Week 3 Inside Scoop

bjorks

bjorks

Secretary of Fondy Fanclub
Pretty solid last week in CFL, but greed got the best of me on Wisconsin and Hawaii games along with NFL. Not a lot on the board I really like this week, but as always, have some plays and tips...

Spoke already to ND peeps about the Meeeechigan game and I fully expect Little Blue to come away with their first win.

Last week I received information that Jimmy Clausen was very uncomfortable with the playbook and was truly comfortable with less than 50% of the playbook. ND hardly ever asked Clausen to throw deep, especially in the 1st half as almost every pass was a swing or screen pass. By the 2nd half, the OL was a wreck and Clausen couldn't throw deep if he wanted to. The defense, despite a lack of a pass rush forced Anthony Morelli into some horrible throws and decisions, but they can't be relied on to produce points week in, week out.

A few things we learned about ND...
1) OL is worse then we expected. We knew ND didn't have a running game, but 26 carries for 0 yards!!! Clausen lost 25 on sacks, but still, they're running game produced 16 carries for 25 yards!

2) ND's strength is the WR's and TE, but if the OL can't protect, it doesn't matter.

3) Clausen has good touch and what looks to be a decent arm, but when you have 4 seconds or less to throw, it doesn't matter how good you are. Clausen ended up 17-32, but for only 144 yards.

4) ND's DL can't shed a block. Where was the pass rush? When you have all day to throw back there, you're going to get beat. The DL needs to step up if they're going to be effective.

Thankfully ND plays Little Blue in the not so Big House this weekend.
Michigan has been almost every bit as bad as ND, but at least they've been able to score a little bit.

Michigan has more talent in Mike Hart than any player ND has on offense. You can win running the ball with Mike Hart. You can't win running the ball 16 times for 25 yards (like ND). The fact that Chad Henne (cough...pussy...cough) is out may help Michigan. Being a true freshman there's a certain amount the Lloyd Carr will scale back on offense for Ryan Mallet. I'm anticipating a lot of Mike Hart and not a whole lot of throwing.

Jimmy Clausen in one week isn't going to all the sudden learn and feel comfortable with the playbook. If you believe he feels comfortable with less than 50% of the playbook like I do and have been told, he didn't grasp another 25% this week. ND also didn't discover a ground game or how to block.

I really don't care if Michigan's D is suspect or the fact that they're struggling on O. The move from Henne to Mallet is just the type of spark their offense could use.

I like Michigan this week because...

1) A big offensive change (Henne to Mallet)
2) Playing at the Little House
3) Michigan simply has more offensive weapons than ND
4) Michigan has more talent on both sides of the ball
5) Michigan has Mike Hart
6) ND can't run the ball
7) Clausen still doesn't feel comfortable with everything.
8) Clausen isn't asked to throw deep because either he can't or doesn't have enough time
9) Michigan DL > ND OL
10) Micigan OL > ND DL
11) Michigan WR > ND DB

I think you get the picture...

Michigan for a medium play -8.5
Mike Hart OVER whatever his rushing yards may be if I can find it
Jimmy Clausen to be benched by at some point in the game? Yes

This was the first call I've had this week so I'll be posting and updating later in the week. GL this week fellas...

:cheers:
 
GL Bjorks, took your advise on ASU last week, thanks ... couple comments on your ND analysis. The line is the root of all of their problems, I don't think people should be down on the RBs, Armando Allen looks like he's going to be awesome (when they have a line). Clausen threw a couple incomplete deep balls, so he isn't hurt or anything, like you said, he didn't have enough time to throw them. They had to throw screens because they were the only things that could neutralize the PSU Dline. I'm not sure where you're getting that the WRs are a strength for this team, they haven't gotten any touches and none of them have game experience; but overall I agree that ND doesn't cover.

I wanted to ask you though, since I know you've seen Colorado too; why the hell is FSU only laying 4 @ Colorado? They looked soo awful against ASU, their scores were set up by turnovers (one pick 6). ASU was begging them to score by giving up an INT, 2 fumbles, and 5 personal fouls in the 1st half. I know FSU has been playing like shit, but if they ever play well shouldn't it be this week coming off that embarassing win? I know it looks like a trap or whatever, but was wondering your thoughts. BOL on your plays
 
ATLHawksBandwagon said:
GL Bjorks, took your advise on ASU last week, thanks ... couple comments on your ND analysis. The line is the root of all of their problems, I don't think people should be down on the RBs, Armando Allen looks like he's going to be awesome (when they have a line). Clausen threw a couple incomplete deep balls, so he isn't hurt or anything, like you said, he didn't have enough time to throw them. They had to throw screens because they were the only things that could neutralize the PSU Dline. I'm not sure where you're getting that the WRs are a strength for this team, they haven't gotten any touches and none of them have game experience; but overall I agree that ND doesn't cover.

I wanted to ask you though, since I know you've seen Colorado too; why the hell is FSU only laying 4 @ Colorado? They looked soo awful against ASU, their scores were set up by turnovers (one pick 6). ASU was begging them to score by giving up an INT, 2 fumbles, and 5 personal fouls in the 1st half. I know FSU has been playing like shit, but if they ever play well shouldn't it be this week coming off that embarassing win? I know it looks like a trap or whatever, but was wondering your thoughts. BOL on your plays
Click to expand...

To be honst ATL, I'm not sure. Colorado gets a BIG boost with the return of starting RB Hugh Charles meaning the pressure to carry the offense won't by on Hawkins.

I'd lean towards the Noles if I trusted them to perform, which I don't. Looking at everything about this game, I still can't figure out why it's as low as it is. I capped this around 8-9, which is double what it is.

CU can't pass and the strength of the Noles on D is their secondary. If CU gets behind early too, they don't have the ability to come back and turn the game into a shootout. BUT, what are you going to get out of the Noles? The 1H or 2H team at Clemson, or even worse, the team that showed up against UAB.

Folsum field is a tough place play...In late October and Novemeber, not September. I think they'll get a good crowd there because it's Florida St, but I think the overall team speed of FSU is going to cause problems for CU.

If I trusted Bowden and the Noles I'd be all over this play, or if they showed some consistency in their first two games, but I don't and they haven't. I'd guess FSU could throw all day against the CU secondary, but DeCody I love sex has been awful and there's a rumor swirling around he may be benched and they still don't use Gregg Carr enough. I believe Dan Hawkins is a good enough coach to make this interesting, but there's too much speed for FSU.

Too many question marks for me...I'd lean towards FSU, but I just don't trust them. That means they'll probably win 52-17.

My opinion on ND's WR's and Armando Allen are coming straight from my source at ND. In practice, the WR's look great and Allen evidently hasn't always given 100% in practice and kinda has a "saving it for games" attitude. But if the WR's look good in practice, what does that say about the ND defense. I know for a fact Clausen is struggling with Weis' playbook. Weis scripts the first 20 plays of the offense each game and I found out they expanded that to 30 last week against Penn St. Part of it was they wanted to "ease" Jimmy into the game flow, but the other was they can't throw many things at him because of his knowledge, or lack there off, of the playbook right now. Each week it's getting better, but like I said, it's not like Jimmy gained 25% of the playbook this past week.
 
Terpman92 said:
Bjorks-Please tell me you like ASU-27.5 on Saturday!
Click to expand...

At first glance NO, but I don't usually share anything or put anything down until Thursday nights because that's when I get my calls from my sources after they've had final team meetings. I should know a lot more tonight, but this line seems inflated!!! I'll post more in the next 24 hours.
 
like zona st too. i think they can put up a half a hundo on this cupcake.
 
Thanks bro! I would appreciate the feedback once you get more info. I'll keep an eye out for your post. I have $500 on them and would hate to lose it if they don't pour it on and win by only 27! You can understand my concern.
 
Thanks Bjorks ... that's good to hear about the WRs in practice, the CBs are definitely good, especially Darrin Walls, I've heard he's been tearing up in practice ... I guess it's basically betting that FSU finally shows up, I'm gonna be all over it, they've got too much talent, especially compared to Colorado.
 
Terpman92 said:
Thanks bro! I would appreciate the feedback once you get more info. I'll keep an eye out for your post. I have $500 on them and would hate to lose it if they don't pour it on and win by only 27! You can understand my concern.
Click to expand...

Best of luck Terp! I'll definately be posting updates the next 48 hours. I had personally capped this game in the low to mid 20's and thought the line was inflated, which caused my hesitiation. The number I come up with could change though based on what I hear, so let's hope so!
 
ATLHawksBandwagon said:
Thanks Bjorks ... that's good to hear about the WRs in practice, the CBs are definitely good, especially Darrin Walls, I've heard he's been tearing up in practice ... I guess it's basically betting that FSU finally shows up, I'm gonna be all over it, they've got too much talent, especially compared to Colorado.
Click to expand...

I've taken that approach before on some teams and it's killed me. That's why despite the fact I can see FSU running away with this, I'm being very very careful hear. As you said, this looks like a trap.
 
Added Info

USC -9.5 Vs. Nebraska

IMO tough, tough, tough decision here. After talking with Nebraska people Thursday the only way I touch this is if the line inflates and Nebraska get's 12-14 points. I know that's not likely, but there is some value if it gets that high.

USC is made for games like these...big road games, in hostile environment, on the big stage. They've been too good for too long to be fazed by by these factors as everygame they've played the last 5 years has been the biggest game of the year for their opponents. BUT what I am worried about with SC is the fact they played a push over week one and have had a week off. SC has lost 3 regular season games the L4Y's, but 2 of them were road losses after the bye week (Oregon St and Cal). Nebraska doesn't have the O that Cal did in '03, but has as much offense if not more and a comparible defense to OSU's LY who came away with a W.

This SC team is young and IMO the defense isn't as good as it was 2 year's ago when Sam Keller last played them. Still good, the only tune up has been Idaho. There's a big gap between Idaho and Nebraska. Nebraska's OL is solid and has looked very good and I expect them to have success running the ball. However the key to the game is again Sam Keller.

A lot has happened to Sam the last 2 years, Sam was the cocky gun slinger destined for the NFL at ASU and some bad decision and bad luck has brought him back to reality a little bit. He's still cocky Sam, but not to the level he was at ASU. The question is do you get the Sam Keller who torched USC in Tempe in the 1H or the one who fell apart in the 2H that game or the hesitant one at Wake last week?

I've been told it's been another "great week" for the Nebraska O. Keller has continued to shake off some rust and is getting more in sync with the Offense each week. Keller has always had the arm to be successful, but against elite teams like SC, he's struggled when he has to play from behind against top teams.

The Nebraska people told me they are going to try to run the ball early and keep it close so Keller and the offense doesn't have to play from behind and attack a strength of the SC D, the secondary. Typical, quasi ball control and try to keep SC's O off the field. They feel they've got a great shot if it's close at the half, but I did get some hesitation when I asked what happens if you're down 24-6 at the half?

The Nebraska D is going to throw a lot at Booty to try and get pressure on him. They feel confident they can slow down the run, but don't want Booty beating them through the air. The DL for Nebraska has been pretty inconsistent this year and I got the feeling that's why they're mixing things up with schemes and looks. BUT that worries me as well. I hate the attitude "we-can't-do-anything-real-well-so-let's-do-a-few-things-OK". If they can't get pressure on Booty it could get ugly and force the O to put up points.

I think the number is right where it should be as I truly believe Nebraska could easily cover this. I'd say overall Nebraska has a 20-25% chance of winning SU, but a 40-50% chance of covering. I like the odds a little more in my favor and am staying off this like I said unless the SC money comes pouring in.

GL, hope this helps a little bit. More to come...
 
The Nebraska people told me they are going to try to run the ball early and keep it close so Keller and the offense doesn't have to play from behind and attack a strength of the SC D, the secondary. They feel they've got a great shot if it's close at the half, but I did get some hesitation when I asked what happens if you're down 24-6 at the half?
Click to expand...

Two things. That secondary of USC looked below par to their standards against Vandals.

Also, lasty year Callahan had that garbage gameplan and ran way to much. They never got creative. Sounds like more of the same. Unreal.
 
B.A.R. said:
Two things. That secondary of USC looked below par to their standards against Vandals.

Also, lasty year Callahan had that garbage gameplan and ran way to much. They never got creative. Sounds like more of the same. Unreal.
Click to expand...

Completely agree with you BAR, but I'm relaying what I was told the Nebraska people feel is a strength. They really feel like their OL can control the SC DL.
 
Didn't plan on touching either game, and you just confirmed SC/Neb...

ASU? Covering 28?

Thanks again...
 
Looking forward to reading your thoughts on the ASU game. Good luck with your picks tomorrow!
 
Minnesota Vs. Florida Atlantic +10

Consistency. Something a very young MN team has not been their first two games, with the exception of the consistently horrible pass defense. MN should not be a DD favorite against anyone, let alone on the road. I don't care if it's FAU or SW Montana St Poly Tech.

Despite being named Big 10 O player of the week, Adam Weber evidently didn't look great this week during practice as Tim Brewster cranked up the heat to try to simulate the Florida humidity (heat wasn't why he looked bad). MN is going to go through growing pains as it searches for their identity. Right now their identity is the personable and fast talking Brewster.

Weber is a better runner than I was told and the run game has averaged somewhere around 275 ypg and the passing game is average. BUT for every week Weber is a Big 10 POW, he's going to look like dirt other weeks and it'll be more because of him and his youth and experience rather than the opponent.

FAU has the defense to slow down MN's O. The question is do they have the O to attack one of the worst defenses in the country? Bowling Green was supposed to finish near the bottom of the MAC, Miami, OH was supposed to not be able to throw the ball, if you offense is struggling or your trying to create an identity, the MN D is definately who you want to play.

Against MTSU, Rusty Smith proved he could throw the ball as FAU jumped out to a 24-0 lead. Despite getting just 4 sacks, the Owl's held MTSU to just 11 yards rushing for the game and picked off Joe Craddock twice, who is a better passer than Weber. The offense definitely wasn't great against MTSU or Okie St, but against MN you don't have to be.

MN is going to continue to pound away on the ground, but each week is going to attempt to put in more elements of the spread in and increase the passing plays/looks each week, BUT they will stick to their bread and butter run game.

This game will come down to turnovers. I expect this to be a game where statistically MN may come out ahead, but could lose this SU so there's a little bit of ML value here. MN is just young enough to struggle on the road for the first time this year. I also expect the heat to come into play late in the game. It's asking a lot for a young team to go on the road for the 1st time and be a DD favorite. I always believe to win big on the road you have to have a good D and that's something MN just doesn't have.

FAU +10 for a medium play. Will hit it again if MN money pours in.
 
[QUOTEFAU +10 for a medium play. Will hit it again if MN money pours in.[/QUOTE]

I see the Doggy has opened with MN -7...changes things quite a bit, but I like my play at +10 on FAU now!!!
 
Alright the post you've all been waiting for apparently.

ASU -28 vs. San Diego State

Like a lot of games this week I've struggled with this game to be truthful and there's one major reason why. Despite ASU's gaudy defensive statistics I'm not sold that their D is Top 5. Top 20, Top 15 yes, but Top 5 is a stretch.

ASU's D is ranked 4th overall in DI football and in the Top 11 in four other major defensive categories. Every team they face from here on out and starting with SDSU is much better statistically than SJSU and CU. Add to this fact that preseason all conference pick Josh Barrett (safety) is a game time decision whether or not he'll even start. Barrett was supposed to be the anchor of the secondary, easily ASU's worst group on D. Barrett, who was a Day 1 NFL pick has been H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E. All this week Barrett practiced on 2nd team behind Jeremy Payton who looked equally as bad in the spring game.

D Coordinator Craig Bray (Former secondary coach at Minnesota by the way) is rapidly trying to put some fingers in the dyke. Bray with MN, and now with ASU has always allowed the seconary a great deal of freedom to attempt to "make plays" and the ASU secondary is a true gamblers defense. They take A LOT of risks, totally a high risk, high reward D that's been Bray's calling card the last 5 years. The ASU D is legit, but if there's a weakness it's definately the secondary and by a mile. The front 7 have allowed a mere 72 yards of rushing through two games. SJSU was only able to score 3 in the opener on an ASU fumble in Sun Devil territory. CU scored 2 TD's, but 1 was a Pick 6 and the other Carpenter fumbled the snap at their own 17.

SDSU has the capability to move the ball with Kevin O'Connell and better than average WR's Brett Swain and Chaz Schillens. However SDSU's defense is by far the worst ASU has faced so far this year. SDSU got ripped by Wazzou in the opener 45-17 and Wazzou has nowhere near the team D ASU does, nor the offense. BUT that's what worries me this game for ASU. The big bet for me tomorrow (or maybe the bigger bet) is going to be on ASU 1H. ASU has the potential to hang 50+ on this team and I'm guessing they should. At some point however they've got to be looking ahead towards Oregon St and the PAC 10 opener. Dennis Erickson has a history of having total disregard for the spread and could very well yank the 1st teamers by mid/late 3Q. Danny Sullivan is very capable as I've said in the past, but if that's the case, ASU under Sullivan will be very hard pressed to score more than 7 inthe 4Q. Also, the 2nd team D for ASU is nowhere near the level of 1st team so the backdoor is going to be wide open...or at least as wide open as Twita's ass hanging out at Fondy's on a Friday night. However I got the distinct impression the starters aren't planning on playing the full game if they're up big. Sullivan got a lot of reps this week.

I'm still taking ASU -4 TD's, but will not take it if it goes to 28.5 or higher. 28 is my limit and it's a bit of a stretch because I really feel ASU will pull the starters. My bigger bet again is ASU 1H.

ASU could and should win this game 55-13 or so, but they could also very easily win 45-17 and give up 10 in the 4Q. Neither one would surprise me to be honest. The game plan for ASU isn't changing at all, they're coming out firing and will give a porous SDSU D a steady dose of Ryan Torain.

I like'em, but don't love'em here. It could honestly go either way here and it's all because ASU is the far superior team and will most likely yank the 1st teamers by the 4Q.

My confirmed plays for tomorrow...

Meeeeechigan -8 Big
UCLA Big
ASU 1H Medium
ASU small
Florida Atlantic medium (got them at +10)
tOSU medium (have a feeling to much was put on tOSU effort vs Akron)
Hawaii small

May take a chance on USC, but haven't read the total board yet and may find some others, but I didn't like the board much this week and will most likely stick to the before mentioned plays unless I get really drunk and make some poor decisions.

BOL Saturday fellas...hope this helps.

:cheers:
 
Last edited:
I'm here now...late night of some loose booze and lots of women...or was that a lot of booze and some loose women...
 
BREAKING NEWS FOR ASU BACKERS!!!!

RB Ryan Torain is doubtful for tonight. It's 50/50 and something I just learned this morning!!! If anything this forces ASU to pass more, which could be a good thing for the 1H better's.
 
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