Week 3: Fading Public Dogs

[nbafan88]

Leans in no particular order

uconn -4.5
south Florida -14.5
nebraska -3.5
SCary -3
auburn -3.5
arkansas -31
notre dame -7.5

Will be in flight during almost all the games

will update Saturday

 

[RetroVK]

You have the numbers on those?

 

[nbafan88]

You have the numbers on those?

Its still way too early.

I use sportsinsights but you can check out this site

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

ill try to post the %s when I lock in my plays on Saturday

 

[raems]

ND interests me a lot as well. Just flat out think that QB and that Oline put up points that Sparty can't keep up with on the road.

 

[raems]

No reason not to wait though, risk of it hitting 10 is outweighed by chances it can drop to 7

 

[gps_3]

Love your thread, hate seeing that the underdogs I bet are the square ones

 

[Elbutre88]

ha, same here gps.

 

[nbafan88]

Love your thread, hate seeing that the underdogs I bet are the square ones

That's one other thing. The hardest thing to do is stay disciplined in this life of ours. Sometimes the best wager is no wager at all.

I can never put my money on a public underdog... its just an oxymoron that should not exist in the marketplace... :shake2:


But oh of course there are those that feel that betting percentages are all made up :rofl:

 

[nbafan88]

No reason not to wait though, risk of it hitting 10 is outweighed by chances it can drop to 7

agreed.... with these plays I have to wait until no less than 30 min before game time. It's rare that you get a dummy line move going against the public money being bet on the dog.

 

[nbafan88]

Updated leans for these system plays


Tennessee -27
Gtech -6.5
Uconn -4
South Florida -14
Nebraska -3
South Carolina -3
Auburn -3
Arkansas -30.5
Notre Dame -7
NW -4


Other leans


Louisville pk
Temple +8.5
App state +3.5

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

Leaning to Tennessee, if they're focused and avoid the sloppy mistakes, they can handle this good for us I think

 

[bull]

First time caller and interested in how you make your selections, i e what defines a public dog ?

A few years back I played a system fading the public favorites . Did well year one, broke even year two and was behind last year when I called it quits.
Selections were made by going to Waterline and fading every favorite that showed a % over 60.

I assume that from somewhere you have determined that most of the public is on Virginia, so your play is U Conn ? etc etc Thanks for any feedback
bull

 

[nbafan88]

View attachment 41414

just put some in in case I can't get wifi in flight


bull the percentages are from sportsinsights. I don't play every play that qualifies. I look at other things as well