Week 18 What Are We Learning

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Trevor looked superb today.

Wentz was uninspiring to say the least. Some people lost serious trust in him after today‘s multi-pick debacle. But give credit to Jax‘s D, starting with its d-line‘s ability to crash inside and collapse the pocket

Stafford comes out responding to critics.



Post your thoughts!
 
I love Week 18!

Rog was creaming his pants tonight

Mcdc teams play hard!

The Colts, lmao

Some sketchy playoff teams....
 
Never talk yourself into betting a lot of games on the final weekend of the NFL season. Just don't do it.

Just. Don't. Do it.

I'm happy to say I've basically learned this lesson, yesterday was pretty light for me. But I still almost took the o-fer if the Raiders don't actually kick the FG. Thankfully that makes 1-2 far more manageable.

But thing that sticks out to me about yesterday, well one of them, is the same thing we talked about all the way before the season. Quarterbacks, quarterbacks, quarterbacks. This is a QB league today and has been for some years now. But if you're betting on the worse of two QBs in the game, you better have a really good reason to do it.

For the teams not in the playoffs, some of this can be traced directly back to either the lack of a real QB (Washington, Houston, Carolina, Detroit, etc.) or bad QB play in specific spots to lose you enough games throughout the year that now you're not even in the playoffs (Indy, LAC). And obviously some of that is injury—like New Orleans or Baltimore (or Denver to a point if you think Teddy B is a good enough game manager with that defense). You see what I'm saying, quarterbacks.

But I bring it up because I think it applies directly to the playoff games this week.

Will all of these hit/cover the number, I imagine the odds are against that, but just look at the matchups:
  • Carr vs. Burrow
  • Allen vs. Mac Jones
  • Hurts vs. Brady
  • Jimmy G. vs. Dak
  • Ben vs. Mahomes
  • Murray vs. Stafford

Obviously the spread is the great equalizer, but a couple of these numbers—just based on who's under center—offer value imo. For example, I'm not betting Stafford over Murray in any way. Ditto Jalen Hurts vs. Tom Brady. (No offense, Jalen, you'll be back.) Now, the number in that TB game can push you off, but Dak over Jimmy G—who's not 100%—at -3? Sure. Sign me up.

Anyway, two topics for the thread really.

Which teams who are in the post-season are set up to do well and of the teams that aren't, what do they need to do to the roster/staff/front office to get there next year. Some teams are positioned better than others. And, of the teams on the outside looking in, the others seem to be the ones who've already fired their coaches and are pressing the reset button again.
 
Call me a homer or a native of upstate NY, but of the teams playing this week I think the brackets broke well for Dallas and Buffalo. I did not want to see Kyler in Texas again so getting a statue with a bad thumb in Jimmy G is great. The biggest worry is stopping the Deebo runs and controlling the edge has been a weakness for Dallas. Then a rematch with Brady without Godwin and AB may be enough to tilt the result from Week 1 in their favor. And not facing Rodgers until the conference final would get them past the divisional round stigma and maybe enough confidence to finally take his belt.

The Bills could've been chasing Herbert in an aerial showdown but instead get the 3rd round against rookie Mac and a Pats team they know they can beat. Then they go to KC where they've already won this year, and if things break right they might be home for the conference final.

The Bengals also drew pretty well. Vegas is not a pushover but now they travel on short rest which is a big disadvantage, while the Bengals rested many of their key players. And I may be crazy but I think they match up well with the Titans, they certainly have the firepower to go toe-to-toe for 60 minutes.
 
I agree with @Gandolf about who it breaks well for. I think it breaks well for AZ in a way, too. They've been a mess at home, but they're great on the road. And you want me to back Matt Stafford in a playoff game where there are actual expectations? Hard pass. As the pressure has gone up late in the season, he's been really suspect. Which, if you think about it, tracks with his career.

Stafford is great when the game is out of hand or they're ahead by a lot. Because there's no pressure. He can just throw it. But when something meaningful is on the line, he starts to feel that pressure around his neck. I hate this draw for LA. Honestly, as much as I would have liked to see LA if I were the Eagles, that was the draw they should have wanted too. Basically a rookie QB vs. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey? Good luck. But Stafford decided to underthrow a ball and put it up for grabs in OT. So here they are.

Good draw for Cincy, Buffalo, and Tampa. And KC really. This is a horrible matchup for Pittsburgh. The only thing worse for them would have been Buffalo with revenge.
 
Gandolf said:
Call me a homer or a native of upstate NY, but of the teams playing this week I think the brackets broke well for Dallas and Buffalo. I did not want to see Kyler in Texas again so getting a statue with a bad thumb in Jimmy G is great. The biggest worry is stopping the Deebo runs and controlling the edge has been a weakness for Dallas. Then a rematch with Brady without Godwin and AB may be enough to tilt the result from Week 1 in their favor. And not facing Rodgers until the conference final would get them past the divisional round stigma and maybe enough confidence to finally take his belt.

The Bills could've been chasing Herbert in an aerial showdown but instead get the 3rd round against rookie Mac and a Pats team they know they can beat. Then they go to KC where they've already won this year, and if things break right they might be home for the conference final.

The Bengals also drew pretty well. Vegas is not a pushover but now they travel on short rest which is a big disadvantage, while the Bengals rested many of their key players. And I may be crazy but I think they match up well with the Titans, they certainly have the firepower to go toe-to-toe for 60 minutes.
Click to expand...
It does break very well for Dallas if they win this week, which is a big gamble. Tampa is vulnerable to Dallas.

I guess I see it very differently for Buffalo. They get an emotional match with New England. Chiefs have a very favorable first round game. Chiefs are a much different team than when they first played. Arguably the Bills are too and not in a good way. I just don't see a hypothetical path of New England @KC @Titans in which the Bills win all these games. If they are lucky enough to reach Nashville, they'll have nothing in the tank and they'll get smoked.

I just don't see a team that struggles to stop the run and run the ball beating a team with KC's experience or the Titans.
 
By the way, I'd just like it to be known that while this was also probably true yesterday, with NY firing their coach today it is now really beyond question to say that the Philadelphia Eagles have easily the second best coach in their division right now. Which I don't think anybody thought they would be able to say at the start of this year.
 
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