Week 2 plays, leans, and Cincy/Oklahoma

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1:
Straight plays: 3-5, -2.75u
Sides: 1-4, -4.1u
Game Totals: 2-0, +2.5u
Team Totals: 0-1, -1.15u
MLs:
Total: 3-5, -2.75u

Disappointing Week 1.

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 1-0
Last Week: W 40-7 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Next: At Oklahoma
Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 0-0
Last Week: Bye
Next: vs. Northern Colorado

Week 2 plays:

Houston/Oklahoma St. OVER 44 (3.3u to win 3)
Wyoming -2 (2.2u to win 2)
Eastern Mich/Michigan St. UNDER 61 (1.65u to win 1.5)
California -11 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Navy/Ball St. OVER 60 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Cincinnati +22 (1.1u to win 1)
Western Michigan TT OVER 29.5 (-115) (1.15u to win 1)
Kent St. +8.5 (1.1u to win 1)

Week 2 leans: (Bolded leans are stronger leans)

Kansas -20.5
UConn -6.5



Write-ups tomorrow. BOL to all this week. :cheers:
 
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you will bounce back DM... dont sweat it

still one of the best assets to this forum in cfb and i really dont see the books hustlin you this year. still got a longgg way to go

BOL this week man hope you make back week 1 + more

havent really had any time to scour the card yet, only thing that really popped out to me was the ND under and socar looks like a solid bet again.
 
Week 1 in review:

NC State/SC UNDER 50: Solid play that was never really in doubt. SC eventually solved the NC St. D, but it took them a half to do it.

Wyoming -10: Incorrect play. I guess I thought that Wyoming advantage in the tenches would be enough for a 17 point victory. I was wrong. Ohio played hard and mistake free for the most part. Crum was mediocre and the offense was too straightforward and predictable.

Wisconsin -26: I think this would be the only loss tha I could classify as a bit of a "bad beat." Wisconsin won by 21, and while the D was so-so, the dominated on the lines and Hill had a field day. They turned it over twice inside the five in the first half (one was an interception that was returned to the Wisky 30). Then, they fumbled a snap late when they were running the clock out to late Akron get the backdoor. Was happy with the play overall as I think I pegged Akron about right.

ECU/VT UNDER 50: Was lucky to get this early, but I think it was the right side anyway. I think there were 3 defensive/special teams TDs in the game, and VT had a 2-pointer off a blocked XP as well.

Syracuse +11.5: Wrong play. Even when the Cuse was up 10-9 early in the third, they were getting smashed in total yards. Congrats to NW backers here, you were dead on in this game. I was encouraged by Syracuse running game though.

Arky St. +20.5: Didn't see a down of this game. I can only assume it was the right side though. A&M mistakes doomed them.

Western Michigan +14: Wrong side again. WMU offense played about to the level that I expected (despite a period of poor play in the 1st quarter), but the D let me down. Was hopin they would hold Nebraska to 30-35 points. Nebraska kicker was very accurate on FGs. Nebraska was a bit complacent late in the game, which is one of the reasons I hesitate to back them against SJSU. A couple of Ganz mistakes late gave WMU a backdoor opportunity, but the cover wasn't deserved either way.

Idaho TT OVER 16: 70-0 Arizona. I don't even think Idaho had 70 total yards. Didn't see this game either, but has Idaho actually regressed?
 
CapTwo said:
you will bounce back DM... dont sweat it

still one of the best assets to this forum in cfb and i really dont see the books hustlin you this year. still got a longgg way to go

BOL this week man hope you make back week 1 + more

havent really had any time to scour the card yet, only thing that really popped out to me was the ND under and socar looks like a solid bet again.
Click to expand...

Appreciate it Cap - hope you had a good birthday.

I would take SC as well, but I don't want to lay nearly 10 when I don't know who the QB is going to be. We'll see how it plays out though.

BOL this week. :cheers:
 
Random Week 1 tidbits from reading box scores and watching games (basically anything I found interesting, surprising, etc.):

- Army's special teams are slow, unorganized, and a bunch of poor tacklers. The opposition should start with consistenly good field position this year, particularly since they no longer have Tolson to pin the them deep in their own territory.

- Ball St. and Central Michigan's respective defenses were pedestrian in their openers. Northeastern actually drove the ball effectively against Ball St., but drives would stall in BS territory.

- Iowa St's win against South Dakota St. was a bit deceiving. SDSU nearly matched them in total yards.

- UConn QB Tyler Lorenzen threw 3 INTs against Hofstra.

- Cincy QB Dustin Grutza holds on to the ball too long, but he was more accurate than I remember.

- Stanford RB Toby Gerhart runs very hard. They could be an under team as they seem to prefer to run.

- Syracuse's run game should be much improved this year, but they have no dependable WRs. Could be an under team when facing the right opposition (this week vs. akron).

- Penn St.'s defense was very porous in the early going, but they found their rhythm in the 2nd half. They did not run any of the rumored spread offense against Coastal Carolina.

- Akron's QB Chris Jacquemain seemed to be much better than he was last year. Only one game though, so I'll have to keep an eye on it. Akron punter John Stec is inconsistent as best.

- Utah had 15 penalties for 137 yards. How did Johnson rush 20 times for -66 yards? Sakota is probably one of the best special teams weapons in CFB. Utah will win field position battles all year.

- Towson threw for 330 yards against Navy. Navy ran for 560.

- Brandon Gibson was the only Wash St. WR with over 9 receiving yards against Okla St. Washington St.'s D seemed better than the final score indicated.

- Maryland's kicker Ogekeze was 0-3 on FGs against Delaware.

- Marshall was 1-10 on 3rd downs in their 35-10 win over Illinois St. They only had one sustained TD drive, and they had two one play drives.

- About half of New Mexico's yards against TCU came on one play (the 81 yard pass to Hernandez)

- Mississippi St. turned it over five times, had 10 penalties, and outgained La. Tech by 79 yards in their 22-14 loss. La. Tech kicker Oestricher hit FGs of 48 and 50 yards. Miss St.'s punter McAdams averaged only 31.9 yards on seven punts.

- Arkansas passed 41 times to 21 rushes against W. Illinois.

- Arkansas St. ran for 255 yards on TAMU (5.7 ypc).

- There were 104 total rushes to only 46 total passes in the La. Lafayette/Southern Miss game. Despite the high score, these could be under teams agains the right competition.

- Vizza got the nod at QB for North Texas against Kansas St.

- Three Qbs played for San Jose St., but Kyle Reed was clearly the most effective (14-18, 132 yards, TD). They ran for only 42 yards on 24 carries.

- Utah St. could have a QB dilemma, as Boren seems to offer a running dimension that Setzer may not offer. UNLV used two punters and two kickers.

- San Diego St. had no semblance of a running game against Cal Poly. They also turned it over five times and lost the total yards battle by 100.

- Idaho's punter Conley was terrific against Arizona. He averaged 48.6 on seven punts.
 
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Dmoney416 said:
Week 1 in review:

NC State/SC UNDER 50: Solid play that was never really in doubt. SC eventually solved the NC St. D, but it took them a half to do it.

Wyoming -10: Incorrect play. I guess I thought that Wyoming advantage in the tenches would be enough for a 17 point victory. I was wrong. Ohio played hard and mistake free for the most part. Crum was mediocre and the offense was too straightforward and predictable.

Wisconsin -26: I think this would be the only loss tha I could classify as a bit of a "bad beat." Wisconsin won by 21, and while the D was so-so, the dominated on the lines and Hill had a field day. They turned it over twice inside the five in the first half (one was an interception that was returned to the Wisky 30). Then, they fumbled a snap late when they were running the clock out to late Akron get the backdoor. Was happy with the play overall as I think I pegged Akron about right.

ECU/VT UNDER 50: Was lucky to get this early, but I think it was the right side anyway. I think there were 3 defensive/special teams TDs in the game, and VT had a 2-pointer off a blocked XP as well.

Syracuse +11.5: Wrong play. Even when the Cuse was up 10-9 early in the third, they were getting smashed in total yards. Congrats to NW backers here, you were dead on in this game. I was encouraged by Syracuse running game though.

Arky St. +20.5: Didn't see a down of this game. I can only assume it was the right side though. A&M mistakes doomed them.

Western Michigan +14: Wrong side again. WMU offense played about to the level that I expected (despite a period of poor play in the 1st quarter), but the D let me down. Was hopin they would hold Nebraska to 30-35 points. Nebraska kicker was very accurate on FGs. Nebraska was a bit complacent late in the game, which is one of the reasons I hesitate to back them against SJSU. A couple of Ganz mistakes late gave WMU a backdoor opportunity, but the cover wasn't deserved either way.

Idaho TT OVER 16: 70-0 Arizona. I don't even think Idaho had 70 total yards. Didn't see this game either, but has Idaho actually regressed?
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You pretty much nailed what happened in the wyoming game.

I thought syracuse was very competitive in the first 15-20 minutes. The first nw td was a blown coverage ...two guys covering three on the right defensive side if i remember right. When northwestern finally got in rhythm they looked impressive. Agree about the running game. Head and shoulders better than a year ago.

I thought the referees spotted one or two plays a half yard short for Idaho .. otherwise they would have had one more yard of offense. didn't see a play and i am thankful for that.

Appreciate the wisconsin thoughts , haven't had a chance to dissect that one yet.

Also enjoyed your tidbits ... can you do that every week ?
 
Dmoney416 said:
Wyoming -10: Incorrect play. I guess I thought that Wyoming advantage in the tenches would be enough for a 17 point victory. I was wrong. Ohio played hard and mistake free for the most part. Crum was mediocre and the offense was too straightforward and predictable.
Click to expand...


Yep, that is what I thought too. And we were half right as the DL shut down Ohio's running game, but the team didn't do enough in the pass defense department to get a good result. The OL was pitiful other than their final TD drive which was impressive. Check out the play by play on that. Why couldn't they do that the whole game?
 
VK - I'll try to do the box score stuff each week.

oak - no real opinion there. Didn't get to see either team this weekend unfortunately.

Gar - That last drive was solid. Slow, methodical, but effective. Unfortunately, at that point I needed them to score very quickly.

Added:

Houston/Oklahoma St. OVER 44 (3.3u to win 3)
Eastern Mich/Michigan St. UNDER 61 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Navy/Ball St. OVER 60 (1.32u to win 1.2)

All of these are alluded to in the totals discussion thread. The Houston/OK ST. total was a mistake made by Bookmaker when they likely entered the 44 while looking at the current Buff/Pitt total. As of now, BM has not cancelled the play. I will take the play off my list if they cancel it.
 
Hope to have my Cincy/Oklahoma thoughts up tomorrow.

Also, I would still bet all of my plays at their current lines with the obvious exception of the Houston/Ok St. Over.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Houston/Oklahoma St. OVER 44 (3.3u to win 3)

All of these are alluded to in the totals discussion thread. The Houston/OK ST. total was a mistake made by Bookmaker when they likely entered the 44 while looking at the current Buff/Pitt total. As of now, BM has not cancelled the play. I will take the play off my list if they cancel it.
Click to expand...
No way this stands. This is almost 2 touchdowns off.
I'd line this at 57-59 points.
 
Marshall was 1-10 on 3rd downs in their 35-10 win over Illinois St. They only had one sustained TD drive, and they had two one play drives.
Click to expand...

Great info all the way around
 
Yeah why is that Ok State-U of H line so low? Both of those teams average 35 points a season and neither are ever known for having great defenses or anything.
 
More I think about it... this is a MUST win for Syracuse. I did not catch any of the Akron game... but now hearing how Wisky failed inside the 5 in the 1H hurts considering I had them 1H and lost by 3 on it.

Akron covers vs. Wisky and Cuse gets blown out by NW. Opening up value on the Orange.

You really think Cinnci can hang in that environment? They haven't played a team this good on both sides of the ball... maybe forever?
 
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More I think about it... this is a MUST win for Syracuse. I did not catch any of the Akron game... but now hearing how Wisky failed inside the 5 in the 1H hurts considering I had them 1H and lost by 3 on it.

Akron covers vs. Wisky and Cuse gets blown out by NW. Opening up value on the Orange.

i agree. the line keeps dropping so there is certainly no hurry for most of us.

Will be interested to see dmoney thoughts on this game. As bad as syracuse was last year they did handle the buffalo at home pretty easily and battled miami oh on the road decently as well. For mac history reference.
 
dylan - Normally, it would be cancelled right away, but BM seems to have a different policy on this. This also happened once last year when they posted a Minnesota/Indiana O/U at 50 when it belonged in the low 60s. They let that stand and still haven't cancelled this bet.

BAR, pags, Grind - Thanks. BOL to you all this week. Will try to those tidbits each week.

Pluto - If you are referring to the 44, then it was a mistake.

Inspekdah - I'm nearly positive that the defense can hang. It's the QB and OL that I worry about.

VK - leaning more and more to a no play on the Cuse. We'll see though.
 
Eastern Michigan/Michigan St. UNDER 61

Well, there is not much you can take away from EMU's game against Indiana St, so I'll skip that one.

I think the clock will be ticking in this game as both teams focus (mostly) on the run. Last year, Michigan St. ran it 580 times and passed it 393 times.

Now, that changed in Mihcigan St.'s week 1 loss to Cal, where they passed it 48 times and ran it 31 times. There were very good reasons for this:

1. They couldn't run at all as they were being beat at the point of attack.
2. They were constantly in 3rd and long situations due to penalties and the poor run game.
3. They were behind by 2 possession late.

Look at Michigan St.'s 1st quarter possessions:

Possession #1

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3>Michigan State at 14:07</TD><TD>MSU</TD><TD>CAL</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at MSU 34</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 3 yards to the MchSt 37.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 7 at MSU 37</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 2 yards to the MchSt 39.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 5 at MSU 39</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass complete to B.J. Cunningham for 11 yards to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at CAL 50</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 3 yards to the Cal 47.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 7 at CAL 47</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 3 yards to the Cal 44.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 4 at CAL 44</TD><TD>California penalty 5 yard offside defense accepted, no play.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at CAL 39</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass incomplete to N/A.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 10 at CAL 39</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass complete to B.J. Cunningham for 11 yards to the Cal 28 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at CAL 28</TD><TD>Michigan St penalty 15 yard illegal block accepted, no play.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 25 at CAL 43</TD><TD>Michigan St penalty 15 yard pass interference accepted.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 40 at MSU 42</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 10 yards to the Cal 48.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 30 at CAL 48</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass incomplete to B.J. Cunningham.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 30 at CAL 48</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass incomplete to Javon Ringer.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 30 at CAL 48</TD><TD>Aaron Bates punt for 24 yards, downed at the Cal 24</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Possession #2

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at MSU 14</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 1 yard to the MchSt 15.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 9 at MSU 15</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass incomplete to B.J. Cunningham.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 9 at MSU 15</TD><TD>Michigan St penalty 5 yard false start accepted.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 14 at MSU 10</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass incomplete.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 14 at MSU 10</TD><TD class=greenfont>Team punt blocked by Brett Johnson, Bryant Nnabuife for 5 yards, to the MchSt 0 for a TOUCHDOWN.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Possession #3

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at MSU 45</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 6 yards to the Cal 49.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>7</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 4 at CAL 49</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass complete to Mark Dell for 12 yards to the Cal 37 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at CAL 37</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for no gain to the Cal 37.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 10 at CAL 37</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for no gain to the Cal 37.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 10 at CAL 37</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass incomplete to N/A.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 10 at CAL 37</TD><TD>Aaron Bates punt for 37 yards for a touchback.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Possession #4

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3>Michigan State at 4:12</TD><TD>MSU</TD><TD>CAL</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at MSU 17</TD><TD>Keshawn Martin rush for 2 yards to the MchSt 19.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>7</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 8 at MSU 19</TD><TD>Javon Ringer rush for 2 yards to the MchSt 21.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 6 at MSU 21</TD><TD>Brian Hoyer pass complete to Charlie Gantt for 3 yards to the MchSt 24.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 3 at MSU 24</TD><TD>Aaron Bates punt for 48 yards, returned by Sean Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 25.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I count 11 running plays and 10 passing plays. They ran on first down seven out of eight times, so I think its obvious they wanted to establish the run (even running on 1st and 40), but they gradually realized that the running game was not going to work out. Often, they were simply forced to pass: 3rd and 5, 3rd and 10, 2nd and 10, 2nd and 30, and 3rd and 30 will do that to an offense.

I think its safe to say that they woun't have that problem against a EMU team that gave up 5.2 ypc last year. Michigan St. will gash this defense, but they will drain clock doing it. I'm sure the Spartans are eager to get the ground game going after the week 1 failure in that department.

I like Hoyer and the WR additions of Dell and Cunningham, but they did lose Thomas and Davis from last year WR core. They shouldn't have to pass much either way.

On the other side, EMU ran 458 times to 361 passes last year. Much of this is attributed to Andy Schmitt's running ability. Though EMU has seemingly gone to a modified spread this season, I still think you'll see plenty of running from both Schmitt and Blevins to keep the offense honest.

They did run 53 times to 29 passes against Indy St. (again, I wouldn't look much into this given the score).

While Michigan St. lost a good amount of defense to graduation, EMU's WR trio of Stone, White, and Jones won't be able to crack the defense for much.

Given this number, they expect EMU to get around 20 points, which I don't see happening.

Though Michigan St's defense faltered late in the conference season, they fared well against lesser non-conference oopponents. They gave up 18 to UAB, 17 to Bowling Green, and 14 to ND.

On the other end, EMU couldn't hit paydirt against the non-conf: 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 7 vs. Vandy, 22 vs, Michigan (8 of which came from a meaningless TD with under a minute left), and 14 against Northwestern.

Michigan St. 38
Eastern Michigan 14
 
Yingling to replace Rogers
Posted by BKoch at 9/1/2008 12:18 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Senior Brandon Yingling, from Mason High School, will replace Jake Rogers as UC’s placekicker this week at Oklahoma.

Brian Kelly said today during the Big East coaches call that he simply cannot afford to use Jake Rogers for field goals and extra points until Rogers figures out to rid himself of the game-day anxieties that have plagued him, including last week when he missed two extra points, one of which was blocked.

“We just have more work to do with Jake,” Kelly said. “Jake has got to be able to get into a game situation and settle down and calm down. The only way to do that is to play the game. I’m not ready to put him back in the situation he was in this weekend until he comes up with a plan on how to address a lot of the anxiety he has during the game.”

Yingling has never attempted a field goal in a game, but he made all four of his extra point attempts against EKU and is 10-for-11 in his career.

Kelly concedes that Yingling is not as consistent during practice as Rogers but hopes that with more reps in practice he will get there.

Rogers will continue to handle kickoff duties.
 
Not surprisingly, UC a lopsided underdog
Posted by BKoch at 9/2/2008 3:14 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

At times, Brian Kelly seems almost giddy about playing in Norman.

“This is fun,” Kelly said. “This is what you do this for. You want to coach a team to go to Oklahoma. You want to go into that environment. It doesn’t get any better than that. If I’m going to spend 80 hours here during the week, I’d like to go play somebody that it means something, not that the other games don’t. If we’re going to be here and I’m going to miss my kids’ football games, I’d like to prepare for a game like Oklahoma. It’s what keeps us in this business, to go in and challenge yourself against the best.”

Kelly believes the Bearcats can win this game and is especially confident that his defense, with nine senior starters, can hold its own against quarterback Sam Bradford and the vaunted Oklahoma offense.

“Our seniors on that side of the ball are going to feel confident going into this kind of environment,” Kelly said. “I like the talent that we have on defense. I’m excited about the opportunity. I’m not scared. I’m excited about putting the guys that we have on the field against Oklahoma and letting us go after it and see what happens.”

Kelly has coached in similar events on two other occasions, both while he was Central Michigan. He lost at Penn State, 40-3, on Sept. 17, 2005 and at Michigan, 41-17, on Sept. 9, 2006. Both times he went into two of college football’s shrines with a Mid-American Conference team that was physically overmatched by the traditional BCS power.

That’s not the case this time.

The Bearcats, while still an upstart on the national scene after finishing with a No. 17 ranking last year, are poised just outside the Top 25, with 35 votes in this week’s Associated Press media poll.

But even with the strides they’ve made over the past few years, they were a 21 1/2-point underdog against the Sooners, a fact that has not been lost on the UC players.

“It’s motivation,” said wide receiver Dominick Goodman, “so that when the game time comes we can prove everyone wrong.”

Defensive end Connor Barwin says he hopes the Sooners look at that line and take the Bearcats for granted. But realistically, he understands why the spread is more than three touchdowns.

One 10-victory season and one Top 25 ranking do not make UC a national power.

“You don’t get all the respect in one year,” Barwin said. “You’ve got to do it consistently.”
 
Huge crowd at Oklahoma not likely to rattle Bearcats
Posted by BKoch at 9/4/2008 11:00 AM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Don’t expect the UC players to be overwhelmed by the huge crowd of 82,000-plus that’s expected at Oklahoma on Saturday. Many of the Bearcats, especially on defense, have been through this before. Just two years ago, in 2006, they played at No. 1 Ohio State before 105,037 fans and acquitted themselves well in the first half before eventually falling, 37-7. From the 6:36 mark of the first quarter until the 3:00 mark of the second, they were leading the Buckeyes.

Dustin Grutza, then a sophomore, started that game and completed 18 of 22 passes for 202 yards and one touchdown. On the down side, he was sacked seven times, intercepted twice and called once for intentional grounding.

His first interception was especially damaging. Trailing 13-7 late in the first half, UC drove from its 20-yard line to the OSU 42. On 1st-and-10, Grutza sprinted out of the pocket and spotted an open Brent Celek. But his pass was picked off by Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis at the OSU 20.

It was all downhill from there.

Still, Grutza said he learned a lot from that playing in that environment.

“It was a huge crowd,” Grutza said. “It was really loud. I learned a lot about how you have to be able to execute and just totally block out the crowd noise. I definitely think that was a good experience. We had Ohio State and then the next week we played at Virginia Tech, which was even louder. To go on the road and play big games in big-time stadiums like those, it definitely helps me know what to expect in this game.”
 
Great thread Dmoney. Also great line you got on Wyoming. GL this week..


edit: with all the line talk this week I should state that I wasn't intending to be sarcastic about the line comment. I know you're there for the openers. :shake:
 
well we just got fucked a little bit

bob is on MTSU it looks like, and we were just talking about them a damn hr before he released today.... argh

+12.5 and going south...
 
Added:

Cincinnati +22 (1.1u to win 1)

I thought about doing a long, drawn out write-up for this one, but my thinking here is pretty simple.

I don't think Oklahoma gets 40, and I think cincy finds a way to get 17. I am confident that Cincinnati can contain any running game, and think the pass D will do their job. Cincinnati only allowed 100 yards rushing in four game last year, completely shutting down Yvenson Bernard, Ray Rice, and UConn's duo in the process.

The key is that Grutza must limit his mistakes and he can not hold on to the ball for too long.

Lastly, I don't think this line makes sense in conjunction with similar lines out there this week (Cincinnati is +22 @Oklahoma while CMU is +23.5 @Georgia?). I really don't think that Cincy is 22 points worse than any team in the nation.
 
ynnhoj316 said:
OU is a different class than last year's Rutgers, UCONN & rest of the Big East.

Good health though..
Click to expand...

No arguments there, both at RB and on the line. However, if they can completely shut down those running games, I am confident that they can contain Oklahoma's.
 
CapTwo said:
well we just got fucked a little bit

bob is on MTSU it looks like, and we were just talking about them a damn hr before he released today.... argh

+12.5 and going south...
Click to expand...

What are you going to do. I be a spectator for this one now. I see you added it at 13, so BOL with the play. They should stick around for the entire game.
 
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