Week 3 CFB Props Discussion

He Hate Me

He Hate Me

I hope everyone is treated the same
So far I have played:

Malik Washington (UVA) over 47.5 receiving yards
Pennix (Wash) over 347.5 passing yards, because why not

Considering:
Schrader (SYR) over 38 rushing yards, This number looks low, but Purdue has a good rush defense
KJ Jefferson (ARK) over 45 rushing yards, BYU only has one sack this year.

Anyone else see anything, @2daBank
 
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I really havnt looked super close yet. Like I said after I forget to post Penix last week, “does anyone really need me to tell them what they doing at udub?” , long as the weather is decent 350s seems kinda like a softball w him doesn’t it? Dude has went over 400 in both game, 450 against a boise d probably better than this Sparty d! Those were both at home but does it matter? Probably not.

Pretty sure I’ll be on some kinda Jayden Daniels prop this week, he ran for close to 100 on them last year and a poor man’s version of him just lit Mississippi st up.

Kinda busy today but I’ll try to get some stuff bet and up by this evening.
 
This might not be the most exciting slate but I think there some really good props out there!

I might even do the unthinkable and play a under or 2!! Maybe, lol.

Just running thru card while the wife doing one her treatments, so can’t bet anything yet, don’t wanna give too much away till I get down on them but just some thoughts for now.

Shouldn’t we be able to tee off on osu wrs? 1 of 2 things gonna happen, either wku is able to put up a few points and keep osu going a bit or they can’t get the offense going which means they won’t be taking any time off the clock! Either way osu starters should get plenty of chances and I’d think they want McCord primed and feeling confident going into the Irish game!! It could mean starters out by 3rd qrtr but if that the case you gotta think at least 2 wrs well over 100 w a td at that point.

I think gators are gonna be tough for vols to push around at the point of attack, they got a handful of gigantic defensive tackles! Those backs seem to split carry’s, obviously their yardage totals reflect the split carry’s. Anyone watch vols close this season? Just looking at the 2 backs ypc this season id guess Wright is getting the edge more while small runs between the tackles? I’d like to know for sure if that correct, if one is more the interior runner, or they simply take turns on drives until the other needs a break? I know they go fast so once drive starts probably a good bet that rb gets most the drive. I just know if one these guys is more between the tackles id def like to key on his under as I don’t think vols will get a lot of push this week. Im
Not sure either will have a ton of success rushing the ball but I’d like to avoid the one most likely to bust one. Honestly I think Milton is gonna have to play a game im not sure he capable of?
 
Is this the week iowa finally breaks the 25 point mark I heard was the goal w incentives for this oc to do so? There one iowa offensive player I trust to get his if they are actually gonna score enough to cover this spread! How crazy is it a team that has yet to score 25 is laying 28? Lol. Cuse didn’t really have a ton of success running the ball on this wmu team, they got it done thru the air. I’m not sure cuse even uses a tight end but I know iowa does and he a beast!!
 
That low total passing yards prop on Penix is telling.....I like the U56 in that game....D should be inspired and Wash playing on grass will slow them down a tad.....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
That low total passing yards prop on Penix is telling.....I like the U56 in that game....D should be inspired and Wash playing on grass will slow them down a tad.....
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What has it been? I been playing him but can’t even remember, lol, thought it was somewhere between 350-370 the 1st couple games? My memory sucks. At beginning the year I kinda just told myself long as no weather issues take his pass yards anytime it isn’t 400 this year. Lol. I don’t remember last season, im assuming they played this game @ Washington? He went for 397. If this was a early start might give me second thoughts but like it don’t start till like 5 local I think? Considering sparty passing game has looked pretty solid (granted vs cup cakes) you def on the “sharp” side this total but there just no freaking way I have the guys to play that! I’ll prob play Penix, I can live w it if he don’t hit 350+, won’t play over but ncaa totals I get fucjed on “sharp” unders all the time, damn game will play under for 3 qrtrs than they will score 40 in the 4th, I’ve gotten to the point I’ll just find another game than put myself thru that! I would def think bout 1st half if you really wanna play under, that started saving me some those redic 4th qrtrs, just a thought.
 
He Hate Me said:
So far I have played:

Malik Washington (UVA) over 47.5 receiving yards
Pennix (Wash) over 347.5 passing yards, because why not

Considering:
Schrader (SYR) over 38 rushing yards, This number looks low, but Purdue has a good rush defense
KJ Jefferson (ARK) over 45 rushing yards, BYU only has one sack this year.

Anyone else see anything, @2daBank
Click to expand...
Washington cashes before halftime.
 
He Hate Me said:
Also, I tailed @2daBank with Jayden Daniels over 54.5 yards rushing.
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Along w Daniels rushing also in lsu game

Brian Thomas ov 57.5 rec yards.

Normally Nabers is my preferred wr for lsu but the 6’5 Thomas has become one of Daniels favorites targets this season and this number a good 20 yards lower than Nabers. Lot of value for a guy who has already caught 3 tds w a bunch of targets and at least 6 catches in both games, he had a drop or 2 vs fsu but they kept looking his way. It really only takes 1 with him but he getting all kinds of chances and should continue to be one of Daniels fav targets.
 
He Hate Me said:
So far I have played:

Malik Washington (UVA) over 47.5 receiving yards
Pennix (Wash) over 347.5 passing yards, because why not

Considering:
Schrader (SYR) over 38 rushing yards, This number looks low, but Purdue has a good rush defense
KJ Jefferson (ARK) over 45 rushing yards, BYU only has one sack this year.

Anyone else see anything, @2daBank
Click to expand...

I been starting to jot yours down to look at when im going thru and putting down all the things I wanna look closer at. Hopefully you take that as the sign of respect it is more than be offended when I bring up questions bout one which I’m bout to do, lol.

Honestly I almost just added Jefferson rush yards to my plays without even looking much cause in my head it makes total sense, I don’t expect byu sacking him much as you said, I assume he probably faster and more athletic than most the cougars d, not that I know Jack shit bout byu d this year (just not a team I’ve looked at yet cause they haven’t played a gm worth capping til now). Anyways it looks like last year they came with a plan to keep Jefferson under wraps, I assume the fact they don’t really get a lot of sacks they prob didn’t have their guys try to sack him but rather hold the edges and protect from any seems opening up for him, he had 10 carry’s for only 30ish yards against them last year. That said (and again I’m looking at box score and assuming which can be dangerous) he ripped them apart thru the air which leads me to believe he did have a lot of time to throw and I doubt byu secondary can hang with ark wrs for as long as they asked. You think byu would alter that and try to get pressure or will they continue to try and keep him a passer which clearly didn’t work out as he completed 72% his passes for 362 and 5 tds!! He hasn’t had to throw all that much this year so far which has his passing yards at a measly 201.5!! My only 2 questions Is will byu try to bring pressure which then I agree he most likely smashes his rush yards but not really their mo, and I dunno what ark wrs look like this year?
 
2daBank said:
I been starting to jot yours down to look at when im going thru and putting down all the things I wanna look closer at. Hopefully you take that as the sign of respect it is more than be offended when I bring up questions bout one which I’m bout to do, lol.

Honestly I almost just added Jefferson rush yards to my plays without even looking much cause in my head it makes total sense, I don’t expect byu sacking him much as you said, I assume he probably faster and more athletic than most the cougars d, not that I know Jack shit bout byu d this year (just not a team I’ve looked at yet cause they haven’t played a gm worth capping til now). Anyways it looks like last year they came with a plan to keep Jefferson under wraps, I assume the fact they don’t really get a lot of sacks they prob didn’t have their guys try to sack him but rather hold the edges and protect from any seems opening up for him, he had 10 carry’s for only 30ish yards against them last year. That said (and again I’m looking at box score and assuming which can be dangerous) he ripped them apart thru the air which leads me to believe he did have a lot of time to throw and I doubt byu secondary can hang with ark wrs for as long as they asked. You think byu would alter that and try to get pressure or will they continue to try and keep him a passer which clearly didn’t work out as he completed 72% his passes for 362 and 5 tds!! He hasn’t had to throw all that much this year so far which has his passing yards at a measly 201.5!! My only 2 questions Is will byu try to bring pressure which then I agree he most likely smashes his rush yards but not really their mo, and I dunno what ark wrs look like this year?
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I saw the number for Jefferson and thought it was low based on betting on his rushing totals last year. I also thought the same about Schrader, just based on last year.

I don't know much about BYU other than last year Jefferson did not need to run against them last year because BYU could not get any pressure, they did not have a sack and only 1 TFL. BYU only has one sack on the season this year, so their defense seems to be more of the same from last year which worries me about today. Jefferson runs when he needs to and he may not need to.

So far I have just played a 0.5 unit on Jefferson.
 
These 2 ain’t exactly my strongest of the day but for the early window after the 2 lsu plays this the best I got and worth half a normal bet.


Benson ov 89.5 rush yards. He is always tricky cause I think he could basically go over this number most weeks but Norvell does so much w so many guys he often doesn’t get the carry’s. That said I think toddy could be a little different, I expect this to be more a challenge for fsu than the line indicates and there also some favorable weather it appears to help bc out. If conditions are tough to throw in and Benson gets 15+ carry’s I feel like he hits this, bc has played northin Illinios and holy cross, niu had 2 backs combine go for bout 120 then last week holy cross had their qb and a rb break 100 with the running back going for over 8 yards a rush! Pretty sure noles oline and benson are vastly more talented than these folks, again it just be about f game plan and if benson gets the carry’s, my bet is this the kind of game they might need to lean on him a bit more.

Luther burden ov 79.5 rec yards. If you have read anything I wrote in other threads about mizzou this week you will know I have nothing but disdain for this coaching staff and honestly this the only reason I don’t love this play more, cause I can’t trust these assholes to do anything that Is conducive to winning a fb game! That said this line obviously reeks to high heaven, everyone thinks k-st should smash tigers much like last year and pribsnly many others and it has went from -5 ppl thought was short to -3? I feel I can make w case for mizzou but again it would involve these coaches having a freaking clue which they havnt shown much evidence of. Anyways I see one path for tigers offense to have success and it testing a k-st secondary im not sure is super strong. Burden the guy if mizzou does throw and hopefully they throw more than they have so far this year! Despite the lack of overall passing burden has hit this number easy in both games, yes this a huge step up from the cream puffs but it could actually work to our advantage as the best way for tigers to have a shot in this game the bookmakers clearly think they do is to throw 30+ times with burden getting at least 10-12 targets.
 
He Hate Me said:
I saw the number for Jefferson and thought it was low based on betting on his rushing totals last year. I also thought the same about Schrader, just based on last year.

I don't know much about BYU other than last year Jefferson did not need to run against them last year because BYU could not get any pressure, they did not have a sack and only 1 TFL. BYU only has one sack on the season this year, so their defense seems to be more of the same from last year which worries me about today. Jefferson runs when he needs to and he may not need to.

So far I have just played a 0.5 unit on Jefferson.
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Im really close to loving his pass yards. He did have 10 rushes in last years game but byu contained him really well only allowing 3 somethinv per rush. It almost seems like they have to pick their poison and since it sounds like getting pressure isn’t a option that they will once again try and contain him as a runner and let him pick them apart in the air if he can?
 
2daBank said:
What has it been? I been playing him but can’t even remember, lol, thought it was somewhere between 350-370 the 1st couple games? My memory sucks. At beginning the year I kinda just told myself long as no weather issues take his pass yards anytime it isn’t 400 this year. Lol. I don’t remember last season, im assuming they played this game @ Washington? He went for 397. If this was a early start might give me second thoughts but like it don’t start till like 5 local I think? Considering sparty passing game has looked pretty solid (granted vs cup cakes) you def on the “sharp” side this total but there just no freaking way I have the guys to play that! I’ll prob play Penix, I can live w it if he don’t hit 350+, won’t play over but ncaa totals I get fucjed on “sharp” unders all the time, damn game will play under for 3 qrtrs than they will score 40 in the 4th, I’ve gotten to the point I’ll just find another game than put myself thru that! I would def think bout 1st half if you really wanna play under, that started saving me some those redic 4th qrtrs, just a thought.
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Last year his passing totals started off in the 310s and 320s. I think they have all been in the 330s and 340s this year.
 
I also played Gavin Wimsatt (Rut) over 17.5 rushing yards today. The same as last week when I played Card rushing total against the VT Defense. QBs who can run are always an issue with the VT defense because their DBs are good and after the QBs reads are covered there are rushing yards available for QB scrambles.

​

 
He Hate Me said:
Gonna roll with Lachey too.
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Not sure why they keep setting him here? I guess only concern today is the d scores a lot and starters leave super early?? Seems like a game iowa oc can help their average ppg and pretty sure I read he gets incentives for averaging 25ppg! He needs to drop 50 here ti have any hope of that! Lol
 
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