Week 3 ~ 2021

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
NFL

LAST - [1-1 +0.85u]
WEEK - [11-10 +6.06u]
2021 - [17-16 +4.79U]


Texans +8, ...How does it work with the Texans starting a new unknown tonight at QB? There can't be any data on Davis Mills, so is it basing it off Tyrod Taylor's performance in weeks 1 and 2? You wouldn't get the +8 with Tyrod, though. The lookahead line on the game was CAR -4.5, so they're giving Mills a 3.5-point downgrade (IMO that's too much).

May add a McCaferty prop for rush attempts over 19...too juice right now at -200 but hopefully it gets better

  • 4/3.81 Texans +8 -105
  • 3/2.83 PANTHERS / TEXANS o43-106

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Top 10

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
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Tom Brady continues to defy science, aging and conventional football wisdom. It would be hard to make a stronger MVP case through two weeks for anyone other than Brady (though we’ll try, keep reading!). His resume: nine touchdowns (on pace for more than 76 in 17 games) and two interceptions for the best team in the NFL. He averaged more than 10 yards per attempt last week against the Falcons (which also tells you plenty about the state of Atlanta’s defense). Brady’s first big defensive test comes this week on the road against the Rams.

2. Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
How could Rams fans not feel good about Matthew Stafford? How good does Stafford feel in Sean McVay’s offense, throwing to his new best friend Cooper Kupp? Things weren’t as easy in Indianapolis as they were in the opener against the Bears, and Stafford threw his first pick, but also two touchdowns in the win. The challenge ratchets up this week against the defending Super Bowl champs.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

It was jarring to watch Patrick Mahomes throw that interception while getting brought to the turf. And maybe the Chiefs should keep the ball in his hands when trying to set up a game-winning field goal. But is there a franchise that feels better about its quarterback than Kansas City? Mahomes has six touchdown passes and the one pick in two games. He’s completed 76.1 percent of his passes. At times versus Cleveland and Baltimore, it looked like he could do whatever he wanted against the defense.

4. San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

Jimmy Garoppolo’s numbers are reflective of what the 49ers can be — 22-of-30 for 189 yards, one touchdown, no picks in a defensive-dominant win. That worked against the Eagles, but Trey Lance is here to take the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan’s offense to another level. We haven’t seen enough of Lance yet to know what that can mean, but we have seen plenty of Garoppolo running this offense to know what that ceiling is.

5. Buffalo Bills (1-1)

Phew. Imagine the panic and the narrative around Josh Allen if the Bills had started 0-2. A blowout win against a division rival is certainly healing. But should we be worried about Allen, regardless of the final score of that game? Yes and no. His completion percentage after two weeks is 56. That’s well below his 69 percent average last season, and much more in line with his first and second seasons, when he was among the more inaccurate starting quarterbacks in the NFL. A two-game sample isn’t enough to declare regression, and we want to believe that Allen will revert back to his 2020 form soon. Check back with us in a month to see if our confidence in Allen is waning.

6. Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

Lamar Jackson the runner was outstanding in the comeback win over the Chiefs, rushing for 107 yards. Lamar Jackson the thrower had a pair of interceptions, but was pretty accurate (18-of-26) while also adding a touchdown through the air. There’s no question he’s Baltimore’s franchise QB — as with Baker Mayfield, we’re just awaiting his next contract. Sunday night’s game showed some of Jackson’s limitations, but also how he can bring his team back against the game’s best.

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7. Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

How fun is Kyler Murray? Cardinals games can be a roller coaster, and Murray does have three picks this season, but he’s also completed 73.5 percent of his passes and has seven touchdown throws. He’s found the end zone more times this season (nine) than several teams and threw for 400 yards against the Vikings. While this is a crucial year for both Murray and more so head coach Kliff Kingsbury, several teams would be more than happy to have Murray as their guy.

8. Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

That whole “Russell Wilson will accept trades to these teams” narrative seems like a long time ago. He threw for 343 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Titans, an uncharacteristic fourth-quarter meltdown at home for Seattle. While Wilson could’ve done more in the final quarter and overtime, he’s still one of the game’s best — he has six touchdowns and no picks two games into the season, and a passer rating of 146.9. The future of the Wilson-Seahawks marriage, though, still isn’t set in stone.

9. Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)

Derek Carr has an edge to him through two weeks, and boy, has it been fun to watch. He leads the league with 817 passing yards, and while sometimes that stat doesn’t translate into wins, the Raiders are 2-0. He had the 61-yard, highlight-reel touchdown throw to Henry Ruggs at Heinz Field last week. After another offseason of trade rumors, maybe Carr is settling into Jon Gruden’s offense and this will finally work. We’ve still got a long way to go.

10. Cleveland Browns (1-1)

Baker Mayfield’s Next Gen passing chart is full of green dots from Week 2. He was 19-of-21 passing in Cleveland’s win over Houston, an efficient albeit not incredibly dynamic afternoon. The question with Mayfield is contract-related at this point. The Browns feel good about him, but two interceptions and only one touchdown pass two weeks into the season isn’t going to add dollar signs to a future extension. Having nine incomplete passes, though, is pretty impressive.

...and then there's the J E T S
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WOW, 1-6 on Thursday night after 3 games...maybe I should just wait till Sunday

NFL

LAST - [0-2 -7u]
WEEK - [0-2 -7u]
2021 - [17-18 -2.21u]

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  • 4/3.85 CARDINALS -7½ -104
  • 6/5.71 Colts +4½ -105
  • 4/3.81 Washington Football Team +7 -105
  • 6/6.30 Patriots -3 +105
  • 4/3.85 PATRIOTS / SAINTS u43 -104
  • 6/5.71 Giants -2 -105
  • 4/3.81 Bears +7½ -105
  • 6/5.45 STEELERS -2½ -110
  • 4/3.96 BENGALS / STEELERS u43 -101
  • 4/3.96 RAIDERS -3½ -101
  • 6/5.77 RAMS +1½ -104
  • 6/5.77 VIKINGS +2 -104

randoms...
  • Saints / Pats U 43 ...NO gets Lattimore back, they face a team in Pats that is good defensively and not very good offensively. Jameis returned to normal a week ago, and Belichik prolly keeps him in check. The Pats should've scored 40 last week vs the Jets. They forced four turnovers, as well as a missed FG, and only scored 26. While it's possible Winston throws four picks, the defense wont be able to set the offense up every drive like they did a week ago. I think this kinda goes like the past two Saints unders, and I'll continue hitting it as long as they play defensive minded team and Lameis is starting. Should be a slow game, with the Patriots prevailing 20-13ish...
  • WFT +7 ...I'm not impressed with BUF so far. I know I played 'em last week and won 35-0, but it was sort of a bad 35-0? Allen was 17-33 for less than 200 yards, it was sluggish. Now the footballs are on a mini bye and getting a TD? This opened at 9 and has been dropping since. I was impressed with Heinecke on Thursday and think Washington will be able to score. WAS won't win, but about 27-23 loss gets the cover.
  • Bengals / Steelers U 43 ...I'm not heavily into stats until after week 4 because a lot of fluky things can happen early in the season, but the Bengals defense has been very good. 7th in DVOA and held MIN to 24 for 5 quarters plus only allowed one TD last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Bears had multiple drives start in Bengals territory that did not result in 6. I can't say much good about the Steelers offense...sheesh. Defense is still good. No TJ Watt sucks, but lets not pretend this Bengals offense is anything good either. They still run too much, they still have a bad line. This is going to be the weekly game you won't see much on redzone. Neither team gets out of the teens...17-13 PIT

Still considering this one, but it does have me licking my chop
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    49ers -3 ...SF looks like a very bad match-up for Green Bay. Both teams are more or less trotting out the same squads they did in 2019, and the 49ers laid an absolute beating on them both times, first to the tune of 37-8, and then a similar result in NFCCG, 38-20, where the 49ers famously passed only 9 times the entire game. Long story short: the Pack is utterly outclassed in the trenches. If a team passes on you 9 times times in an entire game, and 0 times in the second half, you know what's coming. Yet, the GB front 7 was utterly helpless. True, Raheem Mostert, who put up 200+ yards on the ground is out, and he is without a doubt SF's best back, and SF is pulling guys off the street to play at RB this week, but they've done this before without skipping a beat. Last year, it was Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jamachal Hasty running over Bellichick's defense. Plus, the 49ers have added Trent Williams and Alex Mack on the o-line since then, and GB is without their best d-lineman, Z. Smith. If you aren't aware, the GB front 7 has been atrocious so far this year. Same story on the other side of the trenches. Pack has had zero answer whatsoever for the 49ers d-line, even with a healthy Baktiari. And this time, they are starting a 3rd string LT who will have to face solid pass rushers Bosa and Ford. That's not good for Rodgers and co. 49ers did show some weakness vs the run vs Detroit, but stud DT Kinlaw appears to be healthy again, and I don't anticipate GB running with much success. Much is made of the SF secondary woes, but it looks like starting CB Moselely is healthy to play this week, and in any case, those issues are overblown; their rookie from Oregon looks legit, and Josh Norman, while long in the tooth, is holding his own, and the SF defense has always been about its front 7 anyway. SF will pass more than 9 times today. But they will still control the clock by moving the ball primarily on the ground, and hammer the GB defense with some deep PA shots to TE Kittle and crossers to WR Samuel. Expect GB to play from behind, with less time, being forced to take deep shots, leaving Rodgers vulnerable to the vaunted SF pass rush. This could easily be another beat down. Oh, and this is SF's home opener, and a prime-time game.
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NFL

LAST - [5-8 -19.46u]
WEEK - [5-10 -26.46u]
2021 - [22-26 -21.67u]

Monday:
  • 4/3.33 Eagles +3 -120 1st Half
  • 4/3.33 Eagles. +4 -120
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Rough day yesterday, comeback begins today.
 
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