Week 3 Discussion

BigMoneyHandicapping

BigMoneyHandicapping

Active Member
Posted Plays: 0-0

Off to a great start. Figure I may as well post my plays and get some thoughts from you guys. PLEASE chime in and let me know why you agree with me or why I'm a dumbass. ANY thought helps. Let's skip the "good luck" stuff and get a good discussion going.

Leans:
UCF +10 @ Missouri
Va Tech -11 vs. E. Carolina
UConn +16 vs. Boise St.
UVA +6.5 vs. Louisville
South Carolina +6 vs. Georgia
South Carolina/Georgia U60
Kentucky/Florida U51
Tennessee +21 @ Oklahoma
Wake Forest +14.5 @ Utah State
Wake Forest/Utah State U43.5
 
Don't have any problems with any of your plays

Biggest concern would be the Vols though. They don't have a few key defensive players. I don't think Worley can really test the Sooners defense and Stoops would love nothing more than a 52-10 type win over an SEC team
 
Lean BSU. UConn looked like ass against BYU, didn't see their second game. BSU better than the score appeared in that Ole Miss game. I know it's early and a lot of travel but it's BSU or nothing for me. Boise always known for their offense but they continually have over-achieving defenses, not sure how many points UConn can score.
 
Just seems like a horrible match up for UConn. BSU gonna shut down their run game and UConn doesn't have the horses to throw it around against a quality club. Boise about as good as BYU so the line is similar but the BYU line was short. Boise State just a good football team that people seem down on for no good reason other than not trusting the QB. Team was a fourth qtr away from possibly going undefeated this year .. they won't lose a conference game unless they mess up in a major way. UConn is rebuilding and for the first time in a long while they are rebuilding the defense in addition to the offense. I disagree there but admit I am higher on Boise than about anyone.

I get liking South Carolina at home getting that kind of number given their recent home history but that defense is a shell of its former self. UGA looks like they are right there with top of the SEC. How many games until S Carolina proves they aren't that good on defense? I think Clemson has a better DL than S Carolina and they couldn't contain Gurley. Good backdoor offense with S Carolina though ... I mean at that number it is fairly easy to lose outright and still cover for you.

UVA is a tail of two games .. outplayed ucla in a big way week 1 and largely got outplayed by an fcs school last week. I like UVA as a possible winner there too but won't be surprised by any outcome. BTW when a person doesn't feel like they will be surprised by any outcome, the dog is usually worth the look

good luck ... ( thoughts and a good luck for good measure )
 
clowncar said:
Just seems like a horrible match up for UConn. BSU gonna shut down their run game and UConn doesn't have the horses to throw it around against a quality club. Boise about as good as BYU so the line is similar but the BYU line was short. Boise State just a good football team that people seem down on for no good reason other than not trusting the QB. Team was a fourth qtr away from possibly going undefeated this year .. they won't lose a conference game unless they mess up in a major way. UConn is rebuilding and for the first time in a long while they are rebuilding the defense in addition to the offense. I disagree there but admit I am higher on Boise than about anyone.

I get liking South Carolina at home getting that kind of number given their recent home history but that defense is a shell of its former self. UGA looks like they are right there with top of the SEC. How many games until S Carolina proves they aren't that good on defense? I think Clemson has a better DL than S Carolina and they couldn't contain Gurley. Good backdoor offense with S Carolina though ... I mean at that number it is fairly easy to lose outright and still cover for you.

UVA is a tail of two games .. outplayed ucla in a big way week 1 and largely got outplayed by an fcs school last week. I like UVA as a possible winner there too but won't be surprised by any outcome. BTW when a person doesn't feel like they will be surprised by any outcome, the dog is usually worth the look

good luck ... ( thoughts and a good luck for good measure )
Click to expand...

Awesome, thank you.

1. I see what you're saying about UConn. I'll defer to you here.

2. Georgia is clearly the sucker play of the week. I really believe that Texas A&M is better than we give them credit for, and that game for South Carolina was an anomaly. Georgia has little production and injuries at WR. I see SCarolina stacking the box and finally slowing Gurley down.

3. Last week was obviously a let down game for UGA. Louisville is getting too much credit for beating an awful Miami team. I'll take the home dog here.
 
Schrute said:
Don't have any problems with any of your plays

Biggest concern would be the Vols though. They don't have a few key defensive players. I don't think Worley can really test the Sooners defense and Stoops would love nothing more than a 52-10 type win over an SEC team
Click to expand...

Excellent point. Didn't think about the SEC angle.
 
Add me as a warner against betting on U Conn. They are not good , were actually outplayed slightly by Stony Brook last week. I think Boise will demolish them.

I don,t like your V Tech play at all. I suspect a come back down to earthm after last week's surprising upset. The series with ECU has been tight every year just about, and ECU has the ability to score. Tough call,IMO,and I think u can find a better play. Like Idaho, for example.
 
I like your Rutgers, UCF, and UCLA plays. Haven't bet UCF yet though, because they seem to have no running game. I'm still pondering that one. I'm on Rutgers and will take UCLA if I get them at your number. I'm holding out for the best number so will bet them with my Texas man at the last minute if -7 or better.

I had V Tech last week, but don't like them this week. I don't like any team laying points the week after they win a huge game, and I especially don't like V Tech in that role.

They are one of the worst of the elite programs as a home favorite ATS, and are under .500 in that role since Beamer has been coach.

I love the program and will take V Tech any week they are getting points, and I think this is one of Beamer's best teams, but not when they are laying them. In this case, laying them against a team they have no respect for and that can score,

Georgia is the other team I hate to take as a favorite. Over the years they are under .500 ATS laying points at home AND on the road, so the numbers are on your side in the S Carolina game.

Going the other way on Oklahoma/Tennessee. That's a ton of points to lay against an SEC team, but this is the game Oklahoma has been preparing for the entire off season. If Stoops can run it up he will.
 
@Tahoe thanks for your thoughts. The spot that VaTech is in definitely concerns me.

I think I've been talked off of backing Tennessee. The only real reasons were 1. Oklahoma is probably overrated after the Alabama bowl game, and 2. I like to be a contrarian and it seems that the entire world is on OU. I may revisit it if somehow I see a +24.
 
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