go for the Td!

In reality when you think of it, you have ROMEO a not very smart football coach, coupled with a immobile Derrick Anderson with a washed up Jamal Lewis, being flanked by WINSLOW a STUD, and EDWARDS a talent with suspect hands. This is not a recipe to win games in this league--

 

[BlitzBandit]

you actually summed up some of what I was going to say in your second post...

trying to dig hard into the drive logs and going through the play-by-plays and even watching the games only goes so far...

like you said, every team plays different every week...

you can probably find the Giants O-line to be better than Dallas' to this point.. but Dallas has played the offenses of Philly and Cleveland with GB up next... The Giants played the offenses of Washington and the Rams with the Bengals next... so digging up stats on all that will probably only take you so far... and may even mislead you in some ways...

you also have to consider the matchups at hand as well as the emotional factors of each team... seems every situation is different and all teams react differently to every situation.

just food for thought.

gl this week Sammy.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good stuff BLITZ---

That's exactly my thoughts also. I am trying to find the teams that maybe had 1 bad game and are better than Vegas is giving them credit for--

There are some teams like Oakland and Detroit who played perhaps at this point some of the best teams in the NFL--
Oak played Denver who is scoring on everyone- they put 39 on Sandiego who has a D. Detroit played GBAY who is a good team with fast receivers not the greatest matchup for them-

I also agree the emotion is huge, because like how do the giants get up for the bengals? It is these TRAP GAMES that are hard for a team to get up for.

Having seen 49'ers play I am not sure this team should be -4 over Detroit. This is just a thinking that the 49'ers get wins when they are dogs, not sure they can handle the favorite role here-

 

[tee*dub]

GL this week bro..

Directv shows rebroadcast of all games, condensed, commercial free..Each takes about 30 minutes.. Studying game logs is very tedious IMo and often inaccurate conclusions are made.. Just FYI-- I take an afternoon and watch all the condensed games on DVR so I can pause and replay.. Doesn't take near as much time as studying game logs and much more accurate. I watch line play 80% of the time. Easy to draw quick conclusions like Carolina is going to have huge problems this week with Minny's front 4.

JUst an idea for you.. Regardless your method, your diligence will pay off.:shake:

Seattle as a DD chalk at this point is ridiculous btw. Only reason Vegas made it this is because they could..

 

[YesSir]

BOL with this strategy...just a waste of time and boring IMO....Hope it works for ya

 

[lidspinner]

GL this week bro..

Directv shows rebroadcast of all games, condensed, commercial free..Each takes about 30 minutes.. Studying game logs is very tedious IMo and often inaccurate conclusions are made.. Just FYI-- I take an afternoon and watch all the condensed games on DVR so I can pause and replay.. Doesn't take near as much time as studying game logs and much more accurate. I watch line play 80% of the time. Easy to draw quick conclusions like Carolina is going to have huge problems this week with Minny's front 4.

JUst an idea for you.. Regardless your method, your diligence will pay off.:shake:

Seattle as a DD chalk at this point is ridiculous btw. Only reason Vegas made it this is because they could..

couldnt agrree more....I tivo all the replays and focus on line play. It does take time but I ususally only watch the games that I am not sold on....which tends to be more than normal. lol......I also kept a log last year of my "instinct" bets compared to my "research" bets, if I get time tomorrow I will post my findings..

 

[MeasyMoney]

liking a lot of your thoughts and write-ups sammy...with you goin this hard at the capping i will definitely be tailin you on some picks!! cant wait to see your plays...good shit

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Dallas and Green Bay have allowed a startling low total of sacks this season-

Dallas has allowed 0 sacks this season.
Gbay has allowed 1 sack vs Detroit and 0 vs Minnesota's good front 4--

That is a combined 1 sack allowed by these 2 teams--

Of note is that GBAY QB Rodgers avg completion is 8.2 yards in the first 2 games this year-

Dallas QB ROMO avg completion is 10 yards. This is worth noting as Dallas is really throwing a lot of passes downfield early on this year-

Looking at this game, we have 2 QB's that do not rely on the RUN, they will sit in the pocket and survey the field and look for a target--

With the O line allowing only 1 combined sack with these 2 teams, and with OWENS, Whitten, and the speedy Jennings and Driver, these guys will get open no doubts about that--

Rodgers was 18 for 22 vs MINNY- very high completion rate-- 84% rate-
Rodgers was 24 for 38 vs Detroit-- Decent completion rate of close to 65%

ROMO was 21 of 30 vs Philly -- 70% completion rate
Romo was 24 of 32 vs CLEVELAnd-- 76% completion rate--

The completion rates of these 2 teams is ridiculously high, with the 1 sack allowed by these 2 teams, it is inevitable that these QB's will find a receiver open, as they are fast and solid receivers-


THis explains the total of 51 on this game-- Vegas is on point with putting out a 51 for this game---

However worth noting is that GBAY played 2 teams that are not great vs the pass. MINNY was last in the league vs pass last year, and not great this year. Detroit has a slow footed secondary, they have no speed DB's at all, GBAY Receivers own them and run right by them-

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

SanFran vs Detroit has some interesting numbers on SACKS allowed--

San Fran allowed 4 sacks vs Arizona
San fran allowed 8 sacks vs Seattle

Detroit allowed 3 sacks vs Atlanta
Detroit allowed 5 sacks vs GBAY-

San fran allowed 12 sacks and Detroit allowed 8 for a total of 20 sacks--

Detroit Db's have allowed receivers to go nuts on them-

<table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td class="yspdetailttl first" align="left" height="18">Green Bay</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Rec</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Yds</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Avg</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Lng</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">TD</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">FumL </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> G. Jennings</td> <td>6</td> <td>167</td> <td>27.8</td> <td>62</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> D. Driver</td> <td>7</td> <td>52</td> <td>7.4</td> <td>17</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> J. Nelson</td> <td>1</td> <td>29</td> <td>29.0</td> <td>29</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> J. Jones</td> <td>4</td> <td>29</td> <td>7.3</td> <td>9</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> D. Lee</td> <td>2</td> <td>27</td> <td>13.5</td> <td>26</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> K. Lumpkin</td> <td>3</td> <td>22</td> <td>7.3</td> <td>12</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> B. Jackson</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>2</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td class="yspdetailttl first" align="left" height="18"> Detroit</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Rec</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Yds</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Avg</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Lng</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">TD</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td class="yspdetailttl first" align="left" height="18">Atlanta</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Rec</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Yds</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Avg</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">Lng</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">TD</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">FumL </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> M. Jenkins</td> <td>1</td> <td>62</td> <td>62.0</td> <td>62</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> R. White</td> <td>2</td> <td>54</td> <td>27.0</td> <td>46</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> B. Hartsock</td> <td>1</td> <td>17</td> <td>17.0</td> <td>17</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> J. Peelle</td> <td>1</td> <td>13</td> <td>13.0</td> <td>13</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> J. Norwood</td> <td>2</td> <td>6</td> <td>3.0</td> <td>3</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> M. Turner</td> <td>1</td> <td>6</td> <td>6.0</td> <td>6</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> O. Mughelli</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>3.0</td> <td>3</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td></tr></tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td height="7">
</td></tr></tbody></table> <table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr class="yspsctbg"> <td class="ysptblhdr" height="18" width="30%"> Kicking</td></tr></tbody></table>

Detroit allowed 318 rush yards and got beat on the ground-- Next game they only allow 123 yards on the ground but get beat for 325 yards in the air. PIck your poison as they lost with both the run and pass beating them in 2 weeks-


This is a game where both teams cannot pass protect very well. Osullivan on sanfran hangs on to the bell a long time and waits for deep routes to open up.

Detroit has made only 2 sacks on the season so far. 49'ers have 4 sacks on the season.

Sanfran is 8 for 22 in 3rd down conversions this year-- just around 36% conversion rate-

Detroit is 4 for 21 on 3rd down conversion rates this year- around 20% conversion rate-


What is absolutely amazing is that DETROIT has converted 20% of 3rd downs and yet had scores totalling 55 points vs Atlanta and 73 points vs GBAY, although 14 were on late interception td;s--

San fran also had a 63 point game vs Seattle and a 36 point game vs Arizona-

San fran allowed only 10 of 29 3rd down conversions against them on D

detroit allowed 12 of 25 3rd down conversions on them on D-- ATL 3 for 9 and GBAY was 9 of 16-

What can be deduced from the numbers is that Detroit allows 50% of 3rd down conversions on them-

Detroit gets scored on through the air, and they also can score on teams with long plays, they cannot convert 3rd downs and have long long drives but they can score points-

Detroit has shown no ability to stop a team yet this season-

San Fran could not stop Warners short passing attack in that game, they stopped Seattle but they had practice squad receivers starting in that game-


Detroit has been outscored 28-0 in the 1st qtr and 42-17 in 1st half this season-

Detroit faces former coordintor MARTZ- last time he faced a former team he was fired from STLOUIS HE put up 34 points in a losing effort-

Osullivan was also on the Lions and was not resigned--

MEATBALL Bottom line " Detroit has a couple of top flite wideouts with a QB when given time can get the ball to them" Mike MARTZ has always been one dimensional and has allowed the most sacks in the NFL, he already has allowed 12 this year in 2 games with his play calling-

Detroit can score on teams- if they start out better and dont fall behind I think they can play with Sanfran who has been sacked 12 times and not show the consistency in the passing game yet.
Detroit has looked horrible in 2 games but I think the errors are correctable, they were leading GBAY in the 4th qtr, before giving up a TD, and then throwing 2 int's for TD's. Vs ATL they fell behind 21-0 also in that game-
I would think their focus would be to start fast in this game. I can see this game being a back and forth affair where DETROIT has the playmakers on offense to stay in this game-
San Frans 12 sacks is concern for me, because it shows me that their pass routes and offense is not on target, that is not a good thing when a QB gets sacked that many times- Even last week they barely won vs a depleted Seattle team-

I am feeling that this 4 points is generous and I see a close game if 49'ers win I see them winning by the slimmest of margins or even losing to Detroit-

49'ers do not have the winning culture, so to favor them by 4 is a little concerning-

The positives out of Detroit is that even after getting smoked and trailing 21-0 in both games they were within 10 points of ATL and took the lead over GBAY, this shows me this team can play-

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

St Louis has been sacked 10 times in 2 games, they did play Philly and Giants but 10 is a lot--

Seattle has been sacked 6 times in 2 games--

St lOUIS is 3 for 24 on 3rd down conversions- really bad %

Seattle is 8 of 29 on 3rd down conversions-- about 30% rate-

The Seattle 9 sacks they have got in 2 games may be a problem for hte RAMS as they cannot protect the QB--

 

[BlitzBandit]

Detroit allowed 318 rush yards and got beat on the ground-- Next game they only allow 123 yards on the ground but get beat for 325 yards in the air. PIck your poison as they lost with both the run and pass beating them in 2 weeks-

I don't think it's too safe to use ONLY when you say they allowed 123 yards on the ground... it's true they got beat like hell through the air, but it's not like they were really stopping the run or like the GB ground game wasn't working or anything...

I know Grant only had 20 yards or so on 15 carries with his longest run being a 5 yarder or something, but the guy was questionable for the game due to his hamstring... I mean, Atlanta ran all over this team for over 300 yards and 3 tds on the ground... and if you don't include Grant for GB, Brandon Jackson had 7 carries for 61 yards (over 11 yards per carry), and the team as a whole (not including Grant) had 15 carries for 103 yards on the ground (almost 7 yards per carry).. hell, Kregg Lumpkin was only given the ball once and he got 19 yards with it.

Detroit gets scored on through the air

They have allowed 4 tds through the air and 4 tds through the ground... I guess that was my point above.. that even though I agree they get scored on through the air, they also get scored on through the ground.

As much as I think SF can have success here through the air, there's no reason to think Gore (who had 96 rushing yards on the Cards on only 14 carries (6.8 per carry) and over 60 yards against Seattle on the road) wouldn't be able to succeed against Detroit... and even lead the way to set up the pass. It's like you said.. they just haven't shown they can stop anybody... and I don't think SF needs to get pass-happy... they should be able to pound it with Gore enough to get things going their way.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Yes Blitz the D is crap on Detroit so far, especially early on in games, if you look at their roster you will not know any of their players. They obviously have issues, they did have GBAY at 25 points in the fourth until they exploded for 3 late Td;s--


FOr the Dallas GBAY game, it is an intriguing game to say the least. What I do think is though so far is that in a prime time game like that where both teams have great athletes and players it will come down to which QB plays better. I am not sure RODGERS with 2 games can match ROMO who has played many prime time games--

Dallas O is really good in that they score td's quite a bit, usually Al hARRIS gets beat by the more physical Receivers like OWENS and BURRESS-

GBAY was one late TD away from losing to MINNY in that game, and also was losing to Detroit in the 4th qtr after a game where they led 21-0.

GBAY is good, but not on the level of Dallas. They went from playing MInny and Tavaris who was benched for the year and KITNA who is sack prone and still managed to get the lead on them. This week it is a big step up in competition with ROMO-- I know to take the better QB in these prime time games as I feel the better QB's usually shine in prime time games over the other QB--


This year--

PRIME TIME GAMES--

ORTON over MANNING-- WEAKER QB WINS- MAnning no preseason play?
CUTLER over Russes-- Better QB wins
Rothyberger over Anderson- Better QB wins-
Manning over Campbell- Better QB Wins
ROMO over Mcnabb- Better QB wins-

So far it is 4-1 with the better QB winning the games--

I think ROMO is definitely better than RODGERS at this point. He has to be, he has thrown way more passes is more comfortable in the offense-

For GBAY to win everyone would be thinking that RODGERS is the real deal and he will have to outplay ROMO, because as we know ROMO does not get sacked and he completes about 70% of his passes- This is putting tons of pressure on RODGERS to be very good--

Last year DALLAS did very well on the Sunday night games------

Dallas clearly beat Cleveland, and vs Philly due to some sloppy play and good Philly play they still won. It was like tennis, in that they always knew that they would hold serve and score when they got the ball--
The way this team can score is scary because of their huge O LINE--

The concern for Dallas should be the GBAY's JENNINGs and DRIVER who are very fast receivers. If DALLAS has NEWMAN and PACMAN to contain and force them from not getting many deep passes, DALLAS will beat GBAY-

I thikn DALLAS can do enough vs the RUn and force RODGERS To beat them in the air, however it is hard to stop Jennings who may be the fastest receiver that no one talks about. Driver is also lightning-

"What you see from GBAYperhaps more than any team in this league is their receivers catching passes and taking it all the way to the house and scoring Td's-- They have that ability to make the big play-


Dallas has shown an ability to not defend the deep pass very well. Vs Philly both LEWIS and JACKSON got way behind the secondary and Edwards dropped an easy Td vs DALAS when he got free behind the db's--

The more I look at this game I can see what happened with the total--

This should have opened up at a 48 to 49 total. I believe they put this total at 51 to scare people off the over---

BUt as I have pointed out, both teams IMO should have no problem scoring on each other-- I cannot see either having success stopping the passing games of each team--

Dallas wll have Anthony Henry at SAfety and Pacman starting at corner-

Dallas has not lost to a first year starter in 4 years--

Both teams have had one high scoring and one low scoring game--

DALLAS is a high scoring team, their coverage is soft on D, and their O will score--
GBAY seems to be able to score also on O, their D is good--

As much as I think ROMO is better than Rodgers and it is hard to bet vs DALLAS, I Feel this line should be a PICK-- Subtract 3 points off Dallas line and you will find the real line--

WIth the new secondary issues of DALLAS and the -3 line, I will not bet them even though I think they can win because of the fact to beat DALLAS you have to outscore them, cause they will score plenty of points in each game- 28 vs Cleveland where they let up and 41 vs Philly shows me wow this team can score- No one and I mean no one is getting through the DALLAS O line so far this year-


AN over under for Dallas of 51--- WHat must be done is to predict how much GBAY can score. I feel there is a good chance that DALLAS will score 30 points, at least in the high twenties-- They have shown great O line play and the ability to score on deep passes, so I feel they can score thirty, in which that case you would need GBAY to get around 24 points-

After watching pHILLY move the ball with backup wideouts, now Dallas will face the fastest tandem in JENNINGS and DRIVER- I dont think Dallas will hold GBAY to under twenty points unless RODGERS stinks it up and has stage fright which i doubt- I think in this game receivers are so fast and with good O line time the QB's are both smart and can find the receivers-

Truthfully from what I have seen these 2 QB's are amongst the youngest future stars in this league-

IN a tight game like this though, I feel the QB play of ROMO may be the difference here, but dont think value is there at -3. ALso dont like the changes in the Dallas secondary--

I am leaning towards the over in this game-- I have to check weather and rain factors, but pending good weather I see some points being scored in this game-

Points that support the over- 2 changes in a secondary-

-Possibly Dallas will score the most points this season in the NFL-
-GBAY has the weapons that Dallas has trouble stopping fast receivers who can get deep- remember Santana MOss vs Cowboys-
-Great O line play with limited sacks-
-Wicked receivers who always have the edge on any DB-
-2 QB's that are not looking to run with the ball and are throwing the ball-
-A run game that is good but is used as a complement to the pass game-
-Aggressive pass plays that are all downfield, you will not see many 5 to 7 yard routes here, which you see with Arizona in game 1 and with the Bears-
-PRime time games IMO when the lights are on the receivers are trying way harder to score td's, this puts pressure on Db's and receivers just go nuts-
-Return game of DALLAS is amazing, JONES had 245 yards on returns last week, this puts offense with great field position-
GBAY return game is also very good, so when you start at your 35 and basicaly need 35 yards to get into field goal range it makes a high scoring game likely.

 

[Troutman]

GL this week bro..

Directv shows rebroadcast of all games, condensed, commercial free..Each takes about 30 minutes.. Studying game logs is very tedious IMo and often inaccurate conclusions are made.. Just FYI-- I take an afternoon and watch all the condensed games on DVR so I can pause and replay.. Doesn't take near as much time as studying game logs and much more accurate. I watch line play 80% of the time. Easy to draw quick conclusions like Carolina is going to have huge problems this week with Minny's front 4.

JUst an idea for you.. Regardless your method, your diligence will pay off.:shake:

Seattle as a DD chalk at this point is ridiculous btw. Only reason Vegas made it this is because they could..

When does direct play these games? What channel?

 

[lidspinner]

When does direct play these games? What channel?

do you have the NFL ticket?

 

[BlitzBandit]

When does direct play these games? What channel?

you have to have the NFL GAMEDAY Package... it's like an extra 250 bucks or so...

with it you get to see every NFL game live by either watching the game of your choice in a specific channel or by viewing one channel that is playing all of em' on one screen at the same time in mini frames... then on Monday Nights after midnight, they start showing the short cuts (every game play by play cut down to 30 minutes (no huddles, no extra camera views.. just the plays with maybe a couple replays of tds here and there)... they show em' back to back til Wednesday at 5am on two different channels (703 and 704) so they are able to show every game more than once... Sunday Night, Monday Night, or any other Special time games outside of the 1pm and 4pm Sunday games are not included in those short cuts.

 

[tee*dub]

you have to have the NFL GAMEDAY Package... it's like an extra 250 bucks or so...

with it you get to see every NFL game live by either watching the game of your choice in a specific channel or by viewing one channel that is playing all of em' on one screen at the same time in mini frames... then on Monday Nights after midnight, they start showing the short cuts (every game play by play cut down to 30 minutes (no huddles, no extra camera views.. just the plays with maybe a couple replays of tds here and there)... they show em' back to back til Wednesday at 5am on two different channels (703 and 704) so they are able to show every game more than once... Sunday Night, Monday Night, or any other Special time games outside of the 1pm and 4pm Sunday games are not included in those short cuts.

To be honest, if one is serious about betting in the NFL and is not utilizing this, you are missing a key component to capping.. Just my opinion.. If you do it for fun, no big deal, but if you are in it for the long run this is a must guys... Also I have mentioned this before and will repeat, The LIVE gamemix on Sundays allows you to watch 8 games at once in crystal clear HD. I was 16-7 LY in HT wagers and I credit most of that success to the gamemix.. The books have a lot of pressure to set HT lines quickly and they often just do it by formula (as a component of game line). Keeping track of game trends, injuries, especially to the offensive line, and other factors give you an edge.. Its not for everybody because it takes a lot of the fun of watching one game out of the equasion but it is a must for me to be successful..

Sorry Sammy for using your thread space for this... Excellent thread btw..

Separate subject.

I'll Throw this out.. A majority of the time this year the Rams secondary has gotten beat it was because of mix ups in coverages and it always came when they were attempting to disguise coverage. Name one receiver on the Seattle offense that can exploit that weakness?

 

[wiseplayer]

If I can add to what's happening with my beloved Rams. I getting the feeling this game stays close.

Hasslet has admitted to making the defense to complicated to disguise what the defense is running. He's going to simplify it this week and let the players play. On the offensive side we're going to see more Steven Jackson. Look for him to carry between 20-30 times. He says he's ready and also wants the ball more. Al Saunders is ready to call SJ's number. Rams are something like 14-4 when SJ carries the ball 20 times or more.

Seattle is suffering with an assortment of injuries at WR. It showed against the Niners. Dropped balls and WR's running bad routes were an issue last week. Hasselbeck also seems to be nursing a back injury. The Niners defense also didn't put any pressure at all on Hasselbeck. If the Rams can get after Seattle with Little (Check his hamstring status) and Witherspoon off the edge, they might have a chance to keep it close.

This game has a lot riding on it for both teams. I think it becomes a war and stays close. Rams can stay in it if SJ gets going. Take the game out of Bulgers hands and they'll keep it close. I called for 2 blowouts in the first 2 games but feel this games stays close. Seattle is laying too many points.
Just for the record...I won't put a penny on this game because the Rams can be that bad. GL!

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

TEE you are right, except we cannot get Direct TV in canada. We used to have the pirated cards but they went down. We can get dish network pirated or order the NFL sunday ticket, but its not like your direct tv package-

I agree with St Louis--

St Louis has played pathetic but did play 2 very good teams in the NFC east in Giants and Philly- Both of these teams can attack the passer, but more importantly they both play a ball control offense which kills clock and tires out a defense. Could it be that Rams panicked and became impatient playing these teams- they probably abandon the run quickly.

Rams can only go up, there is no way they can play any worse, emotion wise you would have to think as professionals that they see this as a winnable game this week-

Also Tee both Giants and Philly can run the ball, Seattle cannot run it well and has a ball control offense with no real receiving threats-

Taking Seattle at -9.5 breaks a cardinal rule of favoring a bad team at this point by almost 10 points. The rams are nothing to write home about but can only play better, they cannot look worse than they have. Seattle on the other hand will be lucky to get a win and will not be concerned about covering a 9.5 point spread-

From a football standpoint I do not see St Louis as being totally overmatched in this game vs Seattle. When a team is injured and barely able to field a receiving core you cannot favor them by 9.5 points-



I believe this same logic may come true with SANFRAN TEE. As much as people want this team to do good, I would never take them as a favorite. They give up tons of sacks and just do not have the winning culture.

Detroit on the other hand has fallen behind 21-0 in both games, I think they start out faster, and they have talent on O, enough to score in this league, they have no stopped anyone, but then again San Fran is not an offensive jugernaut 13 points vs ZONA, and then 33 vs Seattle, 7 off int return-

 

[BlitzBandit]

To be honest, if one is serious about betting in the NFL and is not utilizing this, you are missing a key component to capping..

agreed..

:shake:

I'll Throw this out.. A majority of the time this year the Rams secondary has gotten beat it was because of mix ups in coverages and it always came when they were attempting to disguise coverage. Name one receiver on the Seattle offense that can exploit that weakness?

I think the Rams' problems go way beyond blown pass coverages... it's not about any one receiver being able to exploit anything... both the Giants and the Eagles were able to do pretty much whatever they wanted... through the air and through the ground... and the Giants didn't even have reason to be motivated for that game... sure it was close for some time, but the score could have been alot worse considering the Giants were doing whatever at will... and with Seattle coming off a home loss to the Niners and with a bye lined up next, I don't see why they shouldn't be able to blow right by the Rams this week... regardless who's receiving the ball. I don't think that matters much this week... the Rams look clueless right now.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good points BLITZ---

One thing for sure is that when you take CINCY, RAMS, DOLPHINS, on the road you will probably not win many bets---

The RAMS may be worth a look at +9.5, but in all reality you have to ask yourself one question.

"AM I BETTING A GOOD Team" When you bet the Bengals, Rams or Dolphins you are always betting on a really bad team. Bad teams win on occasion but more than often if you want the skinny on this, it is really simple--

BENGALS-RAMS-DOLPHINS-DETROIT are the cellar dwellar TEAMS---------

THEY ARE 0-8 vs the SPREAD THIS YEAR

ITs the old saying that IMO you can bet against bad teams exclusively and guarantee a HEALTHY profit each year--

It is no coincidence that these teams are 0-8 vs the spread this year- IT is beacuse the spread means nothing, THE NFL is a win or loss league, you win your games you will cover most of them----

This week does present a little twist in that both the Detroits and Rams are playing teams that are not exactly superpowers so in all reality it is possible that these games could be close--

However with about 1500 games every weekend to analyze I am making the decision to avoid betting on bad teams for the rest of my career---

It is amazing how bad teams draw interest from bettors over and over, even though we know 0-8 vs the spread that they are not good for the wallet-

Betting on a BAD team is like betting on a BAD STOCK that is plummeting-
Betting on a BAD team is like buying a car with mechanical difficulties
Betting on a BAD team is like seriously dating a STRIPPER, in that you will get ripped off

The BAD teams as has been shown are so much worse than the Good teams, so an upset is very unlikely--

Out of the group of bad teams I think Detroit has the best potential as once they figure out the DEFENSE this team can score with their stud wideouts--

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

What I think has to be done is simple now----

I take a printout of the NFL standings. Except I dont look at page from first place to last place. I look at the standings exactly opposite, I look from last place to first place--

The teams that I will be interested in betting against will be these teams-

DOLPHINS- BROWNS-CHIEFS-LIONS-FALCONS-BENGALS- RAMS-SEAHAWK

I have exluded JAXONVILLE of this list and MINNY because they are decent-


DOLPHINS- BROWNS-CHIEFS-LIONS-FALCONS-BENGALS- RAMS-SEAHAWK

IMO Vegas has kicked the ball off to me and said okay you pick who you want, 16 games will be played, some good teams some bad teams some average teams are playing--

So to make things simple this is like a situation where when I am picking a side to back, why would I not bet vs
DOLPHINS- BROWNS-CHIEFS-LIONS-FALCONS-BENGALS- RAMS-SEAHAWK

To make it simple when these teams play good teams they cannot compete, this is making me think that the Dolphins may be a good play against this week--

This week the only teams are the Bengals and the Dolphins who are playing the Giants and the Pats--

EMOTION: It is unknown if the Giants or the PATS will be into this game, but the Dolphins and BEngals have little chance to upset, so if we bet vs them all we are concerned is covering the number-

The rest of the teams on the list are all playing vs each other which sucks-

Gun to my head I dont see how betting vs the Dolphins is a bad thing. I know BRADY is out, but the Pats should win that game.

 

[tee*dub]

agree with several points from wiseplayer above and I have the Rams as a heavy lean right now. Agree the Giants did well offensively but that was a seven point game in the fourth quarter and the Rams offense did virtually nothing.

Line is inflated IMO... Rams played two dynamic offenses so far that were rolling.. Shit Philly could have laid 50 on Cowboys if they hadn't gotten conservative.. With Giants, Burress long TD was a blown coverage..

Its easy to say-- give the ball to Jackson more but if it were that easy they would have done it by now.. Line s/b 6 or 7 IMO..

Just don't see this game being a blow out which is the only way one could back Seattle.

SF made a ton of mistakes or that game isn't even close..

I'm playin' Rams again.

Sammy- you got some good shit in here... Pace yourself bro, get some fresh Canadian air.

And what is up with Canadians not allowed to get direct TV? Thats bullshit.. How do they enforce it? People travel all over in Rvs with portable dishes and they have no clue were they are unless you hook up to a phone line which is not needed. I am serious when I say this -- I could not live an emotionally stable life without directv and all the sports packages.

 

[wiseplayer]

Tee dub, The Rams haven't given SJ the ball more because he missed 27 days of training camp. He hasn't been ready to take on a big load yet. Saunders wanted to keep him healthy early while SJ is trying to get in football shape.
I still can't put my money on a garbage team.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

TEE I try hard but it is no coincidence that without DIRECT TV I have not seen many teams play live. When I had it I was winning on baseball and football and college football-

I will find out a hack way of getting it, there was a guy here who had a connection somehow with Direct TV, but he was arrogant and I believe charging high rates. I may have to call his ass up anyway--

I am in desperate need of Direct TV or some dishnetwork as it is like betting BLIND basically cause I cannot watch shit but the tv games-


TEE with the Rams the good thing about that is that when no one wants a team it is usually a good time to take them-

I bet vs Seattle last week, I think their D is alright but there is no way a practice squad of receivers and a dinged up HASSYBECK, he got nailed on one play and you could see him grimmace on the sidelines. HASSY is a 100% timing quick read QB, with new receivers I dont think the reads are there, meaning they are not on the same page as the receivers at all. That resulted in the WILLLIS INT return last week for SANFRAN-

I also cannot get the feeling that Detroit will somehow be a close game with SANFRAN. This is a classic case of a team not sure about itself, I dont think the 49'ers have Detroit intimidated at all. I also feel that when the 9'ers win they usually do by a last second field goal. Their style breeds close games, I cannot see them blowing teams out because their O is not consistent enough, it can score but it can also fail.



Tee I have heard of Canadians using Americans address for billing and then getting the signal right to their door?

 

[BlitzBandit]

you can say Burress' td was a blown coverage, but I wouldn't recommend for anybody to start counting how many times Manning missed the open receivers... it was happening almost every play...

and I agree that it was a 7 pt game in the 4th quarter with the Rams doing virtually nothing, but the thing is... it was 20-7 and in the 4th quarter with the Giants in neutral gear before the Rams finally got their first td, and that td happened to be a long pass that was wrestled for by Holt that was more bullshit than not... no way should they have called that a td... it should have been incomplete... or even an int before a td...

that fluke td happens to be their only td all year... in fact, The Rams are the only team that has not had one single play inside the redzone yet... that's how shitty they are... I don't know how they expect to do anything AT Seattle if they are going to be counting on a fluke td...

I'm playing against the Rams again.. definitely.

 

[tee*dub]

you can say Burress' td was a blown coverage, but I wouldn't recommend for anybody to start counting how many times Manning missed the open receivers... it was happening almost every play...

and I agree that it was a 7 pt game in the 4th quarter with the Rams doing virtually nothing, but the thing is... it was 20-7 and in the 4th quarter with the Giants in neutral gear before the Rams finally got their first td, and that td happened to be a long pass that was wrestled for by Holt that was more bullshit than not... no way should they have called that a td... it should have been incomplete... or even an int before a td...

that fluke td happens to be their only td all year... in fact, The Rams are the only team that has not had one single play inside the redzone yet... that's how shitty they are... I don't know how they expect to do anything AT Seattle if they are going to be counting on a fluke td...

I'm playing against the Rams again.. definitely.

:cheers: so you think the Rams won't cover all year long?

Even the worst teams cover 40% of the time-- Just think this is the right spot for the Rams to cover Blitz.. We'll be together on many others but health on this one..:shake:

 

[tee*dub]

Tee dub, The Rams haven't given SJ the ball more because he missed 27 days of training camp. He hasn't been ready to take on a big load yet. Saunders wanted to keep him healthy early while SJ is trying to get in football shape.
I still can't put my money on a garbage team.

Also haven't gotten SJ the ball because they have been behind early in both games. Watched both carefully and they are not as bad as people think.. They have Pro bowlers all over the place-- Holt, SJ, Pace, Bulger, Little (if he plays). They aren't bad like the Dolphins with no talent. They are bad because they haven't put it together and yes, the key is to get an early lead which I think can happen and then it allows OC Saunders to pound the ball with Jackson a bit, which opens up play action and everything becomes easier.. Not saying the Rams win 7 or 8 games but the value on the ATS is clearly on them right now IMHO.opcorn::cheers: We shall see.

 

[BlitzBandit]

:cheers: so you think the Rams won't cover all year long?

Even the worst teams cover 40% of the time--

Just think this is the right spot for the Rams to cover Blitz..

I actually would bet against them all year long if I knew I was going to hit 60% for the season.. but I'm sure things won't be that easy.. hehe

I know exactly what you're saying tee... I'm not saying they are not going to cover all year long... I just don't think the first time they cover is going to be on the road against a team like Seattle with a less than double digit spread...

We'll be together on many others but health on this one..:shake:

yup

:shake:

 

[Tito]

Good Read, thanks - :cheers:

 

[xflrejects]

Sammy , this has been one hell of a pleasurable read. You have logged in a lot more time than my 30 years of being a fan (18 of them being a degenerate).A lot of very astute observations!

I loved your last stanza in the sections re: comments on the Browns:36_11_6:

 

[Trinitiy]

great thread sammy. thanks for your insight:cheers:

 

[ManchesterUk]

Good thread Sam,thanks