Week 2 Thoughs and Plays

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
3unit plays: 2-0 +6units
2unit plays: 1-2 -2.4units
1unit plays: 2-1 +2.25units
ML Parlays: 1-0 +4.92units
Favorites: 4-3
Dogs: 1-0
SouthCar: 1-0


Overall: 6-3 +10.77units





Greek just came out


Getting a piece of this now


SC-9.........1unit



Will see what happens this week w/ the line and the things on SC side of things but I want some of this number



Will update this stuff later
 
Last edited:
Leans:


WVU-8.5
SoMiss +17
ND-20 / ND 1ST HALF
OK ST -13
WMU-6
UConn-7
UL Monroe +14.5
Tulsa -20
FAU -13.5
 
TT -8.5..............2units


I realize the line is now 10, it is still, too small.


First off, where do they get off making this line?

Nevada is good bet ATS at home, I understand that. Their QB Kaepernick is a good player, they are a team capable of scoring some points, BUT, their defense is bad, they will have trouble getting pressure on Harrell, and their secondary lacks playing experience. Now, that inexperienced secondary has to face the premier passing attack in the country with a deadly accurate QB and a coach who has no shame in scoring?

Is Nevada going to scoring more than 40 points in this game? I can easily see TT touching 50+
 
ETG if I may let me talk you off the ND/SDSU first half line a bit in favor of the full game.

I'll just list the reasons why I think a full game spread is a better option than a 1st half:

SDSU has played a game. Regardless of what happened they won't have the 1st game confusion that we saw all weekend, especially ST blunders. Alot of these problems get ironed out during halftime.

SDSU is thin up front. This will be most noticeable in the 2nd half when they haven't had the ability to shuffle fresh bodies in/out. The Aztecs have a chance, however small, to hang for a half but will eventually wear down.

ND will go for blood here. With a spread of 3 TD's their is no reason ND would let up until extremely late. Think 5 TD's. I'd be shocked if they went into the half up 28-3 only to let SDSU come back and make it a 35-17 game. Weiss needs to show the ND faithful that this team is different from last year and what better way than a 1st game blowout.

The emberassment of the Cal Poly loss will show more in the motivational department for the Aztecs in the 1st half then then 2nd half. One could see them coming out fired up and keeping the game close in the 1st half. This motivation should be overcome by a pure talent gap.

With the injuries that the Aztecs have on their DLine and their OLine being in shambles as well I think you're better off letting 48 minutes of football overcome the random INT's and every other random occurence that may happen in one half.

Just my .02c though.
 
3unit plays: 2-0 +6units
2unit plays: 1-2 -2.4units
1unit plays: 2-1 +2.25units
ML Parlays: 1-0 +4.92units
Favorites: 4-3
Dogs: 1-0
SouthCar: 1-0


Overall: 6-3 +10.77units



Updated Card:


SC -9......1unit
SC-10.....1unit
TT-8.5.....2unit
 
ETG if I may let me talk you off the ND/SDSU first half line a bit in favor of the full game.

I'll just list the reasons why I think a full game spread is a better option than a 1st half:

SDSU has played a game. Regardless of what happened they won't have the 1st game confusion that we saw all weekend, especially ST blunders. Alot of these problems get ironed out during halftime.

SDSU is thin up front. This will be most noticeable in the 2nd half when they haven't had the ability to shuffle fresh bodies in/out. The Aztecs have a chance, however small, to hang for a half but will eventually wear down.

ND will go for blood here. With a spread of 3 TD's their is no reason ND would let up until extremely late. Think 5 TD's. I'd be shocked if they went into the half up 28-3 only to let SDSU come back and make it a 35-17 game. Weiss needs to show the ND faithful that this team is different from last year and what better way than a 1st game blowout.

The emberassment of the Cal Poly loss will show more in the motivational department for the Aztecs in the 1st half then then 2nd half. One could see them coming out fired up and keeping the game close in the 1st half. This motivation should be overcome by a pure talent gap.

With the injuries that the Aztecs have on their DLine and their OLine being in shambles as well I think you're better off letting 48 minutes of football overcome the random INT's and every other random occurence that may happen in one half.

Just my .02c though.

wow, thank you for these comments. I am going to stick with the full-game because you've made a good enough case to stay away from the 1st half.


Having some trouble cutting down my leans and picking the games I want to play. Current leans:

WVU -8: Think w/ the upset of a well-known program like VT, there is value in WVU here. Friends said WVU looked like dog shit in WK1 but I think they will play better and ECU has their attention. Think like goes up from here though and not down.

SoMiss +17.5: Auburn didn't look so hot on offense in WK1, they have some injuries to deal with, they don't have the game breakers imo here, still adjusting to life with a new offense, game is at 12:30pm too and from my experience of going to early games, the crowd sucks and the team laying a lot of points can be sluggish. Force Auburn to throw the ball and don't make any mistakes and set them up with good field position. Both teams want to run, clock will be moving, strong lean to the points here.

ND -21.5: I think the reports from the forum are pretty detailed enough here, SDST sucks and ND has to make a statement.

UConn -7: I know Temple should of maybe won the game last year and they got robbed by the refs but I think UConn is salty enough on defense here to win this game by a fair margin. I am worried about Lorenzen sucking at QB in this game and would prefer if UConn kept the ball on the ground. Temple couldn't run on Army, they will not run on UConn which makes them 1-Dimensional and UConn pass defense is pretty good.

UL Monroe +12.5: Please tell me how Arkansas can be laying anything like this right now? This is more of a "prove me wrong" type play. They were losing in the friggen 4th last week to ultra-super-power Western Illinois and UL Monroe played better than 34-0 versus Auburn.

Other games of interest:

CMU-6
usf -13.5
Mem -3.5
 
WVU -8: The only reason I am not on this game right now is because I am paying attention to the weather. Severe rain on a grass field hurts WVU because of their speed advantage and I just don't want to be involved in any rainy games. This series has been close 1 time in the last 6 years.

07: 48-7
06: 27-10
05: 20-15
04: 56-23
03: 48-7
02: 37-17

WVU didn't look great last week against NOVA, even up 31-7 and ECU beats VT on national TV and the line is WVU-8 and dropping? I actually like what WVU did in WK1 though, work on the passing game. They know they can run read option left, read option right, all day and beat Nova without coming out of the locker room but they came out and treated it like a scrimmage and tried to diversify the offense. Doc Holliday is a good OC (see Florida), I believe that and maybe see a little harder offense to defend this year. I believe WVU is actually thinking long term here because USF has had their number on defense. Looking at PR's, this line should be least -14 on a neutral field, give ECU their 3 for homefield and you get -11 so I feel like I have good value, especially if this drops some more.
 
ND -22...........1unit


I would play this game for more but I still have to see ND play to believe my eyes. They should however do whatever they please on SDST and make a statement for the fans that at least they can beat bad teams.

There is not much to say about this game, wish I had an even 3-TD but its whatever.

Thank you JPicks for keeping me off the 1st half
 
Saturday: Afternoon showers. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the low 70s

Ok with just showers, sure I can see this going over 50, I feel stronger about WVU covering though because totals are not something I am confident about.
 
Updated Card:

SC -9......1unit
SC-10.....1unit
TT-8.5.....2unit
ND-22...1unit
WVU-7.5...2unit


ML Parlay: 1unit to win 4.97unit

Cuse-WVU-TT-Wyoming-BYU-West Mich

Scary ML parlay with Cuse in it but hope they have just enough to beat shitty Akron.
 
Back
Top