Week 2 MLB

My abysmal record after yesterday
MON 5-7 -1.73u
YTD 25-26 -5.3u

The O's have posted a 35 wRC so far and I know it's early / only144 PAs, but the O's couldn't hit shit vs Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson...though the O's have some familiarity with Verlander, it truly just doesn't matter. This O's team is pure unadulterated shit on both sides of the ball. Gas can Mike Wright is almost sure to give up a 5-spot. So I'm getting off favs soon, but gotta go stros here

  • 968 Houston Astros* -1 -191
View attachment 31920
 
Gonna take Rox late, Freeland pitched well enough last year, was solid on road and Pads haven't got shit going yet this year.
  • Colorado Rockies 1.935
c261d850-4e67-4ad6-9b0c-527f0bffd505.png

93d18d64-5418-40c9-a28b-b7df3ed8cead.png
 
Here's my full card. I posted some decimal odds earlier so here they are all converted to American
  • 963 Kansas City Royals +1½ -190 ✔️
  • 963 Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers Over 8½ -110 ❌
  • 958 Milwaukee Brewers -105 ✔️
  • 968 Houston Astros -1 -191 ✔️
  • 953 Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -180 ❌
  • 961 Colorado Rockies -107 ❌
 
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TUE 3-3 -0.97u
YTD 28-29 -6.27u

Signs of life, but still laying way too much chalk. Will get this turned around. Some good spots today.

914 Detroit Tigers -122

Duffy was bad in first outing and Norris getsfirst start vs weak KC offense. Temp forecast under 40 at gametime.
258d2202-7b06-468a-91f8-c47ff9226336.png

View attachment 31925
 
Folty has been 4-2 at home and Scherz hasn't been very good stopper after losses. He has some good trends definitely and is exceptional in cold weather. It will be near 60 in ATL and I'm not laying near 2-1
  • 902 Atlanta Braves +185
  • 901 Washington Nationals/Atlanta Braves Under 8 -109
View attachment 31931
f909f5e5-87c4-485e-9345-3d1f3d509a11.png
 
Barksdale in SF and it will be 60 degrees with 10+ mph winds, so he will be looking to go home early = under. Also I've came up with 10 pitchers to bet first couple weeks that have more modest juice...I will be playing them starting with Noah and Cueto. Whole list here
  • 904 New York Mets -125
  • 926 San Francisco Giants -122
  • 925 Seattle Mariners/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -106
2e4c175e-2a21-4f95-9d53-b4e98ef563e3.png

481e1a74-7c9c-4bef-9b3d-95226182f140.png
 
My whole board...Tigers cancelled and omitted
  • 902 Atlanta Braves +185 ✔️
  • 901 Washington Nationals/Atlanta Braves Under 8 -109
  • 904 New York Mets -125 ✔️
  • 926 San Francisco Giants -122 ✔️
  • 925 Seattle Mariners/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -106 ❌
  • 906 Arizona Diamondbacks +120 ✔️
  • 918 Los Angeles Angels +1.5 -1.20 ✔️
  • 908 Milwaukee Brewers +102 ❌
tumblr_inline_npl0khjDmf1qzpe2a_540.jpg
 
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Thursday

  • 959 Arizona Diamondbacks +112
  • 971 Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees Under 8½ +106
Yanks under based on ump and cold and O's bad hitters. Riding Ray as one of my early season studs
 
Finally a decent day yesterday, hoping more coming soon

WED 5-2-1 +3.99u
YTD 33-31-1 -2.28u

Gonna add..
  • 959 Arizona Diamondbacks/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 -115
Snakes and opponents have scored 27 total in last 7 games in zona
...and here's Robbies early season #'s with lone loss on the road
View attachment 31954
 
Gonna go with Lester. Cubs were better at Milw last year than home, they hit lefties better, Brewers 2-6 last 5 years with Onora and Lester solid April starter away over 5 years(10-5)

  • 961 Chicago Cubs -108
43e921d5-e1d2-4872-a7fd-83d999fc678a.png
 
Thurs card recap:
  • 959 Arizona Diamondbacks +112 ✔️
  • 959 Arizona Diamondbacks/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 -115 ✔️
  • 971 Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees Under 8½ +106 ✔️
  • 961 Chicago Cubs -108 ✔️
 
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Finally two good days in a row and got in the plus column for the year. Really like Carrasco and McCullers today but just staying away from huge juice like that for awhile anyways.

THUR 4-0 +4.18u
YTD 37-31-1 +1.9u

  • Colorado Rockies 1.696
  • Colodado Rockies -1.5 2.41


    f0c5f184-6f2c-421f-ad8b-c70df63bc3d5.png
 
Here's a couple ridiculous trends for Astros amounting to 27-0...still not enough to lure me into laying -290ish, but they probably will win. McCullers throws more curves than anyone in the league and it's harder to hit the curve early in the year.
 
Yankees get is done at home and Wilcox will be good for them. A little warmer so maybe the bats heat up too

  • 912 New York Yankees -1½ +105

HPU = Ed Hickox and H and temperature < 60
SU: 24-15 (1.33, 61.5%) avg line: -135.6 / 122.5 on / against: +$341 / -$567 ROI: +6.2% / -13.5%

RL: 20-13 (0.92, 60.6%) avg line: 123.1 / -136.7 on / against: +$1,163 / -$1,356 ROI: +32.0% / -28.7%

OU: 19-18-1 (0.11, 51.4%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$40 / -$295 ROI: -1.0% / -7.0%

t:team = Yankees and H and date >= 20170902
SU: 21-4 (3.68, 84.0%) avg line: -191.4 / 173.6 on / against: +$1,295 / -$1,398 ROI: +27.1% / -55.2%

RL: 19-6 (2.42, 76.0%) avg line: -101.7 / -112.5 on / against: +$1,555 / -$1,710 ROI: +52.5% / -55.2%

OU: 14-11-0 (0.42, 56.0%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$170 / -$398 ROI: +6.0% / -14.8%
 
  • 913 Toronto Blue Jays 1.877
  • 913 Toronto Blue Jays/Texas Rangers Over 10 -105
  • 913 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ 2.36
TEX 4-11 last 15 as home dog, Moore 10-22 last year with 26% ROI fading him. Stroman 6-2 last 4 years when Jays hitting strong(over 6.5 runs per game last 5) +50% ROI
 
late game
  • 916 Los Angeles Angels -126

Parker Birdwell took league by storm last years and Angels were 17-3 in all his starts for a 75% ROI..also Gossett 3-13as dog..this one looks too easy. But A's did hit Birdwell twice last year and lost 12-10 and 11-8 or something like that. A's catcher Bruce Maxwell out on rest as well.
 
Friday recap
  • Colorado Rockies -144 ❌
  • Colodado Rockies -1.5 +141 ❌
  • 912 New York Yankees -1½ +105 ❌
  • 913 Toronto Blue Jays -114 ✔️
  • 913 Toronto Blue Jays/Texas Rangers Over 10 -105 ✔️
  • 913 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +136 ✔️
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers +1½ -140 ✔️
  • 916 Los Angeles Angels -126 ✔️
 
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Wild finish in LA and Jays cruised. Glad I resisted Astros, even though it looked great...I'm not laying that kind of juice.

FRI 5-3 +1.92u
YTD 42-34-1 +3.82u

Grabbed some O's last night on Tony's nick line, but I still think there's plenty value anything near 200. Tillman 8-4 lifetime in first ten games of the season while Gray 3-4 in same. Also NYY only 5-9 at home after Didi goes yard
  • 965 Baltimore Orioles +217

View attachment 31976
 
also I'm on..
  • 952 Washington Nationals -154
  • 951 New York Mets/Washington Nationals Under 8
Gio excellent cold weather pitcher 11-2 under 55 degrees link
Ump Foster very good for fav and under in early season games link
...also may add RL
 
kinda busy...may be last play today
  • 975 Toronto Blue Jays -124
Jays 16-6 at Texas last 6 years, 33-19 as away fav vs lefty.
TEX 2-7 at home w/ump Wegner and 4-10 with him as dog
 
Break up the Braves, averaging 8 runs per game on the season(6-0 when avg 8 runs for 5 str games)
Braves also 8-1 in APR-MAY with Welke behind plate

  • 963 Atlanta Braves +128
  • 963 Atlanta Braves +1½ -150
team = Braves and HPU in [Bill Welke] and month < 6
SU: 8-1 (3.56, 88.9%) avg line: -116.7 / 106.7 on / against: +$740 / -$764 ROI: +65.0% / -78.8%
RL: 7-0 (3.36, 100.0%) avg line: -112.2 / -102.0 on / against: +$882 / -$932 ROI: +94.8% / -100.0%
OU: 5-4-0 (2.61, 55.6%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: +$65 / -$140 ROI: +6.5% / -14.2%

season >= 2013 and team = Braves and Average(runs@team and season, N=5) >= 8
SU: 6-0 (3.17, 100.0%) avg line: 117.1 / -128.4 on / against: +$783 / -$833 ROI: +112.0% / -100.0%
RL: 5-1 (3.67, 83.3%) avg line: -125.1 / 110.1 on / against: +$415 / -$444 ROI: +54.1% / -65.2%
OU: 2-3-1 (-0.83, 40.0%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$135 / +$65 ROI: -21.1% / +9.6%


the over has a lot of history with these hurlers too, but I'm gonna refrain because I'm just not sure about Denver total adjustments right now
View attachment 31979
 
SAT 2-4 -2.78u
YTD 44-38-1 +1.04u

Bad day, but still pulled a couple wins with limited time to prepare. I'm supposed to be retired and mama had me laying fukn sod! (#^#%@*

RECAP:
  • 965 Baltimore Orioles +217 ❌
  • 952 Washington Nationals -154 ❌
  • 951 New York Mets/Washington Nationals Under 8 ✔️
  • 963 Atlanta Braves +128 ❌
  • 963 Atlanta Braves +1½ -150 ✔️
  • 975 Toronto Blue Jays -124 ❌
Hoping for better day today...
Good Luck Degens!
:smiledrinkbeer:
 
Lots of reasons to like the RedSox today, but the line isn't one. They still aren't hitting like they will but winning anyways. Got good cold weather pitcher, ump and home DIV games favor sox, esp early on
  • 918 Boston Red Sox -1½ +105
  • 917 Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox Under 8½ -120
 
  • 907 Arizona Diamondbacks/St. Louis Cardinals Over 7½ +100

Timmons very good over ump in cold. Remove temp parameter and it looks even better
6d18539a-c7f0-4aeb-9fbc-205ff18f80ea.png
 
mrpickem said:
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers +104
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers +1½ -155
Anderson has a stellar record over first 15 games of the season, esp compared to Quintana.
View attachment 31990


Also brewcrew performs well as home pup within division vs lefties...esp on RL

View attachment 31991
Click to expand...
Fuckin' hell Cubs were my fav for the day but I'm still learning SDQL for bases......keep posting mrp and hopefully I can still keep learning. You're putting up some great angles.

:cheers3:
 
Have to think LAD wins, cant imagine Kersh losing first 3. I like under.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers [C. Kershaw must start.] -vs- San Francisco Giants [T. Blach must start.] Under 8 1.952
Kershaw record vs Bach over last 2 years vs teams avg less than 4 runs(both these teams avg less than 3.5 so far)
f3d031f8-938d-4926-ab25-fb862f4aefd7.png
 
JROCK1966 said:
Fuckin' hell Cubs were my fav for the day but I'm still learning SDQL for bases......keep posting mrp and hopefully I can still keep learning. You're putting up some great angles.

:cheers3:
Click to expand...


Nothing is guaranteed, congrats on Cubs win. Can't win if you cant score lol
 
Full "Shit" Card:
  • 918 Boston Red Sox -1½ +105 ❌
  • 917 Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox Under 8½ -120 ❌
  • 902 Pittsburgh Pirates -150 ✔️
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers +104 ❌
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers +1½ -155 ❌
  • 907 Arizona Diamondbacks/St. Louis Cardinals Over 7½ +100 ❌
  • Los Angeles Dodgers /San Francisco Giants Under 8 -105 ✔️
  • 914 Washington Nationals -1 -120 ❌
  • 914 Washington Nationals -1½ +125 ❌
  • 913 New York Mets/Washington Nationals Under 8 -105 ❌
SUNDAY 2-8 -7.0u
YTD 46-46-1 -5.96u
 
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need strong finish
  • 914 Washington Nationals -1 -120
  • 914 Washington Nationals -1½ +125
  • 913 New York Mets/Washington Nationals Under 8 -105
Mets have allowed 2 or less runs for 4 straight games...weak I know, but I'm using that for my query
an_roll_laugh.gif


AD and tS(o:runs<3, N=4) = 4 and season >= 2015
SU: 14-27 (-0.93, 34.1%) avg line: 135.3 / -146.2 on / against: -$793 / +$637 ROI: -19.3% / +10.7%

RL: 23-18 (0.50, 56.1%) avg line: -161.4 / 150.9 on / against: -$639 / +$460 ROI: -9.5% / +11.2%

OU: 15-23-3 (-0.76, 39.5%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$1,038 / +$640 ROI: -23.1% / +14.1%
 
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