Week 3: Midweek MACtion with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD: 6-3, +2.77 units

Back again in the home stretch with only 2 weeks of MAC games left. Western in the driver's seat with one conference loss. I'll be in later to try and sort out the motivation/tie breakers as top 2 with no divisions will go to Detroit for MAC title game.


BTW, DeQuan Finn left Miami on Friday to "focus on the draft" which I guess means try and play receiver?? He can't possibly mean QB. Henry Hesson now the QB as the Redskins travel to Buffalo. He threw 3 picks against Toledo last week. It seems like trouble is afoot at the Circle K in Oxford if he's bolting.

sports.yahoo.com

Dequan Finn reportedly leaves Miami (OH), preps for NFL

The Redhawks passer exits after 11 months.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com


All comments always welcome.
 
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This week's slate of action:

Tuesday

U Mass
@ Ohio -33.5 51.5

Akron
@ BG -4.5 47.5

Western Michigan
@ NIU +6.5 38.5


Wednesday

Miami
@ Buffalo -2.5 39.5

C Michigan
@ Kent +7.5 47.5
 
Note the new QB for NIU Jalen Macon. A poor man's Terrelle Pryor he's a 6'5 long strider who looked decent running the counter for 3 TDs and was 3/4 passing for 1 TD when he started vs. U Mass. Have they found something here? NIU's offense has been piss-poor so I would think he gets the start vs Western...This number touched 7 before some people came in and took NIU to push it back to 6...
 
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Took Buffalo at open and surprised to see line move 4 points against me since then. Curious to get your thoughts on that line movement when you get a chance.
 
“Dequan’s moving on,” Martin said. “We had 11 good months with him. Dequan did some awesome things. He’s an awesome young man. We spent a lot of time together. At this point, he’s gotta move on. He’s got a shot to play at the next level. He’s gonna train to get ready to do that. We appreciate what he did for us, we wish him the best, but we will not see him the rest of the year.”
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Sad. Diva QBs think they are better than they are and leave their team in a bind because they don't want to play for team goals, they what they want.
 
carolinablue said:
Took Buffalo at open and surprised to see line move 4 points against me since then. Curious to get your thoughts on that line movement when you get a chance.
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You got me. Only big adjustment out of the weekend would be Miami going from Finn to the back-up. I can’t see people lining up to bet a career back-up with a 42 percent completion rate. Secret suspensions or something going on with the Bulls? I don’t really like Buffalo’s team this year but I don’t want to touch Miami right now…will be Bulls or nada for me
 
So we don't need to talk about how bad U Mass is...if you have seen them play even once you know the deal. The only question is how to get down on the Bobcats for this game. Ohio doesn't have a history of overally running up the score, I would expect a buttoned up 4Q if they have a big lead (ALTHOUGH see my post below about point differential). Nonetheless, that rules out the team total for me.
If you look at their MAC games, U Mass has given up 14, 21, 10, 24, 27, and 31 in the first half with opponents covering first half spreads in 5 of 6 games (Buffalo was somehow losing at half 14-10). That tells me Ohio is likely to get into the upper 20s here by half. Defensively, I think the Bobcats can stop the run which is really U Mass' best path to moving the ball. With a 1H spread of 20.5, I will take the Bobcats and lay the huge number. Will be stalking a Bangura rush over as well when I see it....

My play: Ohio -20.5 first half to win one unit
 
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The MAC championship scenarios are too tangled and complicated to list. It does look like Toledo and Central would generally speaking be in the best shape to grab the runner-up spot if they win out. The Bobcats need help. Also, the fourth tiebreaker is point differential in conference play--it comes after record vs common opponents--so there is some incentives out there for the 4-2 teams (Central, Ohio, Toledo, Buffalo, and Miami) to pour it on if they get the chance. Just FYI.
 
inZane said:
Hey Mars, any concern about the rain forecast there?
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Yes. It looks like rain but I'm seeing more of an hour by hour forecast that it is drizzle/light rain. I think it will keep everyone home more than impact the game. But 38 and drizzle isn't ideal for scoring so small concern. It could mean more touches for Bangura/Brune.
 
I could only have Akron +3 in the game against BG. The Falcons seem like they might have quit on Eddie and QB carousel has been spinning with inept play and injuries. BUT I don't like Akron away from home where they only have won 1 game and they just got worked by Kent. This is a pass for me but would only have the Zips if you made me bet it.
 
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Bangura looks to get 15+ touches tonight and has been over the 100 yard mark in five games already. U Mass gives up 4.47 per carry and on average 2 bills a game on the ground. If he busts one long run, I think he gets into triple digits here. U Mass gave up runs of 22, 23, 27, 36 last game.

My play: Bangura over 99.5 rush yards to win half unit -110
 
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I like NIU and the points tonight in what should be an ugly one in DeKalb. I think they might have found something with the Arkansas Pine Bluff QB transfer sparking the offense last week.
Western will run their QB draw offense but NIU has very good LBs and matches up OK with a ground-based attack. When they have gotten gashed it was by teams with a better passing attack then what Western rolls out there. I don’t have the time today to sit around and wait to get a 7 so I’ll bite on 6.5.

My play: NIU +6.5 to win 1 unit
 
Marsski said:
Bangura looks to get 15+ touches tonight and has been over the 100 yard mark in five games already. U Mass gives up 4.47 per carry and on average 2 bills a game on the ground. If he busts one long run, I think he gets into triple digits here. U Mass gave up runs of 22, 23, 27, 36 last game.

My play: Bangura over 99.5 rush yards to win half unit -110
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What site is dealing 99.5 ? I am seeing 112.5 You got a great # , gl on the action will be pulling for you
 
I paired bangura anytime td with over 103.5 at betonline for -104.

My only concern with this is if he doesnt get it in 1st half...he may be lightly used in 2nd if they are up big. Noting Marski's info about tiebreaker rules and point differential allowed me to dispell that notion somewhat.
 
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slim5150 said:
I paired bangura anytime td with over 103.5 at betonline for -104.

My only concern with this is if he doesnt get it in 1st half...he may be lightly used in 2nd if they are up big. Noting Marski's info about tiebreaker rules and point differential allowed me to dispell that notion somewhat.
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Nice work!
 
Marsski said:
Bangura looks to get 15+ touches tonight and has been over the 100 yard mark in five games already. U Mass gives up 4.47 per carry and on average 2 bills a game on the ground. If he busts one long run, I think he gets into triple digits here. U Mass gave up runs of 22, 23, 27, 36 last game.

My play: Bangura over 99.5 rush yards to win half unit -110
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Excellent cap
 
Tough call tonight at the University of Buffalo stadium. Will the Bulls stop turning the ball over and taking stupid penalties ?? Can Miami throw the forward pass without Finn ? ( who left the team to work on his NFL career lol) ...

Probably another ridiculous homer bet loading on my Bulls as a small dog 😆
 
YTD: 7-5, +1.07; CBB 1-0

Well, not the best night really. Looks like a few of you got down on Lehigh at least....NIU's new QB couldn't complete a pass and eventually Western got the QB draw working. Maybe a little unlucky that Ohio gave up that TD drive in the 1Q but in general they were playing with their food all night. Bangura did have a beastly night.

Leaning towards the Ovahs tonight but need to dive a little deeper before I bet anything...
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I'm thinking under/1H under.
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Probably not a bad idea ..We can only bet NY State colleges through locals here , none of my 3 locals has the proper total (38.5). It's 37.5/37.5/37 for me ...

On the flip side it was a beautiful day here , 40 and sunny ....Should be close to 32 tonight , but almost ZERO WIND (3 mph) and NO precipitation

I'm donating 2 units on my Bulls ML
 
I played the Over 39 in the Buffalo game tonight. No wind, no wintry mix.
Roberson can be a turnover machine, and Miami could get some short fields. I think it will be addition by subtraction for Miami's offense and Cole Weaver is hard for short DBs to cover. I was looking for a prop on him but my pph didn't offer one and Ohio has made illegal in the regulated market. Weaver will have at least 3 inches on anyone covering him and more on the 5'9 corner and 5'11 safety for the Bulls. I'm banking on some turnovers here but I think both QBs could cough it up multiple times.
My play: Over 39 to win 1 unit
 
I wanted the over in the Kent/Central game but the number got away from me considering it opened 46 and now is 51. Central is very much in the mix for the MAC title and that monster DL they have should be in the backfield all game causing DeShields problems. CMU should have their way on the line of scrimmage both ways.
So I stuck Central ML in a parlay with PSU who I think runs all over the Huskers on Saturday in Happy Vallley. IF you don't like that ML partner, pair them up with someone you do like Saturday....

My play: Central Michigan/Penn State ML parlay (-131) to win 1 unit
 
Marsski said:
I played the Over 39 in the Buffalo game tonight. No wind, no wintry mix.
Roberson can be a turnover machine, and Miami could get some short fields. I think it will be addition by subtraction for Miami's offense and Cole Weaver is hard for short DBs to cover. I was looking for a prop on him but my pph didn't offer one and Ohio has made illegal in the regulated market. Weaver will have at least 3 inches on anyone covering him and more on the 5'9 corner and 5'11 safety for the Bulls. I'm banking on some turnovers here but I think both QBs could cough it up multiple times.
My play: Over 39 to win 1 unit
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Wish I could bet over on Turnovers tonight ..Bulls have been a turnover machine in the last 2 games .
Like you mentioned it's a nice night weather wise here.


Best of luck brother
Sweep your slate
 
Marsski...first, tha ks for sharing that hustlebelt site. Great articles on the games. I see the miami-oh game the same. Couple of good defenses and servicable enough offenses to capitalize on what should be a few turnovers and short fields.

Best of luck on the action!
 
Not betting UN NOW. Injury report right before game doesn't look good starting guard out center questionable shuffling line all over the place this after they looked horrible the last two weeks
 
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