What teams are playing for in Week 18, including motivational factors.
Must win teams:
Chargers -3 @ Raiders, SNF: Must win for both teams. Chargers win, they’re in the playoffs. Raiders win, they’re in the playoffs.
Rams -4.5 vs 49ers, Sun 4:25pm: Rams clinch the NFC West title and the 2 seed with a win. If the 49ers win, they’re in. They can still get in with a loss, but then they would have to rely on the Falcons beating the Saints.
Saints -3.5 @ Falcons, Sun 4:25pm: Must win game for the Saints. They can still make playoffs with a win and 49ers loss. Falcons have no chance, but who wouldn’t want to ruin your rival team’s playoff hopes.
Colts -15.5 @ Jags, Sun 1pm: Must win game for the Colts. They win, they’re in. The Jags have no motivational factors, but it should be noted that the Jags are 6-0 against the Colts since 2015 at Home.
Ravens -3.5 vs Steelers, Sun 1pm: Must win game for both teams, but both teams would need the Colts to lose as well in order to get in. Being that the games are at the same time they’ll both be going all out for the win.
Clinched playoffs, need win for playoff position:
Pats -6.5 @ Miami, Sun 4:25pm: The Pats can win the division with a win and a Bills loss. They also have a chance at the 3 & 4 seed if either the Titans or Bills lose. They will be playing their starters. However, since 2013 the Pats are 2-6 when playing in Miami. Also, in his 22 seasons Belichick is 10-11 in December/January games vs the Dolphins. Dolphins will be going all out for the upset.
Bills -16.5 vs Jets, Sun 4:25pm: The Bills have no chance for the 1 seed or 2 seed. After last night’s win KC & Tennessee are locked in for those. But they can clinch the 3 seed with a win, and a Bengals loss (who are resting Burrow and most likely other starters as well). They also will have a chance to clinch the AFC East with a win. The Jets, are the Jets.
Bucs -8 vs Carolina, Sun 4:25pm: The Bucs can’t go lower than the 4 seed, but a win and a Rams loss could secure the 2 seed. Arians also came out and said all the starters are playing “until the game is in hand”. So we know the Bucs are going to come out strong and try to get a big enough lead until they can rest their starters. For the Panthers, Sam Darnold has unfortunately infected the entire organization with Jets poison. And they will be paying him $18 mil next year…
Cardinals -5.5 vs Seattle, Sun 4:25pm: Cardinals can’t go lower than the 5 seed, but a win and Rams loss would clinch the NFC West and could move them as high as the 2 seed, depending on a lot of other matchups. Cardinals want to win this one. As for Seattle, Pete Carroll looks like the guy in a CIALIS commercial cruising into the sunset with the top down of his Chrysler Sebring while the narrator casually reads off a list of dangerous side effects. Oh yeah and Seattle is out of the playoffs.
Clinched playoffs, chance at a 1 seed:
Titans -10.5 @ Texans, Sun 1pm: If Titans win they get the 1 seed which comes with a 1st round bye and home field advantage throughout playoffs. If they lose, the Chiefs and Bengals both have a chance at the 1 seed. They’ll want to win this game. The Texans are led by MVP candidate, QB Davis Mills. All jokes aside Mills has been lights out at home this season. In 6 home starts, he's thrown 9 TD’s, 1 INT, and has a 106.2 rating. You think the Texans get manhandled with Deshaun Watson still out? Me too. Get it? Manhandled? Me too?…. Please clap.
Teams resting starters:
Packers -3 @ Lions, Sun 1pm: Packers have already clinched the 1 seed after their win against the Vikings last week. Rodgers says he’s playing but it’ll only be for a few series or too. Packers most likely resting starters. Especially since Dan Campbell has been training his lineman to bite kneecaps in Mike Vick’s backyard.
Browns -6 vs Cincinnati, Sun 1pm: After the Chiefs win the Bengals have no shot at the 1 or 2 seed. Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon have already been ruled out. The other Bengals starters will rest or at most see extremely limited work. Baker has been ruled out this week as well. Now some reports out that the Browns may rest or limit other starters. All in all will be a game I’ll stay away from. Under is interesting though. Cleveland has been held to 14 points or fewer in 5 of their last 7 games. That plus we have 2 backup QB’s facing each other.
Washington -7.5 @ Giants means nothing.
Vikings -5.5 vs Bears means nothing.
Having said all this, “Must Win” teams get way more hype than they deserve.
Since 2011, teams that have needed a Week 17 win to clinch a playoff spot have gone 13-19-2 ATS (40.6%). That includes a 7-12-1 ATS run over the last 5 years and was 1-5 ATS last year. In those 10 seasons, at least 1 team in a must-win spot has lost outright in 7 of those years.
11 of the 34 teams in a must-win spot lost outright to a team with nothing on the line.
