-week 2 ncaaf-

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
sides: 2-5 -3.50
totals: 1-1 -0.10
ml dogs: 3-2 +5.35
big plays: 2-0 +6.00
ytd: +7.75

FINAL CARD (updated throughout the week)


Fri…

Navy +7.5

Sat…

***BIG PLAY – Temple +7***/ML +265

Michigan State -21

Georgia Tech +7/ML +265

Ohio +35 (-120)

New Mexico ML +110

Kent St +7/ML +265

Minnesota ML +180

ECU +7.5

Washington +9

Ole Miss +8

La Tech +20.5/ML +1200

Memphis -3.5


gl:cheers:
 
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Fri…

Navy +7.5

Sat…

***BIG PLAY – Temple +7***/ML +265

Michigan State -21

Georgia Tech +7/ML +265

Ohio +35 (-120)

New Mexico ML +110

Kent St +7/ML +265

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mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> Leans:
South Carolina -
Cuse -
Miami OH +
ECU +/ML
Minny +/ML
Miami FL +
GA -
PSU -
Wash +
Ole Miss +
W Mich -
La Tech +/ML (yes, ML)
Memphis -
UL Monroe +


as you can tell, i have a lot of work to do...please help me get rid of some of these....jesus. i've already locked in the bold plays above my leans and will have write-ups on those, so i'd love to talk those games with you guys but there's really no talking me out of them because i've already played them...
lots to say on these games....
 
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fondystyle works sometimes.

gl this week Joe ... I only have to hate you for a couple more days and then i get my avatar back.
 
temple showing up on a lot of solid cappers cards. add joe to the list. i need to revisit this thing. you gonna have writeups this week joe ??
 
C'mon Kyle pull the trigger on the Temple Owls.

Like Temple Broadway Joe. Think you should lay the points with Penn State. I have to fade Oregon State, look at the rushing yards they gave up to Stanford. Their QB play is atrocious, and they have to travel across the country to Happy Valley. I was out of town at the time and could not get the early number on Penn State, had to settle for some at -16 and -16.5.
 
C'mon Kyle pull the trigger on the Temple Owls.

Like Temple Broadway Joe. Think you should lay the points with Penn State. I have to fade Oregon State, look at the rushing yards they gave up to Stanford. Their QB play is atrocious, and they have to travel across the country to Happy Valley. I was out of town at the time and could not get the early number on Penn State, had to settle for some at -16 and -16.5.


What if its played in a pouring rain ???? still like to lay that many against Riley ?

i liked penn state too. But line moved way up and weather is keeping me away.
 
sirwinz, i really like psu this week quite a bit, and unfortunately psu, ga, and scar are probably the first 3 that will be eliminated from my card. i have a big fav already on my card in michigan state....i've found the balls to lay double digits in ncaaf & nfl combined exactly 3 other times in the last two years:
#1 - mount union -21 in last year's stagg bowl #2 Pats -13 last year's Super Bowl #3 Pitt -12 in last week. all three favorites lost straight up, and it was grossly the wrong side all three times. bigger favorites obviously aren't my forte
 
Navy +7.5

lots of excitement here as it's paul johnson disciple niumatalolo's first major game as head coach. as long as navy can run the ball, i usually will like them in a dog of this size because you know that they are going to be a smart, well-disciplined, and well-coached team. defense vs pass should still be pretty bad, but i expect a decent step in the right direction from last year since they are returning 5 of the back 7 and should be able to get much more pressure on the qb to help them out. they are missing a few key players on offense from last year, but it will definitely not matter. the offense will be as good or better with another year under kaipo-noa's belt and already proven white/kettani replacing campbell/ballard. this reminds me of the spot vs utah last year which i lost because i thought that utah would have a field day offensively...which they did. teams scoring on them just doesn't seem to rattle them or swing momentum, which is a good quality to have for a dog. and utah's defense was significantly better than ball state's. ball state is very hyped this year, and with good reason because they are a quality football team, but i think they are being a little overhyped and a lot of that has to do with a favorable schedule. i would not be able to lay more than a td with a team that has this bad of a run defense. you don't believe me, watch the rutgers tape. dline sucks bad. and returning 8 starters might help cohesiveness and to gain ground to improve against the run, but i doubt it will make strides from its 106 ranking which it would need to do for me to back them laying more than a td against a running team like navy. nate davis might throw for 400 and 5 tds and i could easily still see them not getting a cover. that's saying a lot. navy also has revenge from an overtime loss last year. it's more of advantage to a defense in a rematch that got burnt against the pass than it is to a defense that got outphysicalled...can see qb and situational tendencies but you can't really get leaps and bounds better against the run. any offense with any real type of fire power was able to score four tds on ball state. i think it's pretty likely navy does better than that. i see a very similar game to last year ...38-35 final

some notables from last year's game:

*navy 521 rushing yards on 65 carries = over 8 ypc
*navy held davis to under 300 yds passing in an overtime game(yeah i know not saying much, but the guy had almost 3700 yds passing on the year) and picked him off, but could not stop ball state on 3rd down (i expect navy to be about the same vs the pass but be more effective at stopping the run, 262 yds rushing for ball state and 6.2 ypc)
*navy had big plays - td runs of 80, 71, 24, 25
*navy had the advantage in avg punt yardage, avg punt return yardage, avg kick return yardage, but missed 2 out of 3 fgs, that ultimately cost them the game
 
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Leans:
South Carolina - OUT
Cuse - OUT
Miami OH +
ECU +/ML
Minny +/ML
Miami FL +
GA - OUT
PSU - OUT
Wash +
Ole Miss +
W Mich -
La Tech +/ML (yes, ML)
Memphis -
UL Monroe +
 
Temple +7

well i'm going to mention the situation/motivation here even though all of you are probably already aware. temple was flat out robbed last year of a straight up victory over uconn as heavy dogs at uconn. basically the officials didn't have a camera angle the tv station had (allegedly) that showed temple's receiver clearly in bounds and possession of the ball. this catch was in the final seconds of the game after a nice game-winning drive. it wasn't called a catch on the field so it couldn't be overturned. complete bullshit. in addition to this, uconn has virginia on deck next week, and they are looking to avenge a 1 point loss, which was their first loss of the season, and would have given them a credible ooc win. that was another weird game, and a game that uconn probably should have won, and certainly thinks they could have won...so chances are they could be looking ahead to that one, which could be seen as their "first real test"

i am low on uconn and high on temple this year. classic case of overrated vs underrated from the work i've done on these teams. i think uconn is going in the right direction long term, but i think they take a step back from last year, and they could very well do so while improving...

very very favorable schedule for uconn last year, as they played nobody except virginia ooc, and they played all their big conference games at home except cinci and wva, both contests they got smacked in. duke, maine, and 2 mac teams ooc.



let's examine the road games. at duke...they trailed 14-11 at half before blowing out the lowly blue devils in the 2h. pitt - impressive. but we all know pitt and how schizo they are with the mustache. virginia - aforementioned loss. cinci - got blown out. wva - got blown out. bowl game on neutral - unimpressive loss.


okay, but broadway, they had some big time wins. louisville - very bad rain. controversy on the punt return. trailed the majority of the game. brian brohm having possibly the worst game of his collegiate career in bad rain, a bs td, and it still took until 1 minute left to get the lead for the first time. sfla - another really bad weather day ..rain. awful grothe toss for a pick 6, a sfla missed fg attributed to a lead by uconn late, and sfla actually scored the game tying td, and it was called back due to a holding call...from the 3 yard line ---which is a new one...a holding call on the 3 yd line going in?? don't see that very often. sfla played a very sloppy game in an extremely tough spot for them. they just had a crushing loss at rutgers the week before when they were the highest they had ever been ranked...and they went to cinci the next week. not that they were looking past uconn, but a really tough spot for sfla.


my intent on the above paragraph was not to dismiss uconn's performances. good teams play good enough to win games, and they did so. but it just seemed that EVERY break went their way...something like that just doesn't keep up.


as far as the actual matchup goes...obviously we saw a team that showed its ability to hang with uconn last year. that team is a lot better, returning everybody. cohesiveness is huge in my book, and they should be very focused and have a great week of practice after a kind of disappointing showing vs army and the circumstances around this game. most importantly, this team is healthy. something that uconn can't necessarily say with their rb issues. that was a major reason for some of the struggles that temple had last year. this is a very good cohesive defense returning, and it will be even better because the offense is healthy to keep them off the field. their energy is going to be great because of the type of game. if they get out to an early lead, it is going to be very difficult for uconn to move the ball...they don't have much explosiveness on offense, and they will struggle to throw the football. temple's offense definitely has some question marks and the army game didn't answer a whole lot for me. what they do have is the ability to make plays with a lot of different weapons all that have seen the field for significant time, which is very hard for a uconn defense that has some positions (although i do think the defense will be solid again) to backfill from last year, to prepare for. this will obviously be their first test. the very encouraging thing for temple is that they were able to run the football. they've made some changes since then, but i think they will definitely be able to run the ball as effectively or more effectively than last year's matchup. concerns i have are with the oline protecting so that temple doesn't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, because that is something that likely will not get reciprocated with a careful uconn team. but i think the running game is more of a factor, and they had a significant ypc advantage in last year's matchup, and now they have a more equipped weapons at rb, a more cohesive line, and an all around improved running game, while uconn's dixon exceled in last year's matchup and will probably get his carries limited this week due to being banged up. very encouraging that i know temple is a better team than they were last year, they have intense revenge, they are at home, they are confident not phased by the bcs school opponent, they have a good defense, they'll be able to move the ball on the ground...don't believe me, take a look at last year's box score. this isn't a team that played shitty and hung around while getting outgained and losing the t.o.p. battle. virtually every single category was nearly dead even. there's no significant advantage on special teams.



as i said going into week 1, i like the mac ooc this year and i think a lot of the teams will improve significantly because i feel that many middle tier teams had an uncharacteristically re-building year last year. they usually remain pretty consistent because of not as many players leaving to the pros. this year is the opposite as a lot of the teams have things to build on and a lot of returning players.
 
Not disagreeing or agreeing for that matter on the Navy play, but I figured Ill let you know that Kaipo is not playing in this game. Bryant will be starting this game. Kaipo hasnt played yet this season due to a hamstring issue. Just some FYI.
 
^ thanks, faded. i was thinking for some reason that he was back this week, but his hammie is gonna keep him out this week. this almost made me buy it back since it dropped to 7, but after looking a little further i think i'm gonna just stick with the play. obviously he is a key part of that offense and it's dangerous having another qb take over. towson not a very good measurement obvioiusly for bryant, so i didn't pay much attention to what he did, but he did have 500 yards rushing last year, so he's got talent and he's not green. what scares me is the turnover aspect since he hasn't had much experience running the fumble-prone offense. still think they'll be able to score, but the fumbling obviously is a concern...thanks again, faded

“I thought he did a good job of running the offense, just that one minor slipup. In a close game, that could come back to get you. We’re going to look for flaws. We’re going to praise the guys when they do right. We’re also going to find our weaknesses and try to overcome them and get better.”—Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo on Jared Bryant and his fumble last week, a mistake that resulted in the coach openly chastising the player on the sideline.

some stuff from rivals:

THIS WEEK’S GAME: Navy at Ball State, Sept. 5—Friday Night Lights. ESPN. Navy gets a little national attention as the Mids, playing the first of two straight road games, go for their second straight win in the young season. This won’t be easy, which is why Navy is a 7 1/2-point underdog on the road. The Mids lost at home to Ball State in overtime last year after Matt Harmon’s last-second 31-yard field came out too low and was blocked.

Players To Watch:

QB Jarod Bryant—Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is back at practice but will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury. Bryant played a solid (one-mistake) game against Towson last week and showed he has no trouble running the offense.

SL Shun White—Playing behind Reggie Campbell and Zerbin Singleton last year and expecting Bryant to be part of the depth chart at the position this year, White exploded for a school-record (shattering) 348 yards and three touchdowns last week, leading to national recognition.

DE Jabaree Tuani—The freshman made a quick mark as a pass rusher last week with 1.5 sacks in his college debut.

Roster Report: QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was back at practice but will rest his injured hamstring again this week. He said he had a partial tear and was told 4-6 weeks when he went down. “It’s been three weeks, so I hope I can play in another week or two,” he said as the week of practice began.

SL Greg Shinego, who has been out with a broken hand, is expected to play at Ball State.

SL Andre Byrd (left leg) was also expected to play.

SL Aaron Santiago (sprained neck) was doubtful.

CB Ketric Buffin (quad) was expected to return after missing last week.

The 521 yards rushing piled up by Navy in last year’s loss at Ball State was the third-highest NCAA total ever amassed by a losing team.
 
^NP man. Bryant has significant playing time, in fact he played against Ball St all of the second half last year after Kaipo got injured before the half. Unfortunately he is also the one that fumbled the ball in OT last year. So he may be looking for some redemption this year. GL
 
as i watch navy tackle like schoolgirls, i'll continue along with the card...

Michigan St -21

let me preface this with referring anyone who is reading this to post #8...everyone should take e mich ml. don't often lay dd pts, and i'm not very good at it...just that i eyed up this game last week and i told myself if this line was 24 or under i'd have to take it. i think they win by 30+ rather easily. eastern michigan is a year or two away from being competitive with good teams. they are starting to get some decent recruits, particularly on defense, but on offense the only real weapon that they have that will be effective against a team of mich st's caliber is andy schmitt. replace their top back from last year with a rb by committee, although blevins did get the majority of the carries. no playmaker at receiver. i think they have some potential for major improvement in the next couple of years...their win over central michigan (a shocking one) last year and the ability to not getcompletely blown out by michigan shed some light on that...but right now they are just way too inconsistent, and i think they're going to get a case of the wrong place, wrong time. central michigan just got caught in a shootout and they're not much of a defensive team at all if they don't have the lead. e mich was able to convert on 3rd down because schmitt got hot. and the michigan game wasn't really that close. they still hung 7ypc on em, and e michigan got a garbage td to make it look closer

may sound like a theme, but awful rush defense for e mich. really bad. ringer should run all over them. they lost four games by 21+ last year, and i just don't think they'll have a very easy time scoring. a lot of people will hold too much weight to those c mich and michigan performances. fact is, they gave up 36 ppg on the road last year. mac bottomfeeder vs a team that i think can make some noise in the bigten. and they rely a lot on running the ball, which i don't believe they'll be able to do at all. a little different that the talented cal rbs for mich st. speaking of cal michigan st impressed me in that game...it's tough to travel that far and face a superior team, and they were pretty resilient..

not that this trend is very relevant, but a pretty tough mental block if you're emich...mich st has covered spreads of 26.5, 38, and 32 the last 3 times these two teams got together. they are a little banged up, but i think they are pretty disappointed in the cal loss, and i think that'll be enough to get them fired up in their home opener. no lookahead with fla atl at home next week. i think very worst case scenario they score 42, and i think worst case scenario emich scores 21. if both worst case scenarios happen i'll push. 56-10 michigan st final
 
Georgia Tech +7

well i'm gonna keep this short as a lot has been said. i think if gatech can get to double digits they can cover in this one. of course i thought the same about kent, and i was right that if they scored 10 pts they would have covered, but they got shut out. anyways, what scares me is the two questionable lbs on gt for this game. also concerned about the adjustment to the option vs a real tough defense that is their first test. trends are big for gt on the road, and now they have skyrocketed in coaching improvement that will help them be an even better road team. bc very solid at home, but not against the number. revenge from last year. don't get this spread...huge considering it could easily be fourth or a fifth of the entire total of the game. i'd say the weakness of this defense is their secondary, and that will not be able to be exploited by bc. hoping bc is more taken off guard by the option than gt themselves are. could easily see them winning su here...not high on bc.
 
Ohio +35

well this one is pretty obvious too. can the bucks beat em by 35? yes. will they? no. this was almost a big play. they're not the type of team to make a statement before a big game, and that will be intensified by the beanie injury. they just want to get all of the key players to the west coast healthy. ou is a bunch of buckeyes fans that will be playing their hearts out in the shoe. tressel is from mentor; he's not gonna run up the score. and frankly sometimes i think his ytown buddies talk him into shaving, because there has been a few big spreads like these that he hasn't covered seemingly on purpose. anyways sidetracked. 5 tds? for a team that probably will throw 10 times after the first quarter? sign me up. usually hate these big spreads, but i think the bucks win this one 42-13 after being up 28-0 after the first quarter
 
New Mexico ML

regardless of the outcome of this game, it is absolutely ridiculous that tamu is favored. besides for a more recognizable program, there is absolutely no reason for it. mcgee will regress and struggle in this system. they have good backs, but zero receivers, and zero offensive line. they will not be able to score on opponents this year. period. horrible pass defense. mediocre run defense. besides the future, i have no idea what is there to like about this tamu team. playing a very tough team at home pissed off because they just got dominated. defense didn't look as good as last year's,but secondary still very strong, and the lbs have plenty of experience and playing time. this defense will look much better this week with the weak offensive line will allow penetration of the nm tackles and they can play a lot of man with a talented secondary and no threats outside. very efficient qb for nm in porterie, and who will likely have the better game although not as talented, and i'm confident they'll be able to run the ball more effectively than tamu because of tamu's weak oline.

hard to believe that an inferior team is going to come in and hand nm its second straight loss at home. arky st? arky st. what about that tamu defense...ummm arky state ran the ball all over tamu. nm is better than arky st. don't believe me about mcgee? he threw 2 pks and only 6 yds per pass attempt. zero tds. horrible numbers in any game, let alone arky st. a sun belt football team. a 5-7 middle of the road team named the red wolves. a team that had to replace their whole secondary. tamu terrible defense, and apparently zero pass game.

nm only lost to byu at home last year...and it was a close 7 pt game. i'll take my chances with the better team in a nice environment. should be lobos -4. 20-9 nm final
 
4th and 11 and navy's qb throws it out of bounds. nice. oh well. apparently i should have bought that back, but i didn't. i still don't understand why you don't kick the fuckin football near ball state's goaline...big change in momentum that was a huge turning point in the game. would have liked to see bryant share the ball a little more. i realize they left him no choice many times, but you gotta find a way to get the ball to white and kettani more...0-1 start...typical. maybe i should just start on saturdays.
 
i've actually decided to go ahead and add two more of my leans.....

Miami OH +14.5

W Michigan -6

gl fellas
 
ran out of steam for writing up every game on this huge card, but willing to talk these with anyone that has questions/concerns on my 3 hr ride to the middle of nowhere for a stupid fuckin wedding the ol lady is draggin me to ...and shes bein a real bitch too, so fuck it
 
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