Week 19

[mrpickem]

Sunday 5-3
Week 37-32 +9.4u
After break +9.5u

Had a pretty good week, could have been stellar if not for the 1-6 debacle on Thurs. Hopefully can build on this bit of success moving forward

• 903 Colorado Rockies +1½ -170 https://goo.gl/VfVJXE
• 903 Colorado Rockies/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 -115 https://goo.gl/QBmG4g
• 905 Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7½ -105
• 909 Cleveland Indians -123 https://goo.gl/WJvgWv cle never a dog in div '17-'18
• 911 Toronto Blue Jays +144 chance with estrada
• 913 Houston Astros/Seattle Mariners Under 7 +100
• 916 Boston Red Sox -144 may be on wrong side here

randoms...

monday records
bos 7-1, tb 9-2, oak 7-2, sea 5-2, lad 7-3, cle 8-4
kc 2-10, chw 2-8, bal 2-8, tex 3-9, sd 4-10

record L60
home: bos 20-7, sea 20-9, lad 17-9, min 18-10...sd 9-16
road: hou 17-8 ...mil 10-16, sf 10-15, mia 11-15

record L90 vs lefty
hou 17-14
tex 13-14, sl 10-12, atl 13-16, phi 7-9, az 12-15
sf 12-16 , sd 6-16

today's starters in 2018
top$$- cole 17-4 +10u, nola 15-6 +8.3u, price 14-6 +7u
worse- maeda 8-9 -7.1u, lauer 5-12 -5.3u, perez 2-6 -3.7u

L365
nola 20-12 +7u..#11 money starter
price 14-6 +7u..#12

 

[mrpickem]

Hard explaining why but snakes go over the total in first series game at home a lot..64% 21% ROI over 4.5 years and 10-5 so far this year

team = Diamondbacks and H and season > 2013 and FGS
SU: 61-59 (-0.26, 50.8%) avg line: -117.0 / 106.0 on / against: -$756 / +$222 ROI: -5.0% / +1.6%

RL: 55-65 (-0.61, 45.8%) avg line: 116.3 / -131.4 on / against: -$132 / -$607 ROI: -1.0% / -3.6%

OU: 70-39-11 (1.78, 64.2%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: +$2,778 / -$3,738 ROI: +21.1% / -28.3%



so wth, i'll bite

• 917 Texas Rangers/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8½ -106

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 909 Cleveland Indians* -1½ +115

more ammo on CLE

avg AL pitcher with lights out pen over L5 and line with 25 of even...sine 2013

ML 60% winner and 19.4% ROI
RL 60% winner and 13.3% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

MONDAY 5-4

I hate the f'n injuns and yet they are the one that cost me..had to add the RL as well. Was pumping SEA all day and even when lineup came out with 2 studs resting, still didn't have the nads to play it.

TUESDAY:

• 953 New York Mets/Washington Nationals Under 9 -110 https://goo.gl/Me2kUs
• 956 Pittsburgh Pirates -107 https://goo.gl/S97FhY
• 960 St. Louis Cardinals -115 SL 23-5 vs rox at home
• 961 Milwaukee Brewers +159 https://goo.gl/E4EFNP
• 965 Los Angeles Angels -124 https://goo.gl/Us58B8 / https://goo.gl/Z4R2Sh
• 969 Cleveland Indians/Minnesota Twins Under 8½ -105 https://goo.gl/WJvgWv
• 971 Toronto Blue Jays +156 https://goo.gl/26TUQt
• 976 Boston Red Sox -150 https://goo.gl/CZPTGa
• 978 Detroit Tigers -1½ +170

randoms...

tuesday records
az 13-3, mil 12-4, nyy 11-4, sea 11-5, hou 10-6, bos 10-6
bal 3-11, det 4-11, pit 4-10, chw 6-11, nym 6-16, sf 6-10,

record L60
home: bos 21-6, tb 18-7, nyy 17-7, sea 20-9, min 19-10...sd 9-17
road: lad 19-9, oak 21-10 ...kc 7-19, tor 8-18, , min 9-20, tb 10-19, nym 9-17

record L90 vs lefty
tb 14-8, cin 12-11
was 8-11, phi 7-10, sf 12-16, mia 9-13
pit 9-14, chw 5-13

today's starters in 2018
top$$- lester 17-4 +12.4u, leake 14-7 +9.6u, rodriguez 7-2 +5.1u
worse- roarke 6-14 -11.4u, bailey 1-12 -10.5u, shields 7-15 -6.5u

L365
lester 23-10 +10.1u..#5 $$ starter
leake 19-12 +9u .. #9
bailey 6-18 -10.2u..#11 best fade

View attachment 33876​

View attachment 33874 View attachment 33875​

Gotta love the SI babes, esp one that's been doing it 5+ years​

 

[mrpickem]

some afternoon action...

• 952 San Diego Padres -105

tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= .255 and sA(SRA, N=5) >= 3.75 and o:STDSERA <= 3 and -125 < line < 125 and season >= 2013 and month < 9
SU: 70-56 (0.55, 55.6%) avg line: 102.4 / -112.4 on / against: +$1,583 / -$2,253 ROI: +12.0% / -15.7%
RL: 78-48 (1.14, 61.9%) avg line: -127.7 / 111.0 on / against: +$2,424 / -$3,093 ROI: +13.0% / -19.5%
OU: 58-64-4 (0.40, 47.5%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$1,222 / +$50 ROI: -8.8% / +0.4%

 

[mrpickem]

may as well fade stros...lost 5 str, 2 studs out again, charlie has regressed

• 974 Seattle Mariners +152

plus this angle with 14% ROI and near 250 sample over 10 years

A and tA(o:runs) <= 3.9 and league = AL and month = 7 and season >= 2008
SU: 100-143 (-0.26, 41.2%) avg line: -103.4 / -108.4 on / against: -$5,166 / +$4,090 ROI: -17.8% / +13.8%

RL: 111-132 (-0.15, 45.7%) avg line: -127.1 / 113.0 on / against: -$5,514 / +$4,117 ROI: -16.2% / +14.4%

OU: 113-114-16 (0.68, 49.8%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$1,054 / -$1,143 ROI: -4.0% / -4.2%

 

[mrpickem]

TUESDAY 3-8

Rough night, time to bounce baaack

WEDNESDAY:

• 903 Chicago Cubs -113
• 905 Miami Marlins +158
• 907 Colorado Rockies +1½ -200
• 907 Colorado Rockies +129
• 913 Cleveland Indians -166
• 913 Cleveland Indians/Minnesota Twins Under 9 -105
• 916 Oakland Athletics -126

View attachment 33887

 

[bee172]

Rockies & A’s are my leans .. BOL sir

 

[Gaius.T]

Good Luck MrP.

If I can bother you with a query. How have teams fared after such a momentous offensive outburst like the Nats? Maybe 20+?
Was thinking Mets in some form.

 

[mrpickem]

Good Luck MrP.

If I can bother you with a query. How have teams fared after such a momentous offensive outburst like the Nats? Maybe 20+?
Was thinking Mets in some form.

12-20 after scoring 20 or more since '04 as that's as far as sdql database goes back LINK

 

[Gaius.T]

Awesome Thank you you as always! Had to run out for some family stuff. In that case a good thing!

 

[mrpickem]

WEDNESDAY 4-2

Was flirting with a perfect night until rox went south on me, still decent.

THURSDAY:

• 955 Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals Under 8 -107 https://goo.gl/iv5sXz
• 957 Atlanta Braves -158 https://goo.gl/6Gy2i5 plus ny 9-20 @ home and atl 7-2 thurs
• 961 Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7½ -110
• 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +135 https://goo.gl/DzdFcm
• 963 San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 7½ -110
• 969 New York Yankees +107 ny 18-3 vs lefty this year
• 969 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Under 10 -110 https://goo.gl/rAhCp1

Will be waiting for line on PHI...may also add another 1-2

View attachment 33904​

 

[bee172]

Was leaning under in Mil/LAD but weary cause Kershaw velo down and he’s been having to get out of quite a few jams routinely. Allowing more base runners versus the Kershaw we once knew.

Braves look enticing too.

 

[mrpickem]

Was leaning under in Mil/LAD but weary cause Kershaw velo down and he’s been having to get out of quite a few jams routinely. Allowing more base runners versus the Kershaw we once knew.

Braves look enticing too.

still has only allowed over 2 runs twice in L10..3 vs WAS right after return and 4 vs LAA
u can always say not like kersh of old,,,wtf was. that was god-like territory
View attachment 33913

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 952 St. Louis Cardinals -139
• 954 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110

 

[bee172]

still has only allowed over 2 runs twice in L10..3 vs WAS right after return and 4 vs LAA
u can always say not like kersh of old,,,wtf was. that was god-like territory
View attachment 33913

Yup I hear you. It just feels more risky cause he’s allowing more base runners so one or two shots we can get nailed on the total. I miss the god like Kershaw lol

 

[mrpickem]

gonna fade chisox

• 967 Kansas City Royals +125 https://goo.gl/njgGdd

 

[mrpickem]

last add..glad I waited was 9O15 earlier

• 973 Toronto Blue Jays/Seattle Mariners Over 9 +105

 

[mrpickem]

I lied..one more

• 960 Chicago Cubs -155

It looks too easy and probably is
Monty only hit hard once when he seen cards twice in 5 days
cubs 18-7 vs lefty
sd 10-23 vs lefty
erlin 12.86 era on year, 13.50 on road
sd 2-11 after day off
cubs 9-2 on thurs
etc......................

 

[mrpickem]

THURSDAY 4-8

Shit nite even though I did hit a small parlay and covered NYY loss with BOS +320 in-game...still no way to spin it other than crap

FRIDAY:

• 904 Pittsburgh Pirates -1½ +150
• 906 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +125 https://goo.gl/TfMrna / https://goo.gl/UGx86b
• 914 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +110 https://goo.gl/4H27eB / https://goo.gl/RXsgMf
• 916 Boston Red Sox +123 https://goo.gl/JCqMrT
• 919 Los Angeles Angels* +180 https://goo.gl/18ejR3

randoms...

thursday records
tor, col, mil, pit 12-6, az 11-6
atl 5-13, det 5-12, chw 5-11, sd 6-12

record L60
home: tb 21-7, bos 19-7, oak 14-7, cubs 18-9, sea 18-10...nym 9-20, tex 10-15
road: hou 18-6, bos 18-9 ...bal 6-18, laa 7-18, kc 8-20, chw 9-18

record L90 vs lefty
det 15-11, hou 18-14
sf 11-16, sea 12-16
sd 6-17

today's starters in 2018
top$$- Gonzales 15-6 +8u, severino 18-4 +7.9u, porcello 15-7 +6.2u, stratton 11-7 5.6u
worse- verlander 13-10 -12u, clevinger 8-13 -9.5u, deGrom 8-13 -9.3u

L365
severino 28-8 +13.4u..#1 $$ starter
stratton 17-10 +10.7u..#2
deGrom 11-20 -15.7u..#1 fade

 

[mrpickem]

missed one

• 909 Atlanta Braves +130 https://goo.gl/BJUAxc

 

[mrpickem]

couldn't resist LAD at home at even. Velander only 3-5 L8 at enormous chalk. even though stros lead the league in run differential of 1.6 pg, they have actually reversed that over L7 game avg only 3.3 while allowing 4.6. Wood too has pitched better allowing just 2 runs over last 2 starts and would have had 7 straight quality starts but was pulled after 5.2inn vs braves after giving up only 1 hit and no runs

• 930 Los Angeles Dodgers -103

Here you can see OAK has been most profitable bet by a good margin since Jun 1. Also of note is the Doyers are 3 while the Stros are 23rd!

View attachment 33928

 

[mrpickem]

more fodder..put this in your pipe and smoke it...hou 1-7 this year when not favored by over 125

View attachment 33929

 

[mrpickem]

excuse me, that was away...they are 2-11 including all games

View attachment 33930

 

[mrpickem]

FRIDAY 5-2

Had a decent night...but a bad drunk o_O..getting too old for this sheit

SATURDAY:

• 956 Philadelphia Phillies -164
• 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -135
• 968 Tampa Bay Rays -156
• 976 Oakland Athletics -181
• 976 Oakland Athletics -1½ +110
• 981 Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals Over 9½ -105 Game 1

 

[mrpickem]

SATURDAY 3-3

Meh..lost a unit, but I did tail @berryhorse and made a few...was gonna play M's but went with the horse instead

SUNDAY:

• 901 Atlanta Braves -130 11-4 on sun, https://goo.gl/YfJwrZ
• 901 Atlanta Braves/New York Mets Under 8½ -105 https://goo.gl/ht4ceb
• 904 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ -105 https://goo.gl/RnCKzg
• 911 San Diego Padres +175 https://goo.gl/NyJs6j
• 916 Cleveland Indians -200
• 922 Texas Rangers -142 https://goo.gl/JQdNxs
• 920 Minnesota Twins -1½ +140

 

[bee172]

BOL

 

[mrpickem]

BOL

:shake: GL to you too

 

[mrpickem]

gonna roll with the sox

• 928 Boston Red Sox -105

 

[bee172]

gonna roll with the sox

• 928 Boston Red Sox -105

Like them too