YTD: 4-2 +1.94 units
Thurs night football was quite possibly the worst NFL game I have seen in the last 15 years, and that's saying something considering the downward spiral the league is in. Sunday offers some opportunities. Waiting on some dogs, that I believe will get an extra 1 -1.5 points during square hour. So far, have gotten down on two:
Dolphins @ Chargers
My line: Chargers -1.5
Play: DOLPHINS +180
Missed the +200's being offered earlier in the week, and seeing +170 to +160 now. I believe we see a "3" on this one come kickoff.
Miami has been in Cali since last Friday, after Irma destroyed their week 1. An extra week for Gase to get Cutler up to par (which if anyone can figure what "par" for Cutler is, I'd be interested to hear it) is a big deal given their history, and the fact that Gase falls from the offensive side of the ball.
The Chargers got their asses kicked in Denver last week, save for some abnormal sequences in the last 10 min of the game. The false final seems to have instilled a false rating on SD. I don't know anymore about them than I did two weeks ago. Sunday's home opener will not provide the Chargers the comforts of home typically built into the line. I have them ranked towards the bottom of my HFA scale, until they prove they actually have a HFA.
Dolphins 23 - Chargers 20
RedSkins @ Rams
Rams -2.5/-3 45.5
My line: Rams -1.5 43.5
Play: UNDER 46
Lean: Redskins @ +155 or better.
The Rams scored 46 pts last week. They scored 44 pts in their previous 4 games COMBINED. Yes Goff looked good on Sunday. He's now looked good in ONE of his SEVEN NFL starts. Todd Gurley looked bad AGAIN, and their leading receiver will now be game planned for. I'm looking for a strong regression from the Rams offense on Sunday.
There is no doubt that Washington had offensive issues last week, largely due to the coordinator change. Throw in a change of cast and responsibilities at WR, and an inability to run the ball, and you lose at home. The focus all week has been on how bad the offense looked, with no mention of how active and disruptive the defense was. The Eagles scored on a 58 yd broken play, and pick 6 by Fletcher Cox. Throw in a ruled fumble against Cousins, which looked like a bad call, and you get 17 points that can't be pinned on the defense.
I don't expect Washington to get the running game against the Rams, and if that's the case then Cousins is likely in for a long game. I don't think the Rams will get a ground game going either, but if the games close, I believe we will see them continue to feed Gurley, rather than keep the ball in Goff's hands. I got this one ending 23-20 - not sure who wins, and will be hunting a Wash ML of +155 or better till kickoff.
Good luck.