Week 2 thoughts/plays

D-Woww

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Gonna post leans and thoughts, listen for feedback, and then finalize plays in this thread.

Really like Cincy at home; what can I say I am a huge fan of this team. 72% on Baltimore bc of how well they played but it was the Bills and they were home. Gimme a home dog in a division rivalry where you can make the case that the dog is the better team with 72% on the road dog any day.

KC/Pittsburgh: gonna play Steelers -5.5, over or both. KC's d is atrocious and the final score from last week doesn't even do them justice. SD missed many opportunities for more. Pittsburgh looked real bad but they looked real bad last year week one @ Cleveland too. Think they throw on KC all day and KC will get theirs. I see this as a 38-24 Steelers win.

I am a huge advocate of not overreacting, but I don't think I can unsee what I saw with the Bills. This team was destroyed by a good, not great team that played backups for almost a full half. They have no QB, no o-line and no defense. Buffalo is a tough spot to play at times, but were not in the cold of December yet and LA needs a win after a week 1 home loss. I don't see how this isnt a dd win and I don't mind being with the public on this one.

Falcons looked terrible week one but they tend to play like ass in philly and they'll be back home against a Panthers team that did cover for me last week but was far from dominant. Think I like them to take care of business here.

May jump on Minny +1 in anticipation of Rodgers missing time and just buying off of it if he is ok. Maybe even keeping it; he wont be 100% if he does play

LA -11.5 is a large spread but I can't see how Arizona is going to score against them at all. This has 34-6 blowout written all over it. At the very least this will be a tease. Maybe tease to under a TD and then tease LAC to -1 for an all LA teaser?


SF -3 looks too easy. Talk me off of it.

Denver -5 will be a play. Oakland is straight trash. We discussed this in another thread; they are the oldest roster in the NFL traveling on a short week to the altitude of Denver.


Seattle/Chicago over 43.5 looks good.


I think we really need to watch the weather for these games this week, but as of now my leans are:

Cincy +1
Pittsburgh -5.5 and over 50.5
LAC -3
Atl -5
Minny +1
LAR -11.5
SF -3
Denver -5
Seattle/Chicago over 43.5

Whatta you guys think? Talk me off of some, call me stupid for some.

Locked in plays after discussions:

Cincy +1
Falcons/Charges/Rams ML parlay (rams ml not out yet but I expect this to be around +105)
Rams -11.5
Broncos -5.5
Bears -3 -120
Minnesota +1
 
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Be careful on the SF line, Dan. Most books have closed it after last night as the Lions played. I played it yesterday when it opened at -3 before the Lions game, but that number is probably going to open around 5 or 6 once it gets re-released today. If you've got a local that has it at 3, grab it now.

As bad a situational spot in the league, Raiders, oldest team in the league, off the shortest week possible go into the altitude to play the Broncos with zero sign of a Raiders pass rush and Carr as efficient as a condom with a hole in it. That number last week was 3.5, GOY line was 1, and I'd be shocked if we're not looking at another 6/6.5 when it gets re-released today. If it's available with a local, play it.

I said this in the what have you learned thread...I'll bet Rodgers doesn't start this week and am shocked that there are still Vikes plus numbers out there. And as I look now, that's another game that's off the board.

This is the first season I've dedicated a portion of my bankroll to futures/early GOY plays and the following week lines shortly after open. Going to continue to make this a practice with my offshores as I grabbed 2u on Minny +1.5, 2u on SF -3 (played before last night's game) and Denver -3.5 (played last week). If you're playing at Dimes or any of the other big offshores you need to incorporate this into your handicapping. NFL numbers go batshit crazy based on injury news and based on Sunday morning steam.
 
Just going to post it here now as I just grabbed this off Dimes... Dan, think you've got some old numbers mixed in to your lean list, so maybe the current numbers could sway some of those. Here's what I just copied of 5D

1536671166508.png
 
I'll be all over the Eagles at -3. Line at LEAST 3 to 3.5 points short for sure. GL doing what you did to the Saints to that Eagles defense.

I don't care whether Fournette plays or not, Jacksonville is the better team RIGHT NOW ... injuries and suspensions hurting the hoodies. Killer spot to go on the road to face that defense. Plus they can matchup with Gronk as well as any team in the league.

I don't care if it gets to -6.5 I'll be playing the Bears. Seattle is bad. SUPER BAD. No o line. No Baldwin. Defense that is a shell of its former self. Its Russ and the misfits. Brandon Marshall is 73 years old and will be a top target for them. They can't run...they can't protect and they are living off of who they once were, not who they are right now. Hopefully, Nagy, doesn't play the game like a sissy ass conservative afraid-to-lose fuckhead like he did SUnday night in handing a game to Green Bay.

Guess I'm super stupid...can someone share me how that Saints defense who just gave up 48 at home now gets to again lay DD to a way, way, way more talented team? Again, books looking at the brown and orange colors and the gold and black colors and not analyzing the talent in those unis.

KC in a BRUTAL schedule spot. 2nd of 2 consecutive roadies in a stadium they've played like crap at nearly every time they've been there. Think both D's blow chunks so we might be looking at points if the weather stays decent.

More later, kids. BOL to everyone this week.
 
few things:

1. I used the action network app for the line, so much for that (face palm)
2. weather looks ok for sunday in Pittsburgh, looked that one up already bc rain can kill an over. that o/u is now up to 53 too
3. Unfortunately my book doesn't do the GOY stuff, but you do have to remember that the injuries can hurt you as much as they can help you. But I do agree that this, as well as the "in game" betting, are modern tools that cappers need to incorporate.
4. May join you on Chicago, although I do wish Mitch and Nagy showed me a little more....ill be honest RW scares me. He is one of the few guys in the league who can win games on his own.
5. I do think that the offensive style of TB is much different than Cle and much more likely to score points. I think I am just staying away from that side altogether though.

Definitely have to reconsider these with the new lines.
 
Falcons/Chargers/Rams ML parlay will prob be around even money or so and I think that's as good of a 3 teamer as there is
 
@scarf31 I think Fournette is a big deal. The guy is our workhorse, the focus of our offense. Yeldon doesn't have the body to sustain the same workload so we need him. Not just him, but the way Bortles becomes actually a pretty good quarterback when the playaction is working. Otherwise he's going to be awful and no matter how beast Jax defense is it'll wear out over time
 
VirginiaCavs said:
@scarf31 I think Fournette is a big deal. The guy is our workhorse, the focus of our offense. Yeldon doesn't have the body to sustain the same workload so we need him. Not just him, but the way Bortles becomes actually a pretty good quarterback when the playaction is working. Otherwise he's going to be awful and no matter how beast Jax defense is it'll wear out over time
Click to expand...

I never said Fournette isn’t a big deal. I said even without him Jax is a better team RIGHT NOW in all facets of the game, considering the Pats situation with injuries/suspensions.
 
scarf31 said:
I never said Fournette isn’t a big deal. I said even without him Jax is a better team RIGHT NOW in all facets of the game, considering the Pats situation with injuries/suspensions.
Click to expand...

Didn't realize you felt that strongly about the disparity in team quality. Just think it's very hard for Jax to move the ball without being able to lean on its run game, Bortles needs to show the form that he did in the AFC Champ game when he was making a lot of really nice throws and the Jags need to be show a lot of very creative play-calling again
 
D-Woww said:
is fournette gonna be one of those guys who always has some nagging injury hes battling with?
Click to expand...

Think he’s already proven to us he’s going to be coninually knicked up year in year out. He’s just that type of runner. As long as he’s healthy come January is all that matters big picture though.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Didn't realize you felt that strongly about the disparity in team quality. Just think it's very hard for Jax to move the ball without being able to lean on its run game, Bortles needs to show the form that he did in the AFC Champ game when he was making a lot of really nice throws and the Jags need to be show a lot of very creative play-calling again
Click to expand...
The defenses on this team are night and day. Jax is as stacked as they come...Pats use September as a warmup and play their worst. This game in January is a different story.

Plus, the Pats have practically no receivers. 12 has Gronk and Jax can defend him as good as anyone with their talent right now. This Pats team has significantly less talent than NE teams of the past.
 
scarf31 said:
The defenses on this team are night and day. Jax is as stacked as they come...Pats use September as a warmup and play their worst. This game in January is a different story.

Plus, the Pats have practically no receivers. 12 has Gronk and Jax can defend him as good as anyone with their talent right now. This Pats team has significantly less talent than NE teams of the past.
Click to expand...

Yea gotta say I feel really good about Jax defenders not having to deal with a jump ball monster like AB or Odell.

Jax missing top receiver too tho. Keelan Cole is #1 guy.
 
yeah I think im avoiding that one. Gotta trust BB to game plan for an offense with so limited weapons. Could be a fun one to just watch or maybe get involved with live.

Question for you VC since you are a fan; im a big Corey Grant fan, he seems to do well whenever he gets a chance. why not make him the "fournette" guy and keep yeldon in the receiving back role that his body is more fit for?
 
D-Woww said:
yeah I think im avoiding that one. Gotta trust BB to game plan for an offense with so limited weapons. Could be a fun one to just watch or maybe get involved with live.

Question for you VC since you are a fan; im a big Corey Grant fan, he seems to do well whenever he gets a chance. why not make him the "fournette" guy and keep yeldon in the receiving back role that his body is more fit for?
Click to expand...

I don‘t think he‘s ever been an every down between the tackles guy. I looked into his college career it seems like Jags use him as Auburn did, only by designing special plays for him to easily get into open space where he has a nice burst, great 4.3 speed, agility even the ability to truck a defender. So yea jet sweeps, tricky screen plays, etc. he looks great there because those designs play to his strength. But hes not a bulking bruiser like Fournette who can grind it out in between the tackles where guys will stack the box and where holes (let alone big gaping ones) won‘t often open. I dont think he‘s as effective without LF because he‘s a change of pace back by role and that‘s why he doesn‘t get more carries. If LF is injured i‘m sure he‘ll see an uptick in touches (along with Yeldon), the Jags will have to gameplan differently for him, more creative run plays to generate more holes up the middle and especially lateral runs like fake fullback toss outside

Sorry didn‘t mean to write a novel
 
So big ben is a bit banged up. they say its not a big deal and is only limiting his practice but im going to wait and see before pulling the trigger
 
updated card of locked in plays:

Cincy +1
Falcons/Charges/Rams ML parlay (rams ml not out yet but I expect this to be around +105)
Rams -11.5
Broncos -5.5
Bears -3 -120
Minnesota +1

few thoughts: just don't want any crazy backdoors so I ml'ed the falcons and charges with the rams. rams should win by 20 so im playing them again against the spread.
the buffalo line is just a bit shady, logically I cant see them hanging but 82% on SD and the line is standing firm at 7.

still think chiefs/steelers is a shootout but 52.5 is just a tad bit too high for a young qb on the road. KC has struggled in Pittsburgh before, and I Want to see the steelers offense look right for a game too. and bought the hook on Chicago to protect against a fg game

wanna get Minnny +1 in now and wait and see Rodgers news. I may keep it either way but it does seem to be the feeling that Rodgers may be out, and some books still have the line up
 
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