Week 3 in the NFL

[Tito]

7-9 (+1.31)


3-2 week 2, but hit my big tease and one of the losses was a 1* play, so I finished up nicely, units wise. So far...


Dolphins +10/OVER 41* - I may even take this the other way too, w Jax +4 and the Over. I think the Ov is the most attractive. I'm waiting on it, as maybe it dips to 47.5 and I will buy .5 point. But I would still take it if at 48. Also will be hitting a Gesecki player prop fairly big, Jax allowed 69 yards receiving to TE's in Week 1 and 129 to TE's in Week 2! Licking my chops on that one, tbh.

Mike Gesicki OVER 49.5 yards (-146)**

Mike Gesicki OVER 4 receptions (-115)**


Texans +4* - Taking this now, bc I see it dropped to 3.5 in some spots. Texans and Steelers are polar opposites in terms of schedule for the first 2 weeks. You can't have tougher opponents than Texans had w KC and Balt. Steelers have had 2 cream puffs and I was definitely disappointed in their game against Denver. I don't love their coach or their D, but this is too many points in what i think will be a close game. Also, **teams that start the season 0-2 ATS are 22-7 ATS in week 3**, the Texans fall into this category...so I got that working for me. Which is good.


Falcons -3 (-118)** - I don't like this Bears team. I don't like the coach or the qb but the Falcon offense can just pile it on and I don't think the Bears D is up to stop it. And their offense definitely won't keep up. Got a better #, than the 3.5...


Patriots -3.5 1st Half** - The Pats are tough on TE's, and there will be special focus on Waller after his performance this past week. Pats come out strong, I like the spot.

Pats ML/Colts ML (-166)** - bc they both have the easiest paths to win imo, they should win.

Titans -2.5 (-113)* - Vikes secondary has been horrible. And now they are down their two top corners. Thats crazy.

Golden Tate OVER 3.5 Receptions (-125)**

CD Lamb OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-121)**

Pats +3/Colts -2.5/Packers +13 (-130)**

Colts +.5/Cowboys OVER 43.5/Zona OVER 42.5/Chiefs OVER 41.5 (13 pt -140)**




Still looking, will add....

 

[2daBank]

Not that I disagree with the play but what don’t you like about bears coach and defense? I think Nagy being held back a ton by his qb for which we agree on stinking.

 

[Tito]

Not that I disagree with the play but what don’t you like about bears coach and defense? I think Nagy being held back a ton by his qb for which we agree on stinking.

I can't fully put my finger on it, but I just don't like them, lol. I think Nagy holds back as well, maybe its Trubisky that is the reason for it, but I just don't like how he calls games. Either way, I'm happy to only need a fg to beat that crappy O. Can't rely on Falcons D, I need Atl O to go off, which they've shown they can do. Especially after last weeks fail.

 

[2daBank]

I can't fully put my finger on it, but I just don't like them, lol. I think Nagy holds back as well, maybe its Trubisky that is the reason for it, but I just don't like how he calls games. Either way, I'm happy to only need a fg to beat that crappy O. Can't rely on Falcons D, I need Atl O to go off, which they've shown they can do. Especially after last weeks fail.

1st look I had at card my instant reaction was falcons were gonna win that game so certainly don’t hate the play.

I do like Nagy tho, I think his scripted plays are fantastic. I’m not sure it a case where he bad after script so much as his qb can’t make a accurate throw once he has to go past his 1st read! Early in games Nagy does a great job of cutting field in half for him and getting the 1st read open. I feel like there should be some really good opportunities to play off that later in the game but trubisky not capable. I could be wrong I’ve just always thought Nagy had a really creative offensive mind. His record with bears has to speak to his ability and the defense cause I damn sure don’t think trubisky is a winning qb yet they well above .500 under Nagy.

I think this a game I might pass on and look to bet live since atl d awful I fully expect bears to start strong on script as they often do. I have little doubt they could jump out to a lead and falcons can walk them down unless they totally quit.

 

[Tito]

Good points on Nagy...I'd love to see him w another, more competent qb! Someday the Bears will need to admit they fucked up on the pick and move on to someone else.

I don't blame anyone for passing on this game, maybe thats the wiser play. I hate Atl's coach and D, but I think they come back strong bc they have to or their season is in severe trouble. And I just don't have faith in Chicago's O And Mitch to keep up, maybe I'm too low on them. We will know Sunday.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

My shitty out has Gesicki over 4 at -238
And over 5 at -114

GL Tito

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Really like the Falcons play. GL

 

[Tito]

My shitty out has Gesicki over 4 at -238
And over 5 at -114

GL Tito

Ty Johhny...thats some juice! Yikes...i personally would still play the Over receptions for smaller. I think he has at least 6 tonight.

Really like the Falcons play. GL

Ty MCG...i hope I still like it after Sunday....



I got the worst possible line for the Pats 1H play, good god. I can get -3 for +101 at BM.

 

[The Farm]

Love the falcon this week. BOL

 

[B.A.R.]

Great gets on Gesicki

 

[Tito]

Ty Farm, Bar...appreciate it.

damn, was way off on Gesecki. He seemed like he wasn’t even really a part of their game plan. Which is weird after having such a huge target share previously. Hit the teaser but big loss w the props.

 

[2daBank]

Ty Farm, Bar...appreciate it.

damn, was way off on Gesecki. He seemed like he wasn’t even really a part of their game plan. Which is weird after having such a huge target share previously. Hit the teaser but big loss w the props.

I feel ya. I used him and jags rb to jump off several dfs contest. Luckily got the td and the back was great so In fine shape but certainly thought he get more looks.

 

[Tito]

Adding a couple of props I really like...I haven't been great at them so far, so hoping this turns out better.

I kind of feel like that Lamb prop is too low for a reason? Guy had 59 yds in his 1st game w no preseason. As a Giants fan, I hated that they drafted him. He should be able to feast on this Seattle secondary. May add to that one, actually.