Week 21

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
SUNDAY 2-1
WEEK 36-16 +22u
AASB +29.43u

Suffice is to say this was my best week of the year by at least 2x. Also after tanking the first half and losing almost 34 units, I have come back to with 5 units of even ytd. I wrote off the 1st half and stopped tracking it because it gave off negative energy, but definitely not forgotten.

Week 20 was propped up by a 9-0 Friday..but no bad days help a lot too
View attachment 34106

MONDAY:
Kershaw has been pitching well and this game could probably go either way, but I'll take the +190. Would be looking to fade CLE if most anyone except Bailey...just cant back that dude any time. I will likely be on Braves for both games...just no line out yet.


randoms...

monday records
oak 8-2, sea 7-2, cle 9-5, lad 7-4
kc 2-11, chw 2-9, tex 4-10

record since jun 1
home: nyy 19-8, oak 18-8, lad 17-11, cin 19-13...tex 14-17
road: az 21-11 ...laa 8-20, wa 10-21, mia 10-18, tor 11-18

record vs lefty since may 1

lad 19-13, oak 17-13
sd 7-18, laa 9-18, sf 12-18

today's starters in 2018
top$$- severino 19-5 8.8u, mikolas 16-7 +6.9, gonzales 15-8 +4.9
worse- bailey 1-14 -12.5, clevinger 9-14 -10.5, kershaw 8-9 -10, degrom 9-14 -9.6, lopez 7-16 -8.3

L365 (Severino back on top while mikolas marching up list)

severino 28-8 +13.7u ...#1 money starter
mikolas 16-7 +6.9u ...#16

degrom 11-20 -16.1u ...#1 best fade
bailey 4-19 -14.4u ... #3 fade
kershaw 16-12 -9.7u ... #11

hoping to ride this wave of success...
View attachment 34110
 
MONDAY 5-1-1

Ever once in awhile, things just fall into place. I got quite lucky last night with the card comeback, sea comeback to cover stick and giants 9th inn...yeah sf didn't need that last btw run and I would have hit the under too...but a push aint bad in that spot :D

Carp is in the ZONE

TUESDAY:
MIL 1-8 on road in division day games this year, but Chacin has been strong play all year...so I'm abstaining for now. Everybody always ranting about how bad gallardo is, but dude just wins, tex 8-1 w/him since 5/1 and he's a top 10 money starter over L365 with only 12 starts(9-3)...may have to get some later. Would like to go back to M's tonight w/Pax but fiers has been such a beast...will have to ponder longer

randoms...

tuesday records
az 14-4, nyy 13-4, mil 13-5, HOU 12-6, phi 11-6
bal 3-13, det 5-12, chw 6-13, nym 6-12, pit 6-10

record since jun 1
home: oak 19-8, phi 19-8, nyy 19-9, min 22-11, cubs 22-11...kc 8-23, sd 8-19, bal 10-23
road: bos 24-10, az 21-12, cle 18-14 ...laa 9-20, tb 9-20, wa 10-22, mia 10-20, tor 11-19

record vs lefty since may 1

tb 15-9, oak 18-13, lad 19-14
kc 9-19, chw 6-14, bal 11-18, sf 13-18, mil 9-13

today's starters since may 1
top$$- fiers 12-6 +11.2u, gallardo 8-1 +9.4, romano 10-6 +6.3, chacin 12-6 +6
worse- verlander 9-10 -14.2u, vargas 2-9 -7.1, odorizzi 7-11 -4.8, gio 7-9 -4.3, gant 3-4 -4

L365

chacin 22-11 +13.6u ...#1 money starter
fiers 16-11 +10u ...#6
gallardo 9-3 +8.4u ...#9
romano 10-6 +6.3u ...#14

vargas 6-15 -8.2u ...#17 best fade

Wake me, it must be a dream... 21-4-1 since Friday:happydance3:

Oy8bquy.jpg
 
HonestD said:
:daman:Awesome job mister. Keep it rolling. Red Sox -133? Wow.
Click to expand...


yeah seems cheap for sox, but philly is 19-8 at home since jun 1.. bos only team with better home record in that time, thing is bos even has a better record on the road 24-10 :superman:
 
How much does home field matter in baseball?

Is there a specific game # in the series where a home/away team has a significant edge?
 
home teams won ~52% so far this year
but series game #2 was dominated by visitors who won 51.2% at +113 for 51.4 units to the good
here's the query showing home records by series game this year

View attachment 34131
 
Awesome!

Does the data you pull from have updated power rankings?

It'd be interesting to run that same queue but with a power rankings factor.
 
See I understand reluctant to bet vs Gallardo but it will probably work. Still thinking but I do not think Arizona on a 14-4, Corbin best rest and playing off a loss is going to go down
 
couple more...
  • 965 Seattle Mariners -123 line doesn't make sense and fiers has beat me before...so I'm in
  • 974 Texas Rangers +163
 
mrpickem said:
No, it just houses historical data sine 2004 for MLB, goes further back for football

www.killersports.com

Here's a decent power guide I do use at times, but it's only updated weekly
Click to expand...

Can't wait to share thoughts during football...really appreciate your posts...even when I have disappeared from time to time this summer I always stop in to read your findings...let's finish the grind strong
 
TUESDAY 5-4

Was 5-2 on original pick but had to add 2 losers late...still 2 big dog winners netted me 2.35u and that the bottom line. Not bad at all.

WEDNESDAY:
Likely will be on mets(gulp) once game is lined...wheeler has been dealin, also looking at possible cubs and tiggs early on as well

randoms...

wednesday records
cle 15-3, bos 12-3, HOU 12-5, nyy 11-5, atl 10-6
tor 4-14, az 4-12, kc 5-12, sd 5-11, bal 6-11

record since jun 1
home: oak 20-8, nyy 20-9, min 23-11, phi 19-10, cubs 22-12...kc 8-24, sd 8-20, bal 11-23, hou 15-18
road: bos 25-10, cle 19-14 ...tb 9-21, wa 10-23, mia 10-21, laa 10-20, tor 12-19

record vs lefty since may 1

hou 20-16, lad 19-15
laa 10-18, sf 14-18, sea 14-18

today's starters since may 1
top$$- leake 12-6 +8.2u, holland 11-6 +8, hellickson 9-5 +3.6
worse- gausman 4-13 -10, hendricks 9-10 -6.9, t.anderson 6-12 -6.7, hess 2-9 -6.5

L365

leake 20-11 +11.8u ...#2 money starter

gausman 10-21 -12.1u ...#3 best fade
urena 10-22 -11.9 ...#5
bundy 10-17 -8.4 ...#16

GL fellow degens.
:smiledrinkbeer:


Minor leaguers having fun and doing what they have to
View attachment 34154 View attachment 34155

and on occasion they make out..like when yu darvish bought the whole team ruth chris w/rehabbing
View attachment 34153
 
Last edited:
WEDNESDAY 5-3

Well after 5 straight winning days it was inevitable a losing night was due...at least it wasn't that bad. Actually I played a few others that I didn't get a chance to post, 2-1.

THURSDAY:
Tony fukn wit me this morning as several games not line yet...definitely gonna hit sl and phi when up. Thinking about twinks and halos but likely to pass. Unfortunately I will be on the road all day today as I'm driving down to s beach, so dont know if I will post again. I'm old school and need my pc or laptop as I don't function that well on tiny device like my samsung note

randoms...

thursday records
phi 10-3, cubs 9-3, atl 8-3, nyy 9-4, wa 8-4
kc 2-7, tor 4-9, sd 4-8, nym 4-8, tex 4-7

record since jun 1
home: min 24-11, phi 20-10, nyy 20-10, atl 20-13 ...kc 8-25, sd 8-21
road: az 22-12 ...det 9-23, wa 10-24, tb 10-21, laa 10-21, tor 13-19

record vs lefty since may 1

nyy 18-6
nym 7-15, pit 12-18, phi 8-12

today's starters since may 1
top$$- nola 14-4 +9.8u, gray 11-5 +5.2, lester 12-6 +4.4
worse- roark 7-10 -4.9, liriano 3-10 -4.4, skaggs 7-8 -4

L365

lester 22-11 +8.1u ...#9 money starter
nola 20-12 +7u ...#13
snell 18-12 +6.9u ...#15

roark 13-17 -7.6u ...#18 best fade

Very bush league display by fish last night on first pitch https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/08/15/2388656283/1534377358372/asset_2500K.mp4
 
Last edited:
Roark has been good L4 but I see WA as a team fade, underachieving 500 ballclub without direction. WEAVER has been good July forward

Adds
  • SL -130
  • PHI -170
  • PHI -1' +105
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
:cheers3:

...on da road again :cool:
 
THURSDAY 2-5

&#%$%*

FRIDAY:
Torn on sox as I have several pointers indicating play on stanek, just hard to fade sox esp at home. still looking at a few others including twinks, lad over and maybe even sd.
Good luck players :shake:

randoms...

friday records
laa, tor, col, mil, pit => all 13-7
kc 6-13, det 6-13, sd 7-13, atl 7-13, tb 7-12

record since jun 1
home: bos 22-7, min 25-11, oak 20-9, phi 21-11, nyy 20-11, sea 19-12, cle 19-12 ... sd 8-22, chw 14-20
road: hou 22-7, az 23-12, lad 21-14 ...kc 8-23, bal 8-22, det 9-24, mia 10-22, laa 11-21, tb 11-21, tor 13-20

record vs lefty since may 1

col 21-10, tb 15-10, lad 20-15
sd 7-19, pit 12-19, az 13-17

today's starters since may 1
top$$- nola 14-4 +9.8u, freeland 13-5 +9.5, leblanc 13-6 7.8, d-rod 9-3 +6.1, e-jack 7-2 +6.1
worse- ray 2-7 -8.1, shields 6-14 -6.8, hess 2-9 -6.5, stanek 8-11 -4

L365

nola 20-11 +8u ...#11 money starter

lynn 11-19 -8.8u ...#15 best fade

ac611397-b805-4a82-913c-7afaadca7c3d.png
 
FRIDAY 5-2
Wow, two straight winning Fridays :ninja:

SATURDAY:
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies +102
  • 960 Atlanta Braves -155
  • 965 Toronto Blue Jays +254
  • 970 Oakland Athletics +1½ -170
  • 972 Boston Red Sox -1½ -115
  • 979 Los Angeles Dodgers -130
randoms...

saturday records
bos 16-5, nyy 14-6, phi 12-6, oak 13-7, cubs 14-8
bal 4-18, nym 6-13, kc 7-15, chw 7-13, tor 7-12, sf 8-13

record since jun 1
home: bos 23-7, min 26-11, oak 21-9, phi 22-11, nyy 21-11, cle 20-12, sea 19-13 ... sd 8-23, chw 15-20
road: hou 22-8, az 24-12, lad 22-14 ...kc 8-24, bal 8-23, det 9-25, mia 10-23, laa 11-22, tb 11-22, tor 13-21

record vs lefty since may 1

bos 15-9, hou 21-16
mia 9-14, laa 11-18

today's starters since may 1
top$$- price 14-3 +10.9u, mikolas 14-5 +7.5, harvey 9-7 +5, chatwood 9-5 +3.9, folty 10-7 +3.7
worse- cobb 4-15 -9.2, degrom 6-12 -9.1, perez 1-5 3.1

L365

severino 27-9 +10.8u ...#5 money starter
price 17-6 +10u ...#6
mikolas 17-7 +7.9u ...#12

degrom 12-19 -13.3u ...#4 best fade
cobb 8-20 -10.2u ...#8
keuchel 20-17 -8u ... #16

View attachment 34202
 
Toronto certainly interests me al though first half is obviously better
Boston check
Braves---Colorado is a little better on Saturday and their starter good on 6 plus Folty bad ERA with West
Maybe Dodgers better starter
 
tuck321 said:
Toronto certainly interests me al though first half is obviously better
Boston check
Braves---Colorado is a little better on Saturday and their starter good on 6 plus Folty bad ERA with West
Maybe Dodgers better starter
Click to expand...

Definitely wasnt real happy with atl line, but folty had been on a run as the Braves have too, even at fish expense, probably weakest rox starter to boot with near 6 era away
 
SATURDAY 4-4

Meh, a couple got away but that happens, nothing too bad.

SUNDAY:
Rays kill it in DIV, except vs sox 4-11. Likely on sox when line is up minus stick
NYY best record vs lefty while jays have worse.
It's been a blast fading Verlander last 20 starts as it has returned ridiculous 68% ROI do to crazy juice
View attachment 34216

randoms...

sunday records
bos 16-4, atl 13-4, sf 14-6, oak 13-7, lad 13-7
mil 4-15, kc 5-13, tex 6-14, det 7-13, cin 7-13, tb 7-13

record since jun 1
home: bos 24-7, oak 22-9, min 26-12, nyy 22-11, phi 22-12, cle 20-13, sea 20-13 ... sd 9-23, chw 15-21
road: hou 22-9, az 24-13, lad 22-15 ...kc 9-24, bal 9-23, det 10-25, mia 11-23, tb 11-23, laa 12-22, tor 13-22

record vs lefty since may 1

nyy 18-7, cin 16-12, hou 21-16
tor 8-23, pit 12-20, mia 9-14

today's starters since may 1
top$$- chacin 13-6 +7.3u, sanchez 9-5 +5.4, castillo 10-8 +3.2, marquiz 10-8 +3.1
worse- verlander 9-11 -16.3u, clevinger 7-12 -10, vargas 2-10 -8.1, lopez 6-13 -6.1, gio 7-10 -5.3

L365

chacin 23-10 +16u ...#1 money starter
pivetta 19-13 +8.6u ...#11
manaea 19-12 +7.5u ...#13

urena 9-23 -13.9u ...#3 best fade
kershaw 16-13 -11.8u ...#6
gio 15-18 -8.8u ... #13

at least jv gets to go home to this...even if preggo
t0lzV2t.gif
 
Most seem logical. There is some indication that Milwaukee can win this one but not enough for me to bet it
 
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