WEEK 2 ML DOGS

CHSGTMD

Pretty much a regular
Good start to week 1 with s-k coming through with So Carolina and Colt doing a good summary.
Biggest upsets were by Howard (+55000) and Liberty ... meant to parlay those two lol
Several close ones like Portland St and Youngstown St

On to Week 2 and on early look have a few I am considering, ( favorites are starred )
Duke +2 at home vs Northwestern
Ark State +17 at home against Miami who has look ahead to Florida State
Western Michigan +7 at Michigan State
* * Nevada +10 1/2 at home against Toledo
* * South Carolina +4 1/2 at Missouri
OU +8 at Ohio State
UTSA +17 at Baylor (already looking at this preseason and lost edge with Liberty win)
* * Stanford +5 at USC
 
Agree KJ though for Ark State a statement, GOY scene and at home so worth a look
Still a few lines not out but will likely be on the 3 starred plays above
 
I remember everybody said bad spot for Miami going into Boone NC to play App St last year and they waxed them 45-10. They did have a roadie with G Tech next, not a rival like FSU.
 
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https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/money-line/

Link to odds for Week 2.
And I will post Week 2 ML Dog winners in this post to keep for any review later in the year.

Week 2 ML Dog Winners : 17 this week
(BOL #s)
Wake +100
Duke +105
MTSU +250
E Mich +175
SD St +131
Minn +120
Rice +105
UTSA +355
Illinois +185
NM St +250
Okla +250
Jorga +170
UNLV+165
South Carolina +120
South Dakota +150 (5 Dimes)
Central Michigan +13
New Hampshire +250 (5 Dimes)
 
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First run through I see potential:

Buffalo +526 (at Army)
Damn Army looked like a well oiled machine vs Fordham and Fordham should've know what to expect with recent history vs them. Surprisingly Fordham O had nothing. Similar here, Buffalo has recent history vs Army. 2016 Army (-13') was 3-0 and lost at Buff in OT 23-20. 2014 season opener Army (-3) won 47-39. Buffalo D performed well vs Minny last week. I'm just waiting for Leipold to turn things around there.

Middle Tenn +282 (at Cuse)
Would think MTSU bunch will matchup a little better on O and D after facing Vandy last week. Would seem like a high scoring affair, back-and-forth game. Don't know much about this Cuse team I must say. MTSU 0-1 with another P5 road trip on deck (Min), I look for supreme effort here rather than big home game failure hangover.

Tulane +447 (at Navy)
Last year's game was a tough fight. Navy-6 won 21-14. The 2014 game (+23') with prior coaching staff was a close one for the first half then Tulane mistakes bit them. Banks likely gives Wave O some unique play making ability.

North Texas +400 (at SMU)
Need to examine this more, but not sure these teams are that different. SMU has was one the last 2 by 13 and 18.

UNLV +223 (at Idaho)
Bounceback ;)

Georgia +??? (at ND)
Major concern is Fromm's inexperience here, but also question ND's ability to throw vs UGA with consistency as well. May rather take my chances on Dawgs plus pts. How many pts is Eason worth? What was this GOY line?

Oklahoma +258 (at Ohio St)
Baker will need to keep his adrenaline under control in this game. Not sure he can shoulder this game without that outstanding running game from last year, but he'll definitely try to do it all. How that works? OU D probably bigger concern. Would have to keep this wager under my hat as my entire family are huge OSU fans, I tend to be a contrarian. If I played this I'd probably just take my chances on the 7' actually.

New Mexico State +246 (at New Mexico)
Battle of I-25! Something feels different about this NM St team this year. They had some big games on O last year, but I was fairly impressed with them at Az St, both side of the ball. Ags won last year 32-31 (+12'). No doubt Lobos will want revenge. 2015 game (+12') was tied 29-29 in 4th qrt, but Lobos won 38-29. 2014 (+3) was 38-35 Lobos.

UTSA +613 (at Baylor)
Opener for UTSA. But going against Anu Solomon is nice no matter who it is. Obviously major transition year under Rhule, wondering about their roster as well with all the attrition this team has faced. Definitely like the experience of UTSA and in 2nd year of their HC they should be improved this year while Baylor may still be like WTF just happened, I didn't sign up for this losing to Liberty shit. Rhule says no finger pointing or yelling following the loss...maybe there should've been.

Stanford +234 (at USC)
USC sure looked soft vs Western Michigan. Not buying the hype on USC, if nothing else how often are they hyped only to fall on their face somewhere? I tire of the love affair the media has with that team so maybe I'm biased. They will likely be better prepared this week given they face a conference opponent, but Stanford sure knows how to beat that bunch as often as they do it. Best D USC will play all year. It's all on Chryst if he will make enough plays. If Stanford doesn't do it this week, bet Texas will next!
 
UNLV
Oklahoma
Tulane
Auburn
Wake Forest (if they close the dog)
MTSU (volatile game where they could win or lose by three td easily)
Eastern Michigan
S Carolina even though I think they lose
Georgia (might be the better team even?)
Memphis
NMSU ( could lose by 24 too)
UTEP
Stanford
Minnesota

Ton of dogs this week look like value. Several of them might be the better team to boot.
 
Hard to make a big case for North Texas. SMU played some of the better teams on their schedule tough last season, while North Texas faultered vs most of their better competition. NT's OL will have to play really well for them to have a shot, SMU DL has a chance to be pretty good in a AAC sense. Last year DE Lawler destroyed NT and Mustangs have some other pieces to work with upfront this year. The back 7 isn't very scary, SMU reportedly are going to be really young at LB and the secondary lost their only two All Conference DBs from last year, but WR Sutton believes that CB Jordan Wyatt has next level ability (or he may just be paying his buddy a compliment).

Something different this year is that Mason Fine has a year starting under his belt as a tr fr and he only played two possessions in 4th qrt vs SMU week 1 last year as a true frosh. Fine led the team to 4 of their 5 wins last year. NT should be able to have some success by air and ground so long as the OL can do their job. RB Wilson should be a 1000+y RB, their #2 receiver is back and they added in a JUCO who was previously at Notre Dame, Jalen Guyton, he caught 4-63 in their run heavy output in week 1. Last year's starter Morris threw 3 INT vs SMU (2 on back-to-back possessions in the 1st qrt, the 3rd came with the score 7-17 and stopped a drive in SMU territory).

I'm not sure but NT could have the better QB in this game if we are comparing Fine to SMU's Ben Hicks. He started last year after Matt Davis was OFY and took the majority of the snaps last week, but Rafe Peavey (Ark transfer) played as well last week, him being a bit more of an unknown I kind of worry about him more than I do facing Hicks. Davis' scrambling out of the pocket and rushing was a big part of SMU's success last year and I suppose Peavey would be more of that style than Hicks. SMU's top QB recruit the last 2 years decommitted right before signing day, so Chad Morris has yet to get his own "star" to run the show. Many believe WR Courtland Sutton will be in the NFL next year, all the top receivers are back and they had a 1000y RB who returns. Outside of QB play, the OL may also be a question for SMU. C Evan Brown is very good, other than that nothing to write home about. They did have two Sr leave in August who started 25 combined the last 2 years and they already had to replace a couple quality guys from last year. So perhaps SMU could be vulnerable there.

However NT's D took a big hit this summer when Bryce English broke his foot. He was going to be the centerpiece of the 3-man DL at NT. Last year's NT Roderick Young is still around after moving to DE in camp so he can move back to the middle to atleast give them some experience there. Mean Green LB and DB units aren't bad and in some respects good (in a CUSA kind of way), but the D-line may be an issue. English will be able to play at some point this year, but not Saturday.

North Texas made some significant improvements last year and they should be more competitive this year even though they may not win more games. Given their growth last year and the fact they faced SMU week 1 in 2016 leads me to believe that this game now will be more competitive. But SMU is getting better as well even though they aren't without their own questions.

I think it boils down to:
1) SMU QB play even though NT D historically can be run on
2) NT OL play, if they can protect NT should be able to move the ball and be balanced

I may take a small chance on the Mean Green because, well, predicting upsets by large dogs will always be largely unpredictable, but they can and do happen and there is nothing more I enjoy than being on the right side of one of those. I hate to ever recommend anything because I think we all have to ultimately determine how we feel on a given play and be at peace with the outcome win or lose.
 
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Agree with a lot of the thoughts in here. Really like MTSU, NM St, and Western Michigan to win outright and will be on those for sure. Will likely be on UNC and a couple others too
 
I'd like to get some thoughts on Western Michigan. I'm having a hard time thinking that they can have steady and consistent success on the ground, which I think is the strength of their team now with the losses from last year at QB and receiver. I do like W Mich D still...would anyone suggest that maybe WM has the better D even? It may be. Just wondering if somebody could clue me in some on how the WM O vs Mich St D matchup might go? Or anyone liking the U 51'.
 
Memphis +130
Duke +140
Arkansas +140
UGA +160
Stanford +195
MN +115

I know these aren't high reward, but the last two appear to be sided wrong.
 
UTSA, SJSU, SDSU, Tulane

Can't back NMSU here -- too much pressure on Davie to win this one
 
I little $10 Round-Robbin by twos:

Nevada +290
Georgia +165
LaTech +270
Stanford +195
UNC +310
UNLV +210
Virginia +125
Duke +135
 
Going to play the following
OU +8 and ML +250
Stanford +7 and ML +230
So Carolina +3 and ML +135

Smaller plays and some two team ML parlays small on
Tulane +14 and ML +415
Nevada +10 and ML +320
Buffalo + 15 and ML +550

Way smaller
SJSU +1800
UTSA +700
Alabama St +30000
 
I'm probably just going to play the pts in Buffalo, MTSU and Stanford. May not play UGA at all.

Will probably go with NMSt ML though.

The last 3 years have been close competitive games. Having Rose back this year is huge, he gashed NMex last time he faced them. Jaleel Scott may have a breakout year at WR. Rogers can be up and down at QB, but he has experience and ability to move the ball and make plays. The OL is a bit of a concern, a couple of the new starters struggled at Az St with penalties and sacks allowed (5). The D was a nice bright spot for Ags in week 1 considering they faced a faster more athletic team than one would expect NMSt to matchup with. They gave up some plays through the air but were good vs the run and consistently got into the backfield. Spaziani has tweaked some things this year and Malik Demby has found a way onto the field and he responded with 5.5 TFL with 2 sacks. He gained 40 lbs this off season and appears to give them a new found play maker on D as a rusher who can drop into coverage. 3 other LB starters led the way in tackles vs Az St combining for 33.

This is probably the best D they've had in years here and the O has great potential if the key pieces stay healthy. New Mexico on the other hand is dealing with the loss of Dakota Cox at LB who led them in tackles 4 straight years. They have to replace 8 of their top 9 tacklers with an entirely new secondary. Lobo O is going to be good again. They lose leading rusher Gipson, but Chestnut could definitely top 1000 this year and their #2 from last year topped 1000 in 16 and returns. Jordan enters his 4th year on-and-off again starting. They lose their best OL and some other part time starters, but the OL should be strong.

A look back to last year, Lobos -12.5 at State.

NMSt RB Rose DNP. Apodaca started at QB for Lobos with Jordan only getting 1 series in the 2nd qrt.

Each team scored on their first 2 possessions with Lobos getting 2 TDs and NMSt getting 2 FGs. NMSt added another FG to trail 9-14. Lobos answered with their own FG before NMSt got their first TD (xpt no good). Lobos lead 17-15 halftime. 248-183 yard edge for Lobos at half. Teams traded TDs in the 3rd, 24-22. Lobos scored TD early 4th and NMSt had to settle for FG. 31-25. The only turnover of the game set up NMSt for a 27y TD "drive" for the 32-31 lead. NM was SOD at the State 38 and NMSt ran out the clock from there. Stats fairly even, slight edges for Lobos 23-22 FD, 336-307 TY, 68-70 plays, Lobos did get 5 sacks. State was 53% 3rd down, Lobos 30%. Not surprising Lobos had a 221-102 (4.9-2.9) RY advantage, but as expected State out passed them 205-115 (60-52%).

So this year we'll be getting Lamar Jordan at QB for Lobos and Larry Rose will be at RB for State. The last time Rose played vs NM in 2015 he ran for 21-260-3TDs! In 2015, his 2nd year starting off and on, vs NMSt Jordan passed for just 5 of 17 for 45y, but ran for 157 (9.8) as part of 3 Lobo rushers going over 100.

That 2015 battle was tight for 3 quarters. NMSt led 17-14 end of 1st qrt and 26-14 halftime. Lobos were able to tie 29-29 end 3rd qrt and then QB Rogers was knocked out of the game, next possession Lobos took the lead. Backup QB couldn't move the ball (threw INT and a few sacks) for Ags and Lobos tacked on a late safety for the 38-29 win.

From 2014-2016 those 3 games have been decided by combined 13 pts. The 2013 game was a 66-17 rout by Lobos.

Last week Abilene Christian loaded up to stop the run and Jordan answered with a career and Davie-era high 213 passing yards going 65%, but was sacked 3 times. NM was SOD twice in the first half, but had a 91y pick-six D TD in their 38-14 win. NM outgained them 481-282 with a 259-8 (6.5-0.4 ypc) rushing yard edge. NM was +2 TOs.

NM St lost 31-37 at Arz St, a game that saw them start and finish strong. It was just 13-14 HT. It was 13-23 Devils in the 3rd when NM St were SOD. With the score 13-30, NMSt then threw a pick-six for the 13-37 score. The Ags scored two quick TDs and then a garbage TD with :00 left. Aggies D got 7 sacks (1 shy of school record) and Rogers had career highs in att (57) and completions (40) with Jaleel Scott also posting career highs in rec (8) and yards (149). NMSt outgained Devils 549-400 and was 61% on 3rd down to Az St's 33%. Ags also outrushed them 182-129.
 
Shying away from Tulane ML, but still taking them with the pts.

I do like the fact that over the last 2 years, the upper classmen on D (which there are alot of) have faced option opponents 4 times. The D has six 5th year SRs atop the depth chart with the balance being true Sr or true and 4th year Jrs. One or two key members of that D are gone this year though. Marley was a nice MLB for them, but most importantly is the loss of DT Tanzel Smart, 1st tm AAC '15 and '16. When facing option teams I really like having a great DT in the middle to disrupt the middle of the OL. They've moved Aruna from DE to DT this year, Aruna is one of their best players, but I don't believe he has been asked to play inside before.

Tulane's D played well vs Navy last year, but that was only Will Worth's 2nd start and the week prior Navy nearly lost at UConn, so they weren't quite a smooth as they would later become in the 2016 season. Navy punted on 3 of their first 4 drives while also losing 2 fumbles for the game. Navy's D played even better with the advantage of facing a team that was converting to a spread option in just their 3rd game.

Tulane's O will be lead by JUCO QB Jonathan Banks who actually spent 2016 and 2014 at two different JCs and 2015 at Kansas St where I don't think he saw the field and don't know anything about his time there. I haven't seen him play yet, but the expectation is that he is going to provide a huge upgrade at QB...which in all honesty isn't hard to upgrade the position from 2016. Week 1 stats vs Grambling with a grain of salt 10 of 15 passing for 185 3 TD and rushed for 16-69-TD. The RB position is good, receivers servicable, OL ?

Abbey is only making his 4th career start for the Mids, but had the bowl practices and offseason with him learning to be #1. It appears like the seldom used passing game isn't anymore reliable with Abbey in consistent with his arm and unproven receiving targets. Vs FAU they were just 3 of 10 but those 3 did go for 110y (receptions of 15, 39, 56 yards). Three 1st or 2nd team All AAC OL are gone, but they are used to turnover on OL and should fair well as they normally do. I'm going to assume Navy D to improve this year after creeping above their normal averages. They are off to a good start, holding FAU under 300y and under 40y rushing in week 1.

Navy is good at what they do. Tulane is trying to get good at what they want to do. X factor is Banks at QB and what he can bring to the table and how the DT position can effect the LOS for the Wave. I feel comfortable with the risk taking +pts, but just haven't seen enough out of the 2016 version of Tulane to ML them. Wouldn't be surprised if they win, just can't in good faith bet on them doing it. Plus DD to be in a competitive game? I can go with that.
 
Going to tail you on NMSU s-k
Going to add a couple to my plays listed above

Iowa St +3 and ML +135
Minnesota +2 1/2 and ML +130
 
UTSA performed well as big dogs last year.

week 2 at CSU 14-23 +8/9.5
week 3 vs Arz St 28-32 +20.5 (led 28-12 late 3rd qrt)
week 5 vs SMiss 55-32 +16.5 (led 28-7 end 1st qrt)
week 9 at MTSU 45-25 +20 (led 14-7 2nd qrt when Stockstill was inj)
week 10 at La Tech 35-63 +22 (trailed 14-42 in 3rd)
week 11 at aTm 10-23 +27
bowl vs New Mex 20-23 +9.5

There was no big statistical advantages in any of those; in fact in they were outgained 235-328 at CSU, 322-469 vs Arz St, 532-557 vs SMiss, 310-473 at LaTech, 252-431 at aTm. They did hold a slight edge 378-369 at MTSU and in the bowl 364-296 (6.5 ypc - 4.2 ypc).

They are a very experienced team, I'd like a little more infusion of talent for them to knock off a Big Xll team...top two WRs are former walk-ons, QB is a former walk-on. But they've proven the ability to play over their heads.

It's a good collection of players on D led by All CUSA DE Davenport and MLB Tauaefa and the special teams are solid.

It's obviously a must win for Baylor's new staff after the embarrassing Liberty loss and while I'm not sure they can be that bad two weeks in a row, I do wonder the overall strength of their roster in light of all the defections they have suffered. The defense played horrible vs Liberty. The secondary is very young, a trueFr, rFr and 2 sophs listed as starters in the weekly depth chart release. Last week BU had just 3 safeties dressed, this week they will have 6 with the biggest addition being Davion Hall is expected back. Their top CB recruit true frosh Harrison Hand will make his 2nd start. All Big Xll KJ Smith was listed as doubtful Tuesday, he is listed as starting on the depth chart, I haven't read any update on his status however.

Baylor's OL features a true Fr C, a player who was TE before fall camp at LG both are starting. All indications point to Solomon starting his second game, he was just 48% week 1, but did pass for 278 3 TD, INT and rushed for 97. True Frosh Lovett is starting at RB and everyone is high on him, but depth behind him is virtually nonexistent with their top 2 out with injury.

There is just so much to be uncertain about with Baylor, so many holes and weaknesses I am still gun shy to ML against them due last week's loss, I might feel more comfortable doing it had they in fact won last week. The effort and focus admitted by the players last week wasn't there. I'm afraid it will be there this week. Not that it makes up for deficiencies on the roster, but they aren't as bad as last week. UTSA hasn't played a game yet this year so you have that disadvantage to any rust or bugs that can pop up in game 1 for them.

I'm on Roadrunners + pts, but in this situation don't think I can bet them to win.
 
Going to tail you on NMSU s-k
Going to add a couple to my plays listed above

Iowa St +3 and ML +135
Minnesota +2 1/2 and ML +130

:cheers3:

Either spread or ML I'm with you on most your plays.
 
Had to run out.

Loaded up on the +3.5 chsgtmd, but no ML for me on ISU

50 to win 208 on North Texas
50 to win 113 on NM St
 
This may be the week we have few that hit. I'm not feeling many this week. Just Ark for so far.
I was on Iowa St ML and +3. So much for that.
 
Lots of nice upset winners today. Shame I only took 2 and only 1 of my actual ML plays hit, a little cautious, but some nice ATS covers on them dogs.

Had to sweat out the NM St game, was watching on facebook, then my internet started going out when Lobos were making their comeback and had to scramble to get score updates all the way until the very end.
 
Kind of funny in a way that none of us suggested Boise. Man their D...

Unless Wash St gets their shit in gear, Boise on their way to winning 5 out of their last 6 vs P5 I think it is.

The O was bad last week and I don't know what they hell they are doing with Cozart, but it is working. Maybe they feel they need to have him in to supplement the running game. That Boise D has been looking good 2 weeks straight now. They go from -11 at home vs Wazzou last year to +10 at Wazzou, we all overlooked it. Hindsight I guess
 
LOL...Boise has won 101 straight when leading by 21, they are now tied 31-31 W St ball under 1 min left. Cozart has played the 4th quarter like he used to play at Kansas...
 
I'll be out of town next week with limited ability to contribute to next week's thread. Keep up the good work everyone.
 
good grief Boise, that Cozart pick 6 changed everything then to go to 3 OT
did have over 27 and Boise +4 for 2nd half so with the other wins by OU, NMSU, UTSA and So Carolina was a good day
best to all, will be ready for week 3 and safe travels s-k
 
Absolutely. I will get all the ML Dog Winners listed in this thread in a few.

On to Week 3. Great work fellas.
 
UNLV
Oklahoma
Tulane
Auburn
Wake Forest (if they close the dog)
MTSU (volatile game where they could win or lose by three td easily)
Eastern Michigan
S Carolina
even though I think they lose
Georgia (might be the better team even?)
Memphis
NMSU ( could lose by 24 too)
UTEP
Stanford
Minnesota

Ton of dogs this week look like value. Several of them might be the better team to boot.


I identified 8 of them and didn't ml any of them
 
Nice thread. Well done gents. I had Uga ML and didn't have the balls on OU. This thread help a lot. :cheers3:
 
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