***Week 2 Lex***

Lexington 125

I cap it all, and I cap it well.
nfl 14-18 +6.09


Not going to separate straight wagers & longshot parlays in the record.

A couple already in

Bills+118

Kincaid rec yds o42.5-112

3 units each


Bills tt o10.5 1sth

Bills tt o23.5 gm

Ray Davis rush yds o9.5-116

1.5 units each



Keon TD+185

Kincaid rec yds o64.5+260

Kincaid o42.5/ Keon o54.5/ Allen anytime td (+800)

1 unit each
 
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Really like what I saw offensively from the Bills week 1. All of the major additions made plays and Josh took the game over. One positive about the Diggs departure is Josh won't be trying to force feed him the ball even when it's not the play. Cook is a problem even if he doesn't have a knack for getting in the ez. Would think Ray gets a couple packages now dude had 2 12+ yard plays in like 5 snaps i believe. Keon with the huge catch 4 on 5 targets only serves to build trust with Allen no doubt he gets looks in the redzone.

I did expect Brady to pound the run but I loved the adjustments. Rewatching some of the game Zona had Kincaid completely blanketed throughout obvious passing situations and Allen took full advantage of that. Now this week Miami is going to have to prepare for a larger wr in Keon & the speed of Hollins/shakir. I don't think they will be keying in on Dalton as much which hopefully opens up some looks. No way on earth he only gets targeted twice I would say 6 minimum targets maybe more. Love the low yardage # here as one big gainer can get you more than halfway home. He had a 29 yard catch last meeting @ miami and went for 84 yards. Who covers him? Bills offense healthy outside of Allen's non throwing hand injury. Likely to be a non issue.

Defensively they looked like they were about to allow 500 yards but only allowed a fg 2ndh. Murray also gets the blame for not seeing/ hitting open targets but Rousseau balled out and they made some good tackles. Losing Taron really hurts this defense, but no Mostert and a banged up Achane might erase some of that weakness. I still think Jeff Wilson swings out of the backfield might be the best weapon for Miami and behind hill/Waddle just torching the d backs it is my biggest concern. It's always scary forcing a rookie db into more playing time like Buf has to do with Ingram. Nobody scarier to face than Cheetah & co. with Hamlin at safety to boot.

To me this total looks so low that it's fishy to me- opened at 50 and dropped? Even with Miami weapons hurt/out I wouldn't touch anything under related. Jags scored 17 1sth Bills allowed 28 I would have thought 51 opener but hey what do I know. If Tua can get some protection there will be large plays open downfield.... I think Allen is gonna torch Miami especially if Ramsey is really hurt. Poyer is washed someone is gonna get behind this defense.
 
@B.A.R. i think he rebounds in a big way. Two targets because zona clearly game planned to take him away. Allen responded lw by spreading the ball around but I don’t think Miami comes with same game plan. He’s had 7+targets in most games and went over this number 9 of last 12 played.

I think he will end up with the most targets on the team and will be a force. Too big for cbs too fast for lbs. Brady’s offense is geared to get the ball to rbs and tight ends and the more Keon/Hollis make plays it’ll result in Kincaid getting open.

It looks to me like cook/kincaid will be doing the heavy lifting yardage wise. Outside of Allen running tds I think shakir has a nose for the ez and Hollins may be a bigger pickup than ppl think. If Keon keeps making plays this offense might be better than last season
 
Man Knox yards only 13.5! He could get nothing but I like him for 2 catches ;he could even have a tuddy). Gotta love cook his rush+Rex At 82.5 screams money. Feel like might as well bet Allen to score a td every week while it cheap. I like their direction and think it ok for few lpisswsssums when they gonna be super efficient in red Zone
 
@2daBank I could see a Knox td/yds over…. Especially if they decide to go 12 personnel and pound the run.

Everyone and their mother is on Cook props this week. I get it and it looks like a soft line but one thing keeping me from loving it- a ton of work last week and now a short week they may give ray & ty some drives. Ray was only in for 5 or 6 plays and had two 12+ yd first downs so I’d expect an uptick. Not to say cook doesn’t get there anyway
 
I'm really all over the place but some more thoughts

Bills D I would expect them to be in cover 2 way more than they normally would. They will be putting a ton of effort into not getting beat deep. Rasul & Benford are I think better than advertised. The problem is after that Ingram is a rookie, Cam started rough but made some plays might be too slow. Hamlin at fs & Rapp who can be spotty is not what you want vs the Fins. (side note I don't see many on Waddle props but he usually does well vs Buf).

IDK if they stay playing more nickle as they normally would even without Taron. The way I see it the weakness at LB once you get deeper could be even more glaring. Therefore could see Elam in coverage something to watch they may opt for speed over size.

I think they'll do whatever to not get beat deep and there will be a ton of underneath all day. Honestly if Mostert/Achane were healthy I would be banging the over. Wilson is more than capable & I have him in some longshot sgp but being able to rotate all three rbs I think would have been too much for Buffalo to handle. SOoooooo I think it comes down to making tackles and holding Miami to fg attempts while somehow stopping these wrs from going off. D Line made plays last week but will need to create more steady pressure to knock Tua off kilter. Rousseau breakout season has begun if he gets going it'll be huge. Oliver needs to show up too.

Tua 1-7 vs buf? LFG

It's likely advantageous for Miami to take all the underneath stuff and keep the chains moving.

It would be best if the Bills sustain long drives and wear the D down while keeping Cheetah/Waddle/Achane sitting down.

For that reason I could see some grinding, but it's all out the window should someone go up 2 tds. High total given how gameflow could very well be, but that's not enough for me to consider anything under related at all.
 
Kincaid yds over is my favorite wager prop wise. Likely it won't be less than 58 after tonight.

I thought the same lw with the low Keon yds #

Keon I think there is a HUGE effort to get him the ball should they get in RZ. They tried to lw after the big catch and if they plan on him being that dude then best believe Allen wants him to score. He's big and he caught the ball lw. MHjr didn't hahahaha.
 
Full transparency I know there will be at least 3x where a Miami wr is running free behind coverage because the Bills secondary is not whole. The question is will Tua be able to make the read & get it out on time? If he does they win.
 
Kincaid yds over is my favorite wager prop wise. Likely it won't be less than 58 after tonight.

I thought the same lw with the low Keon yds #

Keon I think there is a HUGE effort to get him the ball should they get in RZ. They tried to lw after the big catch and if they plan on him being that dude then best believe Allen wants him to score. He's big and he caught the ball lw. MHjr didn't hahahaha.
Both Keon and Kincaid are on multiple fantasy teams - hence my question yesterday.

These two both should have big years.

Thanks for the thoughts there...

I was honestly between Dalton and Keon for a yards prop tonight. I'm glad I went with Kincaid now seeing your full approval. The posts yesterday definitely helped in the confidence department.
 
@B.A.R. Let's go! So many props look nice but don't they always.

I'm still waiting for that Kincaid td explosion because no way he doesn't get rolling at some point. What better team than Miami to do it but I gotta see it first. Keon I think they REALLY want to score.
 
Edited in a couple more

Bills 1sth & game total- don’t believe in this fins d to stop Allen who I’ll say again might be taking it more personal this year. Could get 14 himself but let’s hope he spreads the wealth today

Ray yds over 9.5 how do they not give him a little more run? Got there with one carry lw maybe he gets 3-6 carries tonight?
 
I got Kincaid receptions over 4.5…I think both should hit. Was thinking over in targets too, 6.5. Glad to see you on it.

And yes, they were doubling Kincaid last game, all over him.

GL tonight Lex!
 
nfl 14-18 +6.09


Not going to separate straight wagers & longshot parlays in the record.

A couple already in

Bills+118

Kincaid rec yds o42.5-112

3 units each


Bills tt o10.5 1sth

Bills tt o23.5 gm

Ray Davis rush yds o9.5-116

1.5 units each



Keon TD+185

Kincaid rec yds o64.5+260

Kincaid o42.5/ Keon o54.5/ Allen anytime td (+800)

1 unit each
Great card!
 
Did not think the beat down would be this epic…. Kincaid prop flames out no real reason to throw. 2ndh total has no chance should have took the small profit but got cute
 
Did not think the beat down would be this epic…. Kincaid prop flames out no real reason to throw. 2ndh total has no chance should have took the small profit but got cute
Hey, take the positive that both sides of the ball are cooking (no pun).

We basically lost 25-35% of the game, minimum, for the passing game.

That's props, blowouts are the factor that can hurt overs.

Good capping wins out.
 
Sunday

Ravens tt o24.5

Cowboys-6

Jets-3.5-117

4 units each


CeeDee Lamb rec yds o79.5/TD (+165)

49ers/Vikings 1sth o22.5-120

Amon-ra yds o83.5

2 units each

SGP +1800
Ravens-4
Henry rush o64.5 /TD
Zay Flowers rec o44.5/ TD
Justice rush & rec o30.5

1 unit
 
I am deducing from all your plays that you are concerned about Ravens defense?

BOL today!
I'm not and actually think they get a turnover or two... gardener might just throw a pick six. I hate public faves and high NFL lines in general. I think the Ravens flex here and the line is high for a reason, but 27-13 type domination with a late Adams bomb for the cover is totally some shit that would happen. SHOULD the raiders come out and score early to go up I like the Raven's chances of scoring pts even more.

It's a play on Lamar at home where I think they score 31
 
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