Week 3 - NFL BLITZ

BlitzBandit

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
Well, to say that I have had a horrible start would be an understatement, but I'm not too worried.. at least not yet anyway.. ;) I always take the first three weeks of the season as our chance to get a good feel for the teams and what to expect.. I think we can say things are starting to look clearer now. Anyway, this will be my last week taking things in stride (with one unit plays for all) and hopefully I can make up some ground this week of what I have already lost.. I've had bad starts before, but never this bad... haha.

The dogs were biting and attacking hard last week. Even though that may be a sign of whats to come, I don't think we should be expecting the dogs to be THAT fierce again... at least not all in ONE week..


I'll get to in-depth write-ups a bit later... right now, I'm going to throw out the plays I need to get out now and my leans for what's to come...



I'm going to be against the public on quite a few plays... but I will also ride the public on a few...

I know there was alot of inflated lines last week and many of us decided to take the chalk. I think those lines were a bit of an overreaction... I can't recall the last time there was ever so much chalk after one week of play... and yes, alot of us fell for it... I think the big chalk we see now may have to be taken more seriously though... with that said....

let me get to my plays... these are the plays I'm already on since I'm riding them with the public...


NE -16.5 ( vs BUF )

( 1 unit )

I know this is a huge spread, but there is no reason to think New England can't cover this spread. Right now, Belichek and Co. are focused and showing the world they don't need to cheat to win.. even if that means they have to win the next 10 games in a row to prove it.. hehe.. Don't overthink this game too much... I did that with NE last week.. ;)




PIT -9 ( vs SF )

( 1 unit )

The Pitt offense probably won't be as productive as they have been, but the defense is going to shut down Gore.. and then what else do the Niners have??... I really don't see them with more than 10 pts here. The Steelers have scored over 25 pts in both of their games so far... as long as they put up 20 pts here, they should cover... and I don't see any reason why they can't do that at home here against the Niners... The Niners defense has looked pretty good so far, but then again, they have played two not so great teams (Arizona and St. Louis)... Since both are entering this game undefeated, don't expect Pitt to lay down here... they will definitely show the Niners who the REAL undefeated team should be... I'll lay the points...



TB -3.5 ( vs STL )

( 1 unit )

Yup... I'm taking em' again. It's not a huge public play, but it's still more public than not... besides, I'm comfortable with this spread.. No reason why Cadillac can't run all over the Rams rush defense who are giving up about 140 yards rushing per game...



TEN +4.5 ( @ NO )

( 1 unit )

There are some people thinking New Orleans gets back on track here.. I think Tennessee has proven they can contain spread offenses and they can keep up with the best of em'... New Orleans hasn't looked that great... Drew Brees has thrown more interceptions than tds... plus C'mon... this is Vince Youngs' first Monday Night appearance... ;)




these are a few other public plays I like, but I'll probably end up avoiding them...



NYJ -3 (vs MIA )

MIN +3 ( @ KC )

CIN +3.5 ( @ SEA )

WAS -3.5 ( vs NYG )

DAL +3 ( @ CHI )



and here are the plays I like that are against the public... I'll wait on these before playing the ones I really like... hoping for the line to come my way...



BAL -9 ( vs ARI )

PHI -6 ( vs DET )

HOU +6 ( vs IND )

GB +4.5 ( vs SD )

OAK -3 ( vs CLE )

JAC +3 ( @ DEN )

ATL +4 ( vs CAR )




still looking things over...
 
Yeah i'm off to a TERRIBLE start as well. I'm with you on a lot of those, however I dont think I'll be touching that monster chalk in NE.

I really like Pitt to put a hurting on San Fran. They are a team on a mission.

I also really like Tennessee, but i'll prolly wait till monday or sunday to take action on that one.

GL this week.
 
Just a little caution with the Tampa pick. Last week STL held Gore in check......until he broke that 40 yard run. I think he only had a total of 80 something yards at the end of the game. Thats run D if you ask me(especially if you take away that big 40).

BUUUUTTTT: STL at Tampa, HOT, OUTDOORS, GRASS, whats not to like?
 
screw the Pats. they're too good...and since they destroyed the chargers, now i have to root against them the rest of the season.

really like the steelers...undecided on TB/STL & TEN/NO. gone back & forth on these two more than once already, which isn't a good sign.

not really leaning all that differently w/ the rest. biggest exception would be ATL...though maybe by next week, they'll be able to score.
 
agree with ur take on the pats and pitt just a lot of chalk to be laying, but then again at least their at home and their opponents are sub-par.
 
EDizzle said:
Yeah i'm off to a TERRIBLE start as well. I'm with you on a lot of those, however I dont think I'll be touching that monster chalk in NE.

I really like Pitt to put a hurting on San Fran. They are a team on a mission.

I also really like Tennessee, but i'll prolly wait till monday or sunday to take action on that one.

GL this week.
Click to expand...



Dizz... I hate playing the first three weeks of a season.. I have been burned too many times already with those weeks.. but all is good and once things settle, I think we will both be in business.... btw... great to see you like Pit as well... no way I see Gore doing much... and Alex Smith... well.. enough said.. hehe.. gl this week bud.
 
malapeet said:
Just a little caution with the Tampa pick. Last week STL held Gore in check......until he broke that 40 yard run. I think he only had a total of 80 something yards at the end of the game. Thats run D if you ask me(especially if you take away that big 40).

BUUUUTTTT: STL at Tampa, HOT, OUTDOORS, GRASS, whats not to like?
Click to expand...


good point on Gore bud.. the thing is, it's hard to say if that low performance last week was more St. Louis being good against the run or Gore not doing well so far.. period... I mean.. he did only have 55 yards on 18 carries on opening day against a below average Arizona defense... either way, should be a good one... gl this week bud.
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
screw the Pats. they're too good...and since they destroyed the chargers, now i have to root against them the rest of the season.

really like the steelers...undecided on TB/STL & TEN/NO. gone back & forth on these two more than once already, which isn't a good sign.

not really leaning all that differently w/ the rest. biggest exception would be ATL...though maybe by next week, they'll be able to score.
Click to expand...

well.. hope we kick ass on the ones we agree on bro... btw... don't hold too much of a grudge on the Pats... fading them won't be too wise for the long run.
 
add:


NY Jets -3

( 2 units )

Clemons actually played pretty good against a tough Baltimore defense last week. I figure Pennington will probably be good to go for this one, but whether he is or isn't, the running game will probably be more of a key in this matchup. Thomas Jones hasn't done much yet. He's averaging a bit less than three yards per carry this season, but when you take into into account that he has played two extremely tough defenses against the run (Patriots and Ravens), there is actually a good possibility he does well this week against the Phins. If LT and Rudi Johnson were held below 3 yards per carry against the Pats and Ravens defenses, theres' no reason to have expected more from Thomas Jones. Miamis' defense has looked below average against the run. They allowed over 190 yards rushing in week one against the skins and over 160 yards rushing against the Boys last week at home. Laverneous Coles seems to always be up for the Phins. He has scored 4 tds in the 4 games against them the past two years. There's no reason to think he can't have another big game here.

On the flip, Miamis' offense has looked like shit. Their running game is pretty much shot to hell. Ronnie Brown has been averaging under 3 yards per carry this season. And he's done that against defenses that allowed over 5 yards per carry to the other teams they have faced. The Jets don't have to be a rough in your face defense to stop the phins from running. It could be another long day for the phins.

Even though the line on the total is very low, I would still lean to the Under. The Jets have put up over 20 points only once agianst Miami in the last six meetings.. and over 17 in only three of those six... so if they plan to win this, which I think they do, there will probably be alot of running and defense in this one.
 
add:


ATL +3.5

( 1 unit )




JAC +3.5

( 1 unit )



BAL -9

( 1 unit )


also leaning to Cincy and Dallas, but I think I'm staying away from them in the end.
 
Blitz, looks like the only game we are sharing today is the Steelers. So we are not going against each other on anything. Thats a good thing. Lets give them the old " Great White Underwater Blitz" today :cheers:
 
Good like today blitz.

I definatly like the Steelers to beat an overrated 49ers team today. Maybe if it is close at halftime I will take the 2nd half.
 
NE -16.5 won

PIT -9 won

TB -3.5 won

TEN +4.5 pending

NY Jets -3 push

ATL +3.5 loss

JAC +3.5 won

BAL -9 loss


4-2 ( +1.8 units ) so far this week with TEN pending on Monday Night... still can't believe how Jets and Baltimore blew those big leads.. typical.

wasn't around much today, so thanks to all those I didnt' get to respond to.... I guess better late than never.. hehe.
 
4-2-1 it looks like with Tits pending..

not too bad sir


Typical NFL...your two losses both were up handily in second half...

Great capping this week
 
NE -16.5 won

PIT -9 won

TB -3.5 won

TEN +4.5 won

NY Jets -3 push

ATL +3.5 loss

JAC +3.5 won

BAL -9 loss



5-2 ( +2.8 units ) for the week... thanks to VY and the Titans... ;)


that helped considering how screwed things were the first couple of weeks for me... 7-13 (-9 units) overall now... looking forward to kicking things up a notch this week... now that things are settling down.
 
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