WEEK 2

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
Happy Christmas morning boys .....

IMO it's a huge help to watch games with a PURPOSE - to decide what teams you might want to play week 2, and watch this week's games with that WEEK 2 matchup in mind. Key is deciding what number you want, and WHEN can you get it. Opener, or right before kick-off?

So here I try to decide what the line 'should be' - ignoring wagering. Focusing on Vegas numbers, fine tuned with analytics guys, and mine (not much this week). Before the games are played, and this early in the year, it's tough to be really accurate - but typically I try to hit where the line will 'settle' on Tues./Wed., instead of where it will open.

I plan on having a little too much fun today - so you'll have to adjust these yourself Sunday morning ... typically 1-2 points, but in some cases maybe 3 or more this early. (eg. Hawaii week 0)


I listed the previous game, and next week's game - with a note or two. Format from NC Sports, didn't adjust times.
* Penn St is off @ Purdue, with a road game with Auburn on deck - HC Franklin stinks off a SU loss, but prepares his team well off a W - covering 33/47. I plan on hitting that opener.


FRIDAY 9/9

315 LOUISVILLE @Cuse/FSU
7:30 p.m.
316 UCF -1' FCS/@FAU

317 BOISE ST -25 @Beavs/FCS
9:00 p.m.
318 NEW MEXICO


SATURDAY 9/10

319 ARKANSAS ST
12:00 p.m.
320 OHIO ST -50 ND/Toledo

321 NORTH CAROLINA -8' @App St /bye
12:00 p.m.
322 GEORGIA ST @SCaro/CLT

323 OHIO
12:00 p.m.
324 PENN ST -32 @Purdue/@Auburn
$ JF 33-14 off SU win

325 UTSA HOU/@TX
12:00 p.m.
326 ARMY -2' @CC/Nova
$ Army 29-3 SU at home

327 SOUTHERN MISS
12:00 p.m.
328 MIAMI, FL -25 FCS/@ A&M

329 DUKE Temple W /FCS
12:00 p.m.
330 NORTHWESTERN -10 Bye/FCS
$ Duke 4-1 SU/ATS series

331 MISSOURI LTech/FCS
12:00 p.m.
332 KANSAS ST -8 FCS/Tulane

333 SOUTH CAROLINA GaSt/ GEORGIA
12:00 p.m.
334 ARKANSAS -12 Cinn/FCS

335 ALABAMA -16' UtahSt/ULM >Vandy
12:00 p.m.
336 TEXAS ULM/UTSA

337 WAKE FOREST -10 FCS/Liberty
12:00 p.m.
338 VANDERBILT FCS/@ NIll

339 SOUTH ALABAMA FCS/@ UCLA
1:00 p.m.
340 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -8 @ OkieSt/FCS
$ CM 12-3 SU/ATS home

341 WESTERN MICHIGAN -3 @SPARTY/PITT
2:00 p.m.
342 BALL ST @Tenn/
$ BSU won 45-20 LY

343 MARSHALL
2:30 p.m.
344 NOTRE DAME -20' @ OSU/Cal

345 MARYLAND -20? Buff/SMU
3:30 p.m.
346 CHARLOTTE FAU L - FCS L / @ GaST

347 TENNESSEE Ball St/Akron
3:30 p.m.
348 PITTSBURGH -2 WV/@WM

349 MEMPHIS -5 @Miss St/Ark St
3:30 p.m.
350 NAVY FCS/bye

351 COLORADO TCU/@Minn
3:30 p.m.
352 AIR FORCE -13 FCS/Wyo

353 APPALACHIAN ST NCaro/Troy
3:30 p.m.
354 TEXAS A&M -18' FCS/Miami
$ Jimbo 12-3 NC / 14-7 HFav

355 WASHINGTON ST FCS/Col St
3:30 p.m.
356 WISCONSIN -18' FCS/NMSU

357 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
4:00 p.m.
358 COLORADO ST -2' @MICH/@Wazzu

359 AKRON + FCS - @ Tenn/
4:00 p.m.
360 MICHIGAN ST -38 WMich/@Wash

361 VIRGINIA -1' FCS/ODU
4:00 p.m.
362 ILLINOIS Wyo - Indy / BYE

363 UNLV W -bye/NTX
4:00 p.m.
364 CALIFORNIA -12' FCS/@ NDame

365 HOUSTON -1' UTSA/Kan
4:00 p.m.
366 TEXAS TECH FCS/@NCST

367 IOWA ST SEMO/Ohio
4:00 p.m.
368 IOWA -7 SDSU/Nev

369 OLD DOMINION VT W!!/@ Virg
6:00 p.m.
370 EAST CAROLINA -9 NCST/FCS

371 KANSAS FCS/@Hou
6:00 p.m.
372 WEST VIRGINIA -13 @Pitt L/FCS
$ Road team 7-1

373 UAB FCS/Ga SO
6:00 p.m.
374 LIBERTY P @Smiss/@WF

375 KENTUCKY Mia,O /FCS
7:00 p.m. P
376 FLORIDA UTAH/USF

377 MASSACHUSETTS
7:00 p.m.
378 TOLEDO -28 FCS/@ OHIO ST !

379 SYRACUSE -20 Lou/Purdue
7:00 p.m.
380 CONNECTICUT @Utah St - FCS / @ Mich

381 KENT ST @ Wash/FCS
7:00 p.m.
382 OKLAHOMA -34 UTEP/@ NEBRASKA

383 EASTERN MICHIGAN FCS/@ Ariz St
7:00 p.m.
384 LOUISIANA -10 FCS/@Rice

385 NORTHERN ILLINOIS FCS/Vandy
7:00 p.m.
386 TULSA -3 @WYO/FCS

387 FIU
7:00 p.m.
388 TEXAS ST 9' @Nevada/@Bay

389 SAN JOSE ST
7:30 p.m.
390 AUBURN -23 FCS/PENN ST

391 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
7:30 p.m.
392 NEBRASKA -24 N Dakota/OU !!

393 USC -10 Rice/Fresno
7:30 p.m.
394 STANFORD FCS/bye
$ TREE won 42-28 LY

395 ARIZONA ST FCS/E Mich
7:30 p.m.
396 OKLAHOMA ST -12 CM / FCS
$ Gundy 18-5 NC games

397 HAWAII
8:00 p.m.
398 MICHIGAN -42 Col St/UConn

399 BOSTON COLLEGE Rutgers/FCS
8:00 p.m.
400 VIRGINIA TECH -2 ODU L !!/FCS

401 NEW MEXICO ST Nev - @Minn / Wisky
9:00 p.m.
402 UTEP -13 NTX - OU / @ NMex

403 BAYLOR FCS/TXST
10:15 p.m.
404 BYU -2' @USF / @ Oreg

405 OREGON ST Boise/FCS
10:30 p.m.
406 FRESNO ST -2 FCS/@USC
$ Fresn 5-0 v P12

407 MISSISSIPPI ST -15 Mem/@ LSU !!
11:00 p.m.d
408 ARIZONA SDSU/NDSU
 
LEANS

strong - Ga St* Vols UAB


solid - Boise Penn St S Miss Kan St Ark** A&M *** UNLV E Caro Kansas Nebraska


maybe - UCF Duke?? Wazzu Sparty 1H UConn E Mich

* per week 1 results
** if poor W1
*** App St beats NCaro?



Here's what I did week 1, posted at (cough) another inferior site ha
* I might add a few 2H or IG (in-game)


one unit +

Sparty -19 W

0.75 or so

Penn St -3 W
Terps -21
ECaro +10'

0.5 or less

Fla St +3
Ducks +10 1H
NW/Neb 1H under 24' L
S Miss +2' 1H
NW +13' W
N Caro +2
GT TT under 13'

lean/waiting/in-game


ODU TCU Ga St Rutgers Boise W Virg Illinois FAU TxSt USF? Zona??


BOL today boys- I'll be back Sunday afternoon with maybe 4-5 plays - about 10 more I'm afraid later in the week
 
BA--on-board my brother :) CTG will quickly see what a resource you are to this passion of ours...and makes it all shareable--BOL to us, my man!! Looking forward to this season.
 
Welcome to the site BA. I usually have all my following week numbers done by Sunday morning so I can pounce on the BOL opens, as it makes it easy to scroll the card since I’m just looking for variances vs my numbers. Appreciate you taking the time to post your stuff over here. Feel free to check out my thread and post some thoughts, and again welcome to the site.
 
Hey, good to see you over here BA. Very cool, and welcome!
Whenever I'd visit the other place, I always enjoyed reading your posts over the many years. Always respected what you did year in and year out.
 
BA great to see you over here. Always have read your threads and learned a ton. Especially love this thread as gives a good baseline for openers today. thanks again.
 
Much appreciated boys, BOL this week

today/tomorrow have Criminoles +3 (very small) - and Ga Tech TT under 13' (0.50 / -114) .... like Clemson but missed early # - might play live


one unit

S Miss +28
Penn St -26'
Texas A&M -16'


smaller

Boise -17
Air Force -14
Nebraska -21 haha


waiting/maybe

GEORGIA ST +10?
Kan St
C Mich
Tenn < 3
UAB
E Mich +14?
Wazzu ??
UNLV +14?
UCONN
N Illinois
Miss St

all either BO / Bookmaker, or MyBookie - trying them out (aggressive lines)


one unit = 0.75 - 1.25 or so
smaller < 0.5

The answer as to why? - is almost always "I like the SPOT"
>> I'm a spot / regression to the mean - handicapper mostly. Almost all dogs usually, all this chalk making me nervous ha

Spot/role favorable?
Can team A impose their will, OR if dog disrupt what team B likes to do / strip their identity?

Busy today boys sorry, back later ..... watching Ga State , UAB and UNLV lines
 
these lines really jump out at me:

Maryland -27
W. Virginia -13.5
W. Forest -7
E. Michigan +11.5

That's just looking real quick. I'm offshore and it'll take me awhile to dig into my plays.

GL this week!
 
bookieassassin said:
LEANS

strong - Ga St* Vols UAB


solid - Boise Penn St S Miss Kan St Ark** A&M *** UNLV E Caro Kansas Nebraska


maybe - UCF Duke?? Wazzu Sparty 1H UConn E Mich

* per week 1 results
** if poor W1
*** App St beats NCaro?



Here's what I did week 1, posted at (cough) another inferior site ha
* I might add a few 2H or IG (in-game)


one unit +

Sparty -19 W

0.75 or so

Penn St -3 W
Terps -21
ECaro +10'

0.5 or less

Fla St +3
Ducks +10 1H
NW/Neb 1H under 24' L
S Miss +2' 1H
NW +13' W
N Caro +2
GT TT under 13'

lean/waiting/in-game


ODU TCU Ga St Rutgers Boise W Virg Illinois FAU TxSt USF? Zona??


BOL today boys- I'll be back Sunday afternoon with maybe 4-5 plays - about 10 more I'm afraid later in the week
Click to expand...
Damn, great to see you here man. I used to check you out over at blankets, but fuck that place is crazy. Would be great to get some of those other solid guys here. So much less BS here at ctg, and much more intelligent discussion and analysis
 
Hey wassup boys good to see ya .....

Sorry busy and feeling extra old / senile this week... plus depressed at my crap job of misreading early line movement.

Adding

N Illinois +6'
Wazzu +17 smaller

I have no idea why NI continues to be undervalued in this type spot - forget the no D stuff ha - Rocky and co. find a way to cover, and maybe win SU. Bad spot for Tulsa typically - perfect for NI. At -105 at BM. OVER maybe better play. +7 / -120 for nervous types .....

Just a dart / hunch that Wisky just grinds out a tough W- that's it. Wazzu usually tough in this spot - but not a welcoming D for their new O for sure. IMO Wazzu QB is pretty sharp, and can be dangerous if he gets some help here ....
 
bookieassassin said:
Hey wassup boys good to see ya .....

Sorry busy and feeling extra old / senile this week... plus depressed at my crap job of misreading early line movement.

Adding

N Illinois +6'
Wazzu +17 smaller

I have no idea why NI continues to be undervalued in this type spot - forget the no D stuff ha - Rocky and co. find a way to cover, and maybe win SU. Bad spot for Tulsa typically - perfect for NI. At -105 at BM. OVER maybe better play. +7 / -120 for nervous types .....

Just a dart / hunch that Wisky just grinds out a tough W- that's it. Wazzu usually tough in this spot - but not a welcoming D for their new O for sure. IMO Wazzu QB is pretty sharp, and can be dangerous if he gets some help here ....
Click to expand...
"Sorry busy and feeling extra old / senile this week... plus depressed at my crap job of misreading early line movement."

Looks pretty good to me. Southern Miss down to 23.5, A&M 19, Neb 24, AF 18 - maybe little miss on Penn St as I got it at 23.5 Sunday. But GA St did hit 10 on Sunday and UNLV hit 14 too. I didn't hit them unfortunately. Got 8.5 and 13.5 later. So as usual, I think you're doing pretty darn good. Much appreciate your posts. thanks
 
bookieassassin said:
Hey wassup boys good to see ya .....

Sorry busy and feeling extra old / senile this week... plus depressed at my crap job of misreading early line movement.

Adding

N Illinois +6'
Wazzu +17 smaller

I have no idea why NI continues to be undervalued in this type spot - forget the no D stuff ha - Rocky and co. find a way to cover, and maybe win SU. Bad spot for Tulsa typically - perfect for NI. At -105 at BM. OVER maybe better play. +7 / -120 for nervous types .....

Just a dart / hunch that Wisky just grinds out a tough W- that's it. Wazzu usually tough in this spot - but not a welcoming D for their new O for sure. IMO Wazzu QB is pretty sharp, and can be dangerous if he gets some help here ....
Click to expand...
Was thinking about adding NIU too.. fighting Lombardi's don't quit...

Also, can't believe I haven't seen you on Army yet.. UTSA off heart break 3OT loss and @Texas next week.. 11a CST kick for the Roadies against the triple option? Cannot see how they get up here
 
satnightfever05 said:
Was thinking about adding NIU too.. fighting Lombardi's don't quit...

Also, can't believe I haven't seen you on Army yet.. UTSA off heart break 3OT loss and @Texas next week.. 11a CST kick for the Roadies against the triple option? Cannot see how they get up her
Click to expand...

satnightfever05 said:
So is this where all the cool kids are hanging out now? ;)
Click to expand...
Guys that are serious about winning money it looks like to me ... and not here for EGO purposes - hidden motives, etc ..... You'll like it

Like Army, was gonna wait and see how new CUT BLOCK RULES affect their O - inability to knock LB / DBs down, plus penalties maybe .... a killer in their O. But now 3 at BO - so worth at least a small play IMO. UTSA is gonna have to FIGHT their ass off here. BOL buddy
 
Adding

Virginia +4'

smaller
Army. +3
Duke/NW 1H under 28'

Virginia should be favored here - has the much better QB- Illini off draining / tough loss. These games (D/NW) are always ugly - Duke should have a new identity - should be able to slow that mighty NW offense ha. Game total fine - I just like 1H....

More tomorrow....
 
Hey BA, you ever check out any of the FBS v FCS matchups? I love making a killing off those as there is money to be had with those UTR type of games, especially when the lines first open.
 
carolinablue said:
Hey BA, you ever check out any of the FBS v FCS matchups? I love making a killing off those as there is money to be had with those UTR type of games, especially when the lines first open.
Click to expand...
you aren't kidding. last week was fantastic. w&m, bryant, Richmond, SD st, Delaware, Sam hou st...list goes on, all covered. bol
 
one unit


S Miss +28
Penn St -26'
Texas A&M -16'
Ga St +8'
UNLV +13'
N Illinois +6'
E Mich +11


smaller


Boise -17 T
Air Force -14
Nebraska -21
Kansas +14
Wazzu +17
TX / Bama 1H UNDER 34'
TREE TT over 28
UAB / Vols ML

Bumped up EMU

Think Texas is able to compete for awhile, run - move the chains ... THEN Bama overwhelms 2H

Want to fade the derty Trojans- but they might score 60 here ha .... Tree / QB should score plenty

Cheesy ML parlay - 2 I like to win SU / both probably cover...


I should have a few live/2H bets - looking at
BAMA
WF (Vandy 1H not bad)
Terps
Hogs
C Mich
TTech
BC
Fresno
 
passed out / drooling on myself over week 3 lines ....

CB - I've been meaning to dive into FCS for years - those openers are turrible ..... they used to simply use Massey's numbers and hope for the best. I'm still in deep depression over that damn CIRCA releasing really early lines ...... allowing our buddies at BetOnline to steal them ha.

many thanks boys, BOL today - I'll have week 3 stuff up today late
 
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