smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Sides: 41-30-2 +8.02
Totals: 17-21-1 -7.71
Tease 9-7-1 -3.0
Half: 5-3 +1.25
Player Props: 22-14 +2.13
94-69 +0.69 units
Week 17 is just as much about which organizations are stable and which are not. To that end I always add an extra column to my week 17 worksheet: Team Stability. I rank them from 1-5, and decide if there is enough there to make an adjustment to my pointspread. A small sample of what I consider:
Car/Atl
My line: Car -5 44
Plays: ATL +6 (1) and ATL +210 (.25)
About 3 weeks ago, I noted that ATL has moved past the fact that their season was not going to meet the expectations, they started to play better. Starting with the last weekend in Nov, this ATL team has improved dramatically over the one we saw at the end of Oct through the end of Nov. ATL is very capable of upsetting Carolinas quest for the bye week. The coaching staff and GM are in place, and they have revenge on their mind from a 34-10 trouncing they took back in Carolina on 11/3. A Panthers win wraps up the south title a well as a bye. The 6 to 6.5 is attractive here.
Gb/Chi
MY line: Chi -1 53
BEARS +3 (1) and BEARS +125 (.50)
Over reaction city here. Start with the Bears getting hammered by Phila last Sunday night. The Bears are not that bad no are the Eagles that good. Next we have Aaron Rodgers playing. I’m sure the 7 week layoff and gusty winds up to 25 MPH making it feel like 10 degrees will have zero impact on Rodgers. Both defenses stink, I’ll take the offense that has played together, and played together well for a longer period of time.
Phi/Dal
My line: Phila -4.5 51
DALLAS +7 (1) an DALLAS +230 (.25)
This game is very similar to the Bears/GB game. A divisional matchup to win the division. Orton has played in a long time, and I really don’t know what to expect from him, but if they commit, the girls could run with Murray. This thing either stays close or the Eagles just blow the doors of the Jerry dome.
Jax/Ind
My line: Ind -7 43
JACKSONVILLE +10.5 (1.25)
Colts secured a home playoff game with a win in KC last week. They have an outside shot at a bye week, but they need tings to break their way. I think the KC win took a good amount out of this team. Moreover, the Jags are exactly the type of “bad” team I’m looking to back in week 17. We know the coach and GM will be there next year. The guys taking the field on Sunday know they are being evaluated, so we know the effort is going to be there. Still, if the Jags were not playing decent football as of late, I would pass, but they are playing better ball, so I’ll take the shot getting 2 scores.
May have a couple more....GL.
Totals: 17-21-1 -7.71
Tease 9-7-1 -3.0
Half: 5-3 +1.25
Player Props: 22-14 +2.13
94-69 +0.69 units
Week 17 is just as much about which organizations are stable and which are not. To that end I always add an extra column to my week 17 worksheet: Team Stability. I rank them from 1-5, and decide if there is enough there to make an adjustment to my pointspread. A small sample of what I consider:
- Ownership and their relationship w/ GM and Coach
- GM and coach stability: Are both going to be there next year? Is one in and the other out?
- Team motivation: Tied more so than the scenario laid out above than their current position where playoffs are concerned.
Car/Atl
My line: Car -5 44
Plays: ATL +6 (1) and ATL +210 (.25)
About 3 weeks ago, I noted that ATL has moved past the fact that their season was not going to meet the expectations, they started to play better. Starting with the last weekend in Nov, this ATL team has improved dramatically over the one we saw at the end of Oct through the end of Nov. ATL is very capable of upsetting Carolinas quest for the bye week. The coaching staff and GM are in place, and they have revenge on their mind from a 34-10 trouncing they took back in Carolina on 11/3. A Panthers win wraps up the south title a well as a bye. The 6 to 6.5 is attractive here.
Gb/Chi
MY line: Chi -1 53
BEARS +3 (1) and BEARS +125 (.50)
Over reaction city here. Start with the Bears getting hammered by Phila last Sunday night. The Bears are not that bad no are the Eagles that good. Next we have Aaron Rodgers playing. I’m sure the 7 week layoff and gusty winds up to 25 MPH making it feel like 10 degrees will have zero impact on Rodgers. Both defenses stink, I’ll take the offense that has played together, and played together well for a longer period of time.
Phi/Dal
My line: Phila -4.5 51
DALLAS +7 (1) an DALLAS +230 (.25)
This game is very similar to the Bears/GB game. A divisional matchup to win the division. Orton has played in a long time, and I really don’t know what to expect from him, but if they commit, the girls could run with Murray. This thing either stays close or the Eagles just blow the doors of the Jerry dome.
Jax/Ind
My line: Ind -7 43
JACKSONVILLE +10.5 (1.25)
Colts secured a home playoff game with a win in KC last week. They have an outside shot at a bye week, but they need tings to break their way. I think the KC win took a good amount out of this team. Moreover, the Jags are exactly the type of “bad” team I’m looking to back in week 17. We know the coach and GM will be there next year. The guys taking the field on Sunday know they are being evaluated, so we know the effort is going to be there. Still, if the Jags were not playing decent football as of late, I would pass, but they are playing better ball, so I’ll take the shot getting 2 scores.
May have a couple more....GL.
