Week 3 Discussion Thread

Started earlier this week to shake up my fortunes a bit:

I will be on the Jets below 7
I will be on the Broncos at 7 or higher
I will be on Vegas up to 6.5
I will be on Dallas to let me down ML
I will be on the Rams on principle at 7.5

Lean Colts, Eagles, Commanders
 
KJ said:
Interesting stat from VSiN email this morning

Teams that start out 0-2 SU are 26-25 SU, but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
Click to expand...
Very interesting stat.

This would mean: Titans (vs. Packers), Giants (at Browns), Colts (vs. Bears), Panthers (at Raiders), Ravens (at Cowboys), Rams (vs. 49ers), Bengals (vs. Commanders)
 
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VirginiaCavs said:
Very interesting stat.

This would mean: Titans (vs. Packers), Colts (vs. Bears), Panthers (at Raiders), Ravens (at Cowboys), Rams (vs. 49ers), Bengals (vs. Commanders)
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Ha more from that blurb, legit question about the Pans. Bad kitty.

There’s a tidal wave of negativity that gets associated with the winless teams after two weeks, and while they remain typically bad when matched against undefeated teams, they do perform quite well against the middle-of-the-road opponents. In most cases, the 1-1 team has shown early signs of inconsistency, and I don’t know of any bettors that are actively looking to bet teams like that.

There are seven 0-2 teams facing 1-1 teams this week.

Michael Lombardi, co-host of The VSiN Morning Line (7-10 a.m. ET), doesn’t hold back in his critique of the Panthers, one of those 0-2 teams facing a 1-1 team (Raiders):

We know the Carolina Panthers are bad. We just don’t know how bad.
 
Everywhere I look I see people on the Ravens with the sole reasoning so far being no way they go 0-3. Stanley hasn't practiced I would want him in to consider them.

Boys are banged up too CeeDee Lamb hasn't practiced along with Diggs.

Both teams played zero D and the total comes out at 48.5? Looks like oddsmakers expect an under to me but IDK if I can stomach it.
 
I'm not a huge fan of backing bad teams as faves but I think the Titans get it done at home. They put up 17 pts vs 2 good defenses in Chi & NYJ and really should have scored more. Titans run D way better than Indy- I expect them to key in on Jacobs and make Willis beat them. Levis turnovers keeping me from locking it in.
 
I'll have more thoughts on the Bills but I am very leery of them ats this week.

Defense has over performed despite injuries but here is a game that Bernard/Taron could be sorely missed. Looking at the match up I think Jax has a couple advantages offensively.
I said it last week that Rasul & Benford are better than advertised & now Ingram is looking like a steal in the draft. That being said Brian Thomas & Kirk with Gabe as a third to me is a bigger test for the secondary.

Bills d has been successful largely because the Dline has been getting home a ton. Oliver played a near flawless game last week and Von miller looks like he's back. If they can get to Trevor early it'll be a long game but I do think Jax could get the ground game going to counter the pass rush.

The Bills will likely employ the same defense of bend but don't break but Gabe is going to have the size advantage over the third cb covering him and Kirk might be a matchup problem for Benford (I'd expect Rasul on BTjr). Gabe can block and no LB for Buf can match up with Engram. So staying in cover 2 is going to give Jax a huge advantage in the run game. If buffalo goes nickel they might be too small= broken tackles are going to turn into big gains. If they don't I doubt they have the speed at LB to keep up in coverage.

One MAJOR concern about backing the Bills over a fg favorite this season is the special teams. Bass went from very consistent to a crap shoot about halfway through last season. The single biggest negative takeaway from the Dolphins win was that horrific fg attempt by Bass. Zero confidence in him being able to nail a big kick and the team doesn't either- they worked out a couple kickers this week.

The way games are being played so far this season I think there has to be a bit more value placed on good kickers. I am not laying over 3 points with a mid to bad kicker, especially with a public fave.
 
another note on Buffalo to me a play on them is buying high on buf/selling low on Jax which is sending off alarm bells for me. With a line under 6.5/7 for the home team i feel like linesmakers are feeling fine about heavy Bills action in this spot.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I'll have more thoughts on the Bills but I am very leery of them ats this week.

Defense has over performed despite injuries but here is a game that Bernard/Taron could be sorely missed. Looking at the match up I think Jax has a couple advantages offensively.
I said it last week that Rasul & Benford are better than advertised & now Ingram is looking like a steal in the draft. That being said Brian Thomas & Kirk with Gabe as a third to me is a bigger test for the secondary.

Bills d has been successful largely because the Dline has been getting home a ton. Oliver played a near flawless game last week and Von miller looks like he's back. If they can get to Trevor early it'll be a long game but I do think Jax could get the ground game going to counter the pass rush.

The Bills will likely employ the same defense of bend but don't break but Gabe is going to have the size advantage over the third cb covering him and Kirk might be a matchup problem for Benford (I'd expect Rasul on BTjr). Gabe can block and no LB for Buf can match up with Engram. So staying in cover 2 is going to give Jax a huge advantage in the run game. If buffalo goes nickel they might be too small= broken tackles are going to turn into big gains. If they don't I doubt they have the speed at LB to keep up in coverage.

One MAJOR concern about backing the Bills over a fg favorite this season is the special teams. Bass went from very consistent to a crap shoot about halfway through last season. The single biggest negative takeaway from the Dolphins win was that horrific fg attempt by Bass. Zero confidence in him being able to nail a big kick and the team doesn't either- they worked out a couple kickers this week.

The way games are being played so far this season I think there has to be a bit more value placed on good kickers. I am not laying over 3 points with a mid to bad kicker, especially with a public fave.
Click to expand...
Good thoughts. Engram's status is very up in the air btw -- hamstring injury.
 
KJ said:
Starting LT and LG out for NE Thursday night

Center and RT are questionable with hip and wrist injures respectively
Click to expand...
Lg sidy has been out first 2 games and they've been dominating. Lt leverian lowe has troubles so not sure there will be a big dropoff.

I've got this like at 3. Jets been super unimpressive to me. Pats , maybe they played above their head against Bengals but they should have beat the Seahawks. A Seahawks team I think is better then Tennessee.
 
I think the line is right on Saints game. Saints have struggled with Hurts and these offenses as I’ve said. City is buzzing and Dome will be back rocking. No AJ Brown has gotta hurt.
Maybe a prop game
 
Lexington 125 said:
I'll have more thoughts on the Bills but I am very leery of them ats this week.

Defense has over performed despite injuries but here is a game that Bernard/Taron could be sorely missed. Looking at the match up I think Jax has a couple advantages offensively.
I said it last week that Rasul & Benford are better than advertised & now Ingram is looking like a steal in the draft. That being said Brian Thomas & Kirk with Gabe as a third to me is a bigger test for the secondary.

Bills d has been successful largely because the Dline has been getting home a ton. Oliver played a near flawless game last week and Von miller looks like he's back. If they can get to Trevor early it'll be a long game but I do think Jax could get the ground game going to counter the pass rush.

The Bills will likely employ the same defense of bend but don't break but Gabe is going to have the size advantage over the third cb covering him and Kirk might be a matchup problem for Benford (I'd expect Rasul on BTjr). Gabe can block and no LB for Buf can match up with Engram. So staying in cover 2 is going to give Jax a huge advantage in the run game. If buffalo goes nickel they might be too small= broken tackles are going to turn into big gains. If they don't I doubt they have the speed at LB to keep up in coverage.

One MAJOR concern about backing the Bills over a fg favorite this season is the special teams. Bass went from very consistent to a crap shoot about halfway through last season. The single biggest negative takeaway from the Dolphins win was that horrific fg attempt by Bass. Zero confidence in him being able to nail a big kick and the team doesn't either- they worked out a couple kickers this week.

The way games are being played so far this season I think there has to be a bit more value placed on good kickers. I am not laying over 3 points with a mid to bad kicker, especially with a public fave.
Click to expand...
Definitely agree bills not as good as they look. Miami just layed down. jax run game is one of the worst in league tho. I think jags path is much like last year , they just completely shut bills offense down. Which is unlikely to do again imo. Lean jags but not a team I think can run or stop the run well. Saw lot of missed tackles vs Cleveland. Browns had success finally in run game
 
I’d love the Texans/vikings over cept for the fact Houston settles for way too many fgs! Same reason i kinda lean Vikings, Houston got away w a million fgs vs below avg teams, it made games closer than they should have been, they settle for 4-5 fgs here I think they get beat.
 
2daBank said:
I’d love the Texans/vikings over cept for the fact Houston settles for way too many fgs! Same reason i kinda lean Vikings, Houston got away w a million fgs vs below avg teams, it made games closer than they should have been, they settle for 4-5 fgs here I think they get beat.
Click to expand...
Can't believe they're favored. They shouldn't be.
 
KJ said:
Can't believe they're favored. They shouldn't be.
Click to expand...

Im huge fan but the settling for fgs gonna get them beat! I like darnold pass yarfs also, I think it gonna be tough sledding for both rush offenses.

Is Akers gonna be the lead back? His rec prop only 11.5 yards, stroud has no problem checking down to rb, I think Akers capable but dunno if he gonna be the guy or they have other Options?
 
2daBank said:
Im huge fan but the settling for fgs gonna get them beat! I like darnold pass yarfs also, I think it gonna be tough sledding for both rush offenses.

Is Akers gonna be the lead back? His rec prop only 11.5 yards, stroud has no problem checking down to rb, I think Akers capable but dunno if he gonna be the guy or they have other Options?
Click to expand...
Gotta think Houston figures out the issue of settling for fgs tho?
 
2daBank said:
Im huge fan but the settling for fgs gonna get them beat! I like darnold pass yarfs also, I think it gonna be tough sledding for both rush offenses.

Is Akers gonna be the lead back? His rec prop only 11.5 yards, stroud has no problem checking down to rb, I think Akers capable but dunno if he gonna be the guy or they have other Options?
Click to expand...
I think Ogunbowale might cut into Akers receiving to a significant extent
 
2daBank said:
Im huge fan but the settling for fgs gonna get them beat! I like darnold pass yarfs also, I think it gonna be tough sledding for both rush offenses.

Is Akers gonna be the lead back? His rec prop only 11.5 yards, stroud has no problem checking down to rb, I think Akers capable but dunno if he gonna be the guy or they have other Options?
Click to expand...
They are the IT team this season and I'm looking for any reason to fade them including today
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Gotta think Houston figures out the issue of settling for fgs tho?
Click to expand...

Im not sure, I think it’s their coaches nature, they like taking points and I think they love watching their kicker kick 50+ yarders! They are not aggressive once they into fg range. Especially in the 1st half!
 
KJ said:
They are the IT team this season and I'm looking for any reason to fade them including today
Click to expand...

I’m actually wanting to be on them or props but they have blown 1.5 covers (depending on line ya got last week) in games they controlled mostly throughout but coach loves kicking fgs. Against a better team and I’m comvinced Vikings are very good I think it gets them beat here. I agree wrong team favs but I’m not really ready to start betting many sides. I like the Darnold prop better than side just cause I think he hits regardless of outcome and let’s be real it prob come down to 2-3 plays, one of darnold picks could get them beat, ya know he will throw one that either takes points off board or gives points away, it just who he is
 
On opposite side the spectrum how do they score in Pitt today? Harbaugh vs Tomlin has a ravens type pitt game written all over it doesn’t it? 19-16 but total so low that barely makes it under!! lol
 
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