Week 2

scdoggy

Moderator (Honorary)
NCAA YTD
Sides/Totals 6-4 -.66 units
ML Dogs 0-2 -3 units


Got things off to a solid start Thursday but had a rough time on Saturday. Really don't regret many of the plays except Ohio. The VT first half would have been fine if not for the ST lapses, and Vandy gave Ole Piss plenty of fight for most of the game.

My two biggest leans early were Tenny over and Temple. I've soured on Temple and scratched that one of the list but locked in the other one before this goes higher:

Tennessee/Wky over 56.5 -110 two units
add two more on Sat at over 58 -110


I really think the Vols absolutely crush this team, but I see a lot of smart guys on the other side, so I'm a bit spooked. Tenny has a very solid offensive line that should be able to impose their will against the Hilltoppers whose entire defensive line has only 7 career starts. Petrino will certainly have a wrinkle or two up his sleeve and won't lie down on offense. I expect points here to come fairly easily and be in a nice position by half.

Southern Miss getting over 4 scores vs Nebby is absurd. I'm getting some of that now:

Southern Miss +28.5 -110 one unit

Southern Miss/Nebraska over 59.5 three units

Huskers bring in what could be their best receiving crew and O line in years, with Martinez at the helm while still having issues on D. Southern Miss was #2 on Steele's Most Improved Teams list and I think they stay relatively competitive in this one.

My other leans at this point are:

ND ML - don't understand why Michigan is favored. Gotta read some writeups from the guys here who are closer to these teams. Doesn't make sense to me
SDSt/OSU under - 54.5 - Want to wait and see what this line does but this number is 3 pts high and I'd play this at anything over 51...
Toledo +17 - Rockets getting too many again

I like Texas this week but that hook has me scared, especially in that altitude. I'm warming to a Tex/Oregon ML parlay and will probably do it.
FAU/ECU First half over 28 -110 one unit
ND +165 one unit
SDST/tOSU under 56 -107 two units
Wake/BC 2nd half under 24.5 -140 three units
Fla/MIA Under 48 -110 two units
Duke/Memphis over 54 -105 two units





 
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FAU/ECU First half over 28 -110 one unit

Not sure I trust ECU to bury the bone late, but 4 scores in the first half seems reasonable with these defenses (or lack of)...
 
was a play I was looking at too but having hard time pulling trigger.

GL tonight
 
ND +165 one unit

I still think the wrong team is favored after looking at this one from all sides. Just don't see how Michigan scores against this defense....

SDST/tOSU Under 56 -107 two units


Apparently I have the Aztecs defense rated a lot higher than most. They have a very strong D-line, return 7 of last year's 8 linebackers and DB's that should keep this game well under 50. Their offense meanwhile may not score 10 points this week.
 
Sat adds:

Two more on the over in Knoxville at 58 -110 - total of 4 units on this
FLA/MIA Under 48 -110 - two units. Defenses are the story here.
 
Thanks Jimmy - you'll like this one. Borrowed from your card:

Duke/Memphis over 54 -105 two units
 
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