Week 3 Blitz

BlitzBandit

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
9-7 (+2.1 units)



Well, I'm off a losing week going 3-4 and down a bit over a unit last week. I was contemplating taking Dallas on Monday... good thing I didn't... I think it would've been more of a chasing thing, which is never a good thing. Anyway, I think the record got killed a bit when I played Detroit and Miami in my smaller bets. I think betting on those teams is really gambling. You are pretty much counting on God himself to lend a hand and strike down upon those who get in the way (like Aaron Rodgers ;) )... I think he tried which allowed Detroit to pull a great comeback... but I coulda swore I heard a loud "goddammit I missed" coming from up above sometime in the last 3 minutes of that game.. haha..

anyway.. hopefully after a misfire a bit last week, I can come up on the good side of things this week...

so.. on to this week...



LEANS so far:

Bengals and G-Men UNDER 41.5

and Cincy +13.5

Well, I played my boys against the Skins in week one and I played em' last week against the Rams... I'm not sure I'll play the spread in this game, but if I do, it will be on Cincy. The way I see it, The Giants came out strong in the opening game because they had lots to prove.. all the losses of key players had them motivated to show everyone they can do without them... last week was pretty simple... they played the Rams. That team pretty much sucks the big one and are not worth risking one fucking penny on this year. Wait.. no, nevermind (I think I'll be on em' this week.. hehe).

Anyway, I'll probably be taking the UNDER more than anything in this one. I know it's before a bye, but I just think the Giants will be kinda dragging out there settling for field goals and such. I do believe Cincy will want to play hard, but let's face it.. I'm not so sure they can do much anyway... specially against the Giants defense (that's usually one thing about the Giants that doesn't sputter too much and is pretty consistent). I'm thinking the Giants will get a lead by half to be satisfied enough (13-3 or 13-6 or something). I think the Giants will reach somewhere between 17-24 pts and I don't really see Cincy getting much past 10 pts if they do get past it. Which is why I'm skeptical on the spread... I wouldn't be surprised to see a 19-7 or a 24-10 type game (which pretty much means it could go either way in my opinion and the line is right there). I do think the UNDER looks pretty solid though and I should be on that.


other leans I have right now...


Bucs @ The Bears -3

Fins @ The Pats -12.5

Texans @ Titans -5

Cards +3 @ Skins

Saints @ Broncs -5

Rams +9.5 @ Seahawks

Jags @ Colts -5

Pitt +3.5 @ Philly

Jets +9 @ Bolts



here's a few smaller leans..


Chiefs +6 @ ATL

Raiders +9 @ Bills

Panthers @ Vikes -3.5


and pretty much FUCK the Brownies and Cowboys games.. hehe..

okay, okay... lean to Brownies and Cowboys.


hope we can make it a good one this week fellas... gl to all.
 
think you are right on about the Giants game - as you were the 1st two weeks

Bol this week Blitz - Go Big Blue
 
Well, I'm 50/50 with you. I see Bengles +13.5, but with a spread that big I'm definitely leaning over 42. I could see the Giants putting up half of that by half-time. Talkin 21-6 or 21-10. I agree the Giants D is fairly consistent and I don't see Cinci scoring more than 17 in this game, for any reason. But the Giants will get their points easily and often.

My $0.02. I haven't really dug deep on this game yet, that's just my feel for it.
 
xxDaJackaLxx said:
Well, I'm 50/50 with you. I see Bengles +13.5, but with a spread that big I'm definitely leaning over 42. I could see the Giants putting up half of that by half-time. Talkin 21-6 or 21-10. I agree the Giants D is fairly consistent and I don't see Cinci scoring more than 17 in this game, for any reason. But the Giants will get their points easily and often.

My $0.02. I haven't really dug deep on this game yet, that's just my feel for it.
Click to expand...



yea, makes sense, but the Giants have never really been about puting up alot of points... they can do it, but it usually has to be in a spot where they are really motivated to do it and when they are playing a defense that they are capable of doing it on...

obviously, Cincy doesn't have a defense that scares anyone so I'm sure the Giants are more than capable of puting up the big numbers... but I just don't see why they should be so motivated to do it...

I mean, even against the Rams last week, they were only up 13-6 at the half and 20-13 with a bit over 7 minutes left for the game.

At home, the Giants would have covered this kind of spread only once last year when they beat the Niners 33-15... they did have a 16-3 win against Philly, but I just don't think it's something that you count on them doing. I just think the odds are better of them not doing it... but with all that said, I still probably won't play the spread.. hehe.
 
We have been opposite alot so far this year.. I am happy to report we have many in common this week.. Always a good sign..:cheers:
 
oh brother, please dont do it ... i know its just business but damn i was looking at hitting the boys again, i think they could easily put up the points to cover this one, shit ... :seeya:
 
NYGiants25 said:
oh brother, please dont do it ... i know its just business but damn i was looking at hitting the boys again, i think they could easily put up the points to cover this one, shit ... :seeya:
Click to expand...


I do hate going against them myself... but I think it's gonna be one of those weeks.. I still gotta say though.. GO BIG BLUE!.. haha.
 
Let's not forget that it was just last year that the Giants were favored by 9.5 pts against the winless Dolphins right before their bye week... sure the game was in London.. but, if anything, that should have helped for motivation.. instead, they ended up with a 13-10 win... they were just dragging out there... something I expect to see again here.
 
Locked In:




Rams @ Seahawks -9

5.5 to win 5

I was leaning to the Rams in this game when I first saw the almost double digit points that Vegas was willing to give me... then I watched the last two games for both teams... what a joke... What the Fuck was I thinking?... NO WAY am I going to take the Rams on the road here. In fact, this is my biggest play so far this season. Take it for what it's worth, but Seattle is coming off a home loss to the Niners of all teams and they get another home game here to make up for that loss... and oh boy, will they. The Rams are completely out of sync and couldn't get shit together at home... I doubt they can do anything on the road (where they normally play worse) against a team thats already pissed off and is known for being tough at home. I'll take the Seahawks big in this one.




also locked in:


Bengals @ Giants UNDER 41.5

2.2 to win 2


Bengals +13.5 @ Giants

1.1 to win 1

Let's not forget that it was just last year that the Giants were favored by 9.5 pts against the winless Dolphins right before their bye week... sure the game was in London.. but, if anything, that should have helped for motivation.. instead, they ended up with a 13-10 win... they were just dragging out there... something I expect to see again here.




another lean I'm throwing out the window for sure is the Colts... I just don't think it's wise to go against the Jags after a home loss.

still going through the others.
 
I think at this point, the public is leaning towards the Rams and they are also hitting the Money Line... what's funny is Vegas is still fine with not moving the line, so I'm fine with it too.. hehe...


here's a bit more of my thoughts that I had posted in Sammys' thread...


the Rams' problems go way beyond blown pass coverages... it's not about any one receiver being able to exploit anything... both the Giants and the Eagles were able to do pretty much whatever they wanted... through the air and through the ground... and the Giants didn't even have reason to be motivated for that game... sure it was close for some time, but the score could have been alot worse considering the Giants were doing whatever at will... and with Seattle coming off a home loss to the Niners and with a bye lined up next, I don't see why they shouldn't be able to blow right by the Rams this week... regardless who's receiving the ball. I don't think that matters much this week... the Rams look clueless right now.


you can say Burress' td was a blown coverage, but I wouldn't recommend for anybody to start counting how many times Manning missed the open receivers... it was happening almost every play...

and I agree that it was a 7 pt game in the 4th quarter with the Rams doing virtually nothing, but the thing is... it was 20-7 and in the 4th quarter with the Giants in neutral gear before the Rams finally got their first td, and that td happened to be a long pass that was wrestled for by Holt that was more bullshit than not... no way should they have called that a td... it should have been incomplete... or even an int before a td...

that fluke td happens to be their only td all year... in fact, The Rams are the only team that has not had one single play inside the redzone yet... that's how shitty they are... I don't know how they expect to do anything AT Seattle if they are going to be counting on a fluke td...

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love the seattle play, thanks for putting the obvious in front of my face, THE RAMS FUCKING SUCK!, lets get a solid sunday in this week:shake:
 
This SEA-STL game is the ugliest game on the card to cap this week.

I am well aware of many of the points made here re: STL not getting into the opp's red zone yet and their 3 of 24 success rate or rather ineptitude rate on 3rd down conversions.

Yet, I look at the 2 powerhouses they played and then I look at SEA's opposition in BUF and SF, the fact that SEA is decimated in the receiving corps and it is an interdivisional matchup with generous points being laid by a banged up team. We can see that the STL O-line is still brutal even with Pace back but on paper these guys have the talent to definitely hang and one has to wonder ,despite their horrendous coaching, how much the players will want to show that they are not as bad as their 84-16 deficit showing of the last weeks as they prepare to take on a wounded rival.

I like some big chalk this week of the many we have but not this one.I could be way off but I ain't laying it with this group.If the Lambs show me nothing this week then I know for sure that they belong on the bottom rung of the Vegas doghouse with MIA.

Cheers and here is to an entertaining week #3 set of tilts!
 
Really like Seattle this week as well. Seattle's crowd noise+ST Louis's weak O-line+ Seattle's pass rush= false starts and sacks all day.

BOL man
 
NYGiants25 said:
oh i forgot to tell you, GIANTS WIN BY 16+, TRUST ME ...:shake:
Click to expand...


for my sake, I hope not by 16+... but either way...


18_1_210.gif
 
xflrejects said:
on paper these guys have the talent to definitely hang and one has to wonder ,despite their horrendous coaching, how much the players will want to show that they are not as bad as their 84-16 deficit showing of the last weeks as they prepare to take on a wounded rival.
Click to expand...


on paper, they may look like they have talent and big names... but the fact remains that this team is shit... and anybody who is betting on their side either hasn't seen their games thoroughly or they have some King Kong Balls!
 
Retburj said:
gl this week BB

where u been in bitch ball playoffs....miss ya over there ;)
Click to expand...


I tell ya man... I had a big year with BitchBall about 3 years ago... but it's been shit ever since with them... damn bitches.. hehe.

it also pissed me off that LJ ditched the team when they were in the running for first place... and now they have to deal with LA without her... bitch.. haha.

gl this week Ret
 
I ended up adding another unit on Cincy and added a few more plays..


updated card:

Rams @ Seahawks -9

5.5 to win 5



Bengals @ Giants UNDER 41.5

2.2 to win 2



Bengals +13.5 @ Giants

2.2 to win 2


also added:


Panthers @ Vikings -3

2.3 to win 2



Raiders +10 @ Bills

2.3 to win 2



Dolphins @ Patriots -12

1.1 to win 1



Saints @ Broncs -5

1.1 to win 1
 
still contemplating that Colts game... was originally leaning Colts... I'm leaning Jags a bit now, but I just don't think it's ever a smart thing to go against the Colts... you will win doing it sometimes, but you will lose more than not on the long haul... probably just stay away from that one.
 
Rams @ Seahawks -9

5.5 to win 5

I just think this is going to resemble last years game at Seattle when Bulger was sacked 7 times and threw 3 picks and 0 tds for a 33-6 beating... btw... the Seahawks were coming off a home loss in that one too.. they had just lost to the Saints 17-28.



Bengals @ Giants UNDER 41.5

2.2 to win 2

I think we are going to see alot of running by the G-Men in this one... they are going to see that the ground game is going to work and there won't be much need to pass... they'll get their scores of course, but I figure 17-24 pts is good enough... I don't see Cincy doing much at all here... about 10 pts tops.



Bengals +13.5 @ Giants

2.2 to win 2

The Giants should be in cruise control for most of the game. They won't ever lose the lead and won't have a need to put up tons of point.. it should be satisfying enough to have ball control and clock management and go into the bye with the 'W'. With that said, I think they will keep themselves within the two tds range.



also added:


Panthers @ Vikings -3

2.3 to win 2

I know Steve Smith is back for the Panthers and Adrian Peterson is questionable, but the big thing is that Gus Frerotte will be in at quarterback this week... okay, okay.. that's not a big thing... I guess what I meant to say was... the big thing is that Tavaris Jackson won't be at quarterback this week... now that's big.



Raiders +10 @ Bills

2.3 to win 2

I'm looking at this game like I did the Giants game. I see success for the Bills ground game and I figure they use that to control the clock... the Raiders were horrible against the run last season and haven't looked too great this season... but I think catching the Bills after a big win @ Jacksonville may actually help. Maybe they'll still be hungover. If the Raiders can work their ground game, which is pretty much all they got, and Buffalo comes out with a sloppy performance, which I believe is very possible, then I'll be a happy camper.



Dolphins @ Patriots -12

1.1 to win 1

I think this is the game where the Patriots prove they can be worthy of those high spreads again (even though they really aren't.. hehe). Matt Cassel is nowhere near what Brady is, but he has done what has been needed. In the seven quarters he's played, he's completed 71 percent of his passes and doesn't have an interception or fumble... no reason why he doesn't succeed here.



Saints @ Broncos -5

1.1 to win 1


I'll more than likely be on the over in this one as well. When a QB like Jason Campbell can look like a superstar throwing for over 300 yards against you, that's when you know you have a soft pass defense... and the way Cutler has been playing, there is no way in hell the Saints defense can do anything to slow him down. Marshall and Royal should be all over the place. Denver does have a good defense, but I haven't seen the Saints offense sputter yet. They can move the ball on the best of em. This should be a shootout and I be expecting the home team to come out on top.
 
added:


Saints @ Broncos OVER 51

1.1 to win 1

You can read the quick sum up I gave for the broncos game to see why I'm taking this. Just think both offenses will be clicking easily here. One offense has been clicking scoring 41 and 39 points in their first two games and they're playing a defense that allowed Jason Campbell to look Peyton Manning... and the other offense is good enough to move the ball on anyone. I like those chances.
 
my other initial leans on the early games were KC, Chicago, Tennessee, and Arizona... I pretty much turned on all of em' and started liking the other side... I can see all of them going either way, so screw em' all... decided to just stay the hell away from all of those.
 
Rams @ Seahawks -9 - WON

Bengals @ Giants UNDER 41.5 - loss

Bengals +13.5 @ Giants - WON

Panthers @ Vikings -3 - WON

Raiders +10 @ Bills - WON

Dolphins @ Patriots -12 - loss

Saints @ Broncos -5 - loss

Saints @ Broncos OVER 51 - WON



today:

5-3 (+7.6 units)
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