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Week 2 What Are We Learning
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
I was really disappointed by the Vikings this week. I wonder if that says anything about the Bears, whom they had edged past in Week 1.
Big statements from Baltimore and Detroit.
2-0 frauds... is Indy one? after trouncing the Dolphins and eking past Denver
Are the Cardinals just addicted to close games? 2-0, both vs weak teams who nearly came from behind by scoring in the waning seconds.
Bears now 0-2 after "winning the offseason"
Jags still look a lot like the second-half-of-2023 team that could dismantle Carolina but got gashed by backup quarterbacks.
Big statements from Baltimore and Detroit.
2-0 frauds... is Indy one? after trouncing the Dolphins and eking past Denver
Are the Cardinals just addicted to close games? 2-0, both vs weak teams who nearly came from behind by scoring in the waning seconds.
Bears now 0-2 after "winning the offseason"
Jags still look a lot like the second-half-of-2023 team that could dismantle Carolina but got gashed by backup quarterbacks.
Frank Costanza
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Brandon Aubrey story continues to be amazing. Kicking 60+ yard FGs without (seemingly) any effort including that 64 yarder yesterday with the game on the line. Never played a down of high school or college football. Soccer guy, Wife is sitting on the couch one Sunday afternoon and sees an NFL kicker blow a FG. "Honey, you could do that better." And he has, and is the the most lethal (kicking) weapon in NFL history. Basically, you get just past the 50 and you're within his range.
Female Jerry Jones in training. Guessing the Colts staff is loving it.
Female Jerry Jones in training. Guessing the Colts staff is loving it.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Worried/Not Worried
Buffalo - Not worried. Allen had his nose broken but they hardly needed to use him. Hammerlock on the East and in the driver's seat for #1 seed.
Patriots - Not worried. Great answers when Miami first took the lead 20-15 and also after their punt return for a TD gave them the lead again. Haven't even unlocked Henderson yet. Should be in the playoff hunt most of the year.
Jets - Worried. Manhandled by the Bills and the loss to Pittsburgh looks a little worse now. Tyrod is a capable backup if Fields misses time. Where is the D?
Dolphins - Worried. Bad pick late by Tua ended their chances. Offense in general looked better but defense is still a shitshow. Schedule does lighten up after the Bills hammer them next week, but these first two games were not exactly against contenders.
Bengals - Worried. 2-0 but now Joe Sheisty will be out three months? Browning will sling it but to both teams. Next four games @Min, @Den, Det, @GB. Yikes.
Ravens - Not Worried. Back to back 40 burgers and they barely used Henry in this one.
Steelers - Worried. Team is allowing 28 a game in their last 9 games. Their problem in a nutshell. They weren't good late last season. They've made a ton of splashy moves that in every case has made them older. They also have the earliest possible bye in Week 5. So, they need some time for all these new pieces to mesh, and then they have to play 13 consecutive games with the 2nd oldest team in the league just to get to wildcard weekend. This is not a recipe for success.
Browns - Not Worried. What is there to worry about? Nobody expected them to win. This is a building year. The rookie QBs will start getting reps. The rookie RBs are already getting reps. The rookie TE is getting reps. The defense was actually pretty good yardage wise against the Ravens.
Colts - Not Worried. You have to be excited about the Colts start. Putting up 473 yards against what is supposed to be a top 3 defense is impressive. Warren is already involved. I did probably 20 mock drafts and seemed to get Taylor about 75% of the time. Didn't get him a single time in any real drafts, dammit.
Jags - Worried. Cupcake opener followed 3 quarters against the backup for the Bengals had all the makings of a 2-0 start. Not sure why Lawrence doesn't seem to be on the same page with BTJ and Hunter yet. Texans, Niners, Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams heading into the week 8 bye, oh my.
Texans - Not Worried. Knew Rams would be a tough opponent. Let's see how they do against Tampa.
Titans - Not Worried. Another team building this year. Cam is showing flashes but is still a rookie. Ayomanor is stepping into the #2 WR role nicely. They had the lead in the third quarter vs Rams.
Chargers - Not Worried. Looked great in Brazil. Let's see how they do in the US tonight.
Raiders - Not Worried. Big week 1 win on the east coast. Stiffer test tonight vs Herbert and Co.
Broncos - Worried. Not a lot worried, but Nix is making mistakes, they didn't get much out of Harvey yet, and the defense got lit up in Indy. Some cracks to repair.
Chiefs - Not Worried. 0-2 and not worried? Well...they looked better against the Eagles despite have limited options on offense. Worthy is probably back next week and Rice in a few more weeks. Kelce has been their biggest problem, knocking out his teammate week 1 and letting a ball clank off his arms for a key pick this week. BUT....the Eagles barely got 200 yards, a big improvement from Week 1. They should handle the Giants and with the exception of Buffalo their toughest games the rest of the year are at home. Mahomes is healthy and running and reinforcements are on their way.
Eagles - Not Worried. Well, maybe a little worried. They're not killing teams but they do enough to win. AJ Brown isn't too involved, have to wonder if he's physically OK. Their schedule...wow. Except for two Giants games it's tough for the team everyone wants a shot at: Rams, Bucs, Broncos, Vikings, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Raiders Commanders and Bills will all get a swing. The have EIGHT more national games coming up.
Commanders - Worried. This is the oldest team in the league. RB is all of the sudden very thin with Robinson and Ekeler gone. Deebo and McLaurin combined are under 10 yards per catch. Daniels can still make magic but the Pack showed a blueprint to contain him. A step backwards this year was not unexpected.
Cowboys - Worried. Not a lot, just a little worried. I expected to see shootouts with Parsons gone but the way it unfolded against the Giants with multiple deep ball plays was troubling. Ironically, they are playing the run just fine. Javonte has been shockingly good. No surprise that Dak is putting up numbers and using CD, Pickens and Ferguson. Suddenly four of the next five (Bears, Jets, Panthers, Commanders) look winnable.
Giants - Not Worried. Bigtime effort from Russ this week. He still can throw the deep ball as well as anyone. Schedule is just too tough to win many. No surprise. Skattebo already getting a good chuck of work, saw him dropped in a bunch of leagues.
Packers - Not Worried. They've looked as good as anyone so far, dammit.
Lions - Not Worried. Got their swagger back taking it out on the Bears. The home/road splits for Goff may still be a thing. TeSlaa is a wizard so far.
Vikings - Worried. McCarthy just doesn't look ready. His throwing motion takes forever and I imagine his ability to read the play is still at a rookie level. Now Jones is dinged along with much of the defense. They do get Addison back soon, but McCarthy is not keeping drives alive. They only ran 46 plays yesterday!
Bears - Worried. 10 TDs, 73 points allowed in 5 quarters. Rome Odunze is taking over the WR room.
Bucs - Not Worried. Egbuka filled Godwins shoes like Cinderella. They got a little lucky in beating ATL. Let's see how week two goes.
Falcons - Not Worried. I like the way Penix has looked, he's avoiding mistakes. With Arthur Smith gone Bijan and even Pitts are getting a proper amount of usage. The loss to Tampa hurts their division chances but the look like a fringe playoff team. Getting four games against the next two teams helps.
Saints - Not Worried. Kellen Moore is in year 1 so there are no expectations. They gave the Niners a decent game. Juwan Johnson has been unlocked. Kamara still has that great balance.
Panthers - Worried. They rallied late against Arizona so maybe Young has found something but for 7 quarters he was awful. Tet looks like the real deal. Xavier Legette has sickening 4 catches in 15 targets for 8 yards. The defense has not been good. Changes are in the offing.
Rams - Not Worried. Defense is looking solid, Stafford is spreading it around, and McVay is even giving Kyren a blow once in awhile. As long as Stafford can stay upright these guys are contenders.
Niners - Worried. But not really. Mac Jones is one of the better backups around, Jauan Jennings returned and looked good, and CMAC got a normal amount of usage instead of the obscene week 1 number. Purdy will be back, Kittle wil be back, and Aiyuk may also show up in the 2nd half. In the meantime they have a nice soft last place schedule that should yield plenty of wins.
Cards - Not Worried. This division was always going to look good this year with both the AFC and NFC south on the schedule. So far so good for the Cards. Benson is keeping Conner fresh. If they can ever get Harrison more involved they could have a chance to leap the Rams and Niners. For now they're just a half step behind.
Seahawks - Not Worried. Statement win bullying the Steelers in the early time slot. The defense looks solid and they have a top receiver and running back duo. Darnold made a couple of bad plays but also hung in there and made a few great throws. They have a higher ceiling than people might think.
Buffalo - Not worried. Allen had his nose broken but they hardly needed to use him. Hammerlock on the East and in the driver's seat for #1 seed.
Patriots - Not worried. Great answers when Miami first took the lead 20-15 and also after their punt return for a TD gave them the lead again. Haven't even unlocked Henderson yet. Should be in the playoff hunt most of the year.
Jets - Worried. Manhandled by the Bills and the loss to Pittsburgh looks a little worse now. Tyrod is a capable backup if Fields misses time. Where is the D?
Dolphins - Worried. Bad pick late by Tua ended their chances. Offense in general looked better but defense is still a shitshow. Schedule does lighten up after the Bills hammer them next week, but these first two games were not exactly against contenders.
Bengals - Worried. 2-0 but now Joe Sheisty will be out three months? Browning will sling it but to both teams. Next four games @Min, @Den, Det, @GB. Yikes.
Ravens - Not Worried. Back to back 40 burgers and they barely used Henry in this one.
Steelers - Worried. Team is allowing 28 a game in their last 9 games. Their problem in a nutshell. They weren't good late last season. They've made a ton of splashy moves that in every case has made them older. They also have the earliest possible bye in Week 5. So, they need some time for all these new pieces to mesh, and then they have to play 13 consecutive games with the 2nd oldest team in the league just to get to wildcard weekend. This is not a recipe for success.
Browns - Not Worried. What is there to worry about? Nobody expected them to win. This is a building year. The rookie QBs will start getting reps. The rookie RBs are already getting reps. The rookie TE is getting reps. The defense was actually pretty good yardage wise against the Ravens.
Colts - Not Worried. You have to be excited about the Colts start. Putting up 473 yards against what is supposed to be a top 3 defense is impressive. Warren is already involved. I did probably 20 mock drafts and seemed to get Taylor about 75% of the time. Didn't get him a single time in any real drafts, dammit.
Jags - Worried. Cupcake opener followed 3 quarters against the backup for the Bengals had all the makings of a 2-0 start. Not sure why Lawrence doesn't seem to be on the same page with BTJ and Hunter yet. Texans, Niners, Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams heading into the week 8 bye, oh my.
Texans - Not Worried. Knew Rams would be a tough opponent. Let's see how they do against Tampa.
Titans - Not Worried. Another team building this year. Cam is showing flashes but is still a rookie. Ayomanor is stepping into the #2 WR role nicely. They had the lead in the third quarter vs Rams.
Chargers - Not Worried. Looked great in Brazil. Let's see how they do in the US tonight.
Raiders - Not Worried. Big week 1 win on the east coast. Stiffer test tonight vs Herbert and Co.
Broncos - Worried. Not a lot worried, but Nix is making mistakes, they didn't get much out of Harvey yet, and the defense got lit up in Indy. Some cracks to repair.
Chiefs - Not Worried. 0-2 and not worried? Well...they looked better against the Eagles despite have limited options on offense. Worthy is probably back next week and Rice in a few more weeks. Kelce has been their biggest problem, knocking out his teammate week 1 and letting a ball clank off his arms for a key pick this week. BUT....the Eagles barely got 200 yards, a big improvement from Week 1. They should handle the Giants and with the exception of Buffalo their toughest games the rest of the year are at home. Mahomes is healthy and running and reinforcements are on their way.
Eagles - Not Worried. Well, maybe a little worried. They're not killing teams but they do enough to win. AJ Brown isn't too involved, have to wonder if he's physically OK. Their schedule...wow. Except for two Giants games it's tough for the team everyone wants a shot at: Rams, Bucs, Broncos, Vikings, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Raiders Commanders and Bills will all get a swing. The have EIGHT more national games coming up.
Commanders - Worried. This is the oldest team in the league. RB is all of the sudden very thin with Robinson and Ekeler gone. Deebo and McLaurin combined are under 10 yards per catch. Daniels can still make magic but the Pack showed a blueprint to contain him. A step backwards this year was not unexpected.
Cowboys - Worried. Not a lot, just a little worried. I expected to see shootouts with Parsons gone but the way it unfolded against the Giants with multiple deep ball plays was troubling. Ironically, they are playing the run just fine. Javonte has been shockingly good. No surprise that Dak is putting up numbers and using CD, Pickens and Ferguson. Suddenly four of the next five (Bears, Jets, Panthers, Commanders) look winnable.
Giants - Not Worried. Bigtime effort from Russ this week. He still can throw the deep ball as well as anyone. Schedule is just too tough to win many. No surprise. Skattebo already getting a good chuck of work, saw him dropped in a bunch of leagues.
Packers - Not Worried. They've looked as good as anyone so far, dammit.
Lions - Not Worried. Got their swagger back taking it out on the Bears. The home/road splits for Goff may still be a thing. TeSlaa is a wizard so far.
Vikings - Worried. McCarthy just doesn't look ready. His throwing motion takes forever and I imagine his ability to read the play is still at a rookie level. Now Jones is dinged along with much of the defense. They do get Addison back soon, but McCarthy is not keeping drives alive. They only ran 46 plays yesterday!
Bears - Worried. 10 TDs, 73 points allowed in 5 quarters. Rome Odunze is taking over the WR room.
Bucs - Not Worried. Egbuka filled Godwins shoes like Cinderella. They got a little lucky in beating ATL. Let's see how week two goes.
Falcons - Not Worried. I like the way Penix has looked, he's avoiding mistakes. With Arthur Smith gone Bijan and even Pitts are getting a proper amount of usage. The loss to Tampa hurts their division chances but the look like a fringe playoff team. Getting four games against the next two teams helps.
Saints - Not Worried. Kellen Moore is in year 1 so there are no expectations. They gave the Niners a decent game. Juwan Johnson has been unlocked. Kamara still has that great balance.
Panthers - Worried. They rallied late against Arizona so maybe Young has found something but for 7 quarters he was awful. Tet looks like the real deal. Xavier Legette has sickening 4 catches in 15 targets for 8 yards. The defense has not been good. Changes are in the offing.
Rams - Not Worried. Defense is looking solid, Stafford is spreading it around, and McVay is even giving Kyren a blow once in awhile. As long as Stafford can stay upright these guys are contenders.
Niners - Worried. But not really. Mac Jones is one of the better backups around, Jauan Jennings returned and looked good, and CMAC got a normal amount of usage instead of the obscene week 1 number. Purdy will be back, Kittle wil be back, and Aiyuk may also show up in the 2nd half. In the meantime they have a nice soft last place schedule that should yield plenty of wins.
Cards - Not Worried. This division was always going to look good this year with both the AFC and NFC south on the schedule. So far so good for the Cards. Benson is keeping Conner fresh. If they can ever get Harrison more involved they could have a chance to leap the Rams and Niners. For now they're just a half step behind.
Seahawks - Not Worried. Statement win bullying the Steelers in the early time slot. The defense looks solid and they have a top receiver and running back duo. Darnold made a couple of bad plays but also hung in there and made a few great throws. They have a higher ceiling than people might think.
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
KC isn't a 0-2 team. 1 turnover cost them a win against Philly.
-5.5 @ NY Giants almost seems like a gift?
-5.5 @ NY Giants almost seems like a gift?
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
I think is a great idea. The owner has every right to be involved.
Aubrey will break the bank for a kicker when his contract is up. Though sure Jones will fuck it up somehow. What a weapon. Get to 50 and u have 3. He will get a 70 yard soon. With new kick off rules u usually get ball around 35. Only need 15 yards. Saw that yesterday with 25 seconds left vs nyg. Easily should be first $10m kicker maybe more. Not only distance but he doesn't miss.
On side note. Only have bm and Circa this year as betting lite. Circa changed their Teaser from 2 teams 6 points to 5 points. Still -120. Great book but awful for Live and now teasers.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Still think a kicker's union would be incredible. They win and lose more games than any other player in the uniform.
TreyDawg
Pretty much a regular
Skins thoughts after 2 weeks (from a lifer).....
Worried is right @Gandolf. I was skeptical coming into the season and don't see any reason to change my stance at all. Injuries or not I'd feel the same way but now their depth is being tested in ways it wasn't last year. There will be a lot of things tested this season in ways it wasn't last year. The 4th down conversion % will drop off, sharply. The close games will have to swing back in the other direction some too. You can't continue to win in some of the ways they won last year especially when their season was called "magical" or "team of destiny" or things like that. Those things were a given before the year started.
Reality is the roster is at least a couple of years away. They've tried plugging some holes with vets and it's been hit or miss. I've been cringing all summer and every time I hear a media "expert" have the Skins in their top 10 or picking them to make the playoffs as if it's a foregone conclusion. Even heard some picking them to challenge Philly for the division. It's been weird and from my eyes also wrong. Skins won't challenge for the division and will be a stretch to even challenge for a WC spot. I think they miss the playoffs. Schedule is tough and just too many variables to overcome and not enough roster talent.
Offense: McLaurin hold in hurt, will take time to gel again. Connerly looked very much like a rookie against GB and JD had happy feet in the pocket all night. Daniels is running too much and now his health is a little in question. Listed as questionable this weekend already and pissed I didn't grab LV +5.5. He took a hit that didn't look good and one you definitely don't want your QB taking. That has to stop, they need to protect him and run him less. RB room is now real thin and Bill gonna be the bell cow. K, we'll see how that works out. Injuries starting to stack up, Ekeler and Wise absence will be felt. Like what they're doin with Deebo though. They need Terry back with a quickness and need to catch lightning in a bottle with Bill or else it's gonna turn into a long season and feel like years past.
Defense: Can we just get rid of Lattimore please? I hated they didn't move on from this summer and it's killing the secondary because everyone in the building still things he's a shutdown corner. Dude straight sucks, he's washed. I never liked that trade and hate it more now. Not a fan. Like Mikey S & Amos but hate we lost Chinn. This defense can't generate pressure with a pass rush or create turnovers and it's old. Luckily they haven't turned it over on offense yet but that won't last.
I'm struggling to find 8 wins on their schedule. Yikes
Worried is right @Gandolf. I was skeptical coming into the season and don't see any reason to change my stance at all. Injuries or not I'd feel the same way but now their depth is being tested in ways it wasn't last year. There will be a lot of things tested this season in ways it wasn't last year. The 4th down conversion % will drop off, sharply. The close games will have to swing back in the other direction some too. You can't continue to win in some of the ways they won last year especially when their season was called "magical" or "team of destiny" or things like that. Those things were a given before the year started.
Reality is the roster is at least a couple of years away. They've tried plugging some holes with vets and it's been hit or miss. I've been cringing all summer and every time I hear a media "expert" have the Skins in their top 10 or picking them to make the playoffs as if it's a foregone conclusion. Even heard some picking them to challenge Philly for the division. It's been weird and from my eyes also wrong. Skins won't challenge for the division and will be a stretch to even challenge for a WC spot. I think they miss the playoffs. Schedule is tough and just too many variables to overcome and not enough roster talent.
Offense: McLaurin hold in hurt, will take time to gel again. Connerly looked very much like a rookie against GB and JD had happy feet in the pocket all night. Daniels is running too much and now his health is a little in question. Listed as questionable this weekend already and pissed I didn't grab LV +5.5. He took a hit that didn't look good and one you definitely don't want your QB taking. That has to stop, they need to protect him and run him less. RB room is now real thin and Bill gonna be the bell cow. K, we'll see how that works out. Injuries starting to stack up, Ekeler and Wise absence will be felt. Like what they're doin with Deebo though. They need Terry back with a quickness and need to catch lightning in a bottle with Bill or else it's gonna turn into a long season and feel like years past.
Defense: Can we just get rid of Lattimore please? I hated they didn't move on from this summer and it's killing the secondary because everyone in the building still things he's a shutdown corner. Dude straight sucks, he's washed. I never liked that trade and hate it more now. Not a fan. Like Mikey S & Amos but hate we lost Chinn. This defense can't generate pressure with a pass rush or create turnovers and it's old. Luckily they haven't turned it over on offense yet but that won't last.
I'm struggling to find 8 wins on their schedule. Yikes
Frank Costanza
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
No doubt.
Hopefully the Colts have better results than the Cowboys. We've seen what three decades of direct owner involvement has done for that organization.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
yeah, what is the highest paid? About $5m I think. I understand it's because they are in so few plays - but those plays are so critical. I have no idea his contract situation. But I'd love see him as a Unrestricted FA just to see what offers he'd get. I watched the KC game and the philly kicker hit a 58 yarder that would have been good from 70. I think we see a 70 yarder this season.
pressitup
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I'm sttill pissed oveer the penalty at the end of th Broncos game.
To be up 2 w/-1 ticket and they call a leverage penalty on a 60yd fg. give me a break.
ETA: that loss put me ovr the mendoza line with the book and I had to pay this morning.
To be up 2 w/-1 ticket and they call a leverage penalty on a 60yd fg. give me a break.
ETA: that loss put me ovr the mendoza line with the book and I had to pay this morning.
DeadEyeDuckie
Pretty much a regular
Denver's "elite" defense is in fact not elite
Dallas's defense is bad.
KC's offense right now needs some new life.
Detroit can still score
The "Magic Mike" days are coming to an end in Miami
Steelers look old and they ARE old.
Dallas's defense is bad.
KC's offense right now needs some new life.
Detroit can still score
The "Magic Mike" days are coming to an end in Miami
Steelers look old and they ARE old.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
I know the stat is something like 70-75% of teams to start 2-0 make the playoffs, but isn’t Arizona to NOT make the playoffs at even odds pretty good value? They’ve barely beaten 2 of the worst teams in the NFL. Might jump on this one
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Most owners have a board of some sort. It’s just good practice for larger run businesses in my humble opinion
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
A few things from me, if they might help anyone.
In week one, I sort of spread out how I watched the games and tried to watch as many as possible mainly since the Eagles had already played by Sunday. This week was different, I mainly focused on about five or so games. Mostly the ones I bet, for degenerate reasons, obviously.
But my main takeaway overall now that we have twice the sample size is two-fold. One, I think I can start putting teams in tiers now—even though these are going to be fluid, which is kind of the point. But I feel like I’ve seen enough now to make some really rough calls on a lot of teams.
Two, last week I was convinced this new kickoff rule would lead to more points. Did I then bet a ton of overs this past weekend? Of course not. And then overs went nuts. *sigh* HOWEVER, I still hold this to be true and I believe that for at least say the first four/five weeks we’re going to get more points than not. After that, I think you’ll see books adjust.
OK, onward.
Good teams
GB
Baltimore
San Diego
Buffalo
There’s not really much to say about these teams, outside of how the Chargers should still be playing in San Diego, you know, for America. The biggest thing for me here is that all these teams are basically playing December-quality football to start the season. Which is great. But it’s also a blessing and a curse.
Yes, they’re playing better than anyone, the problem is, it’s October. You don’t want to peak now, because sustaining that for 20 weeks is impossible. HOWEVER, I like the way all of these teams are built. If they can avoid injuries, it’s tough for me to pick against any of them to win their division. Save maybe the Chargers which I’ll talk more about with Denver and KC below, but in the meantime, I was mad at myself for forgetting to take a piece of +300 on them before last weekend, but today I got a piece of -105 (William Hill) and I like it.
Could-be good teams, with question marks
LAR
Philly
Detroit
Denver
To me, these are teams who could be on that top tier level, but aren’t right now because something is still missing. Thing is, if you think of it as a horserace, part of me would rather be in this tier than the top tier. Because it’s incredibly difficult to win wire-to-wire. Meanwhile, these teams aren’t quite at their best yet, but that gives them room to improve and peak when it matters. A couple of notes on each.
The Rams
The big reason I’m putting them here is the same reason everybody is worried about this team over the course of 17+ games. Stafford’s health. If he can stay healthy, this is a top tier team. They may not be as talented as GB or Philly position by position, but they could easily win this conference given the talent and coaching they have.
Not surprisingly, I think this is why you saw the +4.5 with them this week in Philly get pounded on the open. That was a bad line, hopefully you got it if you like it, because it is gone, gone, gone.
Philly
As you can probably imagine, Joe has watched the Birds very carefully this year. This is the team I know by far the most about and I think I have a good read on them. They’re in this tier because, just like last year, their offense has started extremely slow. They also have some question marks on defense—namely at CB2 and with the rookie they’re starting at safety who had the pick to win the game last week against KC. Makuba’s good, but he’s still very raw and while he’s making plays, he’s also missing plays. But that’s to be expected.
And again, this is why you don’t play the playoffs in October. You play them at the end of the season and there is every indication that this defense, if it stays healthy, will be top three in the league by the end of the year. They really are that good and that well-coached.
That said, I hate this spot for the Eagles this week, even though it’s at home. Part of me thinks this is their first loss of the season, and that it might be a good loss for them to take. Either way, personally I’d probably take 3.5 or better with the Rams and if you get beat, it happens.
Detroit
I think the Lions are quite rightly in this tier based on all the changes they’ve had. Clearly, based on their full-fisting of the Bears, they still have the talent to be as good as anybody in the conference, but they’re also breaking in new coordinators and talent. It feels right to say this team is very likely going to be uneven for the first … fiveish? games of the season, maybe more? Their bye week is in Week 8, which I honestly think is great for them. It’s after playing KC and TB and before the Vikings at home. If they’re going to get on the same page, I think coming out of the break is when you’ll see it. In the meantime, I feel like their goal has to be to just stay above .500. That should position them to peak down the stretch and have a shot at the division and maybe more.
Denver
I’m putting the Broncos here for two reasons. One, their defense is really good. Now, their defense also gave up too many points last week and let Jonathan Taylor through them like BAR ripping through his feet fetish OF subscriptions on a Friday night. But, look, he doesn’t police how you spend your disposable income. Anyway, I believe in Denver’s defense. What I have questions about is Bo Nix. I just do.
But we also know Sean Payton and if he can keep this defense playing well, he’s going to treat Nix like Drew Brees light. Or maybe like the Eagles treat Hurts. Don’t turn the ball over, get first downs, we will win the game. Speaking of which, absolutely huge game for Denver this week.
It may not seem like it in Week 3, but coming off a game they should not have lost, Denver’s in a spot where if they lose to the Chargers, they’re two games behind them, with a straight up loss to them. It wouldn’t be the end of the season, but it would put them in a really bad spot, really early in the season. Which is to say, if you think Denver wins this game this weekend, I’d bet both them in this game, and for the division. Conversely, if you like the Chargers, I’d bet that division total now. A win here and they’re 3-0 in the division to start the year. Again, it wouldn’t be over, but ….
Could-be good teams, with injuries
SF
Minny
KC
Wash
For me, these are the teams that miss out on the tier above because they’re so fucked up with injury right now. Are they good? Maybe? No way to know, really. The question with these teams is, can they tread water until they get help later in the season. If so, I think they all have the talent to make a push for the playoffs.
San Fran
People talked last week about how Shanahan really, really wanted Mac Jones in the draft and now he has him so o’ won’t he just be thrilled. Right. I think we all know Jones is a fine backup, but Purdy—no matter how you feel about him—is a significant upgrade. Now that SF has had their week where they rallied without their injured players, what happens? Who knows—especially since I’d argue we may not know much of anything about Arizona. But with SF’s injuries being so significant, I think they’re a little like Detroit. They’re probably going to be inconsistent for the first quarter of the season. If they survive that, then maybe they can make a push. The good news for them, and all of us sitting on tickets for them to win the division, is their schedule. Despite their injuries, that schedule may keep them afloat until they get some guys back. And their bye week being super late (Week 14) weirdly might help them? Maybe?
Minnesota
Oh man, last week your friend Joe made a big point of saying that if that Atlanta line went to +6 there was only one bet in this game. But did he listen to himself? No. No he did not. Because by the time that game went off at -3, I was in it with both feet. And you know who doesn’t like my feet? Steed’s mom. Which is a different story for a different time. But also, JJ Fucking Shitdicking McCarthy.
You want to know how scared Minnesota is that McCarthy sucks? Remember last week, when it was pretty clear that Brock Purdy was hurt? Do you remember how it took them like three days to admit, ‘Yeah, we can’t play this guy this week’? Meanwhile, McCarthy has like a mildly sprained ankle (allegedly) and Minnesota ran to the fucking podium to declare him out for this week by Monday morning.
Why? Because that guy fucking sucks. Now, maybe sitting on the bench for a week will help him. But honestly, that defense was good enough on Monday night that even mildly competent QB play could have given them a shot to win it. They got nothing of the sort. HOWEVER, this defense is good. Problem is this whole team is injured all over the place (something I stupidly ignored as a got locked into betting this team). They’re too hurt right now. Get guys back, get some halfway decent QB play from Wentz to steady the ship, if/when McCarthy comes back, they’re good? Maybe?
KC
As mentioned, this is a game I watched carefully and I am here to tell you, reports of Kansas City’s demise are greatly exaggerated. That said, they’re in a world of hurt right now. Literally. Spags still coaches a great game, Chris Jones is still great, Mahomes is still great. But all those games they’ve played in the last few years, all those years of drafting behind literally every team in the league. It’s caught up to them. They’re tired. And they’re hurt.
But KC also knows and has proven that October doesn’t matter unless you go 0-fer in it. And they won’t. They’ll find a way to beat the Giants, then probably get hammered by the Ravens. But if they can muddle their way to the bye in Week 10, you might see them make a late Bengals-like run to sneak into the playoffs. But they need their WRs back badly. And really, they need a running game. That’s really why they lost on Sunday, they just didn’t have the horses.
Wash
I know the Commandos were a trendy pick to take a step back this year, but I’d argue they’re still live to get to the playoffs. The problem they have is two-fold, first, they’re old. The oldest team in the league, I believe. Second, they just lost Ekler for the year on offense, and DE Deatrich Wise for the year as well. Oh and now they say Daniels has a gimpy knee for this week. Again, it’s injury.
But I think this team is well-coached—I do like them to get past Vegas this week and I don’t think their schedule is bad. But because the injuries they’ve had have been season-enders, I don’t know if I can see this team ever making the top tier for me this year, still, I can’t take them out of being live for the post-season. Not yet. Not if Daniels is going to be there all year.
Mirage teams
Sea
TB
Atlanta
Indy
Arizona
This is a terrible name for this tier, but it’s going to turn out to be very true for at least a couple of these teams. Remember last year how, through two weeks, the Saints looked INCREDIBLE? Then Philly went in there, clawed out a win, and it was like the thread in the sweater got pulled. I feel like that will happen two at least two of the following this year. But the others …
Seattle
This was another game I was dialed into over the weekend and I’m now 2-0 with this team this year. Everyone saw the kickoff play that basically iced this game, but the reality is, Seattle was the better team in that game. I can’t tell you they win without that play, but I can tell you I never thought I had the wrong side last week with them. This team is good—but, and I’ve said this before, I’m going to die on the hill that Sam Darnold won’t work in Seattle. He’s fine now, because the weather is good and they’re healthy. But I think the later it goes, the worse this whole thing is going to go. However, if I’m wrong, this team ends up being exactly who they look like. A team that is balanced on offense and good enough on defense to win you games.
Personally, I’m looking to bet Seattle in spots probably about until their bye in Week 8. Good news for Darnold though, outside of going to Washington and Tennessee, he gets to go to warm weather when he hits the road as the year goes on (@Jax, @LAR, @Atlanta, @Carolina, @SF). So, again, maybe he makes it through and this team goes somewhere.
Tampa
Putting Tampa—and maybe even Atlanta—here seems like it could be unfair. Tampa is 2-0, yes, their first game was ugly—last night wasn’t super great either—but they’ve won. They’ve had injuries, but they kind of are who they are. To me, one of two things happens. Either they stay this way, win the division again, and lose in the second round of the playoffs to a good team. Or it comes apart, probably because of injury. This team doesn’t strike me as one that’s going to be able to tread water like some of the more talented teams. But again, maybe I’m wrong …
I like Tampa in spots. This week feels like one, though maybe it’s too easy. But they get the Pats at home, they get the Saints, they get the Cardinals at home, they get the Dolphins. If they stay healthy, this team probably deserves more respect than I’m giving them. Week 4 vs. Philly will be a nice test. Though, if I’m right, and Philly drops this game this weekend vs. LAR, and assuming TB beats the Jets, I think that could be a good spot to fade the Bucs. Big revenge spot for the Eagles.
Atlanta
Whew, was your friend Joe wrong about this team. My pre-season read was, ‘New center, rookie QB, lots of new pieces on the DL, bad. Bad to start. Bad.’ And last week I thought, ‘Rookie QB, on the road vs. Brian Flores? Good luck.’ Sure enough, it was more like ‘Good luck fitting an entire foot up my ass’ and as it turns out, Penix was more than capable of doing exactly. Thing is, that Minnesota game is a great example of how Atlanta is going to win.
First, run the ball. Second, all that draft capital that they spent on the DL, pays off. Third, play with a lead. Because Minnesota never led, we never got the game I expected which was to ask Penix to beat a good DC. So long as Atlanta can run, this team is going to be balanced and while Penix is a rookie, he’s also really seasoned. He’s kind of the anti-JJ McCarthy. Which is to say, A) He doesn’t suck and B) He’s played a lot of football for a rookie. I think this team COULD be good. But, an injury or two, especially on that OL, and I think this team could start having a lot of problems.
That said, right now, as against them as I was this week, yes, give me them against Carolina. SU, that is, -6.5 is dumb, this team isn’t Buffalo or Baltimore. Speaking of which, the Falcons play the Bills in a couple of weeks. At home And their schedule gets soft come Week 8. They do play Indy on the road, but by then Daniel Jones may suck. Meanwhile, in there they’ve got @NE, Carolina, @NO, @NYJ, all in a row before home to Seattle and @TB. They could have a nice little run there and really start to believe.
Indy
To me, this team (and the next one) are perfect candidates for a mirage team. Right now, Indy looks great. Super great. As everyone has probably heard by now, they haven’t punted yet in two games. Amazing! However, Miami fucking sucks, and Denver should have won that game.
This is another one of those teams where I just don’t believe in the QB. Yes, he looks very good through two games—and, muy importante—their running game is absolutely killing it. If that stays consistent, I’ll probably be wrong, this team will win 10 games or more, and they’ll win the division. Because that’s how you protect a shitty QB.
However, I’m still trying to shake that scene at the end of last year, when this team had basically quit and everybody was ready for Steichen(sp?) to be fired. Maybe it’s a new year and maybe winning cures everything? Maybe. Anyway, I want to see how Jones does once he has to play outdoors. That starts this week, btw, in Nashville.
Arizona
This is another thing that could be good! They also could blow. Like Indy, their first opponent sucked. Arguably, so did their second. And yet, in both cases, they had to hold on for dear life to win. Conversely, especially last week, they were way ahead very early. So maybe them almost being 0-2 isn’t really a thing. But it is enough to make me question if this team is any good. Again, they may be, but their early season schedule is so friendly.
This week they get SF coming off a long-ass road trip without their starting QB. Yes, then they have Seattle at home, but then they get the Titans at home. We may not get a sense of how good this team really is, even if they lose to Seattle, until Week 6 when they go @Indy and then back home for GB. My guess is, maybe my hope is, they’re like 4-1 heading into those. It might provide some opportunity.
Middling teams
Cleveland
Dallas
Chicago
LVR
Pitt
Houston
Jax
Cincy
To me, these are teams that, sorry boys, are already playing for next year. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because I don’t think any of them really thought this year would be their year. Other than maybe Pitt.
Cleveland
The Browns played better than the score indicated at Baltimore, but they still got thumped. These things happen to bad teams. I do still believe in their defense. I do still believe they’ll have a game where Flacco puts up 30 points in a win. But I also think, slowly but surely, their defense will be on the field too much, it will get run down, and sooner than later we’ll see them start the QB carousel.
Dallas
This team’s offense is great—except now they’re without their starting center for like 4-6 weeks. At the same time, this might be the worst secondary in the league. Which is why getting rid of Parsons was so dumb. If they can’t get home, they’re gonna get cooked. Regularly. Because all of these issues are structural, this won’t be just an early season thing, imo. Dallas’ only chance is to outscore teams. I’m betting overs.
Chicago
I don’t know if Caleb sucks or not. But I think the team does. I think there was too much hype on this team making too big of a jump this year. Maybe they grow as the season progresses, which is what you have to hope for if you’re a Bears fan. But I think it’s readjusting expectations time in Chicago. And really, I don’t even want to be involved with them right now unless something jumps out at me in terms of a spot. And I want to stay away from their totals unless, like last week, I think someone can put 40+ on them. Which, maybe Dallas can?
LVR
So, last week I said I was going to revise my stock on this team upward. I’m not totally going to revise it downward after last night, but last night was the perfect reason why Geno Smith is still a journeyman starter. That game should have been close. That game could have, maybe should have easily, hit the over. Turns out, neither thing had a chance because Geno had one of those games that inconsistent QBs have. He was just bad. Now, that won’t be every game, or he’d be benched. More likely, it’s going to be one out of every three games. But that’s enough to keep this team at or below .500. To me, they’re also a spot/situational play.
Pitt
I’m sorry, Joe is just one of those people who enjoys rooting against Aaron Rogers. It’s just who I am. It’s like rooting against the Bosas, only a little more satisfying somehow. Again, this was a game I watched and I’ve watched Pittsburgh twice now. I’m also 2-0 in their games. The problem with Rogers, imo, is what happens to anybody who’s ever played sports as we get older. He still thinks he can make all the throws. And like 75% of the time, he’s right. But every day that goes by, that number gets a little lower.
So in this game, like in the first game, you saw some vintage Rogers throws. But in both games, just like you saw when Brett Farve was going through this stage of his career, there were some really terrible throws. Stuff back across his body, into traffic. Why? Because he used to be able to make that throw. As the season goes on, that will continue.
Worse than that, right now, this defense is getting cooked. Justin Fields did it to them. Sam Darnold did it to them. They have a run here of some questionable QBs coming up, @NE, Minny, Cleveland, @Cincy. But as the season goes on, I feel like this team may start getting housed if this defense doesn’t come together. Like I’ve said, I’ve watched this team twice. And they may, they probably should, win this week, but I do not like them generally on the year.
Houston
Jax
Cincy
Could any of these three teams be mistakenly placed in this tier? Maybe. But if that were true, wouldn’t Houston and Jax have held on and won this weekend? Sure, Jax had a bad call go against them. And Houston did have Baker 4th and 10 to ice the game. And yet …
They’re clearly in different stages of their development. Houston should be further along in building/sustaining a division winner. And maybe they come together as the season goes a long. Remember, we’re not all that far removed from the team that went into Arrowhead in the playoffs and played pretty well. Likewise, Jax has a new coach, but maybe they grow as the season goes on. Maybe TLaw starts to figure it out. But can we count on any of that?
Meanwhile, Cincy is now without Burrow and as serviceable as Browning has been, does anyone have any faith in that defense? Houston and the Jags play each other this weekend so I can just pass on that, and Browning goes to Minnesota to play Carson Wentz? Again, pass. Let’s revisit these teams in a week or two
Bad teams
NYG
Carolina
NO
Miami
NYJ
If anybody has any reason I shouldn’t be putting these teams at the bottom of the league, I’m happy to hear it. Great job by the Giants competing against Dallas, but they lost. Great job by Carolina coming back last week, but they’re also 0-2. The Jets have some talent, on both sides of the ball, but now Fields is concussed and they’re honestly rebuilding so …
I don’t really see how you do anything but find perfect spots for these teams or fade them. The two caveats would be, what happens when the Giants change QBs, and what happens when Miami fires McDaniels. Other than that … yuck.
And that’s it. If you read this far, that’s a lot of words and you should be very proud because nobody reads any more. Well done. Here’s something from me, to you.
Wash ML/GB ML/Seattle ML – pays anywhere around +140. I also think you can put Baltimore in there somewhere if one of those worries you. Or do two team RRs with them to knock down the juice. I like the spots for all four of those teams this week.
In week one, I sort of spread out how I watched the games and tried to watch as many as possible mainly since the Eagles had already played by Sunday. This week was different, I mainly focused on about five or so games. Mostly the ones I bet, for degenerate reasons, obviously.
But my main takeaway overall now that we have twice the sample size is two-fold. One, I think I can start putting teams in tiers now—even though these are going to be fluid, which is kind of the point. But I feel like I’ve seen enough now to make some really rough calls on a lot of teams.
Two, last week I was convinced this new kickoff rule would lead to more points. Did I then bet a ton of overs this past weekend? Of course not. And then overs went nuts. *sigh* HOWEVER, I still hold this to be true and I believe that for at least say the first four/five weeks we’re going to get more points than not. After that, I think you’ll see books adjust.
OK, onward.
Good teams
GB
Baltimore
San Diego
Buffalo
There’s not really much to say about these teams, outside of how the Chargers should still be playing in San Diego, you know, for America. The biggest thing for me here is that all these teams are basically playing December-quality football to start the season. Which is great. But it’s also a blessing and a curse.
Yes, they’re playing better than anyone, the problem is, it’s October. You don’t want to peak now, because sustaining that for 20 weeks is impossible. HOWEVER, I like the way all of these teams are built. If they can avoid injuries, it’s tough for me to pick against any of them to win their division. Save maybe the Chargers which I’ll talk more about with Denver and KC below, but in the meantime, I was mad at myself for forgetting to take a piece of +300 on them before last weekend, but today I got a piece of -105 (William Hill) and I like it.
Could-be good teams, with question marks
LAR
Philly
Detroit
Denver
To me, these are teams who could be on that top tier level, but aren’t right now because something is still missing. Thing is, if you think of it as a horserace, part of me would rather be in this tier than the top tier. Because it’s incredibly difficult to win wire-to-wire. Meanwhile, these teams aren’t quite at their best yet, but that gives them room to improve and peak when it matters. A couple of notes on each.
The Rams
The big reason I’m putting them here is the same reason everybody is worried about this team over the course of 17+ games. Stafford’s health. If he can stay healthy, this is a top tier team. They may not be as talented as GB or Philly position by position, but they could easily win this conference given the talent and coaching they have.
Not surprisingly, I think this is why you saw the +4.5 with them this week in Philly get pounded on the open. That was a bad line, hopefully you got it if you like it, because it is gone, gone, gone.
Philly
As you can probably imagine, Joe has watched the Birds very carefully this year. This is the team I know by far the most about and I think I have a good read on them. They’re in this tier because, just like last year, their offense has started extremely slow. They also have some question marks on defense—namely at CB2 and with the rookie they’re starting at safety who had the pick to win the game last week against KC. Makuba’s good, but he’s still very raw and while he’s making plays, he’s also missing plays. But that’s to be expected.
And again, this is why you don’t play the playoffs in October. You play them at the end of the season and there is every indication that this defense, if it stays healthy, will be top three in the league by the end of the year. They really are that good and that well-coached.
That said, I hate this spot for the Eagles this week, even though it’s at home. Part of me thinks this is their first loss of the season, and that it might be a good loss for them to take. Either way, personally I’d probably take 3.5 or better with the Rams and if you get beat, it happens.
Detroit
I think the Lions are quite rightly in this tier based on all the changes they’ve had. Clearly, based on their full-fisting of the Bears, they still have the talent to be as good as anybody in the conference, but they’re also breaking in new coordinators and talent. It feels right to say this team is very likely going to be uneven for the first … fiveish? games of the season, maybe more? Their bye week is in Week 8, which I honestly think is great for them. It’s after playing KC and TB and before the Vikings at home. If they’re going to get on the same page, I think coming out of the break is when you’ll see it. In the meantime, I feel like their goal has to be to just stay above .500. That should position them to peak down the stretch and have a shot at the division and maybe more.
Denver
I’m putting the Broncos here for two reasons. One, their defense is really good. Now, their defense also gave up too many points last week and let Jonathan Taylor through them like BAR ripping through his feet fetish OF subscriptions on a Friday night. But, look, he doesn’t police how you spend your disposable income. Anyway, I believe in Denver’s defense. What I have questions about is Bo Nix. I just do.
But we also know Sean Payton and if he can keep this defense playing well, he’s going to treat Nix like Drew Brees light. Or maybe like the Eagles treat Hurts. Don’t turn the ball over, get first downs, we will win the game. Speaking of which, absolutely huge game for Denver this week.
It may not seem like it in Week 3, but coming off a game they should not have lost, Denver’s in a spot where if they lose to the Chargers, they’re two games behind them, with a straight up loss to them. It wouldn’t be the end of the season, but it would put them in a really bad spot, really early in the season. Which is to say, if you think Denver wins this game this weekend, I’d bet both them in this game, and for the division. Conversely, if you like the Chargers, I’d bet that division total now. A win here and they’re 3-0 in the division to start the year. Again, it wouldn’t be over, but ….
Could-be good teams, with injuries
SF
Minny
KC
Wash
For me, these are the teams that miss out on the tier above because they’re so fucked up with injury right now. Are they good? Maybe? No way to know, really. The question with these teams is, can they tread water until they get help later in the season. If so, I think they all have the talent to make a push for the playoffs.
San Fran
People talked last week about how Shanahan really, really wanted Mac Jones in the draft and now he has him so o’ won’t he just be thrilled. Right. I think we all know Jones is a fine backup, but Purdy—no matter how you feel about him—is a significant upgrade. Now that SF has had their week where they rallied without their injured players, what happens? Who knows—especially since I’d argue we may not know much of anything about Arizona. But with SF’s injuries being so significant, I think they’re a little like Detroit. They’re probably going to be inconsistent for the first quarter of the season. If they survive that, then maybe they can make a push. The good news for them, and all of us sitting on tickets for them to win the division, is their schedule. Despite their injuries, that schedule may keep them afloat until they get some guys back. And their bye week being super late (Week 14) weirdly might help them? Maybe?
Minnesota
Oh man, last week your friend Joe made a big point of saying that if that Atlanta line went to +6 there was only one bet in this game. But did he listen to himself? No. No he did not. Because by the time that game went off at -3, I was in it with both feet. And you know who doesn’t like my feet? Steed’s mom. Which is a different story for a different time. But also, JJ Fucking Shitdicking McCarthy.
You want to know how scared Minnesota is that McCarthy sucks? Remember last week, when it was pretty clear that Brock Purdy was hurt? Do you remember how it took them like three days to admit, ‘Yeah, we can’t play this guy this week’? Meanwhile, McCarthy has like a mildly sprained ankle (allegedly) and Minnesota ran to the fucking podium to declare him out for this week by Monday morning.
Why? Because that guy fucking sucks. Now, maybe sitting on the bench for a week will help him. But honestly, that defense was good enough on Monday night that even mildly competent QB play could have given them a shot to win it. They got nothing of the sort. HOWEVER, this defense is good. Problem is this whole team is injured all over the place (something I stupidly ignored as a got locked into betting this team). They’re too hurt right now. Get guys back, get some halfway decent QB play from Wentz to steady the ship, if/when McCarthy comes back, they’re good? Maybe?
KC
As mentioned, this is a game I watched carefully and I am here to tell you, reports of Kansas City’s demise are greatly exaggerated. That said, they’re in a world of hurt right now. Literally. Spags still coaches a great game, Chris Jones is still great, Mahomes is still great. But all those games they’ve played in the last few years, all those years of drafting behind literally every team in the league. It’s caught up to them. They’re tired. And they’re hurt.
But KC also knows and has proven that October doesn’t matter unless you go 0-fer in it. And they won’t. They’ll find a way to beat the Giants, then probably get hammered by the Ravens. But if they can muddle their way to the bye in Week 10, you might see them make a late Bengals-like run to sneak into the playoffs. But they need their WRs back badly. And really, they need a running game. That’s really why they lost on Sunday, they just didn’t have the horses.
Wash
I know the Commandos were a trendy pick to take a step back this year, but I’d argue they’re still live to get to the playoffs. The problem they have is two-fold, first, they’re old. The oldest team in the league, I believe. Second, they just lost Ekler for the year on offense, and DE Deatrich Wise for the year as well. Oh and now they say Daniels has a gimpy knee for this week. Again, it’s injury.
But I think this team is well-coached—I do like them to get past Vegas this week and I don’t think their schedule is bad. But because the injuries they’ve had have been season-enders, I don’t know if I can see this team ever making the top tier for me this year, still, I can’t take them out of being live for the post-season. Not yet. Not if Daniels is going to be there all year.
Mirage teams
Sea
TB
Atlanta
Indy
Arizona
This is a terrible name for this tier, but it’s going to turn out to be very true for at least a couple of these teams. Remember last year how, through two weeks, the Saints looked INCREDIBLE? Then Philly went in there, clawed out a win, and it was like the thread in the sweater got pulled. I feel like that will happen two at least two of the following this year. But the others …
Seattle
This was another game I was dialed into over the weekend and I’m now 2-0 with this team this year. Everyone saw the kickoff play that basically iced this game, but the reality is, Seattle was the better team in that game. I can’t tell you they win without that play, but I can tell you I never thought I had the wrong side last week with them. This team is good—but, and I’ve said this before, I’m going to die on the hill that Sam Darnold won’t work in Seattle. He’s fine now, because the weather is good and they’re healthy. But I think the later it goes, the worse this whole thing is going to go. However, if I’m wrong, this team ends up being exactly who they look like. A team that is balanced on offense and good enough on defense to win you games.
Personally, I’m looking to bet Seattle in spots probably about until their bye in Week 8. Good news for Darnold though, outside of going to Washington and Tennessee, he gets to go to warm weather when he hits the road as the year goes on (@Jax, @LAR, @Atlanta, @Carolina, @SF). So, again, maybe he makes it through and this team goes somewhere.
Tampa
Putting Tampa—and maybe even Atlanta—here seems like it could be unfair. Tampa is 2-0, yes, their first game was ugly—last night wasn’t super great either—but they’ve won. They’ve had injuries, but they kind of are who they are. To me, one of two things happens. Either they stay this way, win the division again, and lose in the second round of the playoffs to a good team. Or it comes apart, probably because of injury. This team doesn’t strike me as one that’s going to be able to tread water like some of the more talented teams. But again, maybe I’m wrong …
I like Tampa in spots. This week feels like one, though maybe it’s too easy. But they get the Pats at home, they get the Saints, they get the Cardinals at home, they get the Dolphins. If they stay healthy, this team probably deserves more respect than I’m giving them. Week 4 vs. Philly will be a nice test. Though, if I’m right, and Philly drops this game this weekend vs. LAR, and assuming TB beats the Jets, I think that could be a good spot to fade the Bucs. Big revenge spot for the Eagles.
Atlanta
Whew, was your friend Joe wrong about this team. My pre-season read was, ‘New center, rookie QB, lots of new pieces on the DL, bad. Bad to start. Bad.’ And last week I thought, ‘Rookie QB, on the road vs. Brian Flores? Good luck.’ Sure enough, it was more like ‘Good luck fitting an entire foot up my ass’ and as it turns out, Penix was more than capable of doing exactly. Thing is, that Minnesota game is a great example of how Atlanta is going to win.
First, run the ball. Second, all that draft capital that they spent on the DL, pays off. Third, play with a lead. Because Minnesota never led, we never got the game I expected which was to ask Penix to beat a good DC. So long as Atlanta can run, this team is going to be balanced and while Penix is a rookie, he’s also really seasoned. He’s kind of the anti-JJ McCarthy. Which is to say, A) He doesn’t suck and B) He’s played a lot of football for a rookie. I think this team COULD be good. But, an injury or two, especially on that OL, and I think this team could start having a lot of problems.
That said, right now, as against them as I was this week, yes, give me them against Carolina. SU, that is, -6.5 is dumb, this team isn’t Buffalo or Baltimore. Speaking of which, the Falcons play the Bills in a couple of weeks. At home And their schedule gets soft come Week 8. They do play Indy on the road, but by then Daniel Jones may suck. Meanwhile, in there they’ve got @NE, Carolina, @NO, @NYJ, all in a row before home to Seattle and @TB. They could have a nice little run there and really start to believe.
Indy
To me, this team (and the next one) are perfect candidates for a mirage team. Right now, Indy looks great. Super great. As everyone has probably heard by now, they haven’t punted yet in two games. Amazing! However, Miami fucking sucks, and Denver should have won that game.
This is another one of those teams where I just don’t believe in the QB. Yes, he looks very good through two games—and, muy importante—their running game is absolutely killing it. If that stays consistent, I’ll probably be wrong, this team will win 10 games or more, and they’ll win the division. Because that’s how you protect a shitty QB.
However, I’m still trying to shake that scene at the end of last year, when this team had basically quit and everybody was ready for Steichen(sp?) to be fired. Maybe it’s a new year and maybe winning cures everything? Maybe. Anyway, I want to see how Jones does once he has to play outdoors. That starts this week, btw, in Nashville.
Arizona
This is another thing that could be good! They also could blow. Like Indy, their first opponent sucked. Arguably, so did their second. And yet, in both cases, they had to hold on for dear life to win. Conversely, especially last week, they were way ahead very early. So maybe them almost being 0-2 isn’t really a thing. But it is enough to make me question if this team is any good. Again, they may be, but their early season schedule is so friendly.
This week they get SF coming off a long-ass road trip without their starting QB. Yes, then they have Seattle at home, but then they get the Titans at home. We may not get a sense of how good this team really is, even if they lose to Seattle, until Week 6 when they go @Indy and then back home for GB. My guess is, maybe my hope is, they’re like 4-1 heading into those. It might provide some opportunity.
Middling teams
Cleveland
Dallas
Chicago
LVR
Pitt
Houston
Jax
Cincy
To me, these are teams that, sorry boys, are already playing for next year. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because I don’t think any of them really thought this year would be their year. Other than maybe Pitt.
Cleveland
The Browns played better than the score indicated at Baltimore, but they still got thumped. These things happen to bad teams. I do still believe in their defense. I do still believe they’ll have a game where Flacco puts up 30 points in a win. But I also think, slowly but surely, their defense will be on the field too much, it will get run down, and sooner than later we’ll see them start the QB carousel.
Dallas
This team’s offense is great—except now they’re without their starting center for like 4-6 weeks. At the same time, this might be the worst secondary in the league. Which is why getting rid of Parsons was so dumb. If they can’t get home, they’re gonna get cooked. Regularly. Because all of these issues are structural, this won’t be just an early season thing, imo. Dallas’ only chance is to outscore teams. I’m betting overs.
Chicago
I don’t know if Caleb sucks or not. But I think the team does. I think there was too much hype on this team making too big of a jump this year. Maybe they grow as the season progresses, which is what you have to hope for if you’re a Bears fan. But I think it’s readjusting expectations time in Chicago. And really, I don’t even want to be involved with them right now unless something jumps out at me in terms of a spot. And I want to stay away from their totals unless, like last week, I think someone can put 40+ on them. Which, maybe Dallas can?
LVR
So, last week I said I was going to revise my stock on this team upward. I’m not totally going to revise it downward after last night, but last night was the perfect reason why Geno Smith is still a journeyman starter. That game should have been close. That game could have, maybe should have easily, hit the over. Turns out, neither thing had a chance because Geno had one of those games that inconsistent QBs have. He was just bad. Now, that won’t be every game, or he’d be benched. More likely, it’s going to be one out of every three games. But that’s enough to keep this team at or below .500. To me, they’re also a spot/situational play.
Pitt
I’m sorry, Joe is just one of those people who enjoys rooting against Aaron Rogers. It’s just who I am. It’s like rooting against the Bosas, only a little more satisfying somehow. Again, this was a game I watched and I’ve watched Pittsburgh twice now. I’m also 2-0 in their games. The problem with Rogers, imo, is what happens to anybody who’s ever played sports as we get older. He still thinks he can make all the throws. And like 75% of the time, he’s right. But every day that goes by, that number gets a little lower.
So in this game, like in the first game, you saw some vintage Rogers throws. But in both games, just like you saw when Brett Farve was going through this stage of his career, there were some really terrible throws. Stuff back across his body, into traffic. Why? Because he used to be able to make that throw. As the season goes on, that will continue.
Worse than that, right now, this defense is getting cooked. Justin Fields did it to them. Sam Darnold did it to them. They have a run here of some questionable QBs coming up, @NE, Minny, Cleveland, @Cincy. But as the season goes on, I feel like this team may start getting housed if this defense doesn’t come together. Like I’ve said, I’ve watched this team twice. And they may, they probably should, win this week, but I do not like them generally on the year.
Houston
Jax
Cincy
Could any of these three teams be mistakenly placed in this tier? Maybe. But if that were true, wouldn’t Houston and Jax have held on and won this weekend? Sure, Jax had a bad call go against them. And Houston did have Baker 4th and 10 to ice the game. And yet …
They’re clearly in different stages of their development. Houston should be further along in building/sustaining a division winner. And maybe they come together as the season goes a long. Remember, we’re not all that far removed from the team that went into Arrowhead in the playoffs and played pretty well. Likewise, Jax has a new coach, but maybe they grow as the season goes on. Maybe TLaw starts to figure it out. But can we count on any of that?
Meanwhile, Cincy is now without Burrow and as serviceable as Browning has been, does anyone have any faith in that defense? Houston and the Jags play each other this weekend so I can just pass on that, and Browning goes to Minnesota to play Carson Wentz? Again, pass. Let’s revisit these teams in a week or two
Bad teams
NYG
Carolina
NO
Miami
NYJ
If anybody has any reason I shouldn’t be putting these teams at the bottom of the league, I’m happy to hear it. Great job by the Giants competing against Dallas, but they lost. Great job by Carolina coming back last week, but they’re also 0-2. The Jets have some talent, on both sides of the ball, but now Fields is concussed and they’re honestly rebuilding so …
I don’t really see how you do anything but find perfect spots for these teams or fade them. The two caveats would be, what happens when the Giants change QBs, and what happens when Miami fires McDaniels. Other than that … yuck.
And that’s it. If you read this far, that’s a lot of words and you should be very proud because nobody reads any more. Well done. Here’s something from me, to you.
Wash ML/GB ML/Seattle ML – pays anywhere around +140. I also think you can put Baltimore in there somewhere if one of those worries you. Or do two team RRs with them to knock down the juice. I like the spots for all four of those teams this week.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Probably is elite. #1 picks at QB outside of JaWalrus don't typically just fade away. Good on him for getting out of Cleveland where he would end up being an Eagles and Broncos fan at the end of the day....which I think is what Browns fans eventually do. God it's great to have @Joe Public back in the mix.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I found this yesterday and I like it a lot. Obviously the huge caveat is the small sample size—for example, Miami being so god-awful probably skews both Indy and NE somewhat, but to me it's a good visualization of where we are right now.
Which is also to say, this chart has a shelf-life that probably expires after next week at the latest. But still, I found it helpful.
KJ
Minister of Communication
I like this, hope you can put it in every week. Lower left is obviously where you don't want to be which makes sense outside of KC and Pit Which will likely be in for a bit of a correction. I'm not so sure on Houston. Stroud regression has been really bad.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I genuinely hope the dude I grabbed this from does this every week. He's a pretty solid data nerd (in a good way) so ... maybe. Also, you're so right about Stroud. And it looks like it's 100% mental right now with him. I missed a good bit of that game live, but seeing highlights after the fact, and realizing that's how my Houston ticket lost. Tough love right there.
Great spot for Houston this week IMO. I heard someone talking about it today and it's something that's easy to forget each year, but Week 3 is a massive, massive week for teams that are 0-2. You can't start 0-3 and expect to have a playoff season. Certainly not if one or more of those losses is in your division.
So you're going to get some big efforts from some winless teams this week. And if you have them in spots against teams that may be looking ahead or for whatever reason may not be taking a team too seriously, there may be value.
For example, above I mentioned that ML parlay. My biggest concern in it though is Green Bay. And I consider GB to be playing the best football in the league right now. But, they're on the road, out of conference, with injuries, against a good defense, and a Cleveland team that is 0-2 with two division losses. You're going to get Cleveland's best game this week. It probably won't be enough to win without some GB mistakes, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this game is tight most, if not all, of the way through.