Week 2 Schrute Bucks

[Schrute]

Record to date: 53-29, +18.50 units week 1. Lot of half unit bets is why the record doesn't mesh with units as is typical
FBS Sides 16-4 +13.90 units
FBS Totals 7-5 +0.75 units
1H/1Q 1-1 -0.10 units
2H/Live 3-6 -2.50 units
FCS Sides 19-10 +5.37 units
FCS Totals 5-1 +1.30 units
ML 0-1 -0.50 units
Parlay 0-1 -0.50 units
Teaser 0-1 -0.50 units
Props 2-0 +1.28 units

FBS Sides:
WKY -1 vs La Tech 0.55-0.50
FAU +19 vs Miami 0.55-0.50
Utah -10.5 vs Utah St 1.10-1.00
Florida -14 vs ECU 1.10-1.00
UTSA +22.5 vs Kansas St 0.55-0.50
Iowa St +6 vs Iowa 0.55-0.50
Memphis -11 at Kansas 0.55-0.50
Akron +11.5 vs Pitt 0.55-0.50
Arizona -11 at Nevada 1.10-1.00
SMU -1 vs North Texas 1.10-1.00
TAMU -26 vs Ball St 0.55-0.50
Michigan St -1 vs Oregon 0.55-0.50
UNLV +30 vs UCLA 0.55-0.50
Louisville -12 vs Houston 0.55-0.50
Ole Miss -23.5 vs Fresno St 1.10-1.00
Wake Forest +5.5 at Syracuse 0.55-0.50
Rutgers -2 vs Washington St 1.10-1.00
Miss St +4 vs LSU 0.55-0.50
Colorado St +5.5 vs Minnesota 0.55-0.50
Maryland -9 vs Bowling Green 0.55-0.50
EMU +13.5 at Wyoming 0.55-0.50
Penn St -17 -120 vs Buffalo 0.60-0.50
Marshall -3 -105 at Ohio 0.53-0.50
Missouri -10 at Arkansas St 0.60-0.50
Tulane +31 at Georgia Tech 0.55-0.50
San Diego St +14 at Cal 0.55-0.50
MTSU +35 at Alabama 0.55-0.50
Pitt -12 at Akron 0.55-0.50 (buy off of an Akron play I made based off of a math error on PRs)
Texas -14 vs Rice 0.55-0.50
UVA +13.5 vs Notre Dame 0.55-0.50
Texas Tech -20.5 vs UTEP 0.55-0.50

MoneyLines:
Temple ML +225 0.50-1.13
TN +120 vs Oklahoma 0.50-0.60

FBS Totals:
Maryland/Bowling Green O65 1.10-1.00
Clemson/App St O58 1.10-1.00
Fresno/Ole Miss O56 0.55-0.50
UGA/Vandy U56 0.55-0.50
Iowa/Iowa St U54 0.55-0.50
WKY/La Tech O61 0.55-0.50
Hawaii/tOSU O59.5 0.55-0.50
LSU/Miss St O50 0.55-0.50
Wisconsin/Miami OH U52 0.55-0.50
EMU/Wyoming U52.5 0.55-0.50
Cincinnati TT U30.5 vs Temple 0.55-0.50
Ohio St TT O54 vs Hawaii 0.55-0.50
Boise TT U28.5 at BYU 0.55-0.50
TAMU TT O47 vs Ball St 0.55-0.50
Army/UCONN O47 0.55-0.50
UMASS TT O24 at Colorado 0.55-0.50
Kentucky TT O24 at SoCar 0.50-0.50

2H/LIVE:
Oregon St +8.5 LIVE at Michigan 0.55-0.50
BGSU ML Live 0.25-0.60

FCS Sides:
Southern -18.5 at Miss Valley St 0.60-0.50
UT Martin -44 vs Bethel College 0.60-0.50
Kent St -16.5 vs Delaware St 0.60-0.50
Baylor -50 vs Lamar 0.60-0.50
Jacksonville PK at Newberry 0.60-0.50
Morehead St +24 at VMI 0.60-0.50
Sacred Heart -25 at Valparaiso 0.60-0.50
Eastern Wash +10 at Northern Iowa 0.60-0.50
NoDakSt -30.5 vs Weber St 0.60-0.50
Villanova -3 at Fordham 0.60-0.50
SoCarSt +14.5 vs Coastal Carolina 0.60-0.50
Gardner Webb -3 vs Elon 0.60-0.50
WCU +3.5 at Citadel 0.60-0.50
Georgetown -7 vs Marist 0.60-0.50
Houston Baptist +21 vs Northern Colorado 0.60-0.50
ODU -27.5 vs Norfolk St 0.60-0.50
Jackson St +17.5 vs Tennessee St 0.60-0.50
Jacksonville St +43 at Auburn 0.60-0.50
Albany -15 vs Rhode Island 0.60-0.50
Drake +18.5 at North Dakota 0.60-0.50
Idaho St -8 vs Portland St 0.60-0.50

FCS Totals:
Norfolk St/ODU O55 0.60-0.50
NCA&T/UNC O57 0.60-0.50
Indiana St/Purdue O51.5 0.60-0.50
Lehigh/James Madison O61 0.60-0.50
Citadel/WCU O55 0.60-0.50
Davidson/Catawba U61 0.60-0.50
Incarnate/McNeese O47 0.60-0.50
Western NM/San Diego U67 0.60-0.50

Props:
Driskel O19.5 Completions 0.75-0.50
Chuckie Keeton U231.5 yards passing -105 0.52-0.50

 

[dudleysdad]

There he is.
Need ur opinion on the meac/swac battle!

 

[Schrute]

WKY -1 vs La Tech 0.55-0.50
FAU +19 vs Miami 0.55-0.50
Utah -10.5 vs Utah St 1.10-1.00
Florida -14 vs ECU 1.10-1.00
UTSA +22.5 vs Kansas St 0.55-0.50
Iowa St +6 vs Iowa 0.55-0.50
Memphis -11 at Kansas 0.55-0.50
Akron +11.5 vs Pitt 0.55-0.50
Arizona -11 at Nevada 1.10-1.00
SMU -1 vs North Texas 1.10-1.00
TAMU -26 vs Ball St 0.55-0.50
Michigan St -1 vs Oregon 0.55-0.50
UNLV +30 vs UCLA 0.55-0.50

 

[Schrute]

My PR have

SoCar St -26.5
I do have Bama St/Tenn St as a PK though so I'm on Bama St in the late one

 

[B.A.R.]

You borrow Fondy's calculator do finish up week one record?

 

[RetroVK]

Well done Dwight

 

[Schrute]

Haha thanks guys

only on pace for about 1000 regular season plays this season

 

[The Capping Genius]

Fantastic week 1 Doug Schrutie! Marvelous!

 

[Schrute]

Thank you TCG

 

[Schrute]

Thank you sirs

Louisville -12 vs Houston 0.55-0.50
Ole Miss -23.5 vs Fresno St 1.10-1.00

 

[twinkie13]

Very impressive. It seems you put the work in and it paid of.

nicely done.

 

[Canes1]

Good job my man.

 

[Schrute]

Thanks dudes

Wake Forest +5.5 at Syracuse 0.55-0.50, likely to add some ML here especially if line doesn't crawl down too much

 

[rochclone]

Great week Dwight. Will be on Iowa State plus 6 as well. Also like WKU.

 

[bull]

:cheers3:Kudos., Salaam Salaam,and Bravo.
Best week I've seen anyone have
Ever

 

[P-Unit]

damn dude, goes to show all the work you did in the offseason paid off very well. Keep it up boss.

 

[Schrute]

appreciate the kind words

A smart man would probably decrease volume. I find it unlikely I do that

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Jesus, Dwight, nice week!

 

[bloodhound]

Congrats on wk One, Nice work
GL this wk Dwight

 

[mrob]

awesome :cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

damn dude, goes to show all the work you did in the offseason paid off very well. Keep it up boss.

+1

 

[Schrute]

Adding:
Rutgers -2 vs Washington St 1.10-1.00
Maryland/Bowling Green O65 1.10-1.00
Clemson/App St O58 1.10-1.00
Fresno/Ole Miss O56 0.55-0.50
UGA/Vandy U56 0.55-0.50
Iowa/Iowa St U54 0.55-0.50

 

[Schrute]

Miss St +4 vs LSU 0.55-0.50

I have the line LSU -1 and it's because I'm higher on Messy than most who have this line higher. I'm not necessarily low on LSU. This game will tell me a lot about my PR on Messy. A lot of people I respect have LSU and that's why it's just a half unit play

 

[Schrute]

Colorado St +5.5 vs Minnesota 0.55-0.50
Maryland -9 vs Bowling Green 0.55-0.50


Also shit I just realized I did the math wrong on my Pitt vs Akron PR calculation yesterday. My current line is actually Pitt -14.5 so if I can get 11.5 or 12 then I will be buying off of that one. Fuck that sucks but glad I realized it

 

[Schrute]

Memphis/Kansas O56 0.55-0.50
UCF/Stanford U43 0.55-0.50

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Hi Dwight -- interested in your thoughts on the APP @ CLEM Over. My numbers really like the Under in this game, showing more value on that total than any other on the board right now.

 

[Schrute]

Hi Dwight -- interested in your thoughts on the APP @ CLEM Over. My numbers really like the Under in this game, showing more value on that total than any other on the board right now.

No problem and this is more of a feel play than a numbers play as a Clemson fan. I played the over against Wofford last week at 47 and 49. I think it closed at 58 or 59 which was right on the money according to the score.

If you like the under here I hope you made significant adjustments to Clemson's expected totals after the 2014 season. Clemson's 2014 defense now has Vic Beasley, Grady Jarrett, Stephone Anthony, Tony Steward and Tavaris Barnes made 53 man rosters. DeShaun Williams, Corey Crawford and Josh Watson all made it to the last round of cuts and are expected to be on practice squads. Regulars in the secondary Robert Smith and Garry Peters were cut earlier. That is a shit ton of defensive attrition and it's hard not to expect a drop off.

Regarding Clemson's offense over half the stats generated last year were with Cole Stoudt at QB which led to a far more conservative approach and a slower pace. With Watson back at the helm the pace will be fast as hell again and the points per game will go up significantly. The loss of Williams at WR hurts but it's Clemson's deepest position. I dropped the PR 0.25 points with his loss which isn't that big of a hit.

App St pace of play is pretty average but they did run a shit ton of plays on Saturday. Clemson's pace should be top 20 easily. I don't see Appalachian St holding Clemson to less than 40 points here. In games where Watson played more than half the game last year, Clemson's lowest offensive output was 35 against South Carolina. FSU did hold them to 17 and he did technically play over half the game but turnovers killed them and he still averaged 9.6ypa against the Noles. He put up 41 against NC St and 50 against UNC. I think Clemson gets 42-45ish here and I don't think they can keep App St under 20.

 

[Schrute]

Kent St -16.5 vs Delaware St 0.60-0.50
Baylor -50 vs Lamar 0.60-0.50
Jacksonville PK at Newberry 0.60-0.50
Norfolk St/ODU O55 0.60-0.50
NCA&T/UNC O57 0.60-0.50

 

[Frank Costanza]

Wow, fantastic week. Well done!

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Thx for the info. Yeah, I had to recheck my stats and I hadn't bumped up CLEM's offensive projections enough to compensate for when Watson missed time, even though I knew he had. Looking at my stats I see that CLEM did slow the pace a lot in the loss to GT, but other than that they weren't far off their usual pace, which is faster than the average team, yes. So CLEM will probably play faster than my projections. Even after the adjustments I'm still showing value on the Under, but I'll probably buy back 1/2 and make it a regular play. Thanks Dwight.

 

[Schrute]

Watson went down 1Q of GT which contributed to slowing things down as well

 

[Mags]

Great start, Dwight :shake:

 

[ProV1Colt]

:bow:

 

[Coolslaw1]

no thoughts tonight?

 

[Schrute]

Morehead St +24 at VMI 0.60-0.50
Sacred Heart -25 at Valparaiso 0.60-0.50
Eastern Wash +10 at Northern Iowa 0.60-0.50


EWU is a PR play only. TERRIBLE spot...actually about as bad of a spot as one could imagine

 

[Schrute]

no thoughts tonight?

Grabbed Hokies +14.5 on Saturday. My PR has it +10.5 in Blacksburg

It's posted in Week1 thread though

 

[Schrute]

NoDakSt -30.5 vs Weber St 0.60-0.50
Villanova -3 at Fordham 0.60-0.50
SoCarSt +14.5 vs Coastal Carolina 0.60-0.50
Gardner Webb -3 vs Elon 0.60-0.50
WCU +3.5 at Citadel 0.60-0.50
Georgetown -7 vs Marist 0.60-0.50
Houston Baptist +21 vs Northern Colorado 0.60-0.50

 

[Play2win]

Great work, BOL week #2

 

[CHSGTMD]

very nice my man, keep it rolling and appreciate all your posts and picks (wish I would tailed lol)

 

[Schrute]

Thanks Play and CHS

GL this week

 

[Timh]

Well done Dwight, BOL in Week 2.

 

[bones]

opcorn: great job...if i had any fortitude, i'd str8 tail you this week.keep it up

 

[captjohn67]

nice work and keep it up (clover)

no jax state??

 

[Schrute]

Thanks guys. No Jax St this week I don't think. They were good to me on the road last week though

Added;
Clemson/App St O58.5 1.10-1.00

 

[Schrute]

Adding:

WKY/La Tech O61 0.55-0.50
Hawaii/tOSU O59.5 0.55-0.50
ODU -27.5 vs Norfolk St 0.60-0.50
Jackson St +17.5 vs Tennessee St
Indiana St/Purdue O51.5 0.60-0.50

 

[ManchesterUk]

Did Fondy log in on the wrong account here & get lucky View attachment 39419







:cheers3: Great stuff Dwightt

 

[M.W.]

Congrats on the fast start, Dwight. I like your thoughts on the Clemson total. Clemson did lose a ton from last year's defense (although I was encouraged by the fact that Clemson led 18-0 in first downs last weeks shortly before the half). And the oddsmakers have consistently underestimated the difference between Clemson with Stoudt and Clemson with Watson.

What are your thoughts on the side in the Clemson game? I'm looking at Clemson -10 or 10.5 for the first half. I also like the full game, though not as much. Swinney will pull Watson as early as possible (in the first half, I would hope), but I'd expect him to play if ASU is within 14 in the 2H.

Does ASU really have 20 starters back, or was there some offseason attrition?

 

[Schrute]

Added:
EMU +13.5 at Wyoming 0.55-0.50

App St did return 20 starters but lost a starting CB (Pinckney) prior to the season. Below are my notes on App St. With the line being Clemson -17, I'm praying we see a 9.5 or 10 for the first half. I would certainly be on that

20 returning starters (10, 10); -2 turnover margin
Slightly more run heavy with a moderately fast pace
Light turned on during second half of 2014 and finished incredibly strong
75th ranked offense (94, 51)
Lamb, Soph, will start at QB again and played great the last 4 games
Top 4 ball carriers return and all averaged over 5ypc
Top 7 pass catchers from a solid passing game which improved all return
65th ranked OL loses 4 starters, 124 starts; Return 79 career starts among 5 guys
110 ranked defense (98, 114) played significantly better 2H 2014
95 ranked DL loses depth DE and returns everyone else
Top 5 LB return and only lose 1 depth guy from experienced crew
Lose 1 starting CB but return everyone else from experienced crew
LOSE proj starting CB Pinckney (should be OK here)
128 ranked ST unit returns everyone

 

[TheGarfather]

Dwight, are you going to make any bets this year or just content to sit on the sidelines for a bit?

 

[Elbutre88]

gl, dwight. love that utsa bet.