Week 20

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Sunday 5-3
Week -2.1u
AASB +7.4


  • 952 Miami Marlins +143
  • 966 Los Angeles Angels -140
  • 969 Houston Astros -144
  • 958 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +160
  • 960 Cleveland Indians -1½ +100
Mets -155...wow, but it is Bailey, can't fade em both. lol

NYY gave it away,,,the div, the game and their confidence
https://streamable.com/nb4ut
https://streamable.com/lapjx
Props to Matt Vasgersian for carrying the ESPN booth. Pretty sure Jessica Mendoza fell asleep or something cuz she was pretty silent after the 9th inning

This one may not be too easy to cap, lots of variables that sometimes don't exist.

Need to take into account the Yankee game didn't end until about 1 am EST and after the 5 hour, horrible loss/sweep, to their rival and divisional leader, have to get up yet again for an 8 pm EST nationally televised game on the road.

CHW is coming off a solid performance against an overachieving Rays team, but, nonetheless is in good form at the moment. In addition to what was said above, Yanks are in free fall mode without Judge and Sanchez. Pitching has been below average, and honestly, just seem lost on the field at times in my opinion.

Lance Lynn is going for the yanks and has posted a 6+ ERA in July. The bullpen was also used last night, which means it could be all hands on deck if it gets ugly early (maybe turn to gray). Covey on the other hand has been just as bad recently as Lynn, posting a similar 6+ ERA in July. However, he pitches slightly better at home then on the road (4.18 ERA).

The NY ML is most likely too steep at near -200, I would have to go run line if anything. However, due to the starting pitchers form for each side, and bullpen usage, the over might be worth a look here at 9.5 runs. Still pondering...

randoms...

monday records
sea 6-2, cle 8-5
kc 2-10, chw 2-8, tex 4-9

record since jun 1
home: laa 17-11...kc 6-18, nym 10-22, tex 12-16
road: hou 20-7, nyy 17-13 ...det 9-20, min 8-17

record vs lefty since may 1

pit laa 6-18, kc 8-16, 10-16, sea 12-17

today's starters in 2018
top$$- rodriguez 8-2 +6.1u, freeland 13-9 +5.4, leblanc 11-6 +5, goodley 13-9 +4.5
worse- bailey 1-13 -11.5, hamels 8-13 -4.3, weaver 11-11 -4.1

L365
bailey 5-18 -11.7u..#4 fade
 
couple more
  • 956 Colorado Rockies -138
  • 955 Pittsburgh Pirates/Colorado Rockies Under 6 -135 for 1st 5 Innings
 
MONDAY 7-1

Nice day, could've aced it if not greedy on zona laying stick

TUESDAY:
randoms...

tuesday records
az 14-3, mill 13-4, nyy 12-4, hou 11-6, sea 11-6
bal 3-12, det 5-11, chw 6-12, pit 5-10, nym 6-11

record since jun 1
home: oak 17-7, tb 21-10, laa 18-11, col 17-11, cle 17-11, mil 17-11...kc 6-19, nym 11-22, tex 12-17
road: hou 21-7, bos 18-9, lad 19-10 ...bal 7-20, det 9-21, min 8-18, sd 13-20

record vs lefty since may 1
mil 13-6, cle 12-8, lad 17-12, hou 19-14
tor 8-20, chw 6-13, sf 12-17

today's starters in 2018
top$$- mikolas 15-7 +5.9u, max 17-6 +4.6, romano 11-10 +3.5
worse- cobb 4-16 -10.4, lopez 7-15 -7.3, vargas 2-9 -6.9


teetering on tiggs, like spot...just need to know more about this turner
 
TUESDAY: 5-2

Sucks tp go 17-6 over 3 days only to give back nearly 2 bells tailing @berryhorse at 0-6. Done with that experiment!
Ohtani in the 3 spot too bad that spot is reserved for trout
7-14 / 3 HR / 7 RBI

WEDNESDAY:
  • 951 Cincinnati Reds +185
  • 955 Philadelphia Phillies +145 velasquez only allowed over 2 runs twice in L10 none in L6
  • 959 St. Louis Cardinals -114 https://goo.gl/EgxHdn
  • 966 Los Angeles Angels -150 https://goo.gl/dait7K
  • 967 Boston Red Sox -137 jays suck vs lefty and johnson has been superb in 10 starts this year(10 er)
  • 969 Minnesota Twins +183 https://goo.gl/22Ycwf
  • 972 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +135 gotta ride rays at home vs these scrubs..may add ml too
  • 977 Los Angeles Dodgers -159 https://goo.gl/CQvB98
  • 977 Los Angeles Dodgers/Oakland Athletics Under 7½ +105 https://goo.gl/8LPLM6
Johnson overcame 4 earned runs in five innings Thursday to get win 15-7 vs Yankees. Johnson is 2-0 w/ 3.94 ERA in 3 starts at Toronto. Hauschild pitched well in relief in his first game in the majors in over 15 months Thursday, 4 hits, 5 k's in six scoreless of a 7-3 win at Seattle. Hauschild will make his 6th career appearance but first start on today, I'm guessing it wont be pretty as sox are best beat, best road team, best offense and on another roll.

Stephenson has been on a roll at AAA Louisville, 6-0 w/ 1.23 ERA , 23 hits in 44 innings over last 7 starts to earn callup back to show, dGrom 8-14 this year and the slump even goes back to last year as he's 11-20 -16+ units(league worse) over last 365 days..I'll take a chance at these odds

randoms...

monday records
cle 14-3, bos 11-3, hou 12-5, nyy 10-5
az 3-12, tor 4-13, kc 4-12, bal 5-11, sd 5-10

record since jun 1
home: tb 22-10, oak 17-8, laa 19-11...kc 6-20, nym 11-23, tex 13-17
road: bos 19-9, lad 20-10 ...bal 7-21, det 9-22, min 9-18

record vs lefty since may 1

tor 8-21, laa 7-18, kc 8-18

today's starters in 2018
top$$- chacin 16-8 +8.3u, gallardo 7-1 +8, severino 18-5 +6.6, gonzalex 15-7 +6.4
worse- clevinger 8-14 -11.5, deGrom 8-14 -10.6, kershaw 8-8 -8.4, cashner 6-15 -6.2

L365
chacin 21-12 +11.6u..#1 money starter
severino 27-9 +11.1..#2
degrom 11-20 -16.1u..#1 fade
 
WEDNESDAY 5-6

Meh. I can live with bad night like this, Kersh pitched well enough(2-2 into 8th) but relief and defense cost doyers late. Fiers impressive again. Mets under was head shaker as reds shutout and still goes over.

THURSDAY:
  • 905 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +120 dodgers hit lefties well
  • 905 Los Angeles Dodgers -124 https://goo.gl/4ncpWJ
  • 905 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Under 10½ -105
  • 910 Cleveland Indians -1½ +100 https://goo.gl/G4bAMv
  • 912 New York Yankees -1½ -117 bombers return home after sweeping sox..maybe starting a roll
  • 913 Boston Red Sox -156 sox keep rolling, porcelo another one having great year
Dodgers one of the best road teams this year at 31-22 and they avg .5 more runs per game vs lefties, plus they have beat rox 7 of last 10.

Gibson takes no shit from Nats

Lindor walks off twinks

randoms...

thursday records
atl 8-2, hou 8-2, nyy 8-4, bos 11-6, wa 7-4
tor 3-9, bal 4-11, sd 3-8

record since jun 1
home: nyy 16-7, tb 22-11, cle 18-12, mil 18-12...kc 6-20, nym 11-23, tex 13-17
road: bos 20-9, lad 20-11 ...bal 8-21, min 9-19, sd 14-21

record vs lefty since may 1
bos 15-8, lad 18-12, hou 20-14
pit 10-17

today's starters in 2018
top$$- porcello 16-7 +7.4u, sanchez 9-5 +6.2, happ 13-8 +3.5
worse- verlander 14-10 -11, gio 9-12 -6.7, hess 2-8 -5.5

L365
porcello 22-11 +7.7u..#11 money starter
 
gonna roll with bravos too

Bravos are simply playing better ball now. They've won 8 of 10 and have maybe their best starter on the hill today, Sanchez beat the nats a couple weeks back and this time he faces gio who has gifted the current bravos lineup an average .851 OPS and .295 BA. ATL is 8-2 on thurs, 24-15 this year in day games and they need to finish this series strong!
 
Stripling first start off DL. He hasn’t looked sharp since end of June. Hate fading my team but I don’t trust him right now, heard they might move him back to the bullpen. At least one of us will be on the right side in this one today.

Do agree on Red Sox though!
 
Stripling coming off the DL because of his toe so do we just assume his shitty form prior was because of his toe? And that heals in 10 days? Anderson has been the victim of ROX pen, he pitches great and the pen comes in and gives it all away. I’m actually leaning over 10.5
 
also Strip about a 5 ERA off 6+ and he looked like a dead man last 2 starts
Stripling coming off the DL because of his toe so do we just assume his shitty form prior was because of his toe? And that heals in 10 days? Anderson has been the victim of ROX pen, he pitches great and the pen comes in and gives it all away. I’m actually leaning over 10.5
Stripling first start off DL. He hasn’t looked sharp since end of June. Hate fading my team but I don’t trust him right now, heard they might move him back to the bullpen. At least one of us will be on the right side in this one today.

Do agree on Red Sox though!


Good info from all of you thanks. That's an inherit risk of numbers/sdql capping, that it doesn't factor in situations and a lot of times I get lazy and just follow the numbers/trends. I'm already vested in doyers 3 ways to Sunday so I'll be hoping for the best. :shake:
 
THURS 3-4

Another weak but not terrible night. Strip pitched well as did anderson and they both exited after 6 with a 1-1 tie. Baez blew up quick but LAD big fly paid off in long run. There is a lot of power in that lineup.

FRIDAY:
  • 960 Colorado Rockies +107
  • 964 San Francisco Giants -1½ +160
  • 964 San Francisco Giants -135 https://goo.gl/dait7K POD
  • 967 Boston Red Sox -183 https://goo.gl/SDK8oW
  • 967 Boston Red Sox/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 -105
  • 969 Tampa Bay Rays -113 https://goo.gl/b6AXs9 despite friday records opposite
  • 974 Chicago White Sox +136
  • 974 Chicago White Sox +1½ -125
I'm definitely still stalking the yanks and also very close to play leake as dude just cashes...but cole is strong too...still I would prefer get 2-1 instead of laying'

If you look at cle this year as away fav, they lose money in 3 different situations; after a win, in division, and at night
These losses show on ML and RL and surprisingly all situation profit on the under wager
all 3 situations apply tonight fwiw
View attachment 34047

randoms...

friday records
tor 13-6, mil 13-6, pit 13-6, az 12-6
det 5-13, sd 6-13, atl 6-13, kc 6-12, tb 6-12, chw 6-11


record since jun 1
home: nyy 17-7, cubs 20-10, laa 20-11...kc 7-20, sd 6-17, bal 10-19, chw 13-18
road: az 20-9, bos 20-10, lad 21-11, oak 21-11 ...tb 7-19, min 9-20, wa 9-19, nym 8-15


record vs lefty since may 1

nyy 17-5
tor 8-22, laa 8-18, kc 9-18, pit 11-17


today's starters in 2018
top$$- leake 15-8 +9.6u, cole 17-6 +7.9, eflin 9-6 +4.7, anderson 6-3 +4.3, holland 11-10 +4.3
worse- hendricks 10-13 -11, maeda 8-11 -9.8, urena 6-16 -8.4, bundy 8-13 -5.7


L365
leake 19-12 +9u..#6 money starter
snell 18-12 +6.8..#16


hendricks 17-18 -10.4u..#8 fade

jus need to get a grip :D

View attachment 34048
 
FRIDAY 9-0 :breakdance:

That's not bad at all...

SATURDAY:
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds +136 will ride home dog here as ray not impressive at all
  • 910 Colorado Rockies +132 freeland @ home plus juice..wow, dude has allowed 29 runs in 15 starts
  • 912 San Diego Padres +184 back to back for pads? https://goo.gl/thxyFX
  • 925 Seattle Mariners +184 same reasons as yesterday, stros not good vs good teams and leblac just wins
  • 927 Oakland Athletics +137 e.jack has been great, allowing only 15 runs in 8 starts this year, skaggs been off 10 days since shelling vs rays
I know thats all dogs..woof woof, but I got favs up my sleeve. Gotta like CLE, BOS, NYY just not the chalk, waiting hoping for better numbers or may just parlay them...also stalking at least a couple totals including unders in col and la

randoms...

saturday records
bos 14-5, nyy 13-6, cubs 14-7, phi 11-6, oak 12-7, hou 12-7
bal 4-16, kc 7-14, nym 6-12, chw 7-12, tor 7-11

record since jun 1
home: nyy 17-8, cubs 21-10, laa 21-11, cin 18-12...kc 7-21, sd 7-17, bal 10-20, chw 14-18
road: bos 21-10, az 20-10, lad 21-12, oak 21-12 ...tb 8-19, min 9-21, wa 9-20, nym 9-15

record vs lefty since may 1

lad 19-12, hou 20-15
bal 11-16, pit 11-18

today's starters in 2018
top$$- lester 17-6 +9.7u, price 16-6 +9, nola 16-7 +8.3, freeland 14-9 +6.4, leblanc 12-6 +6, jackson 6-2 +5
worse- roarke 8-14 -9.4, shields 8-16 -6.9, flaherty 7-11 -5.7, ray 6-8 -5.1

L365
price 16-6 +9u..#6 money starter
lester 22-11 +8.3..#10
nola 20-12 +7.9..#15


lets get down to brass taxes and figure this shit out
View attachment 34066
 
Mr. P......solid capping yesterday buddy...…..continued success with all your action today...……indy
 
Nice card yesterday brother. Damn work had me caught up and threw off my whole night so I wasn’t able to cash. Of course I tried to hit em up late and fell short on philly. I am all over Tribe today. This cubs game is tough because I feel like Washington has sort of turned it around. Think I am going to go on Wash with you, even though Saturdays are good to the Cubs. Don’t think I can ride SD tnite with you, because I gotta chase yesterdays money, haha. At least one of us will win there!
 
SATURDAY 5-2

I picked all dogs on sides and went 5-1, missed my one total, but would have hit both unders I mentioned if I would have got back to play them...also all 3 big favs I mentioned won easily. Not bad at all.

SUNDAY:

Unbelievably I got no hits for today. I got 28 set querries I run every day and sometimes modify them a bit. None produced a single play today...thats a first. I'm sure I'll figure out some plays later.

randoms...
hou 2-9 last 11 at home :shocked:


hill, kuechel, rodriguez and sale all what I consider red hot starters( avg less than 2 runs per start over last 10)

sale/sox probably easy $$ but 340 is tough to click, likely I'll have something on hill and maybe hou

sunday records
bos 15-4, atl 12-4, lad 13-6, sf 13-6, oak 12-7
mil 4-14, kc 5-12, det 6-13, tex 6-13, col 6-12, cin 7-12


record since jun 1
home: nyy 18-8, cubs 21-11, laa 21-12...kc 7-22, sd 7-18, bal 10-22, chw 14-19
road: bos 23-10, az 20-11, oak 22-12, lad 21-13 ...laa 8-20, tb 9-19, min 10-21, wa 10-20, nym 9-16


record vs lefty since may 1

nyy 17-6, col 20-10
nym 6-15, bal 11-17, sea 13-17


today's starters in 2018
top$$- godley 14-9 +5.5u, rodriguez 8-3 +5.1, snydergaard 10-5 +3.8
worse- cobb 4-17 -11.4, weaver 11-12 -5.6, hamels 9-13 -3.3


L365
no top pitchers today money wise..but here's 3 good starters
carrasco 21-10 +4.1u
sale 19-13 -5.4u
max 23-10 +1.7u


cobb 8-19 -9.2u..#13 fade

Sorry no pick yet, so I'll give you a pic instead

View attachment 34082
mrs tom brady...not bad at all
 
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