Week 18

[mrpickem]

Sunday 4-6 -2.9u
Week 17-15 +0.1u

• 951 Los Angeles Dodgers -134
• 951 Los Angeles Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Under 8½ -105
• 962 Milwaukee Brewers +105
• 969 Oakland Athletics +104
• 969 Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Under 11 -105

randoms...

monday records
bos 6-1, tb 8-2, oak 6-2, cle 8-3, sea 5-2
chw 1-8, kc 2-9, bal 2-7, sd 3-10, tex 3-8

record last 60 days
home tb 19-7, nyy 15-7, cubs 16-8, tor 15-9...bal 6-20, nym 7-19, kc 7-17
road lad 15-7, cub 18-7, az 16-9...min 5-19, chw 8-21, det 7-16

today's starters in 2018
top$$- severino 18-2, chacin 14-7, porcello 13-7, stripling 9-5
worse- gausman 5-14, urena 5-14, wheeler 6-12, lauer 5-11

severino 30-6 L365 +22.1u #1 money starter in the bigs
chacin 2nd at 21-12 +11.6u

:rollercoaster:

 

[mrpickem]

adds...

• 956 Miami Marlins +110
• 958 New York Mets -187
• 967 New York Yankees -1½ -160
• 975 Pittsburgh Pirates +253
• 957 San Diego Padres/New York Mets Under 7 -112
• 967 New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7 +100

 

[mrpickem]

MONDAY 4-5

Still made half unit thx to PIT +253. Mets scratched, but I added SD +170 and BOS RL late...just didn't get it posted here.

TUESDAY:

• 901 Atlanta Braves -127 https://goo.gl/jHFKxD
• 904 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +200 https://goo.gl/6qJ7CH
• 909 Arizona Diamondbacks +160 az 12-3 tue and 17-9 away L60 plus hendricks 16-19 L365 #6 fade
• 912 Milwaukee Brewers +100 https://goo.gl/1Q6BU7 / https://goo.gl/6qJ7CH
• 919 Oakland Athletics -103 https://goo.gl/ujpfs3 / https://goo.gl/jHFKxD
• 927 Houston Astros -1½ -101 https://goo.gl/QyrFBz
• 927 Houston Astros -156 https://goo.gl/6Gy2i5

randoms...

tuesday records
az 12-3, mil 11-4, sea 11-4, nyy 10-4, bos 10-5
bal 2-11, pit 3-10, det 4-10, chw 5-15, kc 5-10, nym 5-10

record last 60 days
home sea 21-8, tb 19-7, cubs 18-8, mil 19-10...sl 9-13, sd 9-13
road lad 16-7, oak 18-8, hou 17-8, bos 18-9, az 17-9...min 6-19, chw 9-21, det 8-16

today's starters in 2018
top$$- cole 16-4, bieber 6-1, montas 6-2, nola 14-6
worse- bailey 1-11, lauer 5-11, wheeler 6-12, suarez 6-10

Reds look solid based on walk off win after trailing after 8, but Bailey 1-11 on year...just cant back him

Good chance I'll be adding PIT and a few other later. :cheers3:

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Yay you were on Padres too. Those in-game steam plays are pretty good, you usually play them eh?

 

[2daBank]

Think if you like reds probably better off playing the over. I’d expect cards to hang a pretty good number vs Bailey, pretty much whole lineup other than ozuna has a ops better than .800 against him.

 

[tuck321]

Arizona is starting to get interesting Clay with ump 21.2 innings 1.66 ERA
On 6 this year 10 innings .90 and a tiny road ERA
4 days Hendricks low 4 1-4 record

 

[mrpickem]

moar...

• 925 Pittsburgh Pirates +172
• 903 Los Angeles Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Under 7½ -105
• 907 San Diego Padres/New York Mets Under 7½ -120
• 929 San Francisco Giants/Seattle Mariners Under 7½ -120

lol..put these in around 630 but never hit post

 

[mrpickem]

TUESDAY 7-3

Went 6-1 on original plays after great comebacks from PHI, MIL and OAK. My 2nd batch went 1-2 with scratch on Mets and even though I didn't submit it in time, I will include anyways since I'm also using this to track my plays/history. Nice to play a few dogs and win...made 6 units. Today it looks like I'm back to chalk...

WEDNESDAY:

• 953 Los Angeles Dodgers -127 https://goo.gl/J8soAe
• 958 Milwaukee Brewers -114 https://goo.gl/1Q6BU7
• 960 Chicago Cubs -119 Cubs crush lefties and Lester having great year
• 967 Boston Red Sox -174 9-2 after losing to division foe / 11-3 wed/ 18-10 road
• 969 Oakland Athletics -115 https://goo.gl/tFnBdi
• 973 Pittsburgh Pirates +160 https://goo.gl/4msrQD
• 977 Houston Astros -125 24-8 on road after win

Wanter to fade mets since they've been so bad vs lefty but just couldn't do it with c-rich...shields has allowed near twice the runs as skaggs over L10 starts 37-19 and I may play that one late..may consider a couple more(sea, tb) and a couple totals to come as well

randoms...

wednesday records
cle 12-3, bos 11-3, nyy 10-3, hou 10-4, pit 10-5
az 3-11, kc 3-11, bal 4-11, tor 4-11, sd 5-9

record last 60 days
home: sea 19-7, tb 18-6, mil 19-10, cubs 17-9, cle 18-10...kc 5-17
road: oak 19-8, hou 17-8, lad 16-8, az 17-9, bos 18-10...min 7-18, det 8-17, chw 10-20

record L90 days vs lefty
cubs 14-4, det 14-11, oak 13-11
nym 6-15, kc 9-14, chw 6-11, sea 11-14, az 11-14

today's starters in 2018
top$$- lester 16-4, leake 13-7, price 14-6, peralta 5-2, buehler 7-3
worse- roarke 5-14, shields 7-14, bundy 7-12, eovaldi 3-7

L365
lester 23-10 +10.1u #6 $$$ starter
price 14-6 +7u #11
leake 18-13 +7u #12

View attachment 33692

 

[T-Rex]

I’m all over the cubs and angels today. Also planning on taking SD early

 

[mrpickem]

I’m all over the cubs and angels today. Also planning on taking SD early

GL, I like all 3, just hard for me to back Richard as he has been terrible...may still take them though

 

[T-Rex]

GL, I like all 3, just hard for me to back Richard as he has been terrible...may still take them though

Yah, but it if it helps, just remember he is playing the Mets

 

[mrpickem]

Yeah, I know and he has decent day splits but even these mets have hit him well
View attachment 33706

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 962 Tampa Bay Rays +124 almost played earlier at +135...rays stout at home
• 964 Kansas City Royals -123 duffy better pitcher by far
• 976 Seattle Mariners -130 19-7 @home plus leake 13-7

All 3 games active for following query...basically bad offense vs good pitcher on getaway day
Poor hitting team(265 avg or less) on the road vs good AL pitcher(4.2-4.7 era) on WED cashes 61% over 15 years

View attachment 33710

notice eovaldi whip and home whip in particular..hasn't go the wins but has pitched effective
View attachment 33711

 

[mrpickem]

so in the history of sdql, only 169 times has a road team won 1st 2 series games as +160 or more and still >= +160 for game 3
No it's not the Pirates ... it's the chisox! and the play is to fade them on RL

line >= 160 and A and tS(W@line>160, N=2) = 2 and SG = 3
SU: 57-112 (-1.73, 33.7%) avg line: 182.2 / -204.1 on / against: -$898 / -$232 ROI: -5.3% / -0.7%
RL: 53-69 (-0.33, 43.4%) avg line: -118.5 / 106.0 on / against: -$2,809 / +$2,021 ROI: -19.0% / +15.7%


so i'm adding

• 972 Los Angeles Angels -1½ -110

gonna leave tots alone today

View attachment 33713

 

[mrpickem]

fuck, boston stole rays pitcher, but I'm still in with stanek

• 962 Tampa Bay Rays +130

 

[Gaius.T]

Mr. P: How has Lester fared after a stinker in the last years?

 

[mrpickem]

Mr. P: How has Lester fared after a stinker in the last years?

18-12 all time after allowing over 5 runs
5-1 last 6

 

[mrpickem]

WEDNESDAY 5-5

Pirates streak end, but good effort. Pushed on night at -.3u so I can live with that. Moving on...

THURSDAY:

• 908 Miami Marlins +181 nats 11-18 away L60, straus losing prop, straily has pitched well, fish 5-3 in div @home L8
• 912 San Francisco Giants -108 d.rod seems like real deal but miley can be formidable
• 911 Milwaukee Brewers/San Francisco Giants Under 8 -104 2 good starters vs <= avg offenses
• 921 Oakland Athletics -1½ +120 oak 7-3 thurs and 20-8 away L60
• 921 Oakland Athletics -130 https://goo.gl/pu6Rd4
• 921 Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Under 11 +100 tall total near 100 degrees with at least one good starter

D Rodriguez seems like the real deal, 8 starts, 7 quality starts, 10 apperances and only got hit twice, relief at coors and vs nats. splits look great, better at home, stronger as season progresses. I know it's a small sample, but I'm buying
View attachment 33748

considering fading gray and cobb as they are top 6 best fades L365, also hard to resist BOS with johnson looking to bouce back vs floundering twinks

randoms...

thursday records
atl 7-1, cubs 8-2, hou 8-2, phi 8-3, oak 7-3, nyy 7-3
fla 0-10, tor 2-9, sd 2-8, kc 2-5, nym 3-7, bal 4-9

record L60
home: bos 17-6, nyy 15-6, cubs 18-8, sf 17-9...bal 7-21
road: oak 20-8, lad 16-9, az 17-8 ...kv 6-16, chw 9-21, mil 7-15, min 8-17

record L90 vs lefty
atl 13-13, phi 7-9, min 10-13, sf 12-15
nym 7-15

today's starters in 2018
top$$- d.rodgz 7-1, johnson 4-1, sanchez 8-4
worse- cobb 3-15, covey 5-7, hill 5-7, straus 6-8(as -171 fav -6.3u)

L365
derik rodriguez 7-1 +6.2u #15 $$$ starter
cobb 7-19..#5 best fade +10.9u
gray 14-18 #6 fade +10.3u

 

[mrpickem]

one more angle for Gints
large sample returns 15% on ML and RL

league = NL and o:STDSERA <= 3 and ACD and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= .255 and season > 2012 and sA(SHRA) < .5
SU: 63-151 (-1.16, 29.4%) avg line: 148.4 / -162.0 on / against: -$6,099 / +$5,327 ROI: -28.5% / +15.4%
RL: 114-100 (0.31, 53.3%) avg line: -157.9 / 144.9 on / against: -$4,519 / +$3,261 ROI: -13.3% / +15.0%

 

[tuck321]

Oakland is 3-0 in a series where they were losing on the road and then won in the last inning twice.
Cahill is certainly not a great road pitcher but on 5 32 innings 2.25 ERA and Bartolo is playing at night against a team that has seen him a lot and has a very tough road series ahead. If you play a mark you take EVERYTHING

 

[tuck321]

No sure about the Miami game. Would like to play Miami but that 0-10 record on Thursday is tough to deal with

 

[mrpickem]

No sure about the Miami game. Would like to play Miami but that 0-10 record on Thursday is tough to deal with

Yeah tough call with fish, but they been doing well at home and Straus just avg lately.. +180 is value imo

and they have to win on thur eventually right?

 

[mrpickem]

well, looks like strausburg scratch to Dl and retread

Tommy Milone
being resurrected off scrap heap...lol

still will be on fish...just waiting on line

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 901 Arizona Diamondbacks -111 godley has pitched well lately and i love to fade chatwood
• 908 Miami Marlins +123 not value like vs straus but still on 'em

 

[mrpickem]

Shit nite last nite 1-6

Pens killed me in 3 games..it happens

Was driving most of day today, had to run down state

played a few without research, just off top of my head..friday has been worse day for me anyways so wtf

most of these already started so more for my own tracking

View attachment 33801

 

[mrpickem]

fri 4-3 and made a half unit

It's great to finally turn a profit on a Friday...yipee

SATURDAY:

• 901 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +100 https://goo.gl/N7DvKS
• 906 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -131 https://goo.gl/9nr3Di
• 906 Pittsburgh Pirates +133
• 907 Washington Nationals -146 https://goo.gl/h9wTsE
• 911 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +110 https://goo.gl/LsYJqh
• 911 Arizona Diamondbacks -157 https://goo.gl/6Gy2i5 /
• 922 Boston Red Sox -1½ -105
• 921 Minnesota Twins/Boston Red Sox Under 9½ +104
• 925 Texas Rangers +328 https://goo.gl/QZADfx / JV not profitable at these huge lines, hou 13-8 home after loss
• 928 Los Angeles Angels -123 https://goo.gl/Us58B8
• 929 Oakland Athletics +120 A's are the flavor of the month, despite rox 5-2 vs lefty at home(non-div) and 18-10 overall https://goo.gl/7xPC78

Hard to believe numbers...Verlander 5-7 at home this year. 93% ROI by fading him, also 3-3 after loss and 6-7 vs non divisional opponents
View attachment 33803

randoms...

saturday records
nyy 12-4, bos 12-5, cubs 13-6, phi 10-5, sea 12-6, oak 11-6
bal 3-15, chw 5-12, nym 5-11, kc 6-12, tor 6-10, cin 7-11

record L60
home: bos 17-6, nyy 15-5, laa 16-10, sf 17-11...bal 8-21
road: oak 21-9, lad 16-7, az 18-9 ...kc 5-17, tor 7-15, min 8-17, tb 9-18

record L90 vs lefty
cle 13-9, lad 16-12, col 18-13
atl 14-15, sl 10-12, was 8-11
az 11-15

today's starters in 2018
top$$- severino 18-3, chacin 15-7, porcello 14-7, ross 12-8
worse- gausman 5-15, verlander 13-9(-8.8u), degrom 8-12(-8u), clevinger 8-12(-7.7u)

L365
severino 29-7 +18.5u #1 $$$ starter by far!
chacin 21-12 +11.6u #2
degrom 11-20 -15.7u..#1 fade
gausman 10-22 -13.6u #3 fade

Still looking, but will probably find a way to get rays and yanks on my card along with a few more unders

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 904 Cincinnati Reds +114 https://goo.gl/hHaAeX
• 910 Atlanta Braves +116 https://goo.gl/hHaAeX
• 916 New York Yankees -450 I know, I'm crazy

Seen some stuff that would have probably kept me off nats, but since bet is in I'll ride it

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 922 Boston Red Sox -190 vs Minnesota Twins for 1st 5 Innings
• 905 New York Mets/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7½ -105
• 913 Milwaukee Brewers/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ +105
• 932 New York Yankees -1½ -155 Game 2

mrw..i seen nyy score

 

[mrpickem]

SATURDAY 11-7

Bittersweet as I hit a +328 dog but lost nyy -450..lol. I did make 5.2u on day so it was a good day. Since all my wagers risk 1u it adds weight to dogs since I have a hard time playing dogs consistently, this is my technique for adding value to the pups.

SUNDAY:

• 954 Miami Marlins +1½ -125 https://goo.gl/tNgPmi
• 963 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Over 8½ -110
• 965 Kansas City Royals +310 wth, happ has lost 4 str and moves to new club, royos suk but do hit lefty a little betta
• 968 Baltimore Orioles +102 https://goo.gl/VtfQue
• 971 Cleveland Indians -251 https://goo.gl/6Gy2i5
• 973 Texas Rangers +245 hou has lost last 2 as -300 or more plus -255 vs tex fri /
• 977 Seattle Mariners +104 https://goo.gl/Y3ocaZ

Stros have lost last 3 straight games when they were over 250 favs. Maybe their roid bottle did run dry
7/28 -355 loss with verlander
7/27 -255 loss with keuchel
7/15 -385 loss w/verlander

randoms...

sunday records
bos 13-4, atl 10-4, lad 12-5, oak 11-6, sf 11-6
col 4-12, mil 4-12, tex 5-12, kc 5-10, det 6-11, cin 6-11

record L60
home: bos 20-7, nyy 17-8, cubs 19-9, laa 17-10...bal 9-22, sd 9-15
road: lad 19-9, oak 21-10 ...kc 7-19, tor 8-18, , min 9-20, tb 10-19, nym 9-17

record L90 vs lefty
lad 17-12, hou 17-13, mil 9-8
az 11-15, kc 9-16, chw 6-12, laa 6-18, tor 6-21

today's starters in 2018
top$$- Gonzales 14-6, montas 7-2, eflin 8-5, hellickson 9-5
worse- hendricks 8-13, urena 5-15, bundy 7-12, wheeler 7-12

L365
hendricks 15-20 -15u..#2 best fade

 

[mrpickem]

decent afternoon 5-1 so can I have another

• 964 St. Louis Cardinals +116 https://goo.gl/357spG