Week 18 Discussion Thread

Sounds like another Huntley game for the Dolphins. Bills to play Allen maybe 1Q, balanced against the Pats maybe starting Milton. GB, who knows? Commanders say they want to win the game. KC completely in the tank for their game against the Broncos. Chargers will give an effort if the Steelers lose to Cincy and there is a chance for them to get Houston.
 
Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh: “If we were locked into a seed-we’re not locked into a seed. We’re playing to move up. We’d love to be in the fifth seed. That gives you a chance to have a playoff game at home. It could even be in the divsional round at home, and the championship game at home. That’s where things stand for us. So, plan is win. And that’s been our mindset from the very beginning. Win the next game, so that’s where we’re at.”
 
There are typically teams that throw in the towel for Week 18. Is there any reason to expect the Patriots to show up after losing 40-7 last week at home?
 
Teams I’ll be backing:

-Ravens in some fashion, Browns are corpse
-Bucs in all fashions, Saints are a corpse and Bucs are humming
-Bills….Pats lose to keep 1 seed, might sit Maye
-Texans….Titans need an L for draft spot, I think Ryans wants to see a good effort heading into playoffs
-Seattle…as stated above, McVay resting everyone
 
KJ said:
All has to do with whether the current staff will be back next season and in this case the Patriots staff will be so they might take knees from the opening kickoff
Click to expand...
This. If you’re Mayo, and know you will be back next year, then you do the right thing for the organization because you will reap the benefit of the #1 pick. If you think you’re being fired then you DGAF. Only problem is when the Bills pull everyone, what’s the score? Could the Pats accidentally win?
 
aplous said:
Teams I’ll be backing:

-Ravens in some fashion, Browns are corpse
-Bucs in all fashions, Saints are a corpse and Bucs are humming
-Bills….Pats lose to keep 1 seed, might sit Maye
-Texans….Titans need an L for draft spot, I think Ryans wants to see a good effort heading into playoffs
-Seattle…as stated above, McVay resting everyone
Click to expand...
Like all of these. Also interested in the Commanders potentially, they want to hold on to their seed and Cowboys look like ass without Lamb.
 
Nick Sirianni says they’re going to rest some guys on Sunday. Some will rest, some will be in reserve roles.

Saquon Barkley will “probably” be someone who rests, he says.
 
.@Titans QBs Will Levis and Mason Rudolph are splitting reps in practice evenly, per Brian Callahan. ... He won't announce starter until the end of the week
 
Feels like GB has been curiously silent. Line indicates they will play starters at least some of the time, but haven’t seen any indication from them yet. Brown has incentive to get them to play hard, such as it is.
 
Curious of any contract incentives, won't have time to dig that deep until tomorrow probably but anyone who know of any please post em
 

Baker Mayfield Week 18 Contract Incentives​

Baker Mayfield has had a great year which will likely earn him lots of extra money.

Mayfield’s contract awards $500,000 for finishing either top 10 in the league or top five in the NFC in each of the following categories:

  • Passer Rating (Currently 4th)
  • Passing Touchdowns (Currently 2nd)
  • Passing Yards (Currently 2nd)
  • Completion % (Currently 2nd)
  • Yards per Attempt (Currently 5th)
It looks almost certain that Mayfield will bring home the entire $2,500,000 even if he underperforms in Week 18.

Mike Evans Week 18 Contract Incentives​

The Buccaneers have been riddled with injuries this season, and Mike Evans was one of their biggest losses.

Evans missed three games in the middle of the season, which has been a roadblock to him hitting his bonus.

Evans needs to hit 70 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns for a $3 million contract bonus.

In addition to the money, Evans is looking to maintain a historic streak.

He has reached the 1,000-yard mark in every season since 2014 and needs 85 yards to continue that streak.

The Bucs star wideout will also need 5 receptions in Week 18 to earn his bonus.

Tony Pollard Week 18 Contract Incentives​

Another player who suffered from injuries this season was Tony Pollard, who has been limited by several issues and ultimately sat out last week.

He can earn $250,000 if he surpasses 1,100 rushing yards, $200,000 for scoring 7 rushing touchdowns, and another $200,000 for 60 receptions.

Pollard is questionable to return in Week 18.

If he can play, he needs 83 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, and 19 receptions to reach those bonuses.

He will need to play and put together one of his best performances of the season against the Texans to earn these incentives.

Geno Smith Week 18 Contract Incentives​

Geno Smith’s contract incentives are based on him outperforming his 2022 stats with the Seahawks.

Smith receives $2 Million for each of the following:

  • 4,282 Passing Yards: Currently 4,097
  • 30 Passing Touchdowns: Currently 17
  • 69.76% Completion Rate: Currently 70.2%
  • 100.87 Passer Rating: Currently 90.5
  • 10 Wins: Currently 9
An additional $5M escalator is available if all five categories are exceeded in a season, but that is not going to happen this year.

The 185 yards Smith needs to top his passing yard mark is certainly doable, and he should have a good chance to earn the bonus for completion rate, as well.

J.K. Dobbins Week 18 Contract Incentives​

Through just 12 games, J.K. Dobbins has accumulated 842 rushing yards.

The missed time has hurt his pocket since he receives $30,000 for each game that he is active, but he has a chance to get some of that money back through incentives

The Chargers lead back will receive $150,000 for reaching each of the following season milestones:

  • 600 rushing yards
  • 750 rushing yards
  • 900 rushing yards
  • 1,050 rushing yards
  • 1,200 rushing yards
He has already hit two of those marks and needs just another 58 yards to reach 900.

Dobbins does have a 160-yard rushing day on his resume, but even that would not be enough to reach the 1,050-yard mark.



www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Week 18 Contract Incentives and Betting Opportunities

Learn which NFL players are close to reaching contract incentives. Which NFL players have extra motivation in Week 18? Betting and DFS takeaways.
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
 
Can’t find the prop thread for this week.

Gotta love Friermuth ov 37.5 rec, can’t believe his number not higher as we know this gonna be a passing game and Cincy has nobody to check him in middle.

Warren ov 23.5 rec. this feels like a late Xmas gift, I’ll go down swinging at this number all day every day in what gonna be a high scoring game!
 
2daBank said:
Can’t find the prop thread for this week.

Gotta love Friermuth ov 37.5 rec, can’t believe his number not higher as we know this gonna be a passing game and Cincy has nobody to check him in middle.

Warren ov 23.5 rec. this feels like a late Xmas gift, I’ll go down swinging at this number all day every day in what gonna be a high scoring game!
Click to expand...

I’d obviously like some chase and higgens but ain’t no discount on their numbers! Prob be just as smart simply playing burrow over or tds. Can get plus money on burrow to throw 3 tds and quite frankly don’t see them running it in. Plus money for burrow throwing 3 tds in a must win if say a slam dunk.

I like Henry over 96.5 rushing in other game. Ravens still playing to lock up division inthjnk? The spread being 20 and everyone playing kinda screams they playing for something
 
I like Lamar under 26.5 passes. Don’t really see a world he needs to throw that much. Ravens d has drastically improved as the season has went on, cle still starting a guy who should be in the Canadian football league! I said it when they did it and been proven right it was a joke to bench Winston for DTR, that the clowns tho. They have scored 9 total points since putting him in at starter. No reason Lamar has to throw more than 18-20x here, him and Henry should dominate this game and Browns offense ain’t gonna push them to have to score.
 
Feel like burrow at plus money to throw 3 makes most sense instead of trying to figure out higgens and chase who both lined pretty high. Friermuth a no brainer, he going over 37.5, don’t even think it a question. Bungals d doesn’t have the ability to adjust they just out their hoping to not be embarrassed!
 
I will put one Benjamin Franklin on the ORIOLES team total starting today and roll it over every weekend including the Super Bowl
 
Fwiw the Action anytime TD props are

Bateman
Moore
Burrow
Austin

They've been pretty good lately at least
 
2daBank said:
I like Lamar under 26.5 passes. Don’t really see a world he needs to throw that much. Ravens d has drastically improved as the season has went on, cle still starting a guy who should be in the Canadian football league! I said it when they did it and been proven right it was a joke to bench Winston for DTR, that the clowns tho. They have scored 9 total points since putting him in at starter. No reason Lamar has to throw more than 18-20x here, him and Henry should dominate this game and Browns offense ain’t gonna push them to have to score.
Click to expand...
Excellent idea here
 
B.A.R. said:
Excellent idea here
Click to expand...

Not a play I make much but seemed really strong in this spot. Think the juice to under has taken off since I bet it. He has only went over this number 7x all year, 2 of them vs Cincy which were obvious shootouts, 2 of them the 1st 2 weeks of year, once against another high powered Philly offense, then one the Steelers games in which they beg Lamar to throw and take the run away. Really tough to envision Browns offense capable ebough to force them to need points and you would think Henry and Lamar on ground be plenty. I tried playing devils advocate with myself and honestly only reason I could see him throwing more than that if they trying for a late mvp push but I don’t really think they worried bout all that.
 
So I did Lamar under attempts straight then parlayed in 2 teamers with

Burrow ov 2.5 tds

Friermuth ov 37.5 rec

Warren ov 23.5 rsc

And a few nba plays
 
Lamar with a chance to break the league’s single-season record for passer rating.

Maybe some incentive there for him to throw on the Browns corpse.
 
Efficiency far more important to passer rating so doesn’t concern me much. Long as he doesn’t get off to awful start think more likely the less is more approach. He could easily throw for 200+ and couple tds far before 27 attempts I would think
 
Slim Pickens today with the geniuses at nfl making this stupid 17 game schedule we have all of 2-3 games that hold any meaning. Way to go nfl!!

Gotta look at Bucs players. Baker might be lined low at 260.5 but kinda worry this game so non competative he might not need to throw for more than 250. That leaves Bucky but they set a pretty strong number on him around 90 rush and 20 rec, and freaking -200 for a td. I just don’t know if saints offense can give us enough push back to trust playing any these numbers? Obviously Bucs could blow by every one of these if need be it just doesn’t seem likely they need to do that much to win by double digits. Baker td passes only 1.5 but again big juice. Feel like we could prob use his over tds, Bucky td, to start a parlay just gotta find other legs we like?
 
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