Temple +7
well i'm going to mention the situation/motivation here even though all of you are probably already aware. temple was flat out robbed last year of a straight up victory over uconn as heavy dogs at uconn. basically the officials didn't have a camera angle the tv station had (allegedly) that showed temple's receiver clearly in bounds and possession of the ball. this catch was in the final seconds of the game after a nice game-winning drive. it wasn't called a catch on the field so it couldn't be overturned. complete bullshit. in addition to this, uconn has virginia on deck next week, and they are looking to avenge a 1 point loss, which was their first loss of the season, and would have given them a credible ooc win. that was another weird game, and a game that uconn probably should have won, and certainly thinks they could have won...so chances are they could be looking ahead to that one, which could be seen as their "first real test"
i am low on uconn and high on temple this year. classic case of overrated vs underrated from the work i've done on these teams. i think uconn is going in the right direction long term, but i think they take a step back from last year, and they could very well do so while improving...
very very favorable schedule for uconn last year, as they played nobody except virginia ooc, and they played all their big conference games at home except cinci and wva, both contests they got smacked in. duke, maine, and 2 mac teams ooc.
let's examine the road games. at duke...they trailed 14-11 at half before blowing out the lowly blue devils in the 2h. pitt - impressive. but we all know pitt and how schizo they are with the mustache. virginia - aforementioned loss. cinci - got blown out. wva - got blown out. bowl game on neutral - unimpressive loss.
okay, but broadway, they had some big time wins. louisville - very bad rain. controversy on the punt return. trailed the majority of the game. brian brohm having possibly the worst game of his collegiate career in bad rain, a bs td, and it still took until 1 minute left to get the lead for the first time. sfla - another really bad weather day ..rain. awful grothe toss for a pick 6, a sfla missed fg attributed to a lead by uconn late, and sfla actually scored the game tying td, and it was called back due to a holding call...from the 3 yard line ---which is a new one...a holding call on the 3 yd line going in?? don't see that very often. sfla played a very sloppy game in an extremely tough spot for them. they just had a crushing loss at rutgers the week before when they were the highest they had ever been ranked...and they went to cinci the next week. not that they were looking past uconn, but a really tough spot for sfla.
my intent on the above paragraph was not to dismiss uconn's performances. good teams play good enough to win games, and they did so. but it just seemed that EVERY break went their way...something like that just doesn't keep up.
as far as the actual matchup goes...obviously we saw a team that showed its ability to hang with uconn last year. that team is a lot better, returning everybody. cohesiveness is huge in my book, and they should be very focused and have a great week of practice after a kind of disappointing showing vs army and the circumstances around this game. most importantly, this team is healthy. something that uconn can't necessarily say with their rb issues. that was a major reason for some of the struggles that temple had last year. this is a very good cohesive defense returning, and it will be even better because the offense is healthy to keep them off the field. their energy is going to be great because of the type of game. if they get out to an early lead, it is going to be very difficult for uconn to move the ball...they don't have much explosiveness on offense, and they will struggle to throw the football. temple's offense definitely has some question marks and the army game didn't answer a whole lot for me. what they do have is the ability to make plays with a lot of different weapons all that have seen the field for significant time, which is very hard for a uconn defense that has some positions (although i do think the defense will be solid again) to backfill from last year, to prepare for. this will obviously be their first test. the very encouraging thing for temple is that they were able to run the football. they've made some changes since then, but i think they will definitely be able to run the ball as effectively or more effectively than last year's matchup. concerns i have are with the oline protecting so that temple doesn't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, because that is something that likely will not get reciprocated with a careful uconn team. but i think the running game is more of a factor, and they had a significant ypc advantage in last year's matchup, and now they have a more equipped weapons at rb, a more cohesive line, and an all around improved running game, while uconn's dixon exceled in last year's matchup and will probably get his carries limited this week due to being banged up. very encouraging that i know temple is a better team than they were last year, they have intense revenge, they are at home, they are confident not phased by the bcs school opponent, they have a good defense, they'll be able to move the ball on the ground...don't believe me, take a look at last year's box score. this isn't a team that played shitty and hung around while getting outgained and losing the t.o.p. battle. virtually every single category was nearly dead even. there's no significant advantage on special teams.
as i said going into week 1, i like the mac ooc this year and i think a lot of the teams will improve significantly because i feel that many middle tier teams had an uncharacteristically re-building year last year. they usually remain pretty consistent because of not as many players leaving to the pros. this year is the opposite as a lot of the teams have things to build on and a lot of returning players.