Week 2 NCAA Plays...

JumpOnBoard

JumpOnBoard

CTG Partner
06-07 NCAA: +47.4 total units

07-08 NCAA Season
Sides: 4-2 +3.60 units
Totals: 0-0 +/-
1st Halfs: 0-1 -2.30 units
2nd Halfs: 0-1 -1.10 units
Teasers: 0-1 -1.00 units
Props: 0-0 (Beanie Pending)




Like many I've noticed and talked to in this forum, add on's killed me last Saturday...pretty strange in reality, as we had a month to prepare for that card...so the need for addons was ridiculously unwarranted...

I've been busy as hell finalizing both this and Niffel card, and don't have writeups available for these plays...but I'll be in and out to answer comments, questions for sure and give thoughts if warranted..brief descriptions after each play, but not a writeup..

Here's what I've got so far...

Sides:

Mizzou -6.5 -110 (2 units)...check out the box from Memphis game for Ole Miss and it becomes pretty clear..this team isn't good offensively and Mizzou if nothing else, is good about putting pts on the board..good thing about betting Tigers, you know what u're gonna get and much like last week, Miss doesn't have the horses, esp w/ their best receiver out 3-6 weeks..

S FLA +7 -110 (2 units)...anybody that watched the KSU game understands...Auburn isn't good ...the d is the same as always...but they don't have the running game were accustomed too..they start four new offensive lineman and there isn't a QB in the country that needs help from his hogs up front to be successful more than Cox...this team is going to struggle to score all year until this OL improves...KSU was the best team on the field last Sat, and S FLA is better than K State..they have a good D Line...they have an experienced QB and they are better than Auburn IMO...this is a live ML dog...

UGA -3 -130 (2 units)...porky style on buying the point...I don't buy em often, but w/ these two teams and SEC's propensity for 17-14 type games, it's prudent IMO...SC gave up 300 yds rushing to a Sun Belt team kids...that's unreal...UGA lost Lumpkin, but have two more than capable backs...the Oline played better than expected and this SC bunch is a mess...they have character issues and it showed in the fact that they weren't ready to play Sat...camp has been nothing but distractions and it doesn't get easy on Sat in a very hostile environment...Stafford looked Sat and UGA is a good football team...the better team and a soft number w/ the point IMO..

UK -12.5 -110 (2 units)....RJ, BAR, and i agree here that this is the right side....the angles are numberous, but for me, it comes to this..the spot is perfect, number wise...a soft number off a KSU win over a BCS team last Thurs...ISU is bad, real bad...the boxscore is even and tells me both are bad teams...ISU had three returns over 30 yds...that equals short fields...UK has the best offense in the SEC IMO, and they will score at will in this game...Kent doesn't have nearly the guns to keep up...Bad situational spot w/ Lville on deck, but I think Brooks knows this is a good year w/ a shot at a top ten lville squad...so I think he keeps pedal down and wants this team to believe they are going into Pizza Palace to win...I love this UK team and they are going to be on my card again ..count on that..

Utah St +24.5 -110 (1 unit)....small play here...situational at it's finest..huge sangwich spot for Cowboys in Laramie....off huge upset , dominating in fact , over UVA in that revenge spot and u have a big game w/ Boise on deck...Utah st was awful last year and this game will be a lookaheader....they return all 11 defensive starters, which showed in keeping UNLV in check all game..they aren't good, but they are better...19 returning starters will do that...


Totals:

Zippies/tOSU Under 53 -110 (2 units)....pretty good number here...Cmoney and I got this one as soon as bookmaker released em on Wed...it's fallen now some and and for good reason...the Bucks will once again play all three QB's their own series and the backs get their own series as well...every scholarship athlete that dresses will play and thats a good thing...Washington is on deck and Tressel stills have very little reason to show anything...Bucks have a history of scoring about 28-34 in these games and I expect it there again...zippies get no more than 14 IMO...a good overlay here....


Teaser:

Texas -2
LSU -6.5
UCLA -1.5

2 units to win 3.6


Neb -1
Col St +21
Mich PK
Tenn -3
Tejas -2.5

1 unit pays 3.5





Leans:

OU -1
Vandy +3.5


Haven't decided on the two leans, but will before long...I think I'll play em both but I've got to decide for sure.....

Comments are welcome..do it up..

GL this week guys..


:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Jump also Love the line for UK here as well....next week is at Commonwealth against the Cards! GL
 
lol...porky-style

great looking card though, Jump. got a couple in common...yet nothing i disagree with.

BOL this week, bro.
 
You are right KMACC...wrong venue listed next week...makes it even more intriguing....

Thanks alot everyone else so far..

Forgot to mention in first window that I had a play on ND at +17, but hedged -17 for PSU after Clauseen was named...throwin a kid to the wolves in a white out situation w/ a night game atmosphere in Happy Valley...had they gone w/ the kid that played best last week, I would have stayed on it...but I've seen what those fans do to opposing QB's numerous times up there....that being said, I do think it's right "overall" move for Weiss...just not for a play on Sat..

Dr Bob in 4 hrs..
 
Lovin' the Mizzou pick... I like it more and more everytime I see someone else jumpin on it.

Speakin of Dr. Bob, what did he have to say last week? I remember everyone gettin excited about it and havin this huge thread, but I dont think I ever saw his picks???
 
PokeyFSU said:
Lovin' the Mizzou pick... I like it more and more everytime I see someone else jumpin on it.

Speakin of Dr. Bob, what did he have to say last week? I remember everyone gettin excited about it and havin this huge thread, but I dont think I ever saw his picks???
Click to expand...

Basically he released a couple of "strong opinions" and leans which won't move lines much. He was smart and he didn't want to hurt himself playing too much with all of the uncertainty that surrounds week one. That should change this week.

GL this week JOB - love the Akron under. :cheers:
 
Yeah I read that on his site, but I was wonderin what his actual strong opinions were... I dont see how this guy is much different from alot of the guys here, other than his 51% strong opinions move lines, lol
 
PokeyFSU said:
Yeah I read that on his site, but I was wonderin what his actual strong opinions were... I dont see how this guy is much different from alot of the guys here, other than his 51% strong opinions move lines, lol
Click to expand...

Agreed...I don't necessarily care about the plays themselves, although I prefer not be against his strongest plays as he's a successful capper..

But I def care about the possiblity of creating a very very soft line on a game I have a strong opinion on..
 
Definitely, his track record speaks for itself, but with the almost overwhleming amount of useful info and viewpoints you can get here, I don't see any reason to just flat out tail his picks blindly. I would rather get different views of different games from a variety of successful cappers, than (1) guy who has had (1) amazing year while others are cosnistently good, which is something that is not unusual from the fellas @ this site. Heck, we could come up with 5-8 "CTG Top plays" based on everyones posted plays and the number of people on a certain game, and it likely hit over 60+%. There are alot of games ot there that bookmakers misread completely each week, and I think people on here do a great job of digging til they find it, and when they do, its available to everyone who wants to see it. I'm not knocking those that do subscribe to Dr. Bob, whatever makes you feel better about what you pick is great, but i dont think that ol' Bob's info is worth that much when you can get so much out of everyone here. Why see 1 angle, when you can see 20? I do like the fact that he can move lines like he does, if it moves the right way, i'm takin it whether Bob likes it or not, especially if i was leaning that way already. But when it comes down to it, I have to go with my gut, based on the info I have, and the opinion I have gathered from that info. It's nice to have Bob on my side, but if hes on the other side, hes on the wrong side til i am proved otherwise.

Here's to the best cappers in the nation and all the hard work you put into your research, threads, and insight. Everyone does an amazing job and I wish to all, continued success and inevitable long term profit throughout the season. :cheers:
 
good thing about betting Tigers, you know what u're gonna get

Man, I don't know about that with their propensity to implode; you must be talking about strictly their offense and not Pinkel's decision making. I want to join you on this game, because I see the same thing you do...how is Ole Miss going to keep up? People said that LW about Illinois as well in a game the Tigers had no business covering. Pinkel is 3-9 as an AF (idiot coaches rarely cover as AF's) while Orgeron is 3-1 HD out of conference. Still pondering...

Totally agree on USF...I'm on it.

Won't be playing it, so I won't be opposite you, BAR and RJ (generally a losing proposition) but I like Kent St vs Kentucky; Kent continues to be underestimated and they're about just as good as the MAC team that went down there LY and took UK to the wire; throw in the lookahead to Louisville and that's a lot of points to lay with a team that has no defense.

No opinion on the UGA game.

Nice points on Utah St...huge sandwich spot...Wyoming HC Glenn has me staying away from that one.
 
Man, I don't know about that with their propensity to implode; you must be talking about strictly their offense and not Pinkel's decision making. I want to join you on this game, because I see the same thing you do...how is Ole Miss going to keep up? People said that LW about Illinois as well in a game the Tigers had no business covering. Pinkel is 3-9 as an AF (idiot coaches rarely cover as AF's) while Orgeron is 3-1 HD out of conference. Still pondering...
Click to expand...

Exactly bro...You know that Missouri is gonna score and you know that their defense isn't winning them games...Mississippi was dominated by Memphis overall...I'm confient Mizzou gets 32-35 here...I don't think Ole Miss gets enough to get w/in the number...

Put no doubt about Pinkel and no doubt about their continued propensity towards making mistakes...but two good things came from Illy game...one, they found ways to create turnovers..which can help a mediocre defense ...two, in the past, they would have lost that illy game when it all starting going wrong at 37-20 to a close game..they didn't this year...

But the team is NOT well coached, your dead on there...

Won't be playing it, so I won't be opposite you, BAR and RJ (generally a losing proposition) but I like Kent St vs Kentucky; Kent continues to be underestimated and they're about just as good as the MAC team that went down there LY and took UK to the wire; throw in the lookahead to Louisville and that's a lot of points to lay with a team that has no defense.
Click to expand...

The UK defensive deficiencies we tossed back and forth alot...but there are two many weapons for UK here...Kent is not a good offense...ISU's defense is horrid and they didn't do a whole in that game if u look at the box....their special teams were awful, which w/ the new rules, makes for alot of short fields...it's huge...UK's offense is still under the radar...alot of us know it, but many others dont'....the have the best offense in the SEC...a great QB, great receivers, most underrated back in SEC...just two many weapons...Kent is a middle of the road MAC team..the MAC impressed week 1, but vs bad teams...UK is lookin to take that next step..8 wins and a bowl win over Clemson was great, but this team has a chance to take another step...I don't its too many pts..I think the line is soft...but the lookahead spot is noted and I wish it wasn't there...if it wasn't I would played this double...


GL this week horses..
 
Thanks Jump, Nice points about the short fields; I will definitely be pulling for you guys since I have no stake here.

I do respectfully disagree about Kent meing a mid-MAC team though; clearly in the upper 1/3 according to my ratings.

G/L to you this week as well.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
UGA -3 -130 (2 units)...porky style on buying the point...I don't buy em often, but w/ these two teams and SEC's propensity for 17-14 type games, it's prudent IMO...SC gave up 300 yds rushing to a Sun Belt team kids...that's unreal...UGA lost Lumpkin, but have two more than capable backs...the Oline played better than expected and this SC bunch is a mess...they have character issues and it showed in the fact that they weren't ready to play Sat...camp has been nothing but distractions and it doesn't get easy on Sat in a very hostile environment...Stafford looked Sat and UGA is a good football team...the better team and a soft number w/ the point IMO..
Click to expand...


Just a quick note.. It was 252yards rushing, covers stats are wrong.

:smiley_acbe:


Overall, best of luck this week. I am on Missouri and like them a lot. You have a good number on the UGA game, Wyoming is laying a little more than I thought they would be, I think UK puts up a ton of points and I wasn't impressed with Auburn last week.
 
Got a good number but had to pay the vig to get it unfortunatley...thanks, ETG, I've seen three box scores say three different things..

Bad news vs the Rajun Cajuns whichever one is correct..
 
good lookin card this week!! I'm on U st and S.Florida as well, so let's make this a far more profitable weekend:cheers:
 
GL Jump. Love the spot for Utah State here. I'm not sure there will be 24 points scored in that entire game.
 
Great point Jpicks and something I meant mention that in the writeup...

The total opened at 39....thats basically a perfect scenario for taking a big dog and something I always look for....
 
I don't plan on adding a side unless I read something on this forum that I didn't realize about a play that I lean...

But I am adding a teaser, and will do so most likely in the AM..

Leaning WVU -17, Cal -7, Tenn -3, Neb -1.5..

Pondering.
 
UTAH STATE!!! thought I would be the only person in America with a play in that game lol.....Good Luck JUMP!


O-H-
 
I'm glad to see you teased CSU to +21 rather than Cal to +7. I'll be surprised if this game isn't close and decided in the 4th quarter.
 
JPicks said:
I'm glad to see you teased CSU to +21 rather than Cal to +7. I'll be surprised if this game isn't close and decided in the 4th quarter.
Click to expand...

Looked at it for a long time...and I think the chance of a blowout is much lower than CSU keepin it close...terrible, terrible spot in Fort Collins.
 
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