Week 3 in the FCS

[s--k]

Friday, September 12 - fcs Schedule - Week 3

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Indiana State at 22 Indiana	6:30pm	BTN
Colgate at Syracuse	7:00pm	ACCN

Saturday, September 13

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
William & Mary at Virginia	12:00pm	ACCN
Towson at Maryland	12:00pm	Peacock
HCU at Nebraska	12:00pm	FS1
Lehigh at Duquesne	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Samford at Baylor	12:00pm	ESPN+
Saint Francis U. at CCSU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Sacred Heart at LIU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Lafayette at Georgetown	1:00pm	ESPN+
Davidson at Tennessee Tech	1:00pm	ESPN+
Morehouse vs Howard (in East Rutherford, NJ)	1:00pm	HBCU GO
Marist at Wagner	1:00pm	NEC Front Row
Butler at Hanover College	1:30pm	Team 1 Sports
St. Thomas at Northern Michigan	2:00pm	FloSports
New Hampshire at Ball State	2:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Colorado at South Dakota	2:00pm	ESPN+
Rhode Island at Holy Cross	2:00pm	ESPN+
Elon at Western Carolina	2:30pm	ESPN+
Illinois State at Eastern Illinois	3:00pm	ESPN+
San Diego at Montana State	3:00pm	ESPN+
Tuskegee at Jackson State	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Bowie State at Delaware State	3:00pm	ESPN+
North Dakota at Montana	3:00pm	Scripps/ESPN+
Northwestern State at Cincinnati	3:30pm	ESPN+
Norfolk State at Rutgers	3:30pm	BTN
Morgan State at Toledo	3:30pm	ESPN+
Furman at Campbell	3:30pm	FloSports
Youngstown State at Michigan State	3:30pm	BTN
Richmond at North Carolina	3:30pm	ACCN
UIW at UTSA	3:30pm	ESPN+
Southeast Missouri at North Dakota State	3:30pm	ABC ND/ESPN+
VMI at Bucknell	3:30pm	ESPN+
Fordham at Stony Brook	3:30pm	FloSports
Villanova at 2 Penn State	3:30pm	FS1
Utah Tech at Idaho	4:00pm	SWX/ESPN+
Lindenwood at Charleston So.	4:00pm	ESPN+
Alabama A&M at Tennessee State	4:30pm	ESPN+
Miles College at Alabama State	5:00pm	theGrio
Eastern Washington at Northern Iowa	5:00pm	ESPN+
Fayetteville State at NC Central	6:00pm	ESPN+
Monmouth at Charlotte	6:00pm	ESPN+
ETSU at West Georgia	6:00pm	ESPN+
Stonehill at Maine	6:00pm	ABC7/FloSports
Stetson at Chattanooga	6:00pm	ESPN+
Eastern Kentucky at Marshall	6:00pm	ESPN+
Bentley at Bryant	6:00pm	FloSports
Wofford at Mercer	6:00pm	ESPN+
Bethune-Cookman at SC State	6:00pm	ESPN+
Merrimack at Kennesaw State	6:00pm	ESPN+
West Liberty at Robert Morris	6:00pm	NEC Front Row
Alcorn State at Mississippi State	6:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+
Erskine at Presbyterian	7:00pm	ESPN+
MVSU at Southeastern La.	7:00pm	ESPN+
Kentucky State at Grambling State	7:00pm	SWAC TV
Lincoln (CA) at UAPB	7:00pm	SWAC TV
Hampton at North Carolina A&T	7:00pm	FloSports
Lamar at Texas Southern	7:00pm	SWAC TV
Murray State at Georgia State	7:00pm	ESPN+
New Haven at UAlbany	7:00pm	FloSports
Albany State at Florida A&M	7:00pm	SWAC TV
Northeastern State at North Alabama	7:00pm	ESPN+
Southern Illinois at UT Martin	7:00pm	ESPN+
Prairie View A&M at Rice	7:00pm	ESPN+
Drake at South Dakota State	7:00pm	ESPN+
Valparaiso at Western Illinois	7:00pm	ESPN+
Tarleton State at Central Arkansas	7:00pm	ESPN+
Weber State at McNeese	7:00pm	ESPN+
The Citadel at Gardner-Webb	7:00pm	ESPN+
Morehead State at Austin Peay	7:00pm	ESPN+
Langston at UTRGV	8:00pm	ESPN+
Abilene Christian at TCU	8:00pm	ESPN+
Sul Ross State at Stephen F. Austin	8:00pm	ESPN+
Western Oregon at Cal Poly	8:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Arizona at Southern Utah	8:30pm	ESPN+
Mercyhurst at Sacramento State	9:00pm	KMAX31/ESPN+
Southern at Fresno State	10:00pm	CBS47/MWN
Portland State at Hawaii	11:59pm	Spectrum/MWN

 

[sleepy]

Looks like we have a rare late night bail out game this week

 

[twinkie13]

What line do you make for NW St and Cinci?

 

[s--k]

What line do you make for NW St and Cinci?

I'm sorry I do not make lines. I gather other PR lines and form some opinions, which I haven't done yet. Perhaps sleepy could help us out with his number?

 

[s--k]

Massey

Team​	Standing​	Pred​	Margin​	Total​
Indiana St @ Indiana	# 49 (2-0) (2-0)	3 48	-44.5	54.5
Colgate @ Syracuse	# 93 (0-2) (1-1)	6 45	-39.5	55.5
Samford @ Baylor	# 99 (0-2) (1-1)	7 49	-41.5	57.5
Towson @ Maryland	# 29 (2-0) (2-0)	6 42	-36.5	49.5
Houston Chr @ Nebraska	# 90 (1-1) (2-0)	3 48	-45.5	51.5
William & Mary @ Virginia	# 47 (1-1) (1-1)	10 42	-32.5	52.5
Lehigh @ Duquesne	# 27 (2-0) # 77 (1-1)	28 24	-4.5	55.5
Lafayette @ Georgetown	# 55 (1-1) # 72 (2-0)	28 23	-5.5	51.5
Morehouse Howard East Rutherford NJ	(0-1) # 86 (1-1)	7 38	-31.5	48.5
Butler @ Hanover	# 87 (1-1) (0-1)	42 7	-35.5	51.5
New Hampshire @ Ball St	# 10 (2-0) (0-2)	21 28	-6.5	50.5
Elon @ W Carolina	# 35 (1-1) # 66 (0-2)	31 29	-2.5	61.5
Davidson @ Tennessee Tech	# 124 (0-2) # 19 (2-0)	14 45	-30.5	56.5
Illinois St @ E Illinois	# 16 (1-1) # 84 (1-1)	31 17	-14.5	50.5
Northwestern LA @ Cincinnati	# 116 (1-1) (1-1)	0 49	-49.5	54.5
Youngstown St @ Michigan St	# 20 (2-0) (2-0)	14 42	-28.5	54.5
Richmond @ North Carolina	# 39 (1-1) (1-1)	9 38	-29.5	50.5
Villanova @ Penn St	# 13 (1-0) (2-0)	3 45	-42.5	48.5
Norfolk St @ Rutgers	# 102 (1-1) (2-0)	3 50	-46.5	55.5
Incarnate Word @ UT San Antonio	# 24 (1-1) (0-2)	21 41	-20.5	59.5
Morgan St @ Toledo	# 97 (0-2) (1-1)	7 44	-36.5	51.5
Furman @ Campbell	# 67 (1-1) # 92 (0-2)	31 28	-2.5	55.5
Southern Univ @ Fresno St	# 115 (1-2) (2-1)	3 46	-42.5	51.5
Idaho St @ UNLV	# 57 (0-3) (3-0)	14 45	-30.5	61.5
Lindenwood @ Charleston So	# 95 (0-2) # 75 (0-2)	21 23	-2.5	46.5
E Washington @ Northern Iowa	# 42 (0-2) # 25 (1-1)	28 31	-2.5	62.5
Monmouth NJ @ Charlotte	# 17 (2-0) (0-2)	28 35	-7.5	61.5
Merrimack @ Kennesaw	# 79 (1-1) (0-2)	17 29	-12.5	46.5
E Kentucky @ Marshall	# 22 (1-1) (0-2)	14 35	-20.5	51.5
Alcorn St @ Mississippi St	# 121 (0-2) (2-0)	0 48	-47.5	51.5
Miles @ Alabama St	(0-2) # 69 (1-1)	10 34	-24.5	47.5
ETSU @ West Georgia	# 44 (1-1) # 21 (2-0)	24 27	-3.5	55.5
Stonehill @ Maine	# 123 (0-2) # 61 (0-2)	12 38	-26.5	52.5
Wofford @ Mercer	# 83 (0-2) # 59 (0-1)	12 28	-15.5	41.5
West Liberty @ Robert Morris	(0-2) # 106 (0-2)	7 43	-35.5	53.5
Stetson @ Chattanooga	# 129 (1-1) # 50 (0-2)	7 45	-37.5	54.5
Bentley @ Bryant	(0-1) # 51 (1-1)	10 36	-26.5	48.5
Bethune-Cookman @ S Carolina St	# 114 (0-2) # 46 (1-1)	17 35	-18.5	51.5
Murray St @ Georgia St	# 112 (0-2) (0-2)	14 42	-28.5	59.5
Prairie View @ Rice	# 109 (1-1) (1-1)	7 44	-36.5	49.5
Citadel @ Gardner Webb	# 54 (1-1) # 41 (1-1)	24 31	-6.5	56.5
Hampton @ NC A&T	# 94 (1-1) # 113 (0-2)	29 26	-3.5	56.5
Lincoln CA @ Ark Pine Bluff	(0-2) # 125 (0-2)	10 45	-35.5	58.5
Lamar @ TX Southern	# 40 (1-1) # 120 (0-2)	28 17	-11.5	48.5
Morehead St @ Austin Peay	# 119 (1-1) # 7 (1-1)	7 42	-34.5	50.5
Weber St @ McNeese St	# 37 (0-2) # 60 (1-1)	29 24	-4.5	55.5
MS Valley St @ SE Louisiana	# 128 (0-2) # 31 (1-1)	7 42	-34.5	52.5
S Illinois @ TN Martin	# 11 (1-1) # 28 (0-2)	28 26	-2.5	54.5
Valparaiso @ W Illinois	# 126 (1-1) # 89 (0-2)	17 34	-17.5	55.5
Erskine @ Presbyterian	(0-1) # 70 (2-0)	7 42	-34.5	51.5
Abilene Chr @ TCU	# 15 (1-1) (1-0)	7 44	-37.5	56.5
W Oregon @ Cal Poly	(1-0) # 58 (1-1)	17 34	-17.5	53.5
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah	# 14 (1-1) # 36 (1-1)	28 31	-2.5	58.5
Portland St @ Hawaii	# 81 (0-3) (2-1)	17 41	-24.5	58.5
Mercyhurst @ CS Sacramento	# 117 (1-1) # 23 (0-2)	10 42	-31.5	53.5
Albany GA @ Florida A&M	(2-0) # 105 (0-2)	21 31	-9.5	53.5
Bowie St @ Delaware St	(1-0) # 107 (1-1)	24 28	-3.5	53.5
Utah Tech @ Idaho	# 71 (0-2) # 8 (1-1)	20 38	-18.5	56.5
Fayetteville St @ NC Central	(0-2) # 63 (1-2)	7 34	-26.5	47.5
Kentucky St @ Grambling	(1-1) # 108 (1-1)	14 42	-28.5	56.5
Rhode Island @ Holy Cross	# 18 (2-0) # 33 (0-2)	21 28	-7.5	49.5
Tuskegee @ Jackson St	(2-0) # 48 (1-1)	7 40	-33.5	48.5
Marist @ Wagner	# 122 (1-1) # 118 (0-2)	20 30	-9.5	50.5
NE Oklahoma @ North Alabama	(1-1) # 64 (0-2)	14 42	-28.5	54.5
SE Missouri St @ N Dakota St	# 32 (1-1) # 2 (2-0)	13 42	-29.5	55.5
N Colorado @ South Dakota	# 82 (1-1) # 12 (0-2)	7 38	-30.5	47.5
St Francis PA @ Central Conn	# 103 (0-2) # 100 (1-1)	21 24	-3.5	47.5
Drake @ S Dakota St	# 78 (1-0) # 1 (2-0)	3 42	-38.5	47.5
Fordham @ Stony Brook	# 96 (0-2) # 85 (0-2)	26 31	-5.5	56.5
Tarleton St @ Cent Arkansas	# 4 (3-0) # 30 (1-1)	33 27	-6.5	59.5
Alabama A&M @ Tennessee St	# 91 (1-1) # 65 (1-1)	24 31	-6.5	57.5
VMI @ Bucknell	# 110 (1-1) # 80 (1-1)	20 28	-7.5	54.5
Sacred Heart @ LIU Post	# 104 (1-1) # 56 (1-1)	17 24	-7.5	45.5
Sul Ross @ SF Austin	(0-1) # 38 (0-2)	3 52	-49.5	56.5
San Diego @ Montana St	# 76 (1-1) # 3 (0-2)	7 42	-35.5	55.5
North Dakota @ Montana	# 5 (1-1) # 6 (1-0)	29 31	-1.5	62.5
St Thomas MN @ N Michigan	# 68 (1-1) (0-2)	38 17	-20.5	54.5
Langston @ UTRGV	(0-2) # 101 (2-0)	3 45	-41.5	54.5
New Haven @ SUNY Albany	# 127 (0-2) # 73 (0-2)	10 38	-28.5	50.5

 

[s--k]

Sagarin

FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _

==========================================================================================================

@ Indiana 33.96 37.07 31.80 42.80 37.74 Indiana State 1937 95% 46.32

@ Syracuse 31.22 32.97 34.25 34.38 26.84 Colgate 1617 94% 61.92

New Hampshire 1.25 0.84 0.31 4.58 13.25 @ Ball State 114 53% 40.86

@ Baylor 31.81 30.84 29.79 45.50 55.90 Samford 1683 94% 59.24

Monmouth-NJ 2.20 1.98 2.22 4.32 11.77 @ Charlotte 126 56% 54.42

@ Cincinnati 34.38 35.33 33.77 43.73 47.76 Northwestern State 1988 95% 47.66

@ Fresno State 25.09 26.02 21.78 35.53 46.34 Southern U. 1027 91% 51.66

@ Georgia State 18.05 16.95 18.23 24.43 24.23 Murray State 572 85% 57.52

@ Hawai'i 19.08 19.88 16.97 26.64 36.35 Portland State 625 86% 50.67

@ Kennesaw State 11.19 10.63 13.20 12.19 13.36 Merrimack 308 76% 41.05

@ Marshall 9.95 10.28 10.84 10.30 6.70 Eastern Kentucky 274 73% 44.88

@ Maryland 17.75 19.07 18.50 19.54 18.78 Towson 557 85% 39.64

@ Michigan State 20.51 20.42 21.27 24.97 20.53 Youngstown State 706 88% 54.27

@ Mississippi State 28.87 27.92 27.38 40.27 50.01 Alcorn State 1369 93% 49.91

@ Nebraska 37.36 37.39 39.50 46.08 50.15 Houston Christian 2367 96% 43.82

@ North Carolina 19.34 19.76 21.37 21.59 18.21 Richmond 639 86% 38.96

@ Penn State 37.03 38.94 37.45 46.62 49.56 Villanova 2324 96% 42.05

@ Rice 13.51 13.39 12.58 18.02 20.02 Prairie View A&M 382 79% 40.47

@ Rutgers 36.04 34.93 38.71 44.87 54.08 Norfolk State 2197 96% 50.29

@ TCU 30.82 29.30 34.44 38.25 50.75 Abilene Christian 1574 94% 55.03

@ UTSA 14.08 15.13 12.81 17.66 18.64 Incarnate Word 402 80% 53.10

@ Toledo 24.89 25.10 24.57 32.12 36.15 Morgan State 1011 91% 54.78

@ Virginia 24.08 24.35 22.19 32.75 40.17 William & Mary 947 90% 55.33

@ Albany-NY 13.93 12.44 12.28 22.76 29.55 New Haven 396 80% 50.70

@ Austin Peay 21.33 20.83 20.08 29.37 41.09 Morehead State 756 88% 45.96

@ Bucknell 6.90 6.36 7.18 8.21 15.20 VMI 204 67% 55.37

Furman 1.26 0.81 0.85 4.17 7.27 @ Campbell 114 53% 59.15

Tarleton State 6.31 6.93 1.36 15.65 29.67 @ Central Arkansas 193 66% 63.26

@ Central Connecticut 1.95 1.87 0.69 3.42 2.48 Saint Francis-Pa. 123 55% 43.19

@ Charleston Southern 3.17 2.93 2.82 3.68 3.34 Lindenwood 140 58% 37.89

@ Chattanooga 18.14 22.23 20.40 15.23 6.78 Stetson 576 85% 51.83

@ Duquesne 0.19 1.34 1.20 -3.65 -17.01 Lehigh 102 51% 54.27

Illinois State 9.05 8.68 7.19 16.17 21.63 @ Eastern Illinois 252 72% 44.53

@ Gardner-Webb 6.44 5.66 7.23 7.29 2.66 The Citadel 195 66% 62.63

@ Georgetown 0.25 0.47 -0.17 -0.68 2.46 Lafayette 103 51% 54.81

@ Holy Cross 6.71 7.66 5.50 8.03 5.76 Rhode Island 201 67% 41.59

@ Idaho 15.83 17.57 18.43 14.62 11.51 Utah Tech 470 82% 53.18

@ LIU Post 7.64 6.33 5.72 12.85 18.01 Sacred Heart 220 69% 40.15

@ Maine 13.94 12.62 12.71 20.38 25.23 Stonehill College 397 80% 42.26

Weber State 0.99 1.28 4.74 -3.08 -9.35 @ McNeese State 111 53% 42.92

@ Mercer 7.88 10.47 4.34 9.73 0.30 Wofford 225 69% 37.21

@ Montana 6.20 6.76 7.68 4.28 -2.26 North Dakota 191 66% 51.83

@ Montana State 25.24 26.95 26.13 28.85 25.21 San Diego 1039 91% 59.42

@ NC A&T 1.08 1.22 4.57 -3.98 -7.99 Hampton 112 53% 46.40

@ North Dakota State 25.40 24.98 22.60 37.07 48.48 SE Missouri State 1052 91% 56.68

@ Northern Iowa 5.41 4.79 4.41 8.19 11.91 Eastern Washington 176 64% 51.07

@ Sacramento State 14.65 15.23 16.04 16.10 9.63 Mercyhurst 423 81% 40.99

@ SC State 11.23 10.95 11.19 14.00 16.95 Bethune-Cookman 309 76% 41.04

@ South Dakota 16.13 16.82 21.89 12.32 -4.27 Northern Colorado 483 83% 42.12

@ South Dakota State 31.07 33.55 31.97 35.74 36.48 Drake 1601 94% 51.83

@ SE Louisiana 19.74 18.92 19.58 26.36 33.62 Miss. Valley State 661 87% 53.53

@ Southern Utah 1.91 2.11 2.10 0.81 1.93 Northern Arizona 122 55% 66.89

@ Stony Brook 3.91 3.65 3.52 5.21 5.94 Fordham 151 60% 49.98

@ Tennessee State 2.13 2.77 4.09 -2.44 -8.94 Alabama A&M 125 56% 56.39

@ Tennessee Tech 18.39 14.34 19.53 28.41 48.66 Davidson 589 85% 66.69

@ Tennessee-Martin 2.10 1.01 5.92 -1.98 -3.85 Southern Illinois 125 56% 44.91

@ Texas Southern 0.64 0.89 -0.63 0.94 -0.87 Lamar 107 52% 40.05

@ Wagner 7.21 7.13 6.68 9.02 6.30 Marist 211 68% 52.19

@ West Georgia 6.50 6.84 3.84 10.16 21.77 East Tennessee State 196 66% 59.79

Elon 2.54 1.37 -0.79 10.71 21.92 @ Western Carolina 131 57% 69.56

@ Western Illinois 7.41 11.04 8.21 3.41 -3.16 Valparaiso 215 68% 51.83

 

[s--k]

Reddit

/r/FCS Sportsbook - FCS Games

9/12: Colgate @ Syracuse -32.5 (O/U 57.5)

9/12: Indiana State @ Indiana -39.5 (O/U 55)

9/13: Abilene Christian @ TCU -40 (O/U 53.5)

9/13: Alabama A&M @ Tennessee State -3 (O/U 57)

9/13: Albany St GA -6.5 @ Florida A&M (O/U 54)

9/13: Alcorn State @ Mississippi St -46 (O/U 51.5)

9/13: Bentley @ Bryant -16 (O/U 46)

9/13: Bethune-Cookman @ South Carolina State -17.5 (O/U 48.5)

9/13: Bowie St @ Delaware State -1 (O/U 49)

9/13: Butler -24 @ Hanover (O/U 50.5)

9/13: Davidson @ Tennessee Tech -44.5 (O/U 59.5)

9/13: Drake @ South Dakota State -27 (O/U 48)

9/13: ETSU @ West Georgia -13 (O/U 56)

9/13: EKU @ Marshall -11.5 (O/U 50.5)

9/13: Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa -8.5 (O/U 52.5)

9/13: Elon -5 @ Western Carolina (O/U 62)

9/13: Erskine @ Presbyterian -36 (O/U 49.5)

9/13: Fayetteville St @ NCCU -19 (O/U 46)

9/13: Fordham @ Stony Brook -5.5 (O/U 58)

9/13: Furman -7 @ Campbell (O/U 56)

9/13: Hampton -6.5 @ North Carolina A&T (O/U 53)

9/13: HCU @ Nebraska -41 (O/U 52)

9/13: Idaho State @ UNLV -22.5 (O/U 58.5)

9/13: Illinois State -12 @ Eastern Illinois (O/U 49)

9/13: UIW @ Texas-San Antonio -19 (O/U 55)

9/13: Kentucky St @ Grambling -25.5 (O/U 60)

9/13: Lafayette @ Georgetown -2.5 (O/U 54)

9/13: Lamar -3 @ Texas Southern (O/U 46.5)

9/13: Langston @ UTRGV -45 (O/U 56)

9/13: Lehigh -4 @ Duquesne (O/U 53.5)

9/13: Lincoln CA @ UAPB -33.5 (O/U 61)

9/13: Lindenwood -0.5 @ Charleston Southern (O/U 43.5)

9/13: Marist @ Wagner -8 (O/U 52.5)

9/13: Mercyhurst @ Sacramento State -16 (O/U 46)

9/13: Merrimack @ Kennesaw State -6 (O/U 46)

9/13: Miles @ Alabama State -28 (O/U 57.5)

9/13: MVSU @ Southeastern -30 (O/U 54)

9/13: Monmouth -2 @ UNC-Charlotte (O/U 55.5)

9/13: Morehead State @ Austin Peay -29.5 (O/U 52.5)

9/13: Morehouse vs. Howard -29.5 (O/U 50)

9/13: Morgan State @ Toledo -32.5 (O/U 53.5)

9/13: Murray State @ Georgia St -18.5 (O/U 59.5)

9/13: New Hampshire -5.5 @ Ball St (O/U 44)

9/13: New Haven @ UAlbany -23 (O/U 54)

9/13: Norfolk State @ Rutgers -43.5 (O/U 55.5)

9/13: North Dakota @ Montana -5.5 (O/U 60.5)

9/13: Northeastern St OK @ North Alabama -8 (O/U 53.5)

9/13: Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah -4.5 (O/U 59.5)

9/13: Northern Colorado @ South Dakota -12 (O/U 45)

9/13: Northwestern State @ Cincinnati -47.5 (O/U 50)

9/13: Portland State @ Hawai`i -29.5 (O/U 54)

9/13: Prairie View A&M @ Rice -25 (O/U 46)

9/13: Rhode Island @ Holy Cross -7.5 (O/U 47.5)

9/13: Richmond @ North Carolina -18 (O/U 43.5)

9/13: Sacred Heart @ LIU -5.5 (O/U 46.5)

9/13: Samford @ Baylor -39.5 (O/U 58)

9/13: San Diego @ Montana State -27 (O/U 57.5)

9/13: Southeast Missouri @ North Dakota State -33 (O/U 54)

9/13: Southern Illinois -6.5 @ UT Martin (O/U 51)

9/13: Southern @ Fresno St -38 (O/U 52)

9/13: St. Francis @ CCSU -11 (O/U 50.5)

9/13: St. Thomas -18 @ Northern Michigan (O/U 57)

9/13: Stetson @ Chattanooga -25 (O/U 57.5)

9/13: Stonehill @ Maine -19 (O/U 48.5)

9/13: Sul Ross St @ Stephen F. Austin -55 (O/U 55)

9/13: Tarleton -19 @ Central Arkansas (O/U 56)

9/13: The Citadel -0.5 @ Gardner-Webb (O/U 60)

9/13: Towson @ Maryland -25.5 (O/U 45.5)

9/13: Tuskegee @ Jackson State -18.5 (O/U 47.5)

9/13: Utah Tech @ Idaho -23 (O/U 53.5)

9/13: Valparaiso @ Western Illinois -4 (O/U 51.5)

9/13: Villanova @ Penn State -37.5 (O/U 48)

9/13: VMI @ Bucknell -5 (O/U 55.5)

9/13: Weber State @ McNeese -5 (O/U 53.5)

9/13: West Liberty @ Robert Morris -24.5 (O/U 56)

9/13: Western Oregon @ Cal Poly -10.5 (O/U 51.5)

9/13: William & Mary @ Virginia -26.5 (O/U 54.5)

9/13: Wofford @ Mercer -5 (O/U 38)

9/13: Youngstown State @ Michigan St -19 (O/U 55)

 

[s--k]

S&P+

FCS vs. FCS

Alabama A&M 29.8, Tennessee State 28.6

Albany-NY 34.0, New Haven 20.4

Austin Peay 32.7, Morehead State 16.0

Bucknell 31.9, VMI 21.3

Central Connecticut 31.2, Saint Francis-PA 14.6

Chattanooga 36.1, Stetson 20.0

Elon 34.8, Western Carolina 28.6

Furman 32.0, Campbell 24.1

Gardner-Webb 29.7, The Citadel 27.0

Georgetown 28.3, Lafayette 25.3

Hampton 29.5, NC A&T 19.9

Idaho 43.1, Utah Tech 15.7

Illinois State 35.7, Eastern Illinois 16.2

Lamar 27.3, Texas Southern 17.8

Lehigh 27.7, Duquesne 21.0

Lindenwood 26.0, Charleston Southern 21.4

Long Island 22.1, Sacred Heart 18.8

Maine 33.9, Stonehill 16.2

McNeese State 30.9, Weber State 22.6

Mercer 25.8, Wofford 7.9

Montana 37.0, North Dakota 25.4

Montana State 39.8, San Diego 16.9

North Dakota State 45.2, SE Missouri State 11.7

Northern Iowa 34.4, Eastern Washington 25.3

Rhode Island 26.5, Holy Cross 19.7

Sacramento State 29.6, Mercyhurst 19.5

SC State 37.7, Bethune-Cookman 13.4

South Dakota 34.6, Northern Colorado 12.2

South Dakota State 35.3, Drake 10.5

Southeastern Louisiana 47.5, MVSU 9.8

Southern Illinois 28.8, UT Martin 26.5

Southern Utah 31.4, Northern Arizona 28.0

Stony Brook 35.2, Fordham 19.7

Tarleton State 37.8, Central Arkansas 18.2

Tennessee Tech 53.4, Davidson 4.7

Wagner 25.2, Marist 23.3

West Georgia 27.7, ETSU 22.6

Western Illinois 27.6, Valparaiso 25.8

Indiana State at Indiana​	Indiana​	40.9​	99%​	47-6​
Colgate at Syracuse​	Syracuse​	39.6​	99%​	49-10​
Houston Christian at Nebraska​	Nebraska​	49.5​	####​	50-0​
Samford at Baylor​	Baylor​	48.2​	####​	53-5​
Towson at Maryland​	Maryland​	26.9​	95%​	36-9​
William & Mary at Virginia​	Virginia​	28.3​	96%​	40-12​
New Hampshire at Ball State​	New Hampshire​	9.1​	72%​	28-19​
Incarnate Word at UTSA​	UTSA​	16.1​	84%​	37-21​
Morgan State at Toledo​	Toledo​	38.2​	99%​	45-7​
Norfolk State at Rutgers​	Rutgers​	48.9​	####​	51-2​
Northwestern State at Cincinnati​	Cincinnati​	49.6​	####​	50-0​
Richmond at North Carolina​	North Carolina​	21.4​	91%​	34-13​
Villanova at Penn State​	Penn State​	39.8​	99%​	43-3​
Youngstown State at Michigan State​	Michigan State​	19.9​	89%​	36-16​
Monmouth at Charlotte​	Monmouth​	3.6​	59%​	35-31​
Murray State at Georgia State​	Georgia State​	29.5​	97%​	47-17​
Prairie View A&M at Rice​	Rice​	27.2​	96%​	38-10​
Abilene Christian at TCU​	TCU​	38.9​	99%​	48-9​
Southern U. at Fresno State​	Fresno State​	35.8​	99%​	43-7​
Portland State at Hawaii​	Hawaii​	40.9​	99%​	47-6​

 

[sleepy]

What line do you make for NW St and Cinci?

likely around Cincy -42

 

[sleepy]

Sagarin

FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _

==========================================================================================================

@ Indiana 33.96 37.07 31.80 42.80 37.74 Indiana State 1937 95% 46.32

@ Syracuse 31.22 32.97 34.25 34.38 26.84 Colgate 1617 94% 61.92

New Hampshire 1.25 0.84 0.31 4.58 13.25 @ Ball State 114 53% 40.86

@ Baylor 31.81 30.84 29.79 45.50 55.90 Samford 1683 94% 59.24

Monmouth-NJ 2.20 1.98 2.22 4.32 11.77 @ Charlotte 126 56% 54.42

@ Cincinnati 34.38 35.33 33.77 43.73 47.76 Northwestern State 1988 95% 47.66

@ Fresno State 25.09 26.02 21.78 35.53 46.34 Southern U. 1027 91% 51.66

@ Georgia State 18.05 16.95 18.23 24.43 24.23 Murray State 572 85% 57.52

@ Hawai'i 19.08 19.88 16.97 26.64 36.35 Portland State 625 86% 50.67

@ Kennesaw State 11.19 10.63 13.20 12.19 13.36 Merrimack 308 76% 41.05

@ Marshall 9.95 10.28 10.84 10.30 6.70 Eastern Kentucky 274 73% 44.88

@ Maryland 17.75 19.07 18.50 19.54 18.78 Towson 557 85% 39.64

@ Michigan State 20.51 20.42 21.27 24.97 20.53 Youngstown State 706 88% 54.27

@ Mississippi State 28.87 27.92 27.38 40.27 50.01 Alcorn State 1369 93% 49.91

@ Nebraska 37.36 37.39 39.50 46.08 50.15 Houston Christian 2367 96% 43.82

@ North Carolina 19.34 19.76 21.37 21.59 18.21 Richmond 639 86% 38.96

@ Penn State 37.03 38.94 37.45 46.62 49.56 Villanova 2324 96% 42.05

@ Rice 13.51 13.39 12.58 18.02 20.02 Prairie View A&M 382 79% 40.47

@ Rutgers 36.04 34.93 38.71 44.87 54.08 Norfolk State 2197 96% 50.29

@ TCU 30.82 29.30 34.44 38.25 50.75 Abilene Christian 1574 94% 55.03

@ UTSA 14.08 15.13 12.81 17.66 18.64 Incarnate Word 402 80% 53.10

@ Toledo 24.89 25.10 24.57 32.12 36.15 Morgan State 1011 91% 54.78

@ Virginia 24.08 24.35 22.19 32.75 40.17 William & Mary 947 90% 55.33

@ Albany-NY 13.93 12.44 12.28 22.76 29.55 New Haven 396 80% 50.70

@ Austin Peay 21.33 20.83 20.08 29.37 41.09 Morehead State 756 88% 45.96

@ Bucknell 6.90 6.36 7.18 8.21 15.20 VMI 204 67% 55.37

Furman 1.26 0.81 0.85 4.17 7.27 @ Campbell 114 53% 59.15

Tarleton State 6.31 6.93 1.36 15.65 29.67 @ Central Arkansas 193 66% 63.26

@ Central Connecticut 1.95 1.87 0.69 3.42 2.48 Saint Francis-Pa. 123 55% 43.19

@ Charleston Southern 3.17 2.93 2.82 3.68 3.34 Lindenwood 140 58% 37.89

@ Chattanooga 18.14 22.23 20.40 15.23 6.78 Stetson 576 85% 51.83

@ Duquesne 0.19 1.34 1.20 -3.65 -17.01 Lehigh 102 51% 54.27

Illinois State 9.05 8.68 7.19 16.17 21.63 @ Eastern Illinois 252 72% 44.53

@ Gardner-Webb 6.44 5.66 7.23 7.29 2.66 The Citadel 195 66% 62.63

@ Georgetown 0.25 0.47 -0.17 -0.68 2.46 Lafayette 103 51% 54.81

@ Holy Cross 6.71 7.66 5.50 8.03 5.76 Rhode Island 201 67% 41.59

@ Idaho 15.83 17.57 18.43 14.62 11.51 Utah Tech 470 82% 53.18

@ LIU Post 7.64 6.33 5.72 12.85 18.01 Sacred Heart 220 69% 40.15

@ Maine 13.94 12.62 12.71 20.38 25.23 Stonehill College 397 80% 42.26

Weber State 0.99 1.28 4.74 -3.08 -9.35 @ McNeese State 111 53% 42.92

@ Mercer 7.88 10.47 4.34 9.73 0.30 Wofford 225 69% 37.21

@ Montana 6.20 6.76 7.68 4.28 -2.26 North Dakota 191 66% 51.83

@ Montana State 25.24 26.95 26.13 28.85 25.21 San Diego 1039 91% 59.42

@ NC A&T 1.08 1.22 4.57 -3.98 -7.99 Hampton 112 53% 46.40

@ North Dakota State 25.40 24.98 22.60 37.07 48.48 SE Missouri State 1052 91% 56.68

@ Northern Iowa 5.41 4.79 4.41 8.19 11.91 Eastern Washington 176 64% 51.07

@ Sacramento State 14.65 15.23 16.04 16.10 9.63 Mercyhurst 423 81% 40.99

@ SC State 11.23 10.95 11.19 14.00 16.95 Bethune-Cookman 309 76% 41.04

@ South Dakota 16.13 16.82 21.89 12.32 -4.27 Northern Colorado 483 83% 42.12

@ South Dakota State 31.07 33.55 31.97 35.74 36.48 Drake 1601 94% 51.83

@ SE Louisiana 19.74 18.92 19.58 26.36 33.62 Miss. Valley State 661 87% 53.53

@ Southern Utah 1.91 2.11 2.10 0.81 1.93 Northern Arizona 122 55% 66.89

@ Stony Brook 3.91 3.65 3.52 5.21 5.94 Fordham 151 60% 49.98

@ Tennessee State 2.13 2.77 4.09 -2.44 -8.94 Alabama A&M 125 56% 56.39

@ Tennessee Tech 18.39 14.34 19.53 28.41 48.66 Davidson 589 85% 66.69

@ Tennessee-Martin 2.10 1.01 5.92 -1.98 -3.85 Southern Illinois 125 56% 44.91

@ Texas Southern 0.64 0.89 -0.63 0.94 -0.87 Lamar 107 52% 40.05

@ Wagner 7.21 7.13 6.68 9.02 6.30 Marist 211 68% 52.19

@ West Georgia 6.50 6.84 3.84 10.16 21.77 East Tennessee State 196 66% 59.79

Elon 2.54 1.37 -0.79 10.71 21.92 @ Western Carolina 131 57% 69.56

@ Western Illinois 7.41 11.04 8.21 3.41 -3.16 Valparaiso 215 68% 51.83

The Moc's should be a big favorite against Stetson. Anything under 21 and I'm all in.

 

[carolinablue]

After watching UNCC in person on Saturday I was really hoping to see Monmouth getting at least 10.5, as I think they could win SU, but would love them as a DD dog. Even as bad as Charlotte has looked on offense, I will still probably take over 60 or less as Connor should be able to have a game this weekend.

 

[twinkie13]

likely around Cincy -42

Any opinion there @sleepy ?

 

[sleepy]

Any opinion there @sleepy ?

I could only take Cincy. Northwestern St is garbage.

 

[carolinablue]

I was thinking Cincy -48.5

 

[s--k]

As the season gets deeper I personally become less and less comfortable making picks in FCS-FBS games. As I only follow FCS and have no feel for any of the styles or potential or lack of momentum, let-downs, look aheads, bounce-backs or angles of the FBS teams.

FCS teams went 23-23 ATS across week 1. Week 2 saw FCS teams cover only at a 12-21 rate and while I haven't counted, it sure seemed like a very high number were big time blowouts with the favorite cashing the Over themselves. I possibly am leaving money on the table by not investigating or keeping tabs on the variables in these matchups, but it isn't of much interest to me as the season wears on and I'm not too proud to admit it is a weakness of mine once the season gets rolling.

One interesting FCS-FBS game this week to me though is New Hampshire at Ball State. Knowing nothing about Ball St other than they are on a new coach, I am surrpised to see 3 of the 4 PR outlets posted above in our thread have UNH as a favorite or winning. Only Massey has Ball State favored -6.5 at home vs them. I remember back to last year when Missouri State traveled to Ball State, Missouri State had a really nice year in 2024. Ball closed at -3 and the game was close, but Ball outgained them 435-320 (5.4-5.8) were strong offensively on the ground and completed 72% of their passes and were 63% on third down. I assume those were probably some season highs for them. By contract Missouri State's 320 ttl yards was very bad for them, the only team that held them to less was SDSU. Now, I don't know if any of the key players who contributed to that performance are still around or not. But as we see with some of these FCS-FBS games, even a pretty decent upper-mid MVFC team weren't at their best vs a MAC team that finished with a losing record.

Hard to actually favor New Hampshire vs them. Sagarin has UNH-1.25, Reddit 5.5 and S&P+ has them winning 28-19.

UNH has been blown out a few times in recent years (2024 at UCF lost by 54, 2022 at WMich lost by 37, 2021 at Pitt lost by 70, 2019 at FIU lost by 13, 2018 at Colorado lost by 31. In 2023 they were really good despite finishing just 6-5 (lost 4 games by 6pts or less and were 0-2 in OT games) - but that team gave Central Mich all they could handle and they only lost that one by 3.

Offensively, 2025 is not 2023 UNH, they are closer to the weak offensive team that finished 2024. Only avg 291.5 ypg on O (5.3ypp). Their only TD last week was a WR trick play throw. Their D has been surprsingly stingy holding NCCU and HC to just 275 (4.4) and 251 (4.3) ttl yards respectively. They shut down NCCU ground game that was strong vs Southern week 0, UNH limited them to just 3.4ypc and HC last week to just 3.6ypc. Their pass D has been good as well as getting teams off the field on 3rd down. I said surprisingly because their D was strong last year and they lost many key figures from that unit. But NCCU is an HBCU that has struggled in 2024 vs midlevel CAA competition and Holy Cross hasn't exhibited strong offense vs either opponent this year.

So I don't know. I really just wanted to talk about that game as I think about things to come. I can't imagine UNH would open as a favorite at Ball would they?

 

[carolinablue]

I am expecting Ball State around -3.5 but I’m not a line creation type guy. I see this one as similar to Kent vs Merrimack although one could argue who is the true bottom feeder in the MAC between Akron, Kent and Ball State, as Akron hasn’t scored yet and Ball State has only 1 FG this year, while Kent did show some life in the 4th against Texas Tech’s backups.

I say all that to basically say if Ball State is a dog at home vs UNH, I will be on BSU as I am not on the UNH train at all (HC was a lean all last week but personal stuff caused me to miss submitting the play) and I think BSU wins by a FG.

Good discussion as I’m looking forward to seeing where a few FCS v FBS lines open this week as there is definitely money to be made. I tend to talk myself out of playing spreads >42 because one weird play can screw up things but as last week demonstrated, once the snowball starts rolling downhill….

 

[s--k]

Unfortunate for HC last week as their kicker missed an xpt and the potential game winning 34y FG with 1:40 left. Then UHN went on their longest drive of the game, 58y, to position themselves for the actual game winning FG.

Speaking of Holy Cross, I have respect for their D - even if they have only played Northern Illinois who is limited offensively right now it appears and then UNH who's O we aren't high on, but HC D is good I will say. But that O, man. Not a fan all of what they've done to date. Seeing 3 of the 4 PRs favor HC at home by 7.5, 6.7 and 7.5 vs URI? My mouth waters at the chance to get URI as a TD or near TD dog. But then S&P has URI winning by 7, which I would think is the correct outcome and surely URI will open favored? Will acknolwege though the HC D could put them in position to win the game if it falls right. URI has not faced good QB play yet and I don't think they will here either. URI did get run on a lot vs SB (QB Zellous 83y + Dempster 167y) and Clearvoux hasn't had a big game yet but we know he can. Definitely have to play URI if dogged here, but not expecting they will be. Assume they will win, I still have some trust issues with Farrell despite everyone else loving him. He appears to be getting more consistent. Last year's game between these two was close. URI 2.5 pt home fav, led entire game until HC took lead with 1:47 then Rhody scored go-ahead TD :19 left. URI +125 ttl yards, but HC ran on them (170 - 4.7ypc).

 

[s--k]

The Monmouth at Charlotte game is another one that I see some Monmouth favored lines on the PRs. Only Massey has Charlotte favored at 7.5. While I wouldn't want to lay any points with Monmouth can definitely see them winning. They did beat FIU last year (crazy ending FIU would've actually retaken lead in final seconds if they hadn't fumbled at the 1 yard line). Monmouth off to some slow starts in each game this year, which is bad. They were able to overcome it vs Colgate and Fordham who are both pretty much rebuilding their programs.

I have only read some things that you have said Carolinablue on Charlotte as you had your antenna up due to UNC's week 2 game vs them. I take it they are not good. The Monmouth D being exposed by even a bad FBS team is the obvious concern. Colgate 541 (7.0) and 39pts (their WR Saunders caught 13-223-2TDs) and Fordham 421 (5.7) and 21 1H pts but just 7 2H. Fordham QB was sacked a lot which kept the rushing numbers down, but their RBs weren't overly effective. It appears, just like last year, the Monmouth run D is better than their pass D. They just get torched through the air.

Third straight road game for Monmouth. Robertson threw 4 INTs in the opener and another bad one 1Q last week.

 

[s--k]

The only other FCS-FBS game I for some reason am interested in is Merrimack at Kennesaw. I mean, other than Portland State - Hawaii which I'm sure I will be on in some way just because of the kick time.

Kennesaw has played some tough teams, so I'm sure they are better than what they have looked like and now they go from playing two P4 type FBS programs to a not-so-good FCS program (will stop short of calling Merrimack bad). Merrimack did have a brief 4Q lead vs Kent before Kent ret'd the KO back and retook the lead. Think Merrimack performed better than 31-6 final implies vs their Dll last week (450-193 ttl yards 7.1-3.6 - but penalties! 12-115).

I'm just assuming Kennesaw is not very strong and if they put up like a 14 pt spread, can Merrimack hang within that? It probably won't be that high (Massey has 12.5). 2023 was a weird year for Kennesaw, as it was their last in FCS. I mention that year because that was the last time they were favored I believe. And they went 0-3 straight up as a favorite that year. I assume they are improved now?

 

[s--k]

Anyone eyeing a Richmond - UNC Under number depending? Richmond O has really struggled to score. Maybe they grind a few drives and burn some clock before punting. Richmond has a good punter, they have downed 6 punts on the year inside the 20. Appears UNC O isn't the greatest? Only 20 pts on Charlotte and Richmond D is vulnerable through the air but I wouldn't expect them to be a pushover (should be considerably tougher than Heels recent FCS opponents NCCU, Campbell, FAMU).

 

[carolinablue]

The Monmouth at Charlotte game is another one that I see some Monmouth favored lines on the PRs. Only Massey has Charlotte favored at 7.5. While I wouldn't want to lay any points with Monmouth can definitely see them winning. They did beat FIU last year (crazy ending FIU would've actually retaken lead in final seconds if they hadn't fumbled at the 1 yard line). Monmouth off to some slow starts in each game this year, which is bad. They were able to overcome it vs Colgate and Fordham who are both pretty much rebuilding their programs.

I have only read some things that you have said Carolinablue on Charlotte as you had your antenna up due to UNC's week 2 game vs them. I take it they are not good. The Monmouth D being exposed by even a bad FBS team is the obvious concern. Colgate 541 (7.0) and 39pts (their WR Saunders caught 13-223-2TDs) and Fordham 421 (5.7) and 21 1H pts but just 7 2H. Fordham QB was sacked a lot which kept the rushing numbers down, but their RBs weren't overly effective. It appears, just like last year, the Monmouth run D is better than their pass D. They just get torched through the air.

Third straight road game for Monmouth. Robertson threw 4 INTs in the opener and another bad one 1Q last week.

Yeah I was there on Saturday and Charlotte’s offense is horrible, not Akron level but pretty bad. Their starter used to play for UNC but wasn’t able to cut it so he’s more at his level with UNCC but doesn’t have much to work with in terms of OL or playmakers outside of 1-2 guys. With that said, he is athletic and I would expect him to make a bunch of plays against the Monmouth D. The game is actually a sell out because it’s parents weekend, and the crowd did do a good job last week of being hyped up, but the team did them no favors and the place was pretty much all UNC fans by the start of the 4th. I hope Monmouth gets at least 7.5 as I think this will be a 35-31?type game either way.

Will probably play the over as it might open in the mid 50’s given how charlotte is averaging only 7ppg through the first two.

 

[carolinablue]

Anyone eyeing a Richmond - UNC Under number depending? Richmond O has really struggled to score. Maybe they grind a few drives and burn some clock before punting. Richmond has a good punter, they have downed 6 punts on the year inside the 20. Appears UNC O isn't the greatest? Only 20 pts on Charlotte and Richmond D is vulnerable through the air but I wouldn't expect them to be a pushover (should be considerably tougher than Heels recent FCS opponents NCCU, Campbell, FAMU).

I will be on UNC at probably 16.5 or less and maybe even up to 18 as we should be fine at home against Richmond as they have fallen off quite a bit vs the spiders of old in my view.

Our offense was pretty pedestrian vs Charlotte but after reviewing the game again, we didn’t do much in the second half except run up the middle as it appears BB was trying to find some consistency with the OL and run schemes given that UNCC posed no threat to us, just my impression.

Gio should be able to break a few and if we can find a 2nd WR who can step up, I can see this being a 35-13 type game give or take.

Understand the rationale for the under but wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up being a break out game for the offense with BB tossing in a few wrinkles into the game plan and letting Kitchens experiment a bit, which could lead to a 40+ pt performance, so my focus will be on the open as I don’t expect it to drop like the Charlotte line which ended up being an easy cash in the end at 11.5.

 

[s--k]

Looking at Lehigh at Duquesne, these early season schedules...Duq has played Pitt and lost by 52 and Lincoln(PA) and won by 41. Riddell is turning out to be not all bad, he's no Perrantes, but I don't think he has done poorly. WR Isabella is pretty great. Impressed with him in the Pitt game and he has less overall yards last week but still threw him 2 TDs. He led them last year and Riddell obviously knows to get him the ball.

Like Lehigh, but didn't face much of a passing threat from Richmond nor Sacred Heart (or any offensive threat from either really). Duquesne might be best O they will have played to date. Two of Lehigh's best defensive players have been out FS Peltekian (hasn't played yet) and DE Spatny (left Richmond game 1Q). Unsure of their status.

Lehigh has had some offensive issues - no O 1H vs Richmond, good 2H. Good 1H vs SHU, no O 2H.

That is going to be an interesting game, looks like Lehigh will be favored by a few and could be a close game. I would think the Lehigh run game could be hard for Dukes to stop. Can't really know what this Duquesne D is. I came into the year with low expectations, but a couple of their headline transfers have been plugged in. Would like if I could get Duq as a decent home dog. Probably opens low so will need to be bet up to get there. Would assume Under, if above PR totals are to be believed in the mid-50s?

 

[s--k]

Yes Richmond O has started quite a bit down from what we've become used to. Wickersham was always a better runner than passer, but now...maybe it is the new OC (remember I said it's now HC's son after old OC left for rival W&M) or maybe they are lacking capable receiving targets? Something to do with this offense is very sluggish right now and might be that way for a while. Ability to down punts is the best thing they have going for them!

 

[s--k]

I would like CCSU on a low number. Sagarin and Massey are 1.9 and 3.5. Reddit and S&P suggest DD. If it opens low will have to catch it quick I assume. I don't want to lay much with CCSU because they just don't do much on O, it's the D and creating turnovers they hang their hats on. Last week even vs just AIC, 375y (6.7) is fine and 34 pts are good, but didn't make the most of all their RZ trips and were actually bad on 3rd down (2 of 9) and that was vs American International. We aren't fans of SFU around here, but they will be tougher on D for sure. Last year CCSU had 6 FCS games where the O failed to top 300y and they failed to top 24 pts in 7. They beat SFU 27-20 last year on the road but only had a 297-248 (3.8-4.4) yard edge. Think we have all likely enjoyed playing against SFU this year and I would like it to continue here, but has to be the right number for me atleast.

 

[carolinablue]

Here are the opens I am waiting on…

Cuse
UNC
Nebraska
Baylor
Tenn tech
URI
Ball state
Rutgers
Cincy
Miss state
Monmouth
SELA
TCU
Hawaii

 

[carolinablue]

I would like CCSU on a low number. Sagarin and Massey are 1.9 and 3.5. Reddit and S&P suggest DD. If it opens low will have to catch it quick I assume. I don't want to lay much with CCSU because they just don't do much on O, it's the D and creating turnovers they hang their hats on. Last week even vs just AIC, 375y (6.7) is fine and 34 pts are good, but didn't make the most of all their RZ trips and were actually bad on 3rd down (2 of 9) and that was vs American International. We aren't fans of SFU around here, but they will be tougher on D for sure. Last year CCSU had 6 FCS games where the O failed to top 300y and they failed to top 24 pts in 7. They beat SFU 27-20 last year on the road but only had a 297-248 (3.8-4.4) yard edge. Think we have all likely enjoyed playing against SFU this year and I would like it to continue here, but has to be the right number for me atleast.

I didn’t list CCSU because I’m expecting 10.5 or more which would mean a no play for me

 

[carolinablue]

Do you remember when the opens starting hitting last week?

 

[s--k]

Also would like Long Island probably anything less than 7 hopefully. No fluke at Eastern Michigan last week. Never trailed and nearly half of EM's ttl yards came on their final 2 drives. LIU rolled up 479y (6.9) and are making the Stanzani/Greenwood dual QB system work (Stanzani the passer, Greenwood the runner). Last year early season LIU outgained Albany (lost by 6), outgained Lehigh (losty by 3), outgained URI (lost by 7). Sharks did lose bad to some heavy weights like Villanova and Duquesne, but just saying this team was close in several games. Throw in the fact they beat NEC champ CCSU. Played at SHU last year, won 28-7 as 3 pt road fav, it was 21-0 1Q. Stanzani and Greenwood were doing their thing last year (Greenwood had 140y and 2 TDs rushing vs SHU). SHU ret'd opening KO last week vs Lehigh, but otherwise could only find their way to 3 pts the rest of the game (177y). It's a pretty limited bunch, could only score 12 on Stonehill (288y) - while their D is good in spots, still Stonehill nearly beat them at the end of the game and Lehigh's O only scored 28, but did run for 286 (7.3ypc) and rolled up 423 (7.4ypp) on them.

 

[s--k]

Do you remember when the opens starting hitting last week?

It was early Wednesday evening, but if last year is any indication they could be earlier than that or later in the week.

 

[sleepy]

I would like CCSU on a low number. Sagarin and Massey are 1.9 and 3.5. Reddit and S&P suggest DD. If it opens low will have to catch it quick I assume. I don't want to lay much with CCSU because they just don't do much on O, it's the D and creating turnovers they hang their hats on. Last week even vs just AIC, 375y (6.7) is fine and 34 pts are good, but didn't make the most of all their RZ trips and were actually bad on 3rd down (2 of 9) and that was vs American International. We aren't fans of SFU around here, but they will be tougher on D for sure. Last year CCSU had 6 FCS games where the O failed to top 300y and they failed to top 24 pts in 7. They beat SFU 27-20 last year on the road but only had a 297-248 (3.8-4.4) yard edge. Think we have all likely enjoyed playing against SFU this year and I would like it to continue here, but has to be the right number for me atleast.

Who knows what the oddsmakers put up. I usually don't get the lines I think I will get on the games I want action on but there is always some lines that surprise me. Hard to think with St. Francis and how money has come in both weeks massively against them that there will be a short price on CCSU.

 

[carolinablue]

It was early Wednesday evening, but if last year is any indication they could be earlier than that or later in the week.

My wife has dinner with one of her friends Wednesday after work so I’ll be home alone between about 5-9pm so selfishly I hope they all hit during that window!

 

[s--k]

Lafayette at Georgetown is a tricky one. Books threw out a high number on GT last week, did it open 19 or something I think? Was way high and it got bet down as game approached. Wagner was ready. They led the entire 1H. GT had a couple big plays 2H to get up on them by 7. Long weather delay and Hoyas scored a late TD to make it a 31-20 final. Only 356-306 (6.1-4.0) ttl yard edge. GT had about 200 fewer ttl yards and 100 less rushing yards than they did on Davidson and they spread the RB carries around. Still a healthy 6.4ypc (was 7.1ypc on Davidson). Lautner wasn't as good (or Wagner D wasn't as bad to allow Lautner to be as good).

Lafayette was better than score showed vs Stonehill. Laf scored first 6 possessions, led 42-20 mid 4Q and going for more, when they fumbled and SH ret'd it 90y the other way for what became the 42-26 Final. 469-340 (7.8-4.9) yard edge for Laf. Ran for 319! In hindsight, the Laf D wasn't too bad at BGSU week 1 either.

They have alternated win-loss the last 4 games. Georgetown shut them out last year in Easton 17-0 with a 39:21 TOP and just a 289-236 (3.9-3.8) ttl yard edge. But it was 4 Laf INTs that were the key. Laf won at GT in their magical 2023 season, in a game that Lautner made his debut off the bench and set a school record for passing (428y), but GT lost by 10 as Laf scored late to make it not look as close as it was.

I don't know which way to go on this one. But think it could be fun.

Have to go now. I'm just running down the list by time and the next game is Tennessee Tech. I think we are all waiting for an wanting that one. Most have known from the offseason this Tenn Tech team was going to be the favorite in their league after finishing in a 4-way tie last year, but being the odd team out of the playoffs while the other 3 got bids. Good coach, roster getting stronger via the portal, D was already good. They showed what they are made of last week, albeit vs a not as good as normal UTC team, but still led 31-3, 45-10 and 45-17 final with a 513-274 (8.6-3.8) yard edge. Davidson thought playing Elon was tough last week? Tenn Tech is better. Davidson has been outscored 106-21 and outgained 1090-487 in 2 games. TTU has bye on deck so should be no look ahead to their big game vs TSU in 2 weeks.

More later hopefully

 

[s--k]

Who knows what the oddsmakers put up. I usually don't get the lines I think I will get on the games I want action on but there is always some lines that surprise me. Hard to think with St. Francis and how money has come in both weeks massively against them that there will be a short price on CCSU.

I think you are probably right, those were however FBS games and SFU was favored by 11.5 vs CCSU at home week 3 of 2024. Obviously an entire different set of PR values now, I'm just looking at the Massey, Sagarin numbers which have it low. I've only been in FCS since 2023 and I know I can tell the numbers are better than they used to be from what the offshores used to originate vs Fan Duels numbers in year 2 of them opening. Still fun. Really glad it happens midweek rather than Sunday. Cool to anticipate!

 

[sleepy]

Lamar - Robert Coleman (out)

https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/sports/lamar/article/lamar-qb-aiden-mccown-make-first-career-start-21037005.php

 

[s--k]

I could tentatively like Wagner in their home opener vs Marist if price is cheap. Marist D has lots of holes as one would expect. Marist O is heavy QB run and 50% when they throw. Wagner had a more experienced, potentially better O last year. Time will tell how Stevens does at QB (former 3* RS last year) - he had an 0-2 ratio at Georgetown last week. Might have a good RB combo and it's hard to replace WR Bonelli who transferred to Ark State, but looks like a decent group still. Think they have some anchors at OL, DL and LB and some good NEC level DBs, better than what Marist has. Not like Wagner has much experience as a favorite, haven't been favored in years, but have won some games; last 2 years combined 8-15 (all wins as dogs, two wins non-Dl teams). Not really a great feeling or great situation here on two bad teams.

I might hesitently back South Dakota. Pretty much all the offseason fears are surfacing with them. I don't know if we want to put too much in the Iowa State game, but just the Lamar game, they didn't have much of an advantage at the line of scrimmage - they lost a lot, but it isn't the same when the other top 5 type teams lose a lot in the trenches, SDSU, NDSU...USD doesn't have the pedigree and tradition, they for the first time became the team they were last year, last year. So it's not like they have all this talent they are developing and plugging in like other Dakota schools do. Lose difference makers at receiver and across the D and Lamar beats them. Turnovers mattered, but they only put up 243 ttl yards at Lamar (5.0 ypp). So could be worried about their confidence after getting shellaced in Aimes and then now losing to Lamar as a 3 score favorite. Best thing they have going for them is Northern Colorado is coming to town. Hats off to UNC for how they played last week. Led CSU for pretty much the whole game until the final minute and had the game stolen from them on a mystery replay reversal of a last second game winning TD catch. UNC on backup QB after their #1 has already been lost for the season (again), might have an upgrade though now with Gibson (was WR at LSU before being a JUCO QB). Just...UNC doesn't score. 17 on Chadron State. Maybe they overachieved in scoring 17 on CSU (just 223 ttl yards 3.6 ypp). Only 3-of-14 3rd down, only rushed for 1.9 ypc. Maybe USD's ugly start to the season gives some line value? Sagarin is 16.1, but Massey shows 30.5.

Don't think I am interested in playing Elon at Western Carolina. WCU QB Dickens has not played yet this year due to eligibility issues, they keep acting like he could be cleared and return. QB wasn't the reason why they lost to Gardner Webb in the opener when they led 35-7 only to lose 45-52! It's the D, the D is always bad at WCU. Elon has been better than I expected so far, they performed better at Duke than their 2024 team did. Blew the doors off a bad Davidson team trying to find their way. Everyone has them favored here, which play on the field, that makes sense. I just don't think I want to do that.

Illinois State is hard to trust as a favorite. They did cover opening numbers vs Morehead last week, but Morehad moved it on them, 5 of Moreheads first 6 drives all advanced into Ill St territory (had 14p 86y drive for TD). Ill St won 41-13 laregly because of 17 pts off TOs (2 short fields and a 27y fum ret TD in the final minutes). Last year Ill St was 1-5 ATS as more than a TD favorite, the one cover? Eastern Illinois....where red birds won 31-7 with a 518-192 (6.5-3.9) ttl yard edge. I would think Illinois State O should do well here again this year as Ill St O should be good (better than what they played last week) and after what Indiana St did to Eastern Ill last week (won 38-14 outgained them 412-239 (6.1-3.4). Eastern Ill is best when they can run with their new QB and Illinois State run D is the best part of their D (the DL and LBs are strongest part, DBs were a question). See that Oklahoma only ran for 103y on 32att vs Ill St!? Morehead couldn't run either, which is what you'd expect. Illinois State should be good here, just need them to play to their full potential all around.

San Diego at Montana State...tough first two games for Cats, at Oregon and host SDSU, that is about as tough as you can get. So it has been tough going for them on O. The D certainly played great last week vs SDSU. Worry about a potential flat spot here after the goldrush game failure. Even if not, historically Montana State gets up big in these games as big favorites and then cruises and plays reserves in the 2H. Examples...led Maine 38-7 HT, won 41-24. Led Mercyhurst 31-0 HT, won 52-13 (well that one still pretty good although they didn't cover the 48.5). CSU 27-0 HT, won 55-17 (baredly covered). Led Idaho 24-0 HT, won 38-7. Led PSU 35-0 HT, won 44-14. Sac State, there was no let up there 28-0, 49-7! 2023: Utah Tech 35-10, 63-20(that one was a full 4Q effort), Stetson 41-6 HT, won 57-20... so 1) depends on what the line is exactly, if it is in the 20s it is a no-brainer on MSU. If it is in the 30s, I don't know. San Diego was outgained by 102y week 1 in the 24 pt loss to Cal Poly, but then followed that up with a strong effort to beat Southern Utah. San Diego did play well at UND last year (lost 24-41), was never more than a 17 pt game. UND is not MSU. This is a maybe - maybe not.

North Dakota at Montana! This is a good one! Montana pretty much dominated them in the 1H last year, led 24-7, but UND just owned TOP 38-22 and limited Griz to 4 2H poss in which three were 3-and-out and shut them out in the 2H while UND scored 4 straight with the game winning FG 2min left 27-24! North Dakota is on a great tragedtory with their new coaching statff (retained some of old staff like the OC/QB coach). Switched QBs this year is paying dividends. They legitimately neaerly won in Manhatten Kansas, no fluke. Wa-Griz is maybe the best home field in FCS, but after playing at K State just 2 weeks ago you would think they should be prepared for it. UND's OL was known as their strength from spring/fall camp - they are down one starter in Caleb Olsen who is a captain, not sure the nature or length of his injury, but down one key piece up front. Montana has a ton of turnover on D, like I'm pretty sure every single starter. They do have some good transfers in the front 7 along with some former rotational players who now much step up and have some good reserves back in the secondary ready for starting roles. Griz OL should be good, got boost when their C Klimczak was granted a 7th year. Strong at RB led by Gillman, lost a lot at receiver, but fans say they like what/who they have as replacments (young guys + transfers). Question for them, for Hauck, is always QB. Ah Yat was in/out, up/down last year with Fife, Fife gone. They brought in USC benchwarmer, but looks like it is all Ah Yat if their week 2 (season opener) game vs Central Wash is any indication (Ah Yat threw all but 1 pass). Ah Yat has had flashes but was never good enough consistently to keep the job to himself. Pretty good game here. How UND played vs Kansas St has me believing they could hang here and there are enough questions on the Griz to make it seem they could as well. Hopefully can get some decent points here, don't think it will be 7, but maybe as high as 6?

 

[s--k]

Lamar - Robert Coleman (out)

https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/sports/lamar/article/lamar-qb-aiden-mccown-make-first-career-start-21037005.php

Need to look back, he missed one/some games last year. Pretty sure they won without him, but that backup QB who started in place of him is gone. The story is behind a paywall, it probably addresses this.

 

[sleepy]

Need to look back, he missed one/some games last year. Pretty sure they won without him, but that backup QB who started in place of him is gone. The story is behind a paywall, it probably addresses this.

They run it a ton and its not like Coleman was lighting it up this year. In the bottom five for passing efficiency.

 

[sleepy]

Use this to bypass the paywall

https://archive.ph/

 

[s--k]

ew, yeah that is some bad company. Coleman did have 0-2 ratio vs USD and I don't know his stats off hand, but were likely bad at North Texas week 1. He was never "that guy", but the leadership thing. I specifically remember carolinablue betting Lamar last year when Coleman was out and not being bothered by the fact he was out. I looked, believe it was the TxSo game, which ironically is who they have this week! I think 2025, you'd rather have Coleman with an unknown backup. I'll follow the above link to see story without the subscription. Thansk.

Edit - that was a weird link thing, but it worked, I got the story. Josh McCown's son (just saw Josh a lot on TV last night)! Kid probably has some good genes, atleast good enough for FCS football! As the story talks about their OL, I think they have built some pretty good depth for an SLC program on their OL and DL, which showed vs USD. I'd maybe be optimistic of the new QB, like you say, given the type of QB Coleman is, McCown could even provide some level of improvement.

 

[sleepy]

 

[carolinablue]

Indiana already up to 45.5

Not a huge fan of either line although wouldn’t be surprised if both cover. Will wait for the Saturday game lines and pass on these.

 

[s--k]

Is Kennesaw State any better than Indiana State?

 

[s--k]

Is Kennesaw State any better than Indiana State?

By the point spread it says they are 13.5 points better? That can't be right.

 

[carolinablue]

By the point spread it says they are 13.5 points better? That can't be right.

I don’t make my own lines but I did catch Kennesaw in week 1 because I had wake in that game. This week I would probably have Kennesaw -14.5 to -17.5 vs Merrimack and I think Indiana State is about 6 ish better than Merrimack so I would probably line Kennesaw -10.5 or so vs Indiana State so 13.5 doesn’t sound outrageous to me.

With all that said, I would not be surprised if Indiana wins by 50 but just no value in the -48.5 for me. Was hoping for less than 40 so once I saw the initial line I moved on.

 

[carolinablue]

Indiana has a huge one next Saturday at home vs top ten ranked Illinois so they might just take care of business Friday and win 41-0 or something, so for me no value with such a huge game on deck, as they may shut it down earlier than normal Friday night if they are up big at the half.

 

[s--k]

To me, and I am limited here, but I would think that Indiana State and Kennesaw are pretty comparable.

The combo at QB-RB-WR that Indiana State has in Owens - Lawrence - Rochelle would rate much better than what any lower level FCS team has, such as Merrimack and I'd venture to guess it is as good if not better than anything Kennesaw has (Odum was a sometimes ok QB last year at Wofford when not injured last year).

Bill Connelly has a ranking chart where he has Kennesaw 158th and Indiana State 167th. That is pretty close. Sagarin has Kennesaw ranked 181st and Indiana State 182nd.

I should be careful as all I have heard on Indiana is they like to run it up and win big and what they do in the 2H vs their overmatched opponents matches that rhetoric. So from that point of view alone, people bet Indiana to do what they have done. On the numbers, I think it means the Kennesaw line was low (and maybe they are overrated) or the Indiana State line is high (and maybe they are underrated)

 

[carolinablue]

Yeah the way I do things, I knew Indiana and Cuse were both going to open above what I needed to make a play so wasn’t surprised to see the 41.5 and 37.5. I figured Indiana would open 45.5 but I wouldn’t have played it unless it was closer to 37.5 due to the reasons noted above.

Doesn’t mean I don’t think they could win by 50+ as I thought the same about Minny, Nebraska and a few others in Week 2 but didn’t play either as I play based on variance/value, so very rarely play lines in that range unless it is an elite level team (was gonna play OSU -52.5 or whatever last week but got pulled away and missed it). There are a few this week that for the bill so really looking forward to some of the opens if any of them start out at 41 or less.

 

[sleepy]

Guys Indiana St. qb Owens is out

With No. 1 quarterback Elijah Owens out of action for now because of a collarbone injury, the Indiana State football team will look to Keegan Patterson to man the ship heading into the Week 3 game at Indiana University.

 

[carolinablue]

Guys Indiana St. qb Owens is out

With No. 1 quarterback Elijah Owens out of action for now because of a collarbone injury, the Indiana State football team will look to Keegan Patterson to man the ship heading into the Week 3 game at Indiana University.

That was announced before the line came out last night