-week 3 ncaaf-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
sides: 9-10 -2.00
totals: 1-1 -0.10
ml dogs: 5-6 +5.80
big plays: 3-0 +9.00
ytd: +12.70


WEEK 3 FINAL CARD:

thurs...

North Carolina ML +180

fri...

***BIG PLAY - South Florida -3.5***

sat...

Miss St +10.5

Nevada +26.5

Temple +6/ML +200

Arkansas St -1.5

BYU -8/BYU 1H -5.5

Notre Dame ML +110

THEE Ohio State University +10.5/ML +340

San Jose St -6

GL:cheers:


 
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Week 2 recap:

http://cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=63642

sides: 7-5 +1.50
ml dogs: 2-4 +0.45
big plays: 1-0 +3.00
week 2 total: +4.95

I thought I had this week capped a lot better than week one, but a couple of things didn’t go my way, and I wound up with less net units than in week 1.
<O></O>
Temple ml (led basically the whole game, lost in OT at 2.65:1 odds), Navy (thought I had the right side here; 3 early stops by ball state in the redzone, a questionable go for it on 4<SUP>th</SUP> when I thought they should have kicked the fg that really changed the momentum down by the ball state goaline, and a couple of mistakes by the navy qb was the difference in this one), and Western Michigan (garbage td by N. Illinois with 40 secs left) were games I thought could have easily went my way…I am well aware to expect some bad beats, but this week NONE of my wins were ever in doubt; it woulda been nice for at least one of these to go my way…

Things I did right:

Nailed Temple ats vs Uconn, Michigan St/EMU went pretty much like I expected although a little close early, GT won a close defensive battle vs BC, Ohio played hard and took advantage of a horrible OSU spot, BG sucks pretty bad and was in a horrible spot with the week before + last year revenge, ECU is a lot better than a lot of people think…even myself although I’ve bet on them the first two weeks, BYU is significantly better at home and I believe will struggle vs good offensive teams on the road, Wake Forest is solid, but maybe not as good as a lot of people think, while Ole Miss are fighters and I believe will be a good bet as dogs this year…; I also stayed away from some moneylines that prob should have cashed in Ole Miss and Washington, so for that I’m fortunate; stayed away from south Carolina lean

Things I did poorly:

Overrated Kent State thus far…losing wagers on them the first two weeks; overrated New Mexico the first two weeks, although this past week was the only week I wagered on them I leaned them + pts vs TCU in week 1; overrated Memphis thus far…losing wagers on them the first two weeks; took the La Tech bait, although it still had a lot to do with Kansas being overrated imo, which I believe is still yet to be determined; I didn’t play against them either week, but I leaned against Akron both weeks, so I think I have them a little underrated at this point

Left on the table leans:

ECU ML; Georgia; PSU

Post-review Additions: taking a look at dmoney's thread and studying some of the boxscores, i may not have been as off on kent state as i thought...although i'm pretty shocked how many pts they let up. seems like it's the same story with them as last year...inefficient passing and shooting themselves in the foot with stupid turnovers (4 lost fumbles?) and mistakes. tough team to back if they're going to return to last year's form and not fix those problems

also didn't have memphis that wrong as i didn't realize they just blew it in the last 6 minutes to lose su after being up by 15...i was so wasted by then i wasn't barely even checking scores. good thing i wasn't'; these two piss me off, because i thought it was just w mich and navy that were on my "coulda shoulda woulda" list, but it appears as though i may have had two more...which leads me to having a very solid card...which is the good news. still not good to lose back to back weeks backing the same teams, but the only games i had very wrong were la tech (which i almost knew was coming) and new mexico (whose home ats numbers just keep getting worse and worse)

also from dmoney and some recaps i didn't appear to "nail" temple down exactly like i thought...a couple of missed fgs and some turnovers deep in temple territory contributed to the game quite a bit. this actually makes me feel a little better about the temple play vs buffalo...if they would have lost a game that they definitely should have won (for two years in a row), it would be tough to bounce back mentally. don't know how much easier it is that they probably deserved to lose a game they really wanted bad, but they have some bigtime revenge that will counteract that imo. revenge and lookaheads seemed to have been huge in week 2, so i hope that continues. still feel that it was such a close game throughout that i deserved to win ats, but probably not the ml, which is what i had originally thought...
 
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week 3 locked in plays:

thurs...

North Carolina ML +180

fri...

***BIG PLAY - South Florida -3.5***

sat...

Miss St +10.5

Nevada +26.5

Temple +6/ML +200

Arkansas St -1.5
 
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week 3 leans:

rice +
ball st -
byu -
south carolina +
wisc -
nd +
iowa -
uconn -
ohio st +/ml
fau +
mtsu +
sj st -


 
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joe - Why do you like Rice this week? Only reason I can think of is a possible "letdown" spot for Vandy after their big win against SC. In terms of overall talent, Vandy definitely has the upper hand...not to mention superior coaching, at least in my opinion. Vandy has a superior rush defense, a superior rushing offense...and they're only laying one TD at home, to a team that barely managed to come back against Memphis last week. Just trying to get your reasoning for leaning to Rice. Yes, Dillard & Co. are impressive, but this will be the stingiest defense they will have faced thus far.

That aside, I also lean to USF. GL this week!

:cheers:
 
aztec, i doubt they'll make my card as it appears i have underrated them this year so far, but i'm not completely convinced that i have. they have relied on big plays in both of their wins vs very stagnant offenses. outgained by 100 yards last week and won because of some turnovers and scar shot themselves in the foot a lot for vandy to win last week. the week before looked like a blowout, but a couple of big plays went vandy's way by way of miami shitting the bed...that game had very similar total yards as well...part of the reason of the rushing disparity is because the way vandy jumped out to an early lead...on a couple of picks, a 90 yard td return, a 60 yard qb scramble, a 70 yard pass on a pure defensive breakdown. raudabaugh threw 3 awful picks too. a lot of that is a stretch, as it obviously is a big part of football to find big plays on offense and special teams, and to create turnovers. however, i think it's worth noting that bad opposing qb play, and a lot of breaks really helped them out in both games. it was hardly as dominating performance as the score showed in miami, and i think scar shot themselves in the foot quite a bit too. defense is surely the best that rice has faced, but i think it's pretty safe to say that rice's offense is the best vandy's defense has faced...most definitely the most explosive. miami's and scar's offense looked dreadful both weeks, and we all know that is not the strength of either team. it should also be pointed out that the reason why they have to rely on big plays and the total yards are not corresponding with the scores is because of some very big problems in the interior of both lines that they've been able to cover up imo...not sure how long they can keep this going. they'll see a completely different type of team in rice, and they are in a big sandwich spot, coming off one of their biggest wins in school history, then they play rice, then start the sec schedule...not sure how they can possibly be too up for this game. my .02
 
North Carolina (ML)

well the books made their stance this week with the wisconsin/fresno and unc/rutgers lines. they saw the fresno win over rutgers more about fresno being good and less about rutgers. i disagree with this. probably not to the extent that i will play "opposite vegas" in both matchups, but i don't think rutgers is as good as the books made them out to be. i also know that i have acc ooc here, which is playing with fire seeing how some of these teams have fared. i also know all about butch davis, which i don't necessarily think is a positive when it comes to coaching (somehow i like his recruiting; i don't know why because i hated his drafts...different story). last year unc showed some promise in upsets over miami and maryland. they were a very young inexperienced team that returns 18 starters, and according to steele have dropped 36 spots in SOS this year...meaning they have a good chance to improve. they also were able to keep it tight with ecu, losing by 3...a good virginia defense, losing by 2, @ virginia tech losing by a td, losing by 6 vs south carolina, at gt losing by 2, and at nc st losing by 4....this has intrigued me this offseason.

back 7 is returning a pretty solid group, and should keep teel from being able to make too many plays down the field. yates should be much improved with a season under his belt, one that was filled with INTs. plenty of playmakers on the outside should test this talented rutgers secondary down the field, which was where they were vulnerable vs fresno.

rutgers offense did not impress me in the slightest. nothing really stuck out that they did well. they didn't run well against a very poor rush defense, which is definitely not a good sign because that is probably what is going to hurt unc this year, and they really didn't have much success passing at all. percentage, yards per pass, 3rd down efficiency, INTs by teel...looked awful. and to me, that fresno d isn't anything to write home about. obviously the pass was set up to a large degree by the success of their running game last year. their defense did ok, but seemed to give up big plays, which is how unc would score, because they have trouble running the football. i think a couple of big plays on the outside is all unc needs, and they're quite capable of doing so. to me, that is worth almost 2:1 odds against a team that has difficulty scoring many points. i think that they showed they can keep it close vs quality teams last year, and this year they get over that hump...
 
Interesting picks this week joe - BOL this week.
Does your SJSU lean change if Reed doesn't play?
 
I would be careful with Nevada, maybe they can cover that number. I however, think they are in a horrible situational spot, and now they are without Lippincott at running back. Mizzou defense is better than people think, mainly assignment breakdowns in week 1, think some of those get corrected (secondary is not the greatest, but front 7 is underrated). Mizzou should hang up 50 something minimum on the Wolfpack. I think the Mizzou defense matches up pretty well vs. Nevada and their short passing game. The only thing I like is the fact Pinkel has some class unlike Urban Meyer, and he won't classlessly run up the score. A sore spot as I had Miami last week (some at +22 and some at +21.5).

My initial instinct is to like South Florida, but Mangino as a dog is dangerous.

Good luck this week Broadway Joe.
 
Forgot to add:

Good luck on Mississippi State, on that with you.

I think Arkansas State is the right side

I like a lot of your leans too.........Played Rice +8.5, BYU -9.5, South Carolina +8

Against the Wisconsin lean.............as I played Fresno +1

I did not play San Jose State, but I believe that is the right side.......they looked impressive against Nebraska. I think they are underrated.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Interesting picks this week joe - BOL this week.
Does your SJSU lean change if Reed doesn't play?
Click to expand...

no dmoney.... i will most likely play that regardless....i think they're six points better without reed. but i haven't seen reed on the injury report, and all signs point that he'll be good to go on saturday.
 
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sirwinz what's so bad about their spot situationally besides coming close before falling short to texas tech? i realize the loss of lippincott seems big due to his leadership and production, but i think they have more than enough experience and leadership on offense. i don't think they're losing much at all talent-wise....and i expect the team to rally around the injury. time and time again you see the best player go down (positions other that qb) and the team plays well because of enhanced focus. fragger and taua have already been a part of nevada's gameplan, and they have the talent to replace him. and when you have a qb that can run the ball, that helps out as well....missing very minimally from a talent perspective imo. i really was impressed with the way the defense played last week despite the high numbers...not really that gaudy compared to what texas tech usually does. if they didn't keep settling for short fgs that could have been a very different game. we will just have to agree to disagree about mizzou's defense. despite stats/rankings, mizzou's best defense has been their incredible offense. their defense has not impressed me in the slightest this year or last year, and i think it has definite holes especially against the run. nevada just saw arguably an even more explosive offense than this one, so there is no shock. i think they will be right in this game til the end
 
week 3 leans:

rice +
ball st - OUT
byu -
south carolina + OUT
wisc - OUT
nd +
iowa -
uconn - OUT
ohio st +/ml
fau +
mtsu +
sj st -
 
South Florida -3.5

this is another classic case of underrated vs overrated imo. the books, the power rankings, the polls have all significantly underrated usf this year imo. and there is no way in hell kansas should be a top 15 team.

south florida has lost one game in each of the last three years, and has won by a margin of over 17 ppg at home during that stretch. they would have not covered this spread 4 times. those are good chances...

kansas did not face a defense as good as south florida's last year. they just didn't. on the road they got it done, but as expected at a much more humbling margin. the soft favorable schedule is well-known. both tackles and your number one target gone as a qb just simply isn't the same. lose their best defensive player. they won't be able to run the football at all i don't think, and although south florida is replacing their corners, i think kansas will see strong pressure that will hinder them on offense tremendously. grothe one of the most valuable players in the country. plenty of viable options for him to throw to with increased cohesion from last year. running game looks improved with plancher, williams, and ford. offense should easily be able to score. far better defense. very big homefield advantage. not sure if kansas even had a homefield advantage like the one they're about to face...colorado and tamu big ones, but the defensive disparity made it a lot easier on them. line should be 6. this is a team that will probably lose 4 games this year vs a team that i think has a real shot to run the table. either i've completely mis-rated BOTH of these teams, or i'm getting a steal here with this line.
 
Miss St +10.5

kick off sec competition with a good ol fashion dd dog at home. i was a little gunshy here at first, because frankly i don't understand this line. revenge maybe added a couple of points here? i don't know, but you have a team that in auburn that lost to mississippi state last year before they really got going (played at a different level from that kentucky game on imo). sure they outgained them last year, but mississippi state won despite zero production from the passing game. they won with defense, turnovers and running the football, which is how they win games. auburn's pass defense was amazing last year in this game and pretty much every game. but their rush defense was breakable, and i think it will be less effective against the rush this year while i assume msu will be able to pass more effectively as well, just because it will be hard not to be better than they were last year in this game, and they are at home. i doubt they can count on 5 turnovers this year, but i think they can fight toe to toe better. this auburn team has a green qb, a very different offensive system, two new coordinators, lost the better part of their dline and now face the offense's first real test of the year on the road in a hostile environment in conference play. i'm not sure you can point to many units on auburn as being better this year (at least in this game) besides for the offensive line. msu's defense is returning and will be better, putting pressure on and making plays in the secondary. msu's offense should also be better. two tds could easily be enough to cover this line, and i think they get there...
 
irish love covering in this series as home dogs (won su the last 3 times they were home dogs in this series of 10.5, 5.5, 6)....michigan's offense has looked so bad at home, how will they look at notre dame in a hostile environment? plus, several michigan players got banged up last week. i don't put a whole lot of stock in the way nd played vs san diego st because i believe they were looking past them (hard to believe a team as bad as nd has a lookahead but i buy it)...and i think this is an extremely important game for momentum for the irish for this season and the immediate future of the program. if they get beat badly here, i think it is a huge blow. i don't see it happening. i think this nd defense is fairly underrated, and don't believe michigan will be able to do much through the air. they haven't proven at all the ability to move the ball on the ground either. on the other side of the ball, if raudabaugh can move the ball in the passing game, clausen surely will be able to. surprisingly the wolverines have been vulnerable in the passing game, which i didn't expect, but i don't expect things to get better on the road. only shot michigan has in my estimation is if they can consistently run the ball, which can be negated if notre dame gets out to an early lead. this offense just looks way too dysfunctional to be a favorite on the road in a rivalry game. and the defense hasn't looked as advertised.
 
broadwayjoe said:
irish love covering in this series as home dogs (won su the last 3 times they were home dogs in this series of 10.5, 5.5, 6)....michigan's offense has looked so bad at home, how will they look at notre dame in a hostile environment? plus, several michigan players got banged up last week. i don't put a whole lot of stock in the way nd played vs san diego st because i believe they were looking past them (hard to believe a team as bad as nd has a lookahead but i buy it)...and i think this is an extremely important game for momentum for the irish for this season and the immediate future of the program. if they get beat badly here, i think it is a huge blow. i don't see it happening. i think this nd defense is fairly underrated, and don't believe michigan will be able to do much through the air. they haven't proven at all the ability to move the ball on the ground either. on the other side of the ball, if raudabaugh can move the ball in the passing game, clausen surely will be able to. surprisingly the wolverines have been vulnerable in the passing game, which i didn't expect, but i don't expect things to get better on the road. only shot michigan has in my estimation is if they can consistently run the ball, which can be negated if notre dame gets out to an early lead. this offense just looks way too dysfunctional to be a favorite on the road in a rivalry game. and the defense hasn't looked as advertised.
Click to expand...


thanks for the insight bud. valid points all.
 
Broadway, your big bets are pure gold...

See you're on Miss St; you're writeup is solid as usual, just disagree with the synopsis; revenge should have Auburn focused despite LSU on deck and the -4 TO differential from LY is something I would think you would have to count on again, considering the rushing attack that garnered 79 yds vs La Tech isn't likely to scare Auburn too much. I just don't see how Miss St scores in this game...that's my only disagreement.

All over USF as well...:shake:
 
great discussion

....First off, Rodibaugh did miss some opportunities but I think Miami is what we all thought they were heading into the season, an experienced solid MAC team. Downgraded a bit perhaps to Vandy loss. A better team then the Aztecs, and I will point out Miami faced a lateral option the week prior with Vandy.

You do bring up some great points with the Irish. I just don't buy Charlie was holding anything in, I thought he said before that game it was a statement game to show it's a new year. IMO his playcalling sucks and is VERY predictable. Screen, draw, deep on the hashes. Miami OH did throw over 300 on a secondary of Vandy I admire. Mich has played two games, advantage, and the Irish strength is secondary, not their front 7. All in all a game to try to stay away from I'm trying to do so.


Agree on Rutgers and Vandy not being impressive at all. Believe me, I was on the Fresno-Rutgers Over so I'm not impressed with that Rutgers O Fresno struggled last year. On the flip side though Fresno didn't really dominate that Rutgers D till late, one that struggled last year and in fall camp. Maybe a first game type overscout opponent type deal.

---IMO Rutgers was not impressive at times last year. They really showed an ability to be run on and same problem on offense, 3rd down ineffeciency. Now without Rice and OL even tougher.

I also thought Rutgers fought back through adversity and played really hard and salvaged alot to maintain where they are going. That angle serves well @home Thursday.

North Carolina, you site those close away losses. ACC sucked last year and none of those games do anything for me.

I think this ultimately is more of a feel pick. I like Rutgers due to the @home, hunger angle and the fact that quite frankly I'm not sold whatsoever on UNC and I think Teel will get something going.


---Any thoughts on not taking Ball State. Akron is solidily worse than last year IMO defensively. Syracuse most predictable offense in world. I do not see Ball State being stopped whatsoever, that balanced attack.

You mentioned BG sucked. Am I the only one liking them on the blue turf. -17 is no joke to cover. BG by the way, -5 TO's vs. Minney, led in the 4th. BG looks solid this year. Hell might even go with a ML in a throwaway, if Fresno was bad at times last year Boise certainly was. EDIT: Boise was really good last year, maybe not Hawkins good, but they do have their least experienced OLine in a decade and have only played one opponent, a 1AA.

The temple games have been misleading in a bad sense for them. Been ran on for over 200 by Army and UConn. What are you seeing in this Temple team, and also what's your take on Arkie State, it's a lean I have.
 
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Q: You’re favored by 13.5
Ferentz: This week? Oh great, wonderful. What was it last year?
Q: Similar.
Ferentz: Great.
Q: How do you explain that?
Ferentz: Delusional people. You bring that up, I just stumbled across an article from last year, going through my files, it listed the point spreads from the last however many years ,you guys saw it last year, but point spreads don’t mean anything in this series. We’ve proven that. We’ve proven that. I’m not telling anybody how to bet, but, you know….
Q: Do you worry about that playing into ISU’s hands, as it has in the past?
Ferentz: I’m sure it doesn’t hurt their cause, but I don’t know how we could be favored against anybody right now. By teens, anyway. Home field’s not work 13, is it?
 
horses said:
Broadway, your big bets are pure gold...

See you're on Miss St; you're writeup is solid as usual, just disagree with the synopsis; revenge should have Auburn focused despite LSU on deck and the -4 TO differential from LY is something I would think you would have to count on again, considering the rushing attack that garnered 79 yds vs La Tech isn't likely to scare Auburn too much. I just don't see how Miss St scores in this game...that's my only disagreement.

All over USF as well...:shake:
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thanks horses; you may very well be right, just think that playing miss st's defense with this new system is going to be a little different than playing southern miss. in some ways i think this game is comparable to the tenn/ucla game....new system on the road against a good defense on a team with an offense that can't move the ball. i know their defense is better than tenn's, but i still think there are similarities. i also think there is a good chance for another turnover disparity with miss st's discipline and hawking defense. i don't necessarily think they'll be able to score that much either, but i like my chances for miss st to find ways to score 14 pts at home...and i just can't see auburn getting past 24...completely see your point though and thanks for your input..

let's cash usf :shake:
 
O-State said:
Q: You’re favored by 13.5
Ferentz: This week? Oh great, wonderful. What was it last year?
Q: Similar.
Ferentz: Great.
Q: How do you explain that?
Ferentz: Delusional people. You bring that up, I just stumbled across an article from last year, going through my files, it listed the point spreads from the last however many years ,you guys saw it last year, but point spreads don’t mean anything in this series. We’ve proven that. We’ve proven that. I’m not telling anybody how to bet, but, you know….
Q: Do you worry about that playing into ISU’s hands, as it has in the past?
Ferentz: I’m sure it doesn’t hurt their cause, but I don’t know how we could be favored against anybody right now. By teens, anyway. Home field’s not work 13, is it?
Click to expand...

hahaha yeah i read this...guess i'm borderline delusional!! i don't know, i most likely won't play this just because of an unpredictable rivalry and iowa st trends vs iowa, but i am very confident they are 14 pts better and i think it's a good time to turn those trends around. kind of a game where you can throw capping out the window a lot of times though. but i do believe it's the right side...especially when you add that revenge. i think it's a little bit different than in 06 when they didn't cover because iowa is flying under the radar this year receiving virtually no national attention. most likely in my next round of eliminations though
 
O-State said:
great discussion

....First off, Rodibaugh did miss some opportunities but I think Miami is what we all thought they were heading into the season, an experienced solid MAC team. Downgraded a bit perhaps to Vandy loss. A better team then the Aztecs, and I will point out Miami faced a lateral option the week prior with Vandy.

You do bring up some great points with the Irish. I just don't buy Charlie was holding anything in, I thought he said before that game it was a statement game to show it's a new year. IMO his playcalling sucks and is VERY predictable. Screen, draw, deep on the hashes. Miami OH did throw over 300 on a secondary of Vandy I admire. Mich has played two games, advantage, and the Irish strength is secondary, not their front 7. All in all a game to try to stay away from I'm trying to do so.
Click to expand...

no doubt they're solid...i think that was a fairly easy side vs michigan (a week 2 win that i forgot to mention in my week 2 recap) due to the overreaction from vandy that really was a much closer game...but it did surprise me that if raudabaugh didn't miss a few throws that he should have made they could have won the game!!! they're offense has never been explosive and one could even easily argue not consistent, balanced, or efficient. i was hoping they'd find a way to score a few points and hold michigan to not doing a whole lot on offense, which they did, but it could have easily been more than that...and that was surprising to me. i think vandy's group is solid, but keep in mind miami was down 27-10 to some stupid turnovers (made in the passing game) and big plays early...so they were slinging it in comeback mode vs a team that didn't want to give up the big play so miami could get back in it...

absolutely agree on the irish...i don't think they are great at all. these are two teams with some very fundamental flaws at this point...and you're also right about 2 games vs 1 game (good point that i didn't really consider). i still think their offense can be more effective than miami's. agree with you that secondary is nd's strength and not their front 7, which goes along with my point of how the game could go with an energized crowd + early lead. a lot of things charlie does is restricted due to line play, and i definitely think he has some wrinkles for michigan that he didn't show....my lean has gotten less agressive on this game, and the line looks to be settled in. if it goes to 3 which is unlikely i will 90% jump on that, but right now i'd say it's about 50/50...i hate both teams, so maybe this is one where i sit back and enjoy their misery
 
O-State said:
Agree on Rutgers and Vandy not being impressive at all. Believe me, I was on the Fresno-Rutgers Over so I'm not impressed with that Rutgers O Fresno struggled last year. On the flip side though Fresno didn't really dominate that Rutgers D till late, one that struggled last year and in fall camp. Maybe a first game type overscout opponent type deal.

---IMO Rutgers was not impressive at times last year. They really showed an ability to be run on and same problem on offense, 3rd down ineffeciency. Now without Rice and OL even tougher.

I also thought Rutgers fought back through adversity and played really hard and salvaged alot to maintain where they are going. That angle serves well @home Thursday.

North Carolina, you site those close away losses. ACC sucked last year and none of those games do anything for me.

I think this ultimately is more of a feel pick. I like Rutgers due to the @home, hunger angle and the fact that quite frankly I'm not sold whatsoever on UNC and I think Teel will get something going.
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agree with a lot here. definitely a feel pick. rutgers well-coached to overcome challenges and stay motivated. and a big coaching advantage here for sure. also besides for fresno they usually play well on national tv. and agree that they're very un-impressive on offense.

i see your point on the acc, but i think it does say a lot for a program like unc in terms of confidence and improvement especially with a team that was so young and inexperienced last year, no matter how down the conference is. cohesion and confidence are huge, and i doubt that rutgers' hunger/motivation be great than unc's tomorrow night, but we'll see. in what i consider a toss up to who will win the game, i'll take the +180 almost every time.
 
O-State said:
---Any thoughts on not taking Ball State. Akron is solidily worse than last year IMO defensively. Syracuse most predictable offense in world. I do not see Ball State being stopped whatsoever, that balanced attack.

You mentioned BG sucked. Am I the only one liking them on the blue turf. -17 is no joke to cover. BG by the way, -5 TO's vs. Minney, led in the 4th. BG looks solid this year. Hell might even go with a ML in a throwaway, if Fresno was bad at times last year Boise certainly was. EDIT: Boise was really good last year, maybe not Hawkins good, but they do have their least experienced OLine in a decade and have only played one opponent, a 1AA.

The temple games have been misleading in a bad sense for them. Been ran on for over 200 by Army and UConn. What are you seeing in this Temple team, and also what's your take on Arkie State, it's a lean I have.
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i was of the impression that akron was going to be dreadful, and they still might be, but i think i have underrated them a little, which scares me off. the talent they have at the skills position is something that i have overlooked, and it's coming along with that new system. at home against a defense with major flaws imo. the defense is terrible against the run, but even more terrible against spread offenses. take a look at last year's spreads vs ball st...yes i know those teams had more talent, but it's a fundamental flaw when you allow gaudy numbers like that vs spread offenses (we should know as buckeyes fans). ball state's offense is very good, but besides apart from nate davis they do make some mistakes. akron should be able to score with some stuff they've added that ball hasn't seen from them before, and i think they'll have a special teams advantage despite love returning kicks for ballst. i wouldn't take the akron side, but there are too many concerns to lay 7 on the road. most people didn't think they can hang at all, but most people didn't think they could hang with central michigan last year either. their defense is dreadful, but i'm not convinced ball state's is significantly better. i can see a 34-28 type game possibly, but do believe ball is the right side

bg's defense is just atrocious imo, but they are a dangerous team as big dogs like that because they can in fact score on anyone. 17 is a lot, but i rarely bet on or against boise...i really, really hate that team and can't keep my emotions out of it. no idea what it is, but i just can't stand them. you're right about one thing; bg has to be a lot more polished at this point. i think boise's defense is overlooked though. might be able to give that oline some fits, force some turnovers, and build some momentum to snowball things. no matter who's on the line, the stache isn't on the sidelines, which means boise should be able to run ALL OVER bg. think their defense matches up to bg's in general. can't really see bg coming much closer than a td, but i don think the line is inflated. then again, i've thought every boise line has been inflated for the last 4 years...

i'll have my temple and akry st thoughts later on...

thanks for your opinions...much appreciated and a definite added benefit in narrowing down my leans :shake:
 
Looks like a very solid card in the making. Only one I think I disagree with is Arky St. I'm looking to catch 3 there and roll with USM.

Keep in mind Rice lost both starting LB's in the Memphis game (they play a 4-2-5). Coach Bailiff expressed disappointment in the play of the replacements, as the run defense fell off significantly in their absence.

I wouldn't worry too much about Lippencott. IMO he was overrated.

I'll be on MSU with you and maybe UNC. The only reason I'd stay off UNC is to see if something better comes along in the live betting. Sometimes laying off a side you like on a weeknight game is a good strategy -- then when they fall behind 7-0 you get a very good price. I esp. like the way this one shapes up. A quick long ball to Britt or Underwood would be ideal as I think UNC will do plenty of throwing and scoring of their own. The total is 45? Where do they come up with these numbers? Way too low.
 
Quickie note --

Boise home win streak is up to 45 if you don't count the bowl loss to BC (technically wasn't a home game).
 
agree on that unc total...books are expecting a bunch of morons that can't read between the lines through last week's scores in a few totals it seems...

matador, i'll get a little more in depth on this later, but revenge at home and a high probability of winning the battle on the ground doesn't bother you at all for usm?

agree with lippencott too..

thanks for the rice info...i knew about one, but wasn't aware both would be out this week. i think that lean for me has a lot to do with my stubborn grade on vandy, so i'm only about 40/60 on that one right now...still lookin at some things.

thanks for the input matador...always a pleasure..

do you think fau can hang???
 
Nice thread...gotta chime in...

That info on the Rice LB's helps move Vandy into a stronger lean category; like Broadway, I started them low in my rankings and am having a hard time moving them up. Throw in the fact they are relatively inexperienced and always seem to come up short in these exact same situations and it scares me...sure seems like the right side though. Rice is so one dimensional...

FYI...Mich St is really depth shy at the CB position; however, FAU defense sucks. I see this one right at the number...say 41-24 or thereabouts.
 
Joe --

My USM lean is based on having watched the play a good part of the second half vs Auburn, in addition to a thorough analysis of the opener vs ULL (no TV). I think their passing game is greatly improved, and defense as well.

Arky St. I know much less about. Personnel looks not much improved over last year, but they could be better than I think. I discount Texas Southern completely. They are just God-awful, losing 19 straight and 42 of 46. A lot of teams could hang an 80 on them, but most would stop short and have a little mercy. The TAMU game I saw none of either. But TAMU is also probably worse than people imagine. I notice you wrote a little about the TAMU/UNM game above. Well, that's another where the wrong team won. Check the game summary closely on that one as well -- UNM is a better team but lost partly due to poor QB play. TAMU couldn't run the ball a lick.

Re: FAU -- I hope not, b/c my MSU -16.5 is booked. Look at FAU's history. They have never come anywhere near being competitive on the road vs a BCS foe and the Texas game shows that probably they still aren't ready. They were essentially one possession better than UAB last week. They still have no clue on defense. They have a very talented receiving corps and a good QB, but otherwise are typical mediocre SBC fodder. MSU has to get 40 this week. Whether 45-14 or 42-38 I'm not sure, but obviously I suspect the former.
 
thanks fellas...kinda surprised to see you on mich st matador. i know fau's defense is horrible, but can their defense be worse than e michigan's?? they dicked around with emu before putting them away; and i'd argue fau has a better all around offense. also a lookahead that michigan state didn't have last week to notre dame. no doubt they get to 40, but i think there's a decent shot of fau getting to 24+...maybe i'll take a closer look at the over. i generally don't like to back defenses this poor, so this is probably one i'll end up cutting, but this is the only way i could play this one...

we have the next few days to argue around about usm/arky hahahha. i'll get into that this evening probably...

btw thanks for bringing my attention to the tamu/new mexico game...i'll add that one to my "coulda woulda shoulda" list from last week... it appears minny may have evened that one out though...because it may be a bit of a stretch in either game to say the other side should have won...the breaks probably evened out, but of course as a bettor it doesn't seem like it
 
broadwayjoe said:
thanks fellas...kinda surprised to see you on mich st matador. i know fau's defense is horrible, but can their defense be worse than e michigan's?? they dicked around with emu before putting them away; and i'd argue fau has a better all around offense. also a lookahead that michigan state didn't have last week to notre dame. no doubt they get to 40, but i think there's a decent shot of fau getting to 24+...maybe i'll take a closer look at the over. i generally don't like to back defenses this poor, so this is probably one i'll end up cutting, but this is the only way i could play this one...

we have the next few days to argue around about usm/arky hahahha. i'll get into that this evening probably...

btw thanks for bringing my attention to the tamu/new mexico game...i'll add that one to my "coulda woulda shoulda" list from last week... it appears minny may have evened that one out though...because it may be a bit of a stretch in either game to say the other side should have won...the breaks probably evened out, but of course as a bettor it doesn't seem like it
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You wouldn't know it by the 42-10 score, but I loved the way EMU played all game and loved their defensive strategy. Watched the whole game and thought they did a fantastic job overall.
 
week 3 leans:

rice + OUT
ball st - OUT
byu - ADDED TODAY (1H & GAME)
south carolina + OUT
wisc - OUT
nd + ML ADDED TODAY
iowa - OUT
uconn - OUT
ohio st +/ml PTS AND ML ADDED TODAY
fau + OUT
mtsu + OUT
sj st - ADDED TODAY
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thanks guys....card is final and posted in the first post...busy tonight, but try to have some thoughts on the other games up tomorrow morning...fuckin beanie has me stressed
 
1-0 +1.80 so far...

i have already talked in this and/or other threads about miss st, nevada, nd, ohio st...and i agree with a lot of the information from other threads on byu, so if anyone wants to address anything specifically with these games, i'd of course be happy to talk about it, but not going to do full write-ups. i'm going to concentrate on getting some quick opinions down on temple and ark st today, and might get to sjst, but i have talked about them too i think, and vk has some great info on that game as well in his thread...

Temple +6/ML +200

oh, how perceptions change quickly. a lot of my friends were all over utep in week 1 and giving me shit about laying points with a lowly team like buffalo (not referring to anyone on this site, although there were many people who disagreed with me on here as well). in TWO SHORT WEEKS, a lot of those SAME people giving me shit were waiting for the lines to come out so they could unload a lot more money than i bet on my regular plays on buffalo, this very same team, laying 5.5 and 6 points... in a CONFERENCE GAME to a team that imo is significantly better and more experienced than utep, in a game they will surely be completely focused on because of a huge revenge factor from last year. i'm sorry, as i don't say things like this often...i see no problem with you taking utep, and i see no problem with you taking buffalo this week...but i have a BIG problem if you took utep in week 1 and now you are taking buffalo...you shouldn't be doing that. additionally, yes, they handed temple their asses with basically the same teams last year. but with basically the same teams returning, temple was -3 at home. now i'm not a huge projector of lines, but i would only give about 5 pt swing when one of the homefields is temple (relax temple fans i know you're improving). that brings us to -2. add in revenge and both teams pretty much returning everybody, but temple still having a slight advantage there, and i think you have buff -1 or -1.5. i realize that you could easily come up with buff -3 or -3.5 using a formula like this, but not -6. you're getting 3-5 pts and arguably 3 key numbers of pure value from last year's meeting and the two weeks of this season. there's a lot of talk about value from getting the best of a number, and from lookaheads and revenge, etc...and i agree. i think the MOST value is there though when you have a large change in perception because of a very limited set of previous events, which we definitely have here. the same can be said for the buckeyes line, but different story.

now looking to the matchups, a lot of people have asked me what i like about this temple team, well #1 is experience. the level of cohesion on this football team is top notch because how much they return from last year. #2 is defense. a lot of boxscore anomalies have been pointed out, and they are all very good points. one thing i will say is that it's hard to measure box score stats and have them as applicable when there's weather like that, and uconn is so used to playing in the rain...actually a lot of their bigger wins last year came from rainy games. they surely seemed to be able to run the ball however they wanted though. people mentioned the missed fgs and turnovers, but temple overcame 2 turnovers plus a stupid call by golden to go for it on fourth in their own territory. temple also was able to move the ball effectively in the 1st before the rain started to pick up. sloppy game overall and hard to measure by the statsheet imo. but this defense is still probably the best defense in the MAC, second maybe to miami oh. defense is a necessity on the road, and they're going to need it against this well-oiled offense that makes few mistakes, and kicked the shit out of them last year. they will definitely be motivated by this. speaking of last year, this may sound like excuses, but i think sometimes things can snowball in a hurry. right off the bat a huge td run by starks on what i believe was the first play of the game. then a pick 6 on temple's first possession, a temple punt and another big buffalo run...all of the sudden it's 21-0 in the first quarter and temple is pretty much out of the game with their style of play. quarterback play was a remarkable difference in this game between two quarterbacks that aren't that far apart in talent. that should revert back to the mean in this game. 20 for 22 for willy with 2 tds and 13 for 23 for 2 INTS for dimichele. if it happens again obviously i deserve to lose my wager, but i definitely don't expect it. temple simply wan't able to convert on 3rd down and keep drives alive.

buff certainly won't be able to run the football like they did against utep...one of the worst rushing defenses in the history of football. there will be a rushing disparity because temple's inability to pound the rock, but parts of that game were actually competitive despite the HUGE rushing disparity. this does put a lot of pressure on dimichele, but i'm sure it's been stressed to him in practice about not making mistakes, because that is how buffalo wins games. did buff playing pitt dead even in pretty much every category surprise me? no, except for rushing, which i think there would at least be some disparity...they had an immense coaching advantage, a significant qb advantage imo, and pitt's defense is underachieving big time. overall it's tough to take ooc games, measure them, and then try to extrapolate results into a conference game. if temple doesn't cover, it will still be a close game (10 pts or so)...i'm very confident in that. if temple is able to win, it will be because of two things: stopping buffalo's big plays (defense), and dimichele having a mistake free game. the way they played last year, i think both of these were the major points of interest in practice because of the performance from last year. also, both are controllable to a better extent than some other problems that teams face. golden can do this; the coaching gap that buffalo experienced in the first two games will close a great deal in this game. i think the special teams advantage that temple has will be significant in a close defensive battle.

do i have concerns about this wager? sure, most notably the ability to run the football (or lack thereof) from temple. but the turf at buffalo should help temple make plays with their talent along the outside weather-permitting. utep was able to make plays and move the ball using this style. a second concern would be the deflating loss of what was a very important game to them last week. interesting to see how they bounce back...it will say a lot about how the season will go for them. practice and interviews seem to have been upbeat this week and positive, and golden will help these kids re-focus on the MAC.

buff is good ats at home, but i think a lot of people overlook temple's recent ats performance on the road...5-2 in their last 7 ats on the road.
 
:cheers: great call on the money line last night. Lets get cash in again tonight! GL
 
Nice call, nice result on UNC last night, Joe. Idiot that I am, I sat around waiting for +200 and the 5.5 points live on Matchbook, which of course never came about. I guess the problem with that strategy is you miss out on the cakewalk games like that one. I'm sure you enjoyed it thoroughly.

Good luck tonight on the Bulls and if you have time, I'd still like to read your thoughts on Arky St.
 
1-1 -1.50 so far this week

very deflating loss for me on s fla...could have easily hit that in so many different ways. can't believe how flat the team came out and grothe seemed really out of it sometimes like his head was somewhere else for much of the game. d ends way to fuckin agressive in the first half, terrible playcalling in the first half, a couple of situations where leavitt should have challenged, and a couple of holds that definitely should have been called kept me from what could have easily been an easy win for me. all that shit and they still won the game by a half pt less than the line i got. very frustrated, but that's how it goes...


Arkansas State

first thing that pops out is the revenge from last year...last game of the year in a game they easily could have won; outgained s miss and were at pretty much even in every category on the road. going into the fourth they were tied at 10 as 15 pt dogs. there's a lot i like about arkansas state, and there are some things that i don't like and am weary of, but i think no matter the competition (i think tamu is absolutely awful, but still tough to go in front of that crowd on opening day), it allowed them to gain some confidence in areas they are inexperienced in. i really like their qb despite a lot of mistakes in his freshman outing; think a lot of those mistakes go away and he's been extremely efficient thus far this year. one year of experience obviously huge, and he has the talent to make plays. he has cohesion with some pretty talented receivers that all returned from last year. i think he's significantly better than his counterpart. he has legs and can take off too. they have 3 legit ground threats, and they outgained s miss on the ground last year, which i definitely expect again and to a greater extent. s miss more importantly, on the other side of the ball s miss loses their entire dline, and the replacements have been putrid thus far...ull averaged over 6 ypc; aub could have ran the ball a lot more effectively and blew them out imo, but they were busy finetuning the new system. back 7 has looked good, but the dline has not. i think that will hurt too trying to get pressure on a mobile leonard. ark st was average vs the run and good vs the pass last year, but that will probably flop this year. tamu had a whopping 3.7 ypc. i can't possibly see how s miss is going to do significantly better. i know it was a stout auburn defense, but 1.4 ypc is pathetic. fletcher is very tough, but they've seen him before and they're better now...and they won't be as pre-occupied with young and the passing game. davis doesn't necessarily spread the defense out well....he has been very unimpressive and i don't see him being much of a factor. he's a fresh and the returners on offense have to adjust to him and a new system. gonna be a one trick pony on offense this year i believe in fletch.

concerns include the new oline of arkst, which haven't been a problem thus far, the new secondary-- only returned one player with 1 INT,but they've grabbed 4 already...and this will be tough to exploit with lack of qb talent, and s miss' success on the road, which isn't as applicable with a new staff.

basically a pk with the team that will run more effectively, even defenses, better more established coaching staff, and significantly better qb....

last two times these teams met, s miss was big favs and failed to cover in both matchups....now they go to ark state's place, where they're 6-1 last 7 ats.
 
sides: 5-3 +1.70
ml dogs : 2-2 +0.90
big plays: 0-1 -3.30
week 3 total: -0.70

if i can bring myself to do it, i will have a recap in my week 4 thread sometime monday evening or tuesday. it was the type of saturday that makes you wonder why you gamble. 3 losses by 7 points combined that cost me 6 units including a big play that lost by a half point. my team got embarrassed again and worse yet i had money on them. a team that has been killing me ats for the last two years got me again in mizzou. and the worst part:

SEVEN AND TWO on leans that i didn't add to the card:

rice + L
ball st - W
south carolina + W
wisc - W
iowa - L
uconn - W
fau + W
mtsu + W
sj st - W

i can handle a few bad beats, but when i make a mistake like that and hold back that many winners, it's infuriating. and what's worse is that i likely won't have a week this coming week where i see things as well, and i still came out of this week minus money. there's my little pussy rant; we'll see how it pans out....go browns
 
Happens to the best of us, Joe. That was my week last week.

I disagreed with just about every point you made in the ASU writeup, but on balance and in retrospect, I have to admit you were more right than I was. USM couldn't stop the ASU offense at all in the second half. They needed the big play on the botched ASU FG but still should have lost after that. When they punted with a minute and a half left, I thought it was over. One more big (lucky?) play with the INT, and saved my bacon. Very tough loss for you, to go along with the theme of the week.

You'll get 'em this week......
 
thanks matador; sorry i got it the write-up up so late i would have like to have some banter back and forth, especially if it went to 3...glad you didn't leave it on the table...

game was a complete toss-up from what it seems (didn't watch a wink of it)...s miss did jump on them early, and i don't understand why ark st wasn't able to move the ball in the first half. the deflected pass for a pick and the fg botch obviously huge, but their start was bigger imo. they did a decent job vs fletcher and made davis beat them just like i had hoped, only davis did beat them and outplayed leonard, which i was way off on. leonard wasn't able to make enough plays on 3rd down to keep drives alive and davis was. they did outgain them by 100 yards, out first down them, and had 1.4 more ypc on the ground...so those things i was right about. from the way the teams adjusted in the 2h, i may have been right about coaching. think i had a good pulse on what ark st has on defense. but i was way off about qb play (for the sake of this game, anyways), off about the turnovers, and didn't foresee the special teams advantage or the time of possession advantage that s miss had. while it could have went my way, certainly wasn't a bad beat as they never led the game. and more importantly, i chose that play over a lot of other ones that were much better choices

if you watched the game and could provide me some insight on why ark st couldn't move the ball in the 1h, i'd greatly appreciate it. was it just stalled drives where they were able to move the ball, or was it just s miss imposing their will and shutting down what they were trying to do?
 
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