TNF: Jets
I get that the Browns were very close to beating two high-profile teams. But I can’t lay chalk with a young team that is still figuring out how to win. Even if the Browns had won already, the offense lacks quality. Tyrod Taylor is throwing for 71 yards per game and 1.3 yards per attempt fewer than his opponent. Cleveland’s top running back is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. The kicker is an awful 2-for-5. The Browns lack playmakers who can move the ball in a hurry. If the Browns win, it seems highly likely that their defense will be the reason why and that the win will be by the thinnest of margins possible.
Admittedly, the Jets also lack playmakers on offense. They rely on their defense, having held Miami to 20 points and Detroit to 17 points despite mistakes made by their rookie quarterback. In a basically even game, i’ll take the points.
SNF: Patriots
Dating to 2016, the Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS after a loss. Brady is still elite. He achieved a high completion percentage and two touchdowns to zero interceptions against Jacksonville’s famed defense, despite the defense expecting him to pass while the Pats tried to come from behind. After losing, Brady tended to lead the charge and throw for over 300 yards. I also expect the defense to bounce back. It’s conceded 20 points or fewer after all five of its last regular season losses.
Detroit’s defense is still a mess. It gave up 78 points combined to the Jets and 49ers. First, Sam Darnold was 16-for-21 in his NFL debut. Then, Jimmy Garoppolo was almost as efficient, throwing for two touchdowns and zero interceptions, in a game that was 30-13 before the 49ers relaxed on defense. Admittedly, the Patriots have some offensive studs missing. But so did San Francisco and the Jets aren’t exactly known for their offensive prowess, either.
JETS: I can’t give points with a team that still hasn’t figured out how to win. The Browns’ offense has been woefully boring—average players everywhere, nobody who can make a big play.
FALCONS Saints’ defense has been unconvincing against quality competition. Atlanta’s offense came together without Freeman and shows a strong mix of run and pass. Atlanta’s highly ranked secondary, led by Alford and Trufant, will limit Brees.
49ERS: The Chiefs’ offense is prolific, no doubt, but the defense still looks like a mess without safety Eric Berry. The 49ers have enough weapons, even if Goodwin remains out, to keep it close.
DOLPHINS: Raiders travel to the East Coast and have the early time slot. Carr looked great last week, but he was notoriously inconsistent last season and faces a secondary laden with Pro Bowl-caliber ability.
VIKINGS: Buffalo is still the NFL’s punching bag. It had a player retire during a game. Its quarterback talent is extremely raw. The Vikings defense will gobble them up while Cousins and Diggs show awesome rapport.
COLTS: Wentz is back, but he’ll be rusty after missing so much time and he’s still missing Alshon Jeffery. Same as last week: I don’t need much convincing to take Andrew Luck plus the points.
PACKERS: Playing at home is actually a disadvantage for Washington, which has to witness empty seats and booing fans. The offense looked disastrous outside of Smith, so Rodgers will get plenty of time to score.
PANTHERS: Carolina has covered five of its last six at home. Cam impressed me without multiple offensive linemen against Atlanta's defense. He’ll carry them against a poor road team off a primetime rivalry win.
TITANS: The Jags were fixated on that AFC Championship game. It meant so much to them to beat New England after barely falling short in January. This is a let-down spot following an emotional win.
BRONCOS: Broncos run defense has looked solid so far based on opposing YPC. By limiting Alex Collins, it can limit Baltimore’s offense, which won’t muster enough points for a cover. Baltimore’s secondary is still depleted.
GIANTS: Houston’s offense has looked pedestrian, barely mustering any points until the opponent relaxed with a significant lead. I know New York has problems as well, but I can’t give points with Houston.
RAMS: The Chargers’ defense hasn’t looked convincing, getting torched by its only formidable opponent so far. The Rams are stacked in passing and running and its defense will limit San Diego.
BEARS: Arizona has huge problems with several new pieces on the team. It’s been outscored 58-6 in its first two games, including a 24-6 loss against lowly Washington. The Bears’ defense will dominate again.
SEAHAWKS: Seattle’s offense was dangerous once Russell Wilson started leaving the pocket. Look for more creative play-calling at home to offset poor o-line. Defense will be healthier, hopefully Baldwin, as well. Dallas’ offense still looks pedestrian.
PATRIOTS: Patriots are 5-0 ATS L5 after a loss. Detroit’s defense has conceded 78 points combined against the Jets and 49ers. It’s no match for Brady, his healthy running backs, and Gordon.
BUCCANEERS: The Steelers are 0-1-1 and show disarray amidst drama surrounding the holdout of teammate Le’Veon Bell. The Bucs’ offense, led by Fitzmagic, has been shockingly prolific, while Pitt’s defense has been porous.
I get that the Browns were very close to beating two high-profile teams. But I can’t lay chalk with a young team that is still figuring out how to win. Even if the Browns had won already, the offense lacks quality. Tyrod Taylor is throwing for 71 yards per game and 1.3 yards per attempt fewer than his opponent. Cleveland’s top running back is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. The kicker is an awful 2-for-5. The Browns lack playmakers who can move the ball in a hurry. If the Browns win, it seems highly likely that their defense will be the reason why and that the win will be by the thinnest of margins possible.
Admittedly, the Jets also lack playmakers on offense. They rely on their defense, having held Miami to 20 points and Detroit to 17 points despite mistakes made by their rookie quarterback. In a basically even game, i’ll take the points.
SNF: Patriots
Dating to 2016, the Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS after a loss. Brady is still elite. He achieved a high completion percentage and two touchdowns to zero interceptions against Jacksonville’s famed defense, despite the defense expecting him to pass while the Pats tried to come from behind. After losing, Brady tended to lead the charge and throw for over 300 yards. I also expect the defense to bounce back. It’s conceded 20 points or fewer after all five of its last regular season losses.
Detroit’s defense is still a mess. It gave up 78 points combined to the Jets and 49ers. First, Sam Darnold was 16-for-21 in his NFL debut. Then, Jimmy Garoppolo was almost as efficient, throwing for two touchdowns and zero interceptions, in a game that was 30-13 before the 49ers relaxed on defense. Admittedly, the Patriots have some offensive studs missing. But so did San Francisco and the Jets aren’t exactly known for their offensive prowess, either.
JETS: I can’t give points with a team that still hasn’t figured out how to win. The Browns’ offense has been woefully boring—average players everywhere, nobody who can make a big play.
FALCONS Saints’ defense has been unconvincing against quality competition. Atlanta’s offense came together without Freeman and shows a strong mix of run and pass. Atlanta’s highly ranked secondary, led by Alford and Trufant, will limit Brees.
49ERS: The Chiefs’ offense is prolific, no doubt, but the defense still looks like a mess without safety Eric Berry. The 49ers have enough weapons, even if Goodwin remains out, to keep it close.
DOLPHINS: Raiders travel to the East Coast and have the early time slot. Carr looked great last week, but he was notoriously inconsistent last season and faces a secondary laden with Pro Bowl-caliber ability.
VIKINGS: Buffalo is still the NFL’s punching bag. It had a player retire during a game. Its quarterback talent is extremely raw. The Vikings defense will gobble them up while Cousins and Diggs show awesome rapport.
COLTS: Wentz is back, but he’ll be rusty after missing so much time and he’s still missing Alshon Jeffery. Same as last week: I don’t need much convincing to take Andrew Luck plus the points.
PACKERS: Playing at home is actually a disadvantage for Washington, which has to witness empty seats and booing fans. The offense looked disastrous outside of Smith, so Rodgers will get plenty of time to score.
PANTHERS: Carolina has covered five of its last six at home. Cam impressed me without multiple offensive linemen against Atlanta's defense. He’ll carry them against a poor road team off a primetime rivalry win.
TITANS: The Jags were fixated on that AFC Championship game. It meant so much to them to beat New England after barely falling short in January. This is a let-down spot following an emotional win.
BRONCOS: Broncos run defense has looked solid so far based on opposing YPC. By limiting Alex Collins, it can limit Baltimore’s offense, which won’t muster enough points for a cover. Baltimore’s secondary is still depleted.
GIANTS: Houston’s offense has looked pedestrian, barely mustering any points until the opponent relaxed with a significant lead. I know New York has problems as well, but I can’t give points with Houston.
RAMS: The Chargers’ defense hasn’t looked convincing, getting torched by its only formidable opponent so far. The Rams are stacked in passing and running and its defense will limit San Diego.
BEARS: Arizona has huge problems with several new pieces on the team. It’s been outscored 58-6 in its first two games, including a 24-6 loss against lowly Washington. The Bears’ defense will dominate again.
SEAHAWKS: Seattle’s offense was dangerous once Russell Wilson started leaving the pocket. Look for more creative play-calling at home to offset poor o-line. Defense will be healthier, hopefully Baldwin, as well. Dallas’ offense still looks pedestrian.
PATRIOTS: Patriots are 5-0 ATS L5 after a loss. Detroit’s defense has conceded 78 points combined against the Jets and 49ers. It’s no match for Brady, his healthy running backs, and Gordon.
BUCCANEERS: The Steelers are 0-1-1 and show disarray amidst drama surrounding the holdout of teammate Le’Veon Bell. The Bucs’ offense, led by Fitzmagic, has been shockingly prolific, while Pitt’s defense has been porous.
Last edited:
