Bills thoughts-
2-0 Bills wagers last week, with team total & side cashing rather easily. Game went pretty much how I expected.
Touching on the Bills offense once again John Brown is proving himself worthy of a #1 wr position. Honestly I had my doubts about him but he's exceeding expectations. Beasley once again was clutch and I'd expect him to get much more than 4 targets today. Buffalo opened up pass heavy to start the season and I'd hope they do the same today to test the Cincy D- they have allowed the 2nd best passer rating this season. Allen went 11-12 155 on Brown/Beasley targets last week.
Biggest surprise to me so far is how well the oline has gelled. I expected them to be much more shaky but they are playing very well. I think Atkins & Geno always present a challenge- IMO Jets D line is better. They do have the ability to pressure and Allen has the ability to force throws. Singletary out means more Gore, who obv is much better in pass blocking situations. Buffalo loses big play ability, but the dropoff with Yeldon isn't crazy.
Defensively the Bills again looked dominant outside of the opening td drive. This week I think the d has more of a challenge than people are thinking. Mixon is a really good rb. Yes the left side of the oline is in shambles, and I think the Bills will get to Dalton, but no way Mixon puts up another dud game. I think THIS is the game where Taron Johnson out might affect that secondary. NYG did try to take advantage of the slot throwing to Fowler/Engram for 18 targets, but Cincy is more talented in the passing game. I'd expect the Bengals to look for quick hitters out of the gate. No way they want Dalton holding on to the ball. I put Tre White in the top 7 corners, but between Ross/Boyd/Eifert, I think there will be a couple big plays downfield away from him.
Bottom line to me this line is high. Home opener the crowd will be insane and the Bills SHOULD win this one, but they are lined too high. I could easily see the Bengals coming out and putting up 20+. This is the type of team Buffalo seems to struggle with. Buffalo is putting up 23 minimum. I think the Bills are drastically improved offensively and the defense is above average as usual. They have also played the Jets and the Giants so I think perception might be a little off on them.
I'll be at the game so I'll be rooting for the win, but as you see I do have a longshot wager on the Bengals ML because I think they have a much better shot at a win than the line would suggest. Best wager to me is the game over 43.5, mostly because I think the Bengals offense has the right matchups to move the ball and score. I don't forsee Buffalo getting ahead to a quick 2 score lead. If they do they'll sit on the ball, pound Gore and it'll go under. My money is on Dalton spreading the ball around with quick hitters, enough to get Mixon going. Also on the Bills offense being able to throw on Cincy. Hoping for a little shootout 27-23 type game. If I wasn't a Bills fan I'd prob be on the Bengals+6
