Week 2. Don't overreact to last week's lack of offense. BILLS MAFIA takes over MIAMI .

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Pretty much a regular
What's up Family ???


Edit
Sunday slate


CHIEFS ML + PACHECO TD +102. ( my favorite investment of the day )
$420 to win $428.40
PACHECO Td is at -145 , predicting fairly soon he'll be on the other side of -200 weekly ...


DJ MOORE 70+ YARDS +105
$300/315. 1.5 units
Bears might be playing behind or playing keep up . Both Keenan Allen and Odunze are banged up, while they might play will they be effective???


Jonathan Taylor TD -105
$210/200. 1 U
Was expecting this to be closer -145 .


JAGUARS-3 -120.
$240/200
Brownies roster is extremely banged up ..Dount a pissed of Jags team lets up .



HOGS. -2 -108
$216/200 ( 1 UNIT )
Only side I'm jumping on mid week. Crazy that Danny dimes has thrown more pick 6's than TD's since signing his 160m contract ..


Parlay/teaser -104
$208/200
Over 44.5 Lions vs Bucs
Over 42.5 Cards vs Rams
Both of these might sail over their Posted totals but I'll gladly buy some points for comfort ...













The BILLS are up on Thursday as a small dog vs a team they've owned since Saint Josh's arrival. No this will not be a mortgage wager (6+ units ) , but this seems like the perfect spot for Buffalo.
Major questions about the Dolphins O line and defense , main antonogist /Josh Allen scrotum grabber Christian Wilkins is gone ..Speedsters Achane and Mostert are already banged up.

Anyways


I'm waiting as it's +114 ML, +2.5 right now , but it might climb as the media pumps up ALLEN'S left hand injury...

Edit: Wednesday night update
Mostert has been ruled out as well as key BILLS NB Taron Johnson although Cam Lewis and JaMarcus Ingram stepped up big time last week.
Achane is still up in the air .


After watching both teams games on all 22 I'm not sure making a decent size wager on the BILLS ML or ATS is a great idea.
The BILLS secondary played a very loose zone for much of the first half last week and couldn't make the key stops.
While the 2nd half adjustments changed the game ( blitzing up the middle ) , I'm not sure that will work on the quick releasing Tua.

The BILLS offense was extremely sloppy during the 1st half with JV level penalties. Although I guess during week 1 it's expected .
The play design looked very vanilla , like they were keeping it simple with a division rival on deck. Gone were the bubble screens to emerging Dalton Kincaid or the reoccurring swing routes to the backs. Maybe they held back thinking they'd beat the Cards regardless???

This game might go sailing over the total , my concern is if the BILLS can establish the run they might shorten the game/ burn the clock .


Another angle is maybe the Cards are much improved and the JAGS are a 6 or less win team this season ..

Thursday night 6:30 update ...
Not a huge fan of the forecast for the BILLS as the game wears on . Temp feels will be mid 90's /humid ....We've had some very nice hot days here in wny lately ( it's 85 right now ) but not much humidity. Very happy it's a night game , but have to imagine the BILLS will have some cramping in the 2nd half ...

Positives for the BILLS
Inside of the Dolphins line has some questions so Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones might have a big game . AFC defensive player of the week GROOT ROUSSEAU will battle Austin Johnson who played fantastic last week vs the Jags ....

Recently Cut By Dolphins QB Mike White led the BILLS scout team this week and some of last week vs the number one defense. Wonder if he can help the BILLS D with some of Miamis philosophies ???


I'll pass on any homer laiden BILLS ML bets despite the DOLPHINS being a porus 1-6 vs teams with a winning record last year....The team total over 22.5 Is a much better bet at only -125 IMO ....Win or lose I think the BILLS get to 23+ ....


GO BILLS
 
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Week 1 results -$592
Thankfully to only lose this much last week . Before Sunday night this number was $1842.

Nice looking slate Sunday.

ALL action on DK since the SENECA BUFFALO casino has turned into a holes lately. Slow rolling my wagers , raising juice at the window during the betting process, limiting futures wager amounts to $40


HOGS. -2 -108
$216/200 ( 1 UNIT )
Only side I'm jumping on mid week. Crazy that Danny dimes has thrown more pick 6's than TD's since signing his 160m contract ..



Tbc
 
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Adding


My favorite parlay for tonight +216. ($250 to WIN $540)
BILLS OVER 22.5 -135
COOK OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS


Hard to imagine a scenario where Cook doesn't get the dumpoffs from Allen as I'm guessing the DollFans will spy Allen leaving the flats open on occasion...
 
Low risk TD PROP

RAY DAVIS TD
+750. $34/$255
+800. $7/$56
Cook is a little light to be used inside the 5 and the Phins have done a decent job laying hits on Josh inside near the goal line. With Allen's non throwing hand dinged why not use the low center of gravity stocky rookiw rb to get a short TD ?? He looked good in light work last week , and is already a fan and teammate favorite ..
 
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Adding


My favorite parlay for tonight +216. ($250 to WIN $540)
BILLS OVER 22.5 -135
COOK OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS


Hard to imagine a scenario where Cook doesn't get the dumpoffs from Allen as I'm guessing the DollFans will spy Allen leaving the flats open on occasion...
jumped on that with you

also added another with James cook over 73 rush yds to make it +475
 
Thursday night 6:30 update ...
Not a huge fan of the forecast for the BILLS as the game wears on . Temp feels will be mid 90's /humid ....We've had some very nice hot days here in wny lately ( it's 85 right now ) but not much humidity. Very happy it's a night game , but have to imagine the BILLS will have some cramping in the 2nd half ...

Positives for the BILLS
Inside of the Dolphins line has some questions so Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones might have a big game . AFC defensive player of the week GROOT ROUSSEAU will battle Austin Johnson who played fantastic last week vs the Jags ....

Recently Cut By Dolphins QB Mike White led the BILLS scout team this week and some of last week vs the number one defense. Wonder if he can help the BILLS D with some of Miamis philosophies ???


I'll pass on any homer laiden BILLS ML bets despite the DOLPHINS being a porus 1-6 vs teams with a winning record last year....The team total over 22.5 Is a much better bet at only -125 IMO ....Win or lose I think the BILLS get to 23+ ....


GO BILLS
 
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
+$196 YTD

PARLAY +105
$150
LIVERPOOL-1 -305
MAN CITY -1.5

Would bet more on this but chanpions league play kicks off in just a few days..Wonder if they rest late??
 
You made a correct analysis, but you were afraid to pull the trigger. Lesson there.


I already have so much money tied up on the annual Bills futures , that factoring in also held me back...

You're right though, should have just hammered the BILLS s up ..Made some profitable live bets starting when it was 7-7 but those don't count here..


Best of luck this weekend Brother..Sweep your slate $$$
 
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For the LOCAL readers or anyone who can bet on section 6 HS football


BENNETT 24.5 @ Hutch Tech
Bennett $275/250
Tigers are home from DC after getting waxed as a 28 point dog 0-42 by nationally ranked St. JOHNS ..
TIGERS pour it on here but they're still breaking in several key players ...

ORCHARD PARK 6.5 @ NIAGARA FALLS
NIAGARA FALLS ML +140 $50
Should be much improved this season .



KENMORE WEST. 7. CLARENCE
CLARENCE +7. $132/120
Shocked at this line , wonder if the Red Devils have several out as I thought they'd be laying at least a FG ..
 
For the LOCAL readers or anyone who can bet on section 6 HS football


BENNETT 24.5 @ Hutch Tech
Bennett $275/250
Tigers are home from DC after getting waxed as a 28 point dog 0-42 by nationally ranked St. JOHNS ..
TIGERS pour it on here but they're still breaking in several key players ...

ORCHARD PARK 6.5 @ NIAGARA FALLS
NIAGARA FALLS ML +140 $50
Should be much improved this season .



KENMORE WEST. 7. CLARENCE
CLARENCE +7. $132/120
Shocked at this line , wonder if the Red Devils have several out as I thought they'd be laying at least a FG ..





2-1 +$320

Bennett wins 56-8

Falls loses in OT 28-34

Clarence wins 40-24.
 
Adding

Parlay/teaser -104
$208/200
Over 44.5 Lions vs Bucs
Over 42.5 Cards vs Rams
Both of these might sail over their Posted totals but I'll gladly buy some points for comfort ...
 
Adding

DJ MOORE 70+ YARDS +105
$300/315. 1.5 units
Bears might be playing behind or playing keep up . Both Keenan Allen and Odunze are banged up, while they might play will they be effective???
 
Adding
CHIEFS ML + PACHECO TD +102
My favorite investment of the day
$420/428.40.
PACHECO Td is at -145 , predicting fairly soon he'll be on the other side of -200 weekly ...
 
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Adding

Jacksonville-2 -120
$240/200
Despite Engram injury himself during warm-ups ...
Browns are really banged up and maybe this Watsons last start .
 
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