WEEK 2

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Rutgers -23' W
Bama -30' L
ECU +2 W
Michigan +7' L
NW -1 / +2' L
Arkansas +7' L OUCH
Virginia +2/ML W
COL +7' L

smaller

Kansas -6' L
Cal +10' W
Ark St -6' L
Kan St -9' L
VT -16' W
Oregon -19' L

small

OU -27' L
TT ML L
Ducks TT over 39' L
Baylor +14' W
SMU -5 2H L



leans UTSA ..... SDSU >6 .....AF <3' .....App St (1H?) ..... GASO .... Troy ?? ...... CLT?? ..... ULL
 
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What the line (should) be - without regard to wagering.....

Typically useful in that it suggests, not only what the opener will be - but most importantly which way it will move. Seems like most guys still just bet whenever they're ready. One reason is because they have no idea what the line should be - and which way it will move.
>> much tougher in every regard today - used to be much more consistent and predictable - I used to be wrong on just a few (movement) - now 10+ or more sometimes - blow outs I don't worry about.


You'll have to adjust yourself after the games are played. Usually no more than 2 points or so (each team) - but this early with all the changes maybe up to 5, even 7. So with 2 extremes - maybe a 7-10 point adjustment ffs. Rest assured - everybody is guessing these days, oddsmakers included.

Adjusted a bit already - left SMU - Hawaii alone pretty much (I'm ultra conservative with week to week adjustments)
Rutgers
Jax St
WM
CCaro!




FRI 9/6


W ILLINOIS
6:00
INDIANA -40

301 BYU
7:00 p.m.
302 SMU -13
* Ponies > BYE

303 DUKE
9:00 p.m.
304 NORTHWESTERN -2
* Duke won 38-14 LY



SAT 9/7

305 GEORGIA TECH -1'
12:00 p.m.
306 SYRACUSE

307 KANSAS ST -12'
12:00 p.m.
308 TULANE
* KSU > Zona - TU > @OU

309 BOWLING GREEN
12:00 p.m.
310 PENN ST -35
* PSU @WV/BYE - JF 24-14 NC

311 TROY
12:00 p.m.
312 MEMPHIS -10
* UM > @ Fla St - TU - @Iowa
$ UM 6/19 HF

313 PITTSBURGH
12:00 p.m.
314 CINCINNATI -2'
*P > WVirg

315 AKRON
12:00 p.m.
316 RUTGERS -30
* RU - Howard/BYE
$$ SCHIANO monster in this spot - he knows the spread

317 ARMY
12:00 p.m.
318 FAU -1
* A > bye - FAU @SPARTY/FIU

319 TEXAS -2
12:00 p.m.
320 MICHIGAN

321 ARKANSAS
12:00 p.m.
322 OKLAHOMA ST -9'
*Hogs great RD - fade Gundy in this spot

323 CALIFORNIA
3:00 p.m.
324 AUBURN -10


325 JACKSONVILLE ST
3:30 p.m.
326 LOUISVILLE -23'
* L > BYE

327 TEMPLE
3:30 p.m.
328 NAVY -12

329 BAYLOR
3:30 p.m. NC game
330 UTAH -16

331 SOUTH CAROLINA
3:30 p.m.
332 KENTUCKY -6'
*SC won 47-6 LY!
** K > GEORGIA

333 CHARLOTTE
3:30 p.m.
334 NORTH CAROLINA -23

335 NORTHERN ILLINOIS
3:30 p.m.
336 NOTRE DAME -32

337 EASTERN MICHIGAN
3:30 p.m.
338 WASHINGTON -30
* W > WAZZU

339 MASSACHUSETTS
3:30 p.m.
340 TOLEDO -16

341 IOWA ST
3:30 p.m.
342 IOWA -2'
*ISU > BYE

343 MICHIGAN ST
3:30 p.m.
344 MARYLAND -9'

345 UTSA -3
4:00 p.m.
346 TEXAS ST
*UTSA > TEXAS

347 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
4:15 p.m.
348 OLE MISS -40
* Ole Miss > @WF

349 MARSHALL
4:30 p.m.
350 VIRGINIA TECH -22

351 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -2'
6:00 p.m.
352 FIU

353 EAST CAROLINA -2
6:00 p.m.
354 OLD DOMINION
* ECU > App St > Liberty > UTSA - ODU off S Caro/VT

355 SOUTH ALABAMA -5
6:00 p.m.
356 OHIO

357 SAM HOUSTON ST
6:30 p.m.
358 UCF -25
*UCF > @TCU

359 SOUTH FLORIDA
7:00 p.m.
360 ALABAMA -32
* A > Wisky

361 BUFFALO
7:00 p.m.
362 MISSOURI -40
*M > BColl

363 VIRGINIA
7:00 p.m.
364 WAKE FOREST -1'

365 KANSAS -7
7:00 p.m.
366 ILLINOIS

367 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -2
7:00 p.m.
368 NEVADA

369 SAN JOSE ST
7:00 p.m.
370 AIR FORCE -7
*AF > Baylor

371 UAB -12
7:00 p.m.
372 ULM
*UAB > @Ark

373 TULSA
7:00 p.m.
374 ARKANSAS ST -8
*T > OKIE ST - ASU > @Mich > @Iowa St


375 LOUISIANA -17
7:00 p.m.
376 KENNESAW ST
*L > BYE

377 NC STATE
7:30 p.m. Charlotte, NC
378 TENNESSEE -8

379 WESTERN MICHIGAN
7:30 p.m.
380 OHIO ST -40
* O > bye

381 COLORADO
7:30 p.m.
382 NEBRASKA -6'

383 HOUSTON
7:45 p.m.
384 OKLAHOMA -27'
*OU > Tulane

385 APP ST
8:00 p.m.
386 CLEMSON -20
* C - GA/BYE

387 BOISE ST
10:00 p.m.
388 OREGON -25
*O > @ Oreg St !!
B @ GASO / BYE

389 TEXAS TECH -4
10:00 p.m.
390 WASHINGTON ST
$ MUST WIN for TT
W > WASHINGTON!!

391 LIBERTY -18
10:15 p.m.
392 NEW MEXICO ST

393 OREGON ST -8
10:30 p.m.
394 SAN DIEGO ST
* OSU > OREGON

395 MISSISSIPPI ST
10:30 p.m.
396 ARIZONA ST -1'
* MUST WIN for ASU

397 UTAH ST
11:00 p.m.
398 USC -27
*USC - LSU/BYE > @ MICH

*******************************

CHATTANOOGA
6:00P
GA STATE -5

ALBANY
5:00P
W VIRGINIA -28

R ISLAND
11:00A
MINNY -28

MERRIMACK
11:00A
UCONN -21

MCNEESE
11:45A
TEXAS A&M -55

TENN TECH
1:00P
GEORGIA -65 ha
* G - Clem/Kentucky

MIZZOU STATE
1:00P
BALL STATE -4
*BSU - 1st game

ST FRANCIS
1:30P
KENT STATE -9'
* K- @Pitt/@Vols > @ Penn St wtf

UTAH TECH
2:00P
UNLV -35
*UNLV @Hou/@Kan

S DAKOTA
2:30P
WISKY -21
*W - ALABAMA

DUQUESNE
2:30P
B COLLEGE -32

IDAHO
2:30P
WYOMING -10

FLA A&M
5:00P
MIAMI -38

G WEBB
5:00P
JMU -28

SAMFORD
6:00P
FLORIDA -35

BILL & MARY
6:00P
C CARO -17

EKU
6:00P
WKU -18

CAL POLY
6:00P
TREE -34

N COLO
6:00P
COL STATE -30

SELA
6:00P
S MISS -13' ?

TX SOUTHERN
6:00P
RICE -35

NICHOLLS
6:30P
LSU -45

ALCORN ST
6:30P
VANDY -23

SFA
6:30P
NORTH TX -18

LONG ISLAND
7:00P
TCU -45

S UTAH
8:00P
UTEP -4

N ARIZONA
9:00P
ZONA -34

SAC ST
9:00P
FRESNO ST -13




LEANS

strong

ARKANSAS
TROY
RUTGERS
Kentucky
ECU
ARK STATE
APP STATE!

solid

UTSA
N Illinois
Army as dog
Cinn
BAMA
UCF
Kansas
Colorado?
TTech

maybe

EMU
Iowa State
Nevada
RICE
S MISS
Ball St
SDSU?
OU?
SMU ??
 
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Couple really good spots.

Can we get 10 with the Hogs?

Texas State wins outright. Huge look ahead with brand new team with the beep beeps

Without RB, like Cincy too. Ideally at a PK

Really want SDSU with awful spot for Oregon state and I like Lewis, but true frosh starting at QB. If 7+, that’s a play

Like UK too but want to see how Cocks QB throws it today. UK front 7 borderline elite
 
satnightfever05 said:
Couple really good spots.

Can we get 10 with the Hogs?

Texas State wins outright. Huge look ahead with brand new team with the beep beeps

Without RB, like Cincy too. Ideally at a PK

Really want SDSU with awful spot for Oregon state and I like Lewis, but true frosh starting at QB. If 7+, that’s a play

Like UK too but want to see how Cocks QB throws it today. UK front 7 borderline elite
Click to expand...
Oook. So Cocks can’t throw the ball. UK anything under 7 is a play
 
added small - at MB

Hokies -16'



will play - waiting on better #

Hogs at 10
Michigan at 7
Iowa St at 3
UTSA at 3
ECU at 3?/ML
Virginia at 3/ML
App St at 18?
 
bookieassassin said:
small at BM

Michigan +7'


*locking in at 7' - will add if it rises

Biggest (true) road game crowd Texas faces usually? - Iowa State at 62K. TALL order here.
Click to expand...

Won at night in Tuscaloosa last season. 50 players on that team suiting up Saturday. There will be a lot of Texas people at this game but it's no easy task to win in Ann Arbor, to your point. Obvious advantage for the Horns with the early kick.

Michigan has better lines, overall. Texas with an obvious (very big) skill position advantage. Michigan would be best served to just run it, and run it more. Shorten the game. Guessing that's the game plan.

Line should at 4, not 6.5 or 7. Feels like a 20-16 type game. U45 feels too easy.

GL on your plays.
 
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Frank Costanza said:
Won at night in Tuscaloosa last season. 50 players on that team suiting up Saturday. There will be a lot of Texas people at this game but it's no easy task to win in Ann Arbor, to your point. Obvious advantage for the Horns with the early kick.

Michigan has better lines, overall. Texas with an obvious (very big) skill position advantage. Michigan would be best served to just run it, and run it more. Shorten the game. Guessing that's the game plan.

Line should at 4, not 6.5 or 7. Feels like a 20-16 type game. U45 feels too easy.

GL on your plays.
Click to expand...

Colorado State defense and Michigan defense are worlds apart. Dumb line by the books and jmo. Huge over reaction.
 
HUNT said:
Colorado State defense and Michigan defense are worlds apart. Dumb line by the books and jmo. Huge over reaction.
Click to expand...
Last year michigan had similar games vs Fresno. I mean didn't look like world beaters vs bg or several others. They played to comp but is game 1 under a new regime a spot to play down cause I don't ? Bama didn't think so. And clear deficiencies in Michigan compared to last year in scheme and talent for sure.

At current prbly a stay away.
 
EPOCHAL LOCK PLAY


Ducks TT over 39'

at MB -120 - ha

*will add Ducks ,<20 - haven't decided on Boise money yet - reckon it only goes up?
 
I like Oregon here. Game played in Oregon at night, and after how horrible they played last week I would have to think they would be going all out against Boise State. It is one of my plays this week, but I also agree 20 or less.
 
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EL CAPO said:
Last year michigan had similar games vs Fresno. I mean didn't look like world beaters vs bg or several others. They played to comp but is game 1 under a new regime a spot to play down cause I don't ? Bama didn't think so. And clear deficiencies in Michigan compared to last year in scheme and talent for sure.

At current prbly a stay away.
Click to expand...
I believe the UM game played out exactly how it should have an was alway going to. A dominant defense (who ended up putting the game away) an a offense breaking in new players everywhere. Can UM find enough success on the ground to help Warren an his receivers find success, If they can find some success in the run game I think the 7.5 line is a good one. If they can't how long can the defense hang in there before Texas starts scoring? Think this game plays out somewhere in the area of 27-17
 
PRIMETIMEE21 said:
I like Oregon here. Game played in Oregon at night, the first home game of the year, and after how horrible they played at Idaho last week I would have to think they would be going all out against Boise State. It is one of my plays this week, but I also agree 20 or less.
Click to expand...
The game last week was at Autzen.
 
being more aggressive this week - playing teams I had circled beforehand for one unit or more - regardless of line movement

bumped up NW at -1 (-113 at BM)
added Virginia +2 (-112 ) at Heritage + ML
small play on Baylor (1H is 8' at BM - maybe better bet)
Bumped up Hogs at 7' - and Deion at 7'


Some regrets :

Cal I still like but RB Ott is ??, and 14 will be available
Illinois (MIGHT) be a live dog here ??? - line movement makes little sense tho
MAYBE too eager on Kan State ......


Week 2 is usually tough - the best guideline 100% is to FADE the overreactions to week 1 - NOT PLAY THEM ffs....

That's the beauty of playing Michigan at 7' - months ago line was 1'/2 - few weeks ago it was 3' or so - after week 1 it has jumped SIX POINTS total..... line should be 3'/4 max. Texas -7' is a stupid bet - you're actually chasing the overreaction...........it may in fact work, but dumb.
>> what has happened to cause this huge jump?

Texas whipped the #115 team in the country - and lost their #1 RB. Michigan jacked around with Fresno, and has QB issues. People LOVE Texas and Sark (why?) - and really want them to do well - even tho they've had what 2 good/great years the last 14 - and lost about 13 NFL players from that fine 12-2 team (Sark was 13-12 before that). On the road - he's 50% SU / 40% ATS over his career. A great PLANNER - not so great in-game IMO.

I don't love Michigan here - but I'm getting a heavily reduced price on a team that is tough as hell to beat at home (23-0) - that should be able to run and move the chains / speed up the game / ugly this thing up. And I know for sure their D is gonna get after their ass - HARD. Crowd will no doubt be a factor - this ain't 50K on the B12 road. If Horns manage to pull away late - I seriously will care very little - I've done my work here, and won't play a down.
 
In theory that game for me is an ideal dog/under correlation. I have UT tied into NW on a ML parlay but will absolutely be looking at taking points with UM for a middle if NW wins tomorrow night. No doubt chasing UT from Summer line to 7.5 makes zero sense win or lose
 
bookieassassin said:
being more aggressive this week - playing teams I had circled beforehand for one unit or more - regardless of line movement

bumped up NW at -1 (-113 at BM)
added Virginia +2 (-112 ) at Heritage + ML
small play on Baylor (1H is 8' at BM - maybe better bet)
Bumped up Hogs at 7' - and Deion at 7'


Some regrets :

Cal I still like but RB Ott is ??, and 14 will be available
Illinois (MIGHT) be a live dog here ??? - line movement makes little sense tho
MAYBE too eager on Kan State ......


Week 2 is usually tough - the best guideline 100% is to FADE the overreactions to week 1 - NOT PLAY THEM ffs....

That's the beauty of playing Michigan at 7' - months ago line was 1'/2 - few weeks ago it was 3' or so - after week 1 it has jumped SIX POINTS total..... line should be 3'/4 max. Texas -7' is a stupid bet - you're actually chasing the overreaction...........it may in fact work, but dumb.
>> what has happened to cause this huge jump?

Texas whipped the #115 team in the country - and lost their #1 RB. Michigan jacked around with Fresno, and has QB issues. People LOVE Texas and Sark (why?) - and really want them to do well - even tho they've had what 2 good/great years the last 14 - and lost about 13 NFL players from that fine 12-2 team (Sark was 13-12 before that). On the road - he's 50% SU / 40% ATS over his career. A great PLANNER - not so great in-game IMO.

I don't love Michigan here - but I'm getting a heavily reduced price on a team that is tough as hell to beat at home (23-0) - that should be able to run and move the chains / speed up the game / ugly this thing up. And I know for sure their D is gonna get after their ass - HARD. Crowd will no doubt be a factor - this ain't 50K on the B12 road. If Horns manage to pull away late - I seriously will care very little - I've done my work here, and won't play a down.
Click to expand...
Well said brother man…
 
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