Week 3 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
On to Week 3.

ML Dog Winners Week 3
(will go here)

Below are the Week 2 Results

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/money-line/

Link to odds for Week 2

Week 2 ML Dog Winners : 17 this week
(BOL #s)
Wake +100
Duke +105
MTSU +250
E Mich +175
SD St +131
Minn +120
Rice +105
UTSA +355 Biggest Dog Week 2
Illinoiss +185
NM St +250
Okla +250
Jorga +170
UNLV+165
South Carolina +120
South Dakota +150 (5 Dimes)
Central Michigan +13
New Hampshire +250 (5 Dimes)
 
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On first look here are some for consideration
Vandy +3 vs K State
NMSU +6 vs Troy
SDSU +8 vs Stanford
Miss St +7 vs LSU
all above are home dogs which I favor

others on lower tier but of interest
Central Mich +11 @ Syracuse Have won 2 straight as underdogs
ULL +23 @ aTm Team in duress in College Station
Texas +15 @ USC better week 2 and I have good memories of some games in So Cal
Army +30 @ tOSU not impressed with tOSU defense
USAF +26 @ Michigan more a fade of Harbaugh
SMU +18 @ TCU rivalry and SMU impressive start to season
MTSU +9 @ Minnesota but really strong game by Gophers at Oregon St so likely not a play
 
I'm sitting in a hotel and just looked at lines for first time and haven't looked over week 2 box scores yet, but here is what I think has potential:

UConn - hard to judge UConn with no week 2 game. They were a different team with Sherriffs week 1. UVA kind of sucks.
Kansas - KU lost 41 straight away games, gulp!
BYU - yeah crazy I know.
Tulsa - probably just better to play the pts then bet on a win
ULM - I honestly don't know enough about ulm, but have a bizarre desire to go against SMiss somewhere soon.
Miss St - strange games last 2 years...LSU wins by just 2 and 3 although could've been blowout wins or MSU straight up wins.
New Mex St - I had been high on Troy and this number is low...kind of think NMSt could kind of be like a Wyoming or Idaho from last year, but Troy should win this...I don't know.
Texas - another crazy one

I was waiting to be all over Mia Oh, but see they are favs not expecting that based on UC's good showing and their dominance in this series.
 
Was initially liking Duke -13 but looking closer and with Baylor changing QB have bet off that with Baylor +14
Now with Baylor having such a horrible start this situationally sets up for inflated point spread and worth ML play for me
I think Baylor has definitely fallen but still lots of good players who I think show up this week.

Have already played the following
Miss St + 7 and ML
Purdue + 7 1/2 and ML
Texas + 17 and ML
Baylor + 14 and ML

Smaller plays on
Army +31 and ML
USAF +26 and ML
ULL +24 and ML

Considering
NMSU
Central Michigan
 
I just heard Mangum is hurt and out for possibly 4 weeks. I wouldn't have touched byu before but I definitely would tread lightly now.
 
S--k. Enjoy your week off as well. Hope the weather is nice wherever you are. Safe travels
 
Due to the value I am seeing on these, I am actually playing 5 ML Dog Plays at BOL this week for 0.2 units each, so the total risk is 1.0 units across the 5 plays.

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 107 Illinois +635 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 167 SMU +825 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 154 BYU +700 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 161 Bowling Green +925 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 181 Idaho +775 for Game
 
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Do the value I am seeing on these, I am actually playing 5 ML Dog Plays at BOL this week for 0.2 units each, so the total risk is 1.0 units across the 5 plays.

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 107 Illinois +635 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 167 SMU +825 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 154 BYU +700 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 161 Bowling Green +925 for Game

Sep 13, 2017 11:45 AM Money Line
Football - 181 Idaho +775 for Game

Damn! Do some round-robin parlays with those mugs! I bet the payouts are awesome!
 
FWIW, here are my "lotto tix" for this weekend:

3, 4, 5, and 6-team round-robin parlays with the following teams and MLs:

Kentucky +205
Kent St. +460
C. Michigan +315
Tulsa +275
Wyoming +425
San Diego St. +270

Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $18,870.77


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Think I will still ride with UConn +, but lack the confidence in the ML.

Positives on the Huskies on O - I like that Shirreffs is back at #1 after coming off the bench to lead the comeback vs Holy Cross. It was just vs Holy Cross, but I watched the 2nd half of that game and the energy the O had with him and his leadership he displayed was visible compared to JC trans Pindell. They return last year's #1 RB Newsome, but rFr Hopkins emerged with a big game week 1. Losing a go-to receiver from last year and the production coming back was worrisome. It does appear that Hergy Mayala is ready for a bigger role and the new offense will give more athletes opportunities to make plays rather than last year's ball-control possession oriented O offered - there may be decent talent and depth here, we've just never had a chance to see much of it.

Negatives, other than some inconsistent Shirreffs play he has shown in the past, the OL is where I worry most on offense. It was poor last season in both rushing and sacks allowed, often injured, lose some of their most experienced players and now must be conditioned enough to play with tempo in the new offense. The OL has a couple talented players, but it hasn't translated into a good 5-man group...week 1 vs Holy Cross didn't offer of any optimism.

Positives on the D...3-man DL features 3 seniors who all have had alot of PT and production, though it is lite on size on the edges. DT Fatukasi however may be an NFL talent. LB Vontae Diggs is ready for season debut, he would've been ready for game 2 had they played it. Junior Joseph left week 1 with injury, he too is also going to be starting this week. Unfortunately Levenberry still may miss the year. But LB corp is in better shape here than it was to open the year. The new 3-3-5 D has opened up some more opportunities in the secondary, which is good and bad. Marshe' Terry may be emerging as a potential playmaker after having little impact his frosh season. Terry pushed upperclassmen for PT at safety and now has a starting spot. Vandy trans Sr Tre Bell had little impact for the Dores, but with a depth chart full of youth he brings more experience to the table than otherwise would've been on hand, his practices have looked good, but didn't look as good in game action week 1. He plays opposite CB Summers who was All Conference 2015, but regressed last year. Hopefully he can regain his former self and his next level potential. The bad part is they aren't a great unit and the secondary will be tested by Benkert and Virginia's O that will want to throw often and push the ball deep with some relative frequency.

Negatives on D is learning a new scheme and lacking some real play making ability. Fatuksai was ejected and Joseph injured early vs Holy Cross and Diggs DNP, that is probably their 3 best or 3 of the 4 best players on D who weren't on the field majority of the game. Still, Holy Cross O looked better than what the UConn D could match and that secondary may again be a severe liability.

UVA played good enough to win last year, but lost 10-13 missing a potential game tying FG in a clock expiring fire drill. UVA outgained UConn 381-277, but had some critical penalties greatly aiding UConn in the process. Now UConn's D appears to be a little more shaky than last year and the O while has potential to move the ball and score more that it did a year ago, it also is just in game 2 of the new system and game 1 vs P5 competition. I do feel better it is Sherriffs at QB than Pindell and don't trust UVA overall, especially to cover DD, but unless UConn takes a big step up in improvement from game 1 to game 2, it is hard to confidently forecast a UConn win. End of a 3 game homestand for Cavs, off a loss, vs an opponent they should've / could've beat last year, presumably further along in their coaching change over than where UConn is are just too many factors to pull a ML trigger for me.
 
Think I will be taking a longshot run at SMU ML.

I was against SMU last week with NT both ATS and ML, losing both and on TCU ATS. Even though I lost on NTex, I think I would bet that again +pts, maybe not ML. Some illtimed play calls, strange turnovers and penalties led to NTex's ultimate failure (atleast ATS), but that is what bad teams do, so that shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise to me.

What has me heading against TCU was what I saw in their game vs Arkansas. The 28-7 win is rather misleading. That game just as easily could've been 21-13 Frogs...or perhaps even a loss. Hard to say the later, but my reasoning is that Ark had to kick FGs from the 5 and 2 yard lines after long drives, unbelievably they missed both. Had they cashed both of those drives in for TDs there is no telling where that game would've went. And had they not fumbled a late KO in the 4th allowing TCU to get a 1p 13y scoreboard padding TD it would've give the appearance of quite a dominant game. Because it wasn't exactly what I'd call dominant. TCU ran alot more plays, 73 to 54, but the ypp was the same, 4.9. Game was just 7-7 end 1st qrt with Ark having a 7 to 4 ypp advantage at that point and then 14-7 hafltime. Ark's biggest problem was an abysmal 4 of 14 on 3rd down. Credit to TCU for that 3rd down D (and to their red zone D) along with TCU's pass rush played a big role.

There is a strong headwind picking SMU to rise up and unexpectedly beat Frogs in the battle for the iron skillet. TCU has won 5 straight, 9 of last 10 and 15 of the last 17. They've won the last 4 by an average of 48-14!

So why now, how now?

SMU's D is progressing. They made significant improvement 2015-2016 and that improvement may be carrying forward to this year. NT did have 493 on them last week, but 47% of those yards were gained on NTs final 5 drives when the game was 54-17. The D improvement has been seen vs TCU as well. Frogs went for 720 yards and 56 pts 2015, last year it was "just" 589 and 33 pts. In fact last year SMU trailed only 3-6 at halftime (Friday night) with yardage being just 174-195. TCU blew their doors off in the second half however.

I said last week if NT OL could protect that they had a chance to be balanced, but they couldn't. SMU sacked them 5x and had several other hurries and the score became such that NT essentially abandoned the running game. To be honest, SMU's D is going to be overmatched vs a team like TCU. They have some playmakers on D, but are going to have to excel above their heads and some of Hill's inconsistent past is going to have to play a role for Ponies to have a chance at the win. He's only thrown 2 picks this year (threw Big Xll high 13 last year), but was good vs Ark and hasn't had any 2016 moments yet (benched several times).

I remain uncertain on Hick's at QB for SMU as well, he was able to hit many big plays last week to Courtland Sutton (8-163-4TD). Hicks is going to need to have the game of his life and the ball will need to be distributed around an other receivers need to make plays to pull off an upset like this, TCU obviously will key on Sutton. There is decent skill for that to happen, it all comes down to Hicks, his ability to handle the pass rush and decision making.

It's one of those things, rivalry game with a midmajor seemingly on the rise, vs a P5 team with bigger fish to fry. Not that I think TCU will be looking ahead to Ok St next week, but this is a potential flat spot for them compared to SMU's superbowl. TCU appears to have the makings of a strong team this year, not trying to sell them short. Just trying to find a way to be on the right side of one of those unexpected shocking upsets we all enjoy. SMU could fit that role.
 
Looking at CMich this week, they were already without their TE (3rd leading rec '16), but in the KU win last week they lost Brandon Childress for the year (just 5 rec so far, one of the guys who plays alot though), but bigger news is Corey Willis is out several weeks (#1 rec '16 and #1 in rec #2 in yards '17). Mark Chapman will be the go-to-guy, but in their multi-WR sets their depth is largely young and unproven, they slid a RB into the slot. Just passing it along, the going might not be as easy this week as it was vs KU and they aren't as well off in this area as MTSU was in taking down the Cuse last week.
 
thanks for that info s-k
what are your thoughts with Purdue and MTSU
had MTSU circled then Minn 2nd half last week strong backed me off a little but it was O St
 
thanks for that info s-k
what are your thoughts with Purdue and MTSU
had MTSU circled then Minn 2nd half last week strong backed me off a little but it was O St

We think alike. When I backed off MTSU ML last week I was eyeing doing it this week, but now have cold feet. I didn't pay alot of attention to Minny, but appears they found themselves and that is going to happen as they get more comfortable with what the staff wants of them. I have to be honest before the year I thought Ore St could be a .500 team, but they have really disappointed. So I don't have a good understanding or concept of what Minnesota is right now, but was going to explore a small ATS play on MTSU.

I like Purdue but am scared. Not sure their D is really good, I mean I certainly think higher of SC on D so doubt Mizzou O struggles again unless it is turnovers and Lock's head isn't right. Huge fan of Brohm though. I was sizing Boilers up for a small ATS play.
 
thanks s-k, have both with points, liking ML on Purdue more than MTSU
have NMSU points, thinking of ML as they could be the Wyoming 2017 lol
holding back some this week as not as confident of plays as last week
 
Yeah, I'm struggling with NMSt. They also remind me of Idaho last year...Vandals had an experienced team last year with a coach that didn't have much to show for the previous handful of years and they won 4 as dogs including the bowl.

I'm just torn because I thought highly of this Troy team, then Silvers played like shit at Boise last time I saw them, partially due to OL not handling pass rush. Can't take anything from the Alabama St game other than he threw a pick-six. Troy D looked really good vs Boise. Boise missed one wide open deep throw that would've been TD if connected, but I liked what I saw out of Troy D. Liked what I saw out of NMSt this year too.

I may just have to stay away and watch for anther day. But for your sake hope it hits.
 
After watching Boise the last few games, I am giving the Troy D credit but not as much as I had after the Boise St game originally.
 
nmsu defense has also been performing well. So troy d playing well, nmsu d playing well ...i took the over. par.
 
After watching Boise the last few games, I am giving the Troy D credit but not as much as I had after the Boise St game originally.

Good point. I remember being impressed with how Troy often stuffed the rush and stopped Boise on 4th and short, now I look up the stats and after 3 games Boise is allowing 27 TFL through their 3 games, or 9 per game ranking them 118th. Boise has some offensive problems.
 
I've been trying to think of some good reasons why to ML Kansas at Ohio......and I'm not finding any, but I am probably going to take a stab anyway.

Vs teams their own size, close games are the rule for Ohio. Last year vs Akron 9-3, at CMich 20-27, vs Buff 34-10, at Toledo 31-26, at Kent 14-10, vs EMich 20-27, vs BGSU 30-24, at MiaOh 17-7....then in week 2 at Kansas 37-21 - LOL. They play tight in all but 1 MAC game last year, but get comfy win at KU, so there goes that angle.

It's a gut thing. KU is not a good team, perhaps modest improvement at best over the course of this season. Ohio is always solid.

It makes no sense, but things happen sometimes. You can make a convincing case for something and have it not work out and then you back something on feel and it wins. I'm not a handicapper really, I just like to talk, watch and bet football. So don't believe me unless you have something in you that sees it the same way. And Go Jayhawks!
 
I took a little action with points and ML in Cinci and Kansas. May look for a few more but not seeing a ton I like.
 
Looking at CMich this week, they were already without their TE (3rd leading rec '16), but in the KU win last week they lost Brandon Childress for the year (just 5 rec so far, one of the guys who plays alot though), but bigger news is Corey Willis is out several weeks (#1 rec '16 and #1 in rec #2 in yards '17). Mark Chapman will be the go-to-guy, but in their multi-WR sets their depth is largely young and unproven, they slid a RB into the slot. Just passing it along, the going might not be as easy this week as it was vs KU and they aren't as well off in this area as MTSU was in taking down the Cuse last week.
Thanks for all of these but needed some more info on this game, gracias.
 
I doubt I play much ML today. In fact for my first "call" of the day my sheet is pretty sparse, probably the result of being out of town all week and not wanting to just force a bunch of plays.

KU ML 20 to win 47
SMU ML 10 to win 104
 
Stockstill out for MTSU if anyone needs last minute reevaluation for bets not placed
 
damn, so close on Texas, still had wins with points on most plays and a few ML wins like Purdue and Vandy so another plus day
thanks s-k for just losing points on CMU and not betting ML and did bet off MTSU with your injury news
totally did not see Idaho St +32 1/2 which was biggest underdog winner
Only 3 double digit dog winners, but over seven ML 125 to 270 winners
look forward to week 4
 
Yeah, those Boilers have bought in big time to what Brohm and Holt are cooking...than and man does Mizzou suck!

SMU played about as good as they could...and it was just barely enough to get the cover. Too many missed opportunities in the first half when they were hot, settled for lots of short FGs. TCU got an easy "hailmary" right before HT and scored on D in the 4th qrt. Hicks started pretty solid and then sucked balls late in the game. Feel bad for SMU, the D gave up some big plays, but they had alot of good plays too and really gave good effort. Just not enough to beat a team the caliber of TCU. Too bad Ponies never landed a really good QB yet.

Kansas did what Kansas always does...lose on the road for the 42nd straight time, the NCAA record is within their reach soon! But I have a strong stomach for betting bad teams.

NMSt was able to stay in striking range and had realistic chance at tie or win late, but Troy was able to run out the clock.

If anyone didn't see or know how Cincy beat Miami of Ohio...man that was an all time implosion by Redhawks.
 
Another good day, two late dog winners and was on SDSU ML but not Cal and totally misread Cal / Miss points
Some real dominating performances by Miss St and Purdue.
Looks like 12 outright dog winners yesterday if you add UAB which opened at +3 but closed at -1
NMSU and Texas for a huge day, still 2 solid weeks
Look forward to more posts and info from all heading to week 4 :cheers3:
 
Yeah, those Boilers have bought in big time to what Brohm and Holt are cooking...than and man does Mizzou suck!

SMU played about as good as they could...and it was just barely enough to get the cover. Too many missed opportunities in the first half when they were hot, settled for lots of short FGs. TCU got an easy "hailmary" right before HT and scored on D in the 4th qrt. Hicks started pretty solid and then sucked balls late in the game. Feel bad for SMU, the D gave up some big plays, but they had alot of good plays too and really gave good effort. Just not enough to beat a team the caliber of TCU. Too bad Ponies never landed a really good QB yet.

Kansas did what Kansas always does...lose on the road for the 42nd straight time, the NCAA record is within their reach soon! But I have a strong stomach for betting bad teams.

NMSt was able to stay in striking range and had realistic chance at tie or win late, but Troy was able to run out the clock.

If anyone didn't see or know how Cincy beat Miami of Ohio...man that was an all time implosion by Redhawks.
I had SMU 1st Half ML for some small change and that was a kick in the gut!!!

:mad:
 
Wow that sucks. SMU first half ML was a great call though and they played good enough to earn that for 29min 50sec, hard to take solace in that however when it loses like it did.
 
Watching Idaho slowly implode in the 4th was painful as I had em at 775. At one point i thought they might actutblow my +20.5 also, so at least that worked out.
 
Been a little busy today. I will get all the #s for the day shortly and next weeks thread up this evening. Great Overall day again.
 
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